Cotton Bowl Preview

(#20, #24)Ole Miss (8-4) vs (#8, #8)Texas Tech(11-1)
Cotton Bowl
Dallas, TX
January 2, 1:00 PM
All Time Series: Tied 2-2
All Time Bowl Records: Ole Miss 19-12, Texas Tech 10-20-1
Wednesday’s Line: Texas Tech -4.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Texas Tech: 536.2 ypg (4th), 44.6 ppg (4th)
Ole Miss: 398.4 ypg (37th), 30.8 ppg (32nd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Texas Tech: 371.6 ypg (72nd), 26.3 ppg (66th)
Ole Miss: 294.8 ypg (14th), 17.8 ppg (14th)

In what should be one of the best bowls of the season, streaking Ole Miss takes on potent Texas Tech in the final Cotton Bowl played at the fairgrounds in Dallas. It’s the 5th meeting between the 2 schools, and a homecoming of sorts for Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, a native Texan. Both teams enter the game hot as the Rebels have won 5 straight games and the Red Raiders are 11-1, though suffered a humbling blowout to Oklahoma.

If the Rebels are going to stay in this game, they’ll need to play the same kind of defense they’ve played over the last 4 games where they’ve given up just 20 points and pitched 2 shutouts. The defensive line – led by All-American Peria Jerry – has been unblockable. It will be a tough task though, as Texas Tech ranks 5th in the nation in protecting the QB, giving up just 11 sacks in 12 games. The Red Raiders also lead the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed (2.95 per game) while the Rebels lead the country in tackles for loss with 8.92 per game.

The majority of TTU’s yards come after the catch. QB Harrell throws a lot of quick, underneath passes and screens and lets his talented WRs do the rest. It will be a true test for the Ole Miss defensive front to disrupt Tech’s rhythm.

On the flip side, the Red Raiders will have their hands full stopping the Rebel attack. QB Snead has really come on in the second half of the season and the “Wild Rebel” has been an effective option for the Rebels as well. TTU hasn’t played against an offense like Ole Miss’ this year, so it will be interesting to see how they adjust.

If you want to stop Texas Tech, you’ve got to get pressure on Harrell. He’s shown to be average throwing the ball on the run. Outside of USC and Oklahoma, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more dominant defensive line in the country than the Rebels’. While the Ole Miss secondary is average at best, the front 7 will be able to get plenty of pressure and force TTU turnovers. Look for the Rebs’ remarkable turnaround season to be capped with an upset of the Red Raiders in Dallas.

Ole Miss 31, Texas Tech 30

The Sporting News Rates the Bowls

The Sporting News has ranked the Bowl Games 1-34 and it’s a little different from Rivals' picks. Here’s how TSN sees the SEC games.

1. BCS Title Game
There’s major pressure on Florida’s young defense and Oklahoma’s banged-up group to make a handful of stops and force a turnover or two.

3. Cotton Bowl
A curious case here for erratic Tech, which could roll with 10 touchdowns or fold after a poor regular-season finish. Ole Miss, with road wins over Florida and LSU, won’t be intimidated by the Red Raiders.

10. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Nothing like Paul Johnson’s triple option in the background to ring in the new year.

13. Sugar Bowl
Smell a barnburner? You’re not alone.

15. Capital One Bowl
This might be the last go-around for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno at Georgia

22. Outback Bowl
The game’s a scout’s dream and a fan’s nightmare.

30. Liberty Bowl
Not much talent on the field for this one.

32. Music City Bowl
What time does Opryland close New Year’s Eve?

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Thursday Afternoon Linkage

* It’s meaningless and inherently flawed, but quick… name the SEC school ranked highest in the New America Foundation’s 2nd Annual BCS Academic Standings. For the 99% of you that said Vanderbilt, you’re wrong. It’s Ole Miss.

The NFA’s formula starts with the team's most recent federal graduation rate, which includes four classes of players who entered college between 1998 and 2001 and graduated within six years of initial enrollment. Then, each team gains or loses points based on (A) the gap between the team's graduation rate and the overall school's graduation rate and (B) the gap between the team's black-white player graduation rate disparity and the overall school's disparity. Finally, the team gains or loses points if its Academic Progress Rate exceeds or falls below the Division I-A median.

* Chris Low runs down the Top 25 players in the SEC. Alabama leads the way with 7. Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss check in with 3 a piece, while LSU and Tennessee have 2 each.

* Auburn’s questionable hire of Gene Chizik has raised more than a few eyebrows across the SEC and the blogosphere ( I know, who knew?). Pat Forde grades the recent SEC hires and drops this gem:

Maybe Chizik will be the next Bill Parcells -- he went 3-8 in his first year as a head coach, at the Air Force Academy in 1978 -- before turning out all right. But until that happens, this has the makings of the worst hire in SEC history.

Dan Wetzel shares a similar viewpoint.

* Jason Whitlock is dead on again. While race may or may not have been a determining factor in Auburn’s passing on the more-talented Turner Gill for the Ed Orgeron Redux that is Gene Chizik, Auburn may not have been the right fit for Gill at this point of his career.

Andy Kennedy arrested

Thanks to the people who emailed about Ole Miss basketball coach Andy Kennedy's excitement earlier this morning. For those who haven't seen it, Kennedy was arrested this morning in Cincinnati and charged with misdemeanor assault of a 25 year old cab driver, whom he allegedly struck with a closed fist and yelled racial epithets at.

While all the facts have yet to come out, there are conflicting stories, so there's hardly a need to crucify the guy just yet. A Cincinnati beat writer who covered Kennedy in his days on Huggins' staff had this to say:

Yep, actually talked to Someone Who Would Know just a few minutes ago. He said the cabbie dropped a racial slur on a member of Andy's party as they got into the cab... AK and his four companions, all his assistant coaches, got out of the cab and hailed another. As they were on their way back to their hotel, cops pulled them over and charged AK with assault.

My source said AK assaulted no one and has 4 eyewitnesses to swear to it. Given what I know of Kennedy from having covered him as a head coach and as Huggins' top assistant, I believe this account.

While it's quick and easy to judge Kennedy in this situation, remember the Duke lacrosse scandal. It's not public yet what actually transpired last night in Cincinnati. Kennedy "emphatically denies" the assault and making any racial slurs. It may be a few hours or a few days before all the facts are out.

It's hard to imagine that Kennedy will coach tonight against Louisville though. Ole Miss was a prohibitive underdog (~15 points) before this went down. It will be tough for his young team to stay focused after this distraction. As a Southerner, I'd like to believe the incident didn't go down as originally reported, with Kennedy lobbing racial slurs at the man as he pounded in the face with a "closed fist". I'd like to think reality lies closer to the version suggested by the Cincy beat writer.

Only time will tell.

***UPDATE***
Okay, so Andy Kennedy will coach tonight, which makes me think even more that this is blown out of proportion. Kennedy obviously refused to comment about the situation, but given the Ole Miss AD is allowing him to coach tonight, there must be something that points to a big misunderstanding.

***UPDATE AGAIN***
So now this is just getting weird. According to the Jackson Clarion Ledger, the situation that Kennedy described to his brother is completely different from the police report.

***UPDATE THE THIRD***
If this is true, it's a remarkable 180 from this morning. It's becoming more and more like a smaller version of the Duke Lacrosse scandal. Pull on the heartstrings of an overly PC, scoop-hungry media a bit and you can accuse anyone you want of of anything you want at anytime.

A Closer Look at the AP All-American Teams

With all the talk of the SEC being down a bit this year, only the Big 12 landed more players (18) on the 2008 AP All-American teams than the SEC’s 14. Not surprisingly, the Big 12 is heavy on the offensive side of the ball, landing 14 offensive players on the 3 teams. The SEC was second with 7. The ACC led all conferences with 9 All-American defensive players. The SEC was second with 7.

Here’s a look at how it breaks down by conference, by All-America team, 1st – 3rd.


While football is undoubtedly a bona fide team sport, you’ve got to have individual talent to win. The argument can rage for days about whether the Big 12 offenses are that good or the defenses are that bad. The exact opposite question is applied to the SEC. Unfortunately, there’s no answers to that here, or anywhere until the bowl games are played.

As a side note, SECSports lists only 13 SEC players on its website, but they missed LSU’s Herman Johnson, which is remarkably tough to do, given his stature.

Rivals ranks the SEC Bowl Games

Rivals has ranked the bowl games from 1-34 in terms of intrigue and interest. With 68 teams making the postseason these days, there are quite a few games that even alumni probably can’t get up for. Of the 8 SEC games, 5 rank pretty high (top 13). The other 3… not so much.

Here’s how Rivals sees it:

1. BCS National Championship Game, Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1):
It's for the national title, which makes it No. 1 on this list. The past two title games have been decided by a total of 41 points. That may be the number of points needed to win this one.

6. Sugar Bowl, Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0):
Utah has a lot to prove, despite its unbeaten record. Will Alabama suffer any kind of hangover from its SEC title game loss?

7. Capital One Bowl, Georgia (9-3) vs. Michigan State (9-3):
An intriguing Big Ten-SEC matchup. Michigan State can't pass, but TB Javon Ringer had a great season and Georgia's defense has had trouble against the run. And can Michigan State slow Georgia TB Knowshon Moreno? In their three losses, the Spartans' defense was run over.

9. Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1):
Ole Miss has a good front four, and if you can harass Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, he becomes an average quarterback. But only one team was really able to harass him this season. Watch Ole Miss junior DE Greg Hardy, who could declare for the draft. Hardy could make himself quite a bundle of money with a big game.

13. Chick-fil-A Bowl, Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5):
This basically is a home game for the Yellow Jackets, who will be playing a few miles from their campus in downtown Atlanta. LSU comes in having lost three of their past four. If the Tigers' defense doesn't awaken from its season-ending slumber, LSU is going to finish 7-6 one season after winning the national title.

22. Outback Bowl, Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5):
Iowa runs well but can't throw. South Carolina runs poorly and would like to throw but can't. At least both play good defense.

26. Music City, Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6):
Vanderbilt comes in having lost six of its past seven. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us. BC, by the way, holds the nation's longest current bowl winning streak, at eight games.

27. Liberty Bowl, East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6):
Kentucky comes in having lost three in a row, four of five and six of eight. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us.

While Chris Low (ESPN) doesn’t delve into all 34 games, he ranks the SEC games in that same order. From a neutral standpoint, that’s probably how I’d have to rank them as well. On a national scale, I think the Outback should be higher than the 22nd most interesting bowl, but I agree with its pecking order in the rank of SEC games.

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Thoughts from an eventful weekend in the SEC

* First things first: Love him or hate him, it was the end of an era as the final seconds ticked off the clock in Neyland Stadium Saturday night. While Fulmer was certainly an easy target, his record - particularly early in his tenure - speaks for itself.

That said, I'm not sold that Lane Kiffin is the right fit yet at a BCS school. He's assembling an impressive staff, but the SEC East is hardly the ideal scenario to learn the ropes.

* Though his 5-year performance certainly merited it, I'm surprised Mississippi State pulled the plug on the Croominator. While his hiring was certainly an intriguing story for a week or two, it was hard not to tire of the media adoration even as his teams failed miserably on the field, mostly due to his poor recruiting and strategizing. In his 5 years in Starkville the Bulldogs never ranked in the top 100 in total offense.

In his swan song Saturday in Oxford, the Bulldogs had 14 drives: 12 punts and 2 interceptions. The never had a drive of more than 14 yds. I'm not sure who the Bulldogs are going to be able to afford, but aside from being probation-free, the program is in no better shape than when Croom was hired.

* The dominating performance Saturday capped a remarkable 4-game run to close the season for Ole Miss. They've given up just 20 points over the last 4 games and set a school record with 11 sacks Friday afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Capital One Bowl select the streaking Rebels over the porous Georgia Bulldogs.

* Speaking of UGA, that was just ugly yesterday. The Bulldog offense certainly got the preseason memo about the talent level of this team. It seems though it never reached the defensive coaches. The 2008 'Dawgs are more reminiscent of 2007's Florida team than either program would want to admit.

* Tommy Tuberville will be the first to admit that he's the primary reason for Auburn's disappointing 5-win season this year. While it's certainly not the season he or Auburn fans, I'm not sure it merits a pink slip. His recent track record is significantly better than Fulmer or Croom's is. But with the ridiculous pressure he's under - particularly with Saban's success at Alabama, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up somewhere next year. The Auburn fanbase isn't as fractured as Arkansas' was before Nutt left, but it's certainly within walking distance.

* I think LSU fans were a lot happier with "2-loss Les" than "5-Loss Les". It's ugly when you don't have a serviceable QB in this league.

* Spurrier can't be having any fun in Columbia. I gotta figure he's done after this season. The Gamecocks are 4 years into the Spurrier regime and there's been 4 5+ loss seasons. I can't imagine that's sitting well with the OBC's psyche.

* Going to be a helluvan SEC Championship Game Saturday afternoon. Mike Slive and his staff couldn't have asked for anything more.

Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

Here's a look at this week's SEC Bowl projections from a panel of "experts".

* Apparently NBC's Cary Estes was projecting Auburn to knock off Georgia as the Tigers have disappeared off this list completely.

* Tennessee and Mississippi State are already guaranteed losing seasons. Arkansas and Auburn are both mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, but both teams would need major upsets to go their way.

* I know Alabama fans are upset that they're being slighted - #1 in the country and not predicted to reach the title game - but the simple fact of the matter is that the Gators are the best team in the country right now. Both teams just need to stay focus and avoid pitfalls between now and December 6th.

* Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt are all about equal in the eyes of the 5 pundits listed. I've talked about this before in previous threads, but I don't think the Music City Bowl would take Kentucky for a third straight year unless their hand is forced by circumstance. And I doubt the Wildcats players or fans would be too excited either.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (which chooses teams before the Music City Bowl) has the choice between a 7-5 Ole Miss team and a 7-5 Kentucky team, my guess is that they'd take UK to revitalize the CATlanta atmosphere so prevalent at the SEC Basketball tournament of years past. If Ole Miss knocks of LSU this weekend and finishes 8-4 and 2nd in the West though, the 'Cats may end up back in Nashville.

* Vanderbilt is in an interesting situation as the Music City Bowl is hosted (basically) just across the river from their campus. While the 'Dores certainly won't be picky about a bowl game after a 25 year drought, the coaching staff may prefer to travel to another city to be sure the players get the full bowl experience.

They could theoretically end up in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a win over UT this weekend and knocking off Wake Forest on the road next weekend. That would then send UK to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl and Ole Miss to Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

* UPDATED 11/18/08Mandel's picks are in from CNN/SI. Apparently, he thinks the Gamecocks are going to lose next weekend in Clemson, as he projects Ole Miss to take the Outback Bowl bid. While a Gamecock loss is certainly not out of the question, I'm not sure that would land Ole Miss in Tampa.

From the Bowl Tie-In Page on SECSports.com:

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.

In his scenario, the Cotton Bowl selects LSU, which would seem to imply the Tigers beat the Rebels this weekend. The Outback Bowl takes Ole Miss, which they'd be allowed to do since the Cotton Bowl had already taken an SEC West team. To me, it seems that if the Rebels beat LSU and MSU, they'd be more attractive to the Cotton Bowl than LSU would be. If they don't beat LSU, it seems the Gamecocks would be more attractive to the Outback Bowl than the Rebels unless they get blown out at Clemson next week. Neither scenario has the Rebels landing in the Outback Bowl.

'Dores, Rebs Going Bowling

Doormats no more.

Congratulations to Vandy and Ole Miss for locking up bowl bids yesterday. It's been a while for both schools, well a LONG while for VU. The 'Dores knocked off a tough UK team in Lexington last night while the Rebs throttled a hapless UL-Monroe team. I doubted whether or not Bobby Johnson could get VU over the hump after their recent skid, but they had a great gameplan last night and ran it well.

Just a bad all around weekend for UK fans as the feeling of deja vu in Rupp must have been rampant as the 'Cats fell to VMI to open the season.

No congratulations will be offered though to Fat Charlie and his pathetic Irish for wrapping up bowl eligibility. With the soft schedule the Irish play nearly every year, they should be bowl eligible. Here's to knocking back a few cold ones while Florida State beats the Irish by 4 TDs in the Gator Bowl.

Random Bits

* There were 4 SEC baseball stadiums named to Rivals Top 10 list, though it may not be the ones you thought it would be. The site offers this disclaimer:

LSU and South Carolina were omitted from our list because both schools have ballparks that still are under construction.

As for the ones that did make the list:

Baum Stadium – Arkansas
Baum Stadium is the palace of college baseball stadiums. Though many schools now are building new stadiums, they still are playing catch up with the Razorbacks. When Baum Stadium was erected in 1996, it was the class of college baseball. Not much has changed, as the capacity currently is 10,500 and luxury suites extend from the left-field foul pole to the right-field foul pole. Arkansas fans also pack the house rain or shine and provide a premier home-field advantage for their baseball program. Everyone aspires to have a facility like the University of Arkansas.

Polk-Dement Stadium -- Mississippi State
No school blows out a postseason party in a regional or super regional quite like Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs struggle to fill the stands until the weather warms up, Polk-Dement Stadium is an excellent venue to watch a game. In addition to a roomy grandstand, the Bulldogs also have what is called the "Left-Field Lounge", where patrons line the outfield wall with barbeque pits, coolers and whatever else they can get in their possession. The official capacity for the stadium, including outfield seating, is 15,000. Those that watched the Starkville super regional two seasons ago know exactly what the Bulldogs are about at Polk-Dement Stadium.

Oxford-University Stadium -- Ole Miss
Ole Miss has one of the hidden gems in college baseball. Though observers in the Southeastern part of the country know about the great atmosphere at Oxford-University Stadium, people nationally just now are getting a taste of what the Rebels are about. O-U Stadium holds about 3,500 spectators in the main grandstand, but thousands of fans often line the grassy areas down the left and right field lines and the outfield. In 2005, a record 10,119 fans were in attendance as the Rebels played Alabama. Ole Miss currently is in the midst of a renovation campaign that will increase grandstand seating.

Plainsman Park – Auburn
When the Tigers decided to renovate their facility in 1996, many schools, including Baylor, took notice of the project. Plainsman Park is one of the nation's best stadiums and has a wonderful façade to go with a cozy atmosphere. Plainsman Park has a capacity of 4,096 fans. However, the record attendance for a single-game was set in 2002, as 4,715 fans packed the stadium to watch Auburn play LSU. Recently, the Tigers have installed a new drainage system for the playing surface and a state-of-the-art strength and rehabilitation center. Auburn certainly is a trendsetter.

* ESPN has their first Bracketology up for the 2008-09 season and Lunardi projects just 5 SEC teams to dance this year:

Florida (2-seed)
Tennessee (4-seed)
Kentucky (8-seed)
Alabama (11-seed)
LSU (13-seed)

I’ll throw out that Ole Miss will make the tournament in the form of an 8-10 seed as well. They’ve been on the bubble the last two seasons and will pull it through this year. Lunardi projected them back in April in his first post-tourney Bracketology listing, so I’m not sure why they dropped.

Hard to believe the season kicks off in earnest this weekend. I’ll get a preview up sometime next week.

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

My Thoughts:
* I added in Stewart Mandel's picks from CNN/SI, though his fall in line with majority consensus on every game.

* With Penn State's loss to Iowa, both Alabama and Florida control their own destiny to play in the BCS Title game. As long as neither slips up against their final 2 regular season opponents, the loser of the clash in Atlanta will receive a Sugar Bowl Bid as a consolation prize.

* Please disregard any posts I may have made in the past weeks stating that Tennessee would rally around Fulmer's departure and win out. What a horrid performance they put on Saturday.

* And if anyone knows how to reach Cary Estes, the contributing writer for NBC.com, I'd love to hear if he thinks Auburn is going to knock off Georgia or Alabama to get their 6th win and wrap up an Independence Bowl bid.

* At least to me, it doesn't make sense for Kentucky to end up in Nashville for a 3rd straight season. The Bowl-Tie-In page on the SEC's site says:

In selections 6-7, the AutoZone Liberty and Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowls will make their selections, not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office. The Bowls will rank available qualified teams in order of preference. If there are no similarities in the order of selection, the bowls will be granted its selection. If the bowls rank the same teams in preference, the team involved in the process would get its preference of which bowl to participate.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl selects Ole Miss over UK, that's going to leave the 'Cats and (supposedly) Vanderbilt left as the 6th and 7th bowl-eligible teams. Obviously the Liberty Bowl would rank Vanderbilt ahead of Kentucky, but would the Music City Bowl rank Kentucky ahead of Vanderbilt on its list of preferences? And even if they did, would Kentucky really opt to head to Nashville again?

* I'm still not convinced that Vanderbilt wins another game this season to wrap up that Liberty Bowl bid. They're stuck in a pressure cooker at this point and with a shaky defense and shakier offense, win #6 is looking tougher.

* I like Bruce Feldman. I really do. He and Chris Low are the best two college football writers espn.com has. But there's no way that the Capital One Bowl deems LSU the most attractive non-BCS-Bowl-bound SEC team. Sitting at 3-3, they're going to have to work just to finish with a winning conference record. Ole Miss and Arkansas are certainly capable of knocking them off. Georgia is far and away the more attractive option there, especially considering the woodshed beating laid on the Tigers in Tiger Stadium.

Week 11 SEC Bowl Projections

After a weekend of games that helped solidify the pecking order in the SEC, projections (for the most part) are starting to be a little more consistent.

My Thoughts:

* Despite being #1 in the country and the only undefeated team left in conference, no one's projecting Alabama to hang onto that spot and make it to the BCS Title Game. After Florida's performances the last 2 weeks, it's hard to blame them.

* Ole Miss is seemingly the hardest team for the pundits to get a read on. The 5 projections here have them going to 4 different bowls. No other team has more than 2.

* I tend to agree with CBS and Scout that Tennessee finds itself back in a bowl game to send Fulmer out. The remaining teams on Tennessee's schedule - Wyoming, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky - are certainly all winnable games.

* I also tend to agree with Scout that Vandy won't be bowling this year. Their 5-0 start was an aberration and a forgotten one at that. They've got 4 games left, but this weekend's beatdown by Florida may drain what little life the 'Dores have left.

* Give credit to Petrino and the Hogs for turning around what was certainly a disastrous start to the SEC season, but I don't see them beating LSU or South Carolina, one of which they'll have to do to play in a bowl.

* Would the Music City Bowl really want Kentucky again? They're already the 2-time defending Music City Bowl Champs? Isn't that enough?

* Apparently they feel that if the Independence Bowl can't have Alabama, they don't want any SEC team. Only 1 projection for the Indy Bowl, and it's for Arkansas, which I just don't see happening.

Bowl Projections, Week 10

The most notable change is that only CBS has an SEC team in the BCS Title game. Two weeks ago, all 5 “experts” had either the Tide or the Gators playing for this year’s MNC. With PSU’s win in Columbus over the Buckeyes Saturday though, many feel that JoePa will make it back to a national title game. PSU certainly has the inside track now as the Big10 not only sucks, but has no championship game.

Most still feel that the SEC will get 10 teams in bowls, but I just don’t see it. Either Vanderbilt or Kentucky will go bowling, but not both.

• Kentucky needs just 1 win, but their remaining schedule and current injury situation doesn’t set up well for them. They play road games against weaker SEC teams in Starkville and Knoxville, but can you honestly say that UK is going to win either of those? They’ve got home dates with UGA and Vandy left. The UGA game won’t be close. The Vandy game seems to present the ‘Cats with the best chance to lock up a bowl bid.

• Vandy also needs just 1 win for eligibility, but it’s going to be tough. Kentucky seems to be their best shot at a win. Florida won’t be close. They host UT, but the Vols are too physical a team for the ‘Dores to handle, particularly now that their luck seems to have run dry. They close the season at Wake Forest, but the Deacons are a well-disciplined team who don’t turn the ball over much. VU will struggle in Winston-Salem.

• As poorly as they've played lately, I still feel Tennessee will end up in a low-level bowl. They need to finish 3-1... well 3-0 after they get beat in Columbia this weekend. Starting next weekend, they close with Wyoming, @ Vandy, and Kentucky. None of those teams are very good. It may not be enough to save Fulmer's job, but it will be a strong finish to the season.

• Auburn is 4-4 and still needs 2 wins. They’re possibly fighting for bowl eligibility this weekend in Oxford as 2 of their remaining games are against Georgia and Alabama. They’ve got a gimme against UT-Martin, but if they slip up in Oxford Saturday, they Tigers may be home for the holidays.

• I tend to think Ole Miss is fairly safe. They’re just 4-4 – like Auburn – but have games against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State left on the schedule in addition to Saturday’s Auburn game and a trip to Baton Rouge. They should be able to split those 4.

Rivals Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects

Yesterday, Rivals put up their early look at the NFL Draft Top 100 prospects. Needless to say, the SEC was well represented, landing 28 players on the list, including the top 3 spots. The wealth is spread out amongst the league as 10 teams land at least one player in the Top 100 and 7 teams have multiple players listed.

Given the SEC’s success churning out 1st round draft picks over last decade though, this should hardly be a surprise. It’s interesting to see the differences between Rivals and ESPN’s 2009 mock draft 1st round.

LSU leads the way with 6 players, followed by Florida with 5, Georgia with 4, Tennessee and Alabama with 3, Arkansas and Ole Miss with 2, and Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State with 1 a piece. Here’s a look at the players and what Rivals has to say about each.

* indicates underclassmen

1. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Oher has a rare blend of size, athleticism and girth. He entered the 2008 NFL draft, then pulled out a few days later even though he was considered a first-round pick. New coach Houston Nutt is glad he stayed. This time around, Oher – now a senior – could be the first player taken in the draft. He is No. 1 on the Rivals.com list of the top 100 pro prospects and could be the second consecutive offensive tackle chosen No. 1 overall; the Miami Dolphins took Michigan's Jake Long with the No. 1 pick earlier this year.

2. Andre Smith *, OT, Alabama
A massive tackle with great feet, in the mold of former first-round pick Shawn Andrews.

3. Matthew Stafford *, QB, Georgia
The most natural pocket passer in the nation. He has a skill set similar to Carson Palmer's.

12. Knowshon Moreno *, RB, Georgia
He is the most "natural" running back in the nation, with a combination of vision, quickness and balance. He has a good burst and a second gear.

16. Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
The best center prospect we have seen in the past five years.

18. Ricky Jean-Francois *, DT, LSU
Was the quickest and most disruptive LSU defensive lineman in the national championship game last season and, yes, that includes Glenn Dorsey.

20. Jermaine Cunningham *, DE, Florida
A compact, powerful end with speed, power and change-of-direction skill on the edge.

22. Herman Johnson, G, LSU
He's an amazing physical specimen at 6 feet 8 and 360 pounds who can move and re-direct in space. He's fluid and agile for a man his size.

23. Percy Harvin *, WR, Florida
An explosive athlete in space who can make a play any time he has the ball.

31. Tim Tebow *, QB, Florida
A dual run/pass threat who has all the intangibles. He can buy time in the pocket but needs to learn to read defenses more consistently in the passing game.

32. Geno Atkins *, DT, Georgia
Another explosive SEC three-technique defensive tackle. He will get a lot more attention from opposing linemen with the season-ending injury to Bulldogs DT Jeff Owens.

35. Derek Pegues, FS, Mississippi State
He is built and runs like a corner, but is a ballhawk as a safety.

36. Rico McCoy *, LB, Tennessee
Undersized but has the most impressive fluidity and range of any linebacker in the draft. He should really rise up draft boards.

39. Ciron Black *, OT, LSU
Displays a compact stance and moves well laterally. He can re-direct and has the quickness to reach the corner.

47. Greg Hardy *, DE, Ole Miss
His long limbs and speed make him difficult to block. He has the quickness to beat tackles outside or inside off the snap.

48. Brandon Spikes *, LB, Florida
A powerful linebacker who showcases good instincts inside, and does a nice job stacking and shedding versus the run.

53. Louis Murphy, WR, Florida
Showcases great deep speed and is a constant vertical threat. Is a raw route runner and lacks consistent hands.

57. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina
A smooth tackle who can handle speed off the edge. He is coordinated re-directing but needs to improve his technique.

58. Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
Has a great combination of power and athleticism. He is natural in space and gets a good push as an in-line run blocker.

64. Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia
A sideline-to-sideline athlete who has a nose for the ball and makes plays all over the field.

68. Sen'Derrick Marks *, DT, Auburn
A big-bodied tackle who can eat up space on the inside, and shows the power to push the pocket and anchor versus the double-team.

69. Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
Ideal for a zone-blocking scheme. He displays great feet and body control, and can really get out to the second level.

72. Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
Has a big, strong frame and is powerful attacking downhill. He has the athleticism to run sideline-to-sideline.
A strider who is sudden out of his breaks and does well going up and attacking the ball.

75. Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee
He's thickly built, with a compact frame. Has smooth lateral mobility and a strong punch, showcases good body control and never over-extends.

78. Keiland Williams *, RB, LSU
Dynamic with the ball in his hands, but lacks the girth and instincts to be successful between the tackles.

82. Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Possesses great size, length and suddenness off the edge. He needs to play with more power and more of a mean streak.

94. Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
Possesses great size and quickness through the tackles, but tries to run like a scatback too often and doesn't lower his head and drive for tough yards.

100. Terrence Cody *, DT, Alabama
Displays amazing athleticism for a man who weighs 370 pounds. He could really soar up draft boards with a strong season.

2008 Scoring Projections

One of the biggest stories in the SEC last year was the sharp increase in offense across the conference. As a whole, scoring was up more than 23%, with 9 teams increasing their PPG average from 2006 to 2007. Only Vandy, Auburn, and South Carolina took a step backwards.

It’ll be interesting to track the same stat this year. With the exception of Stafford and Tebow, the conference is basically bereft of proven QBs*. Sure there's talent - Snead and Crompton immediately come to mind - but they've yet to get it done on the field. With coaching and personnel changes from last season to this one, there are a handful of teams set to make big jumps – for better or for worse:
* Alabama fans, spare me the JPW emails please

ON THE WAY UP

Auburn:
The Tigers struggled early on last season and lost games to Mississippi State and South Florida at home before thing started to click. The Tigers were one of the three teams in the league to score less than they did in 2006, but 2008 will be just the opposite. With the implementation of the spread offense and nearly the entire offense back, the Tigers will definitely improve this season

Ole Miss:
The last 3 years in Oxford have not been pretty, and that’s being nice. The Rebels were actually one of the most improved scoring teams last year, despite ranking last in the SEC, scoring only 20.1 ppg. With the coaching changes and a stable of under-utilized talent though, the Rebels could make the biggest jump of any team in conference this season.

ON THE WAY DOWN:

Kentucky:
Fans in Lexington won’t recognize the ‘Cats offense this season. With Woodson, Johnson, Burton, and Little gone, UK will spend much of the season looking for an identity on offense. The dismissal of QB-heir-apparent Pulley certainly didn’t help their cause.

Arkansas:
While Petrino has a reputation for being an offensive genius, he’s just not working with a lot this season in Fayetteville. With no DMac or Felix Jones, the Hogs have no proven offensive weapons. It could be a long year offensively for Arknasas.

2008 SEC West Predictions

Every team in the West has questions this year - How will Auburn do running the spread for a full season? What kind of production will LSU get from its QBs? Will Alabama greatly improve in year 2 under Nick Saban? Can Houston Nutt win in Oxford with the talent Orgeron left him? How will Mississippi State score this year? How will Bobby Petrino do with inferior talent?

1. Auburn
Tuberville has established Auburn as one of the most consistent programs in America, but he shook things up last year after the Iron Bowl to implement the spread offense. They return nearly everyone on offense, so the transition should be a smooth one, but how it holds up for 12+ games remains to be seen. With all their tough games (except Alabama) at home, Auburn should win the West.

Best Case Scenario:
Kodi Burns steps in and plays like he's capable, the defense is strong, the Iron Bowl domination continues, and they end the season in the Sugar Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:
The offense sputters like it did early last season, the Tigers are embarrassed on national TV by West Virginia, the Iron Bowl trophy goes back to Tuscaloosa, and AU finishes the season in Shreveport

2. LSU
The defending BCS Champs will have a very different look this season with so many key departures from last season. They'll still field one of the top OLs and DLs in the SEC -thus the country - and have their typical stable of talented RBs. Now it's just a question of who's going to be under center. With road games at Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina in a 4-game stretch, it's hard to see the Bayou Bengals repeating as division champs.

Best Case Scenario
Steady QB play couple with trench-dominating lines lead LSU back to the BCS

Worst Case Scenario
Les Miles' magic 8-ball coaching decisions don't pan out like they did nearly every single time last year, QB play is sketchy, and the tough schedule proves too much and LSU winds up in Nashville

3. Alabama
Year 2 of the Nick Saban era begins with the Tide still sporting more talent than last year's team, a nice tandem of RBs and one of the most experienced QBs in the league. The Tide should be better this season and should will finish with back-to-back winning seasons for the second time since 1996. It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that the Tide could compete for the West, but road games at UGA, Tennessee, and LSU make it unlikely.

Best Case Scenario
Knocking off perennially overrated Clemson to open the season, finally beating Auburn, and facing UF in the SEC Championship Game

Worst Case Scenario
Bookend blowout losses to the season, ending up in the Papajohns.com Bowl or equivalent because Shreveport doesn't want them again

4. Ole Miss
After 3 of the worst non-Vandy years in recent SEC memory, Ole Miss fired Ed Orgeron and brought in Houston Nutt. Orgeron left plenty of talent for Nutt to work with, though much of it unproven, particularly in the offensive backfield. With a manageable schedule, the Rebels could be bowling by season's end, though that's certainly no guarantee. Nutt's teams always seems to knock off someone they're not supposed, but by the same token, he often drops the inexplicable games too.

Best Case Scenario
If everyone buys into the system and performs like they're capable, the Rebels could win 7-8 games this year and wind up in Memphis for the Liberty Bowl

Worst Case Scenario
QB Snead doesn't live up to hype, critical depth shortages at key positions prove disastrous, and the Golden Egg stays in Starkville while the Rebels endure a 5th straight season with no bowl game.

5. Mississippi State
While the Bulldogs were a great story last year, the reality was they were - perhaps - the worst 8-win team in SEC history. A stout, opportunistic defense paved the way for the team as the offense was inept at best. It's tough to see them duplicating that kind of success this season without scoring more points, but all signs indicate that's an unlikelihood. A soft schedule probably means a bowl game though.

Best Case Scenario
The offense improves while the defense stays strong and the Bullies catch a few more lucky breaks and wind up in a 2nd straight bowl game

Worst Case Scenario
The offense performs like it did in the Spring Game, the defense wears down from overuse and all the positive vibes from last season are long forgotten in an ugly year

6. Arkansas
Everything that can be said about the Arkansas coaching situation has been, so I'll leave it alone. The bottom line is that Petrino is stepping into a less-than-ideal situation talent-wise. He returns an experienced QB in Casey Dick, but is that really a good thing? Petrino may very well win at Arkansas, but it's not going to be this season.

Best Case Scenario
Even with all the lucky breaks this side of the moon, anything better than 6-6 is a pipe dream

Worst Case Scenario
If the more talented team wins every game played, the Hogs will win no more than 4 games

Recent history repeats itself

Internet message boards… love ‘em or hate ‘em, they’re a significant part of the fan/college sports relationship. These open forums allow fans from all walks of life and all geographies to congregate and discuss the teams they love and the ones they love to hate. Countless rumors – most unfounded and false, certainly, but some have proven to be true – have spawned on these boards.

It’s always interesting to go from board to board to get a feel for the general mood of the fan bases. With SEC football less than 4 weeks away, the boards are officially rocking, and rolling, and what not. While reading message boards this weekend, I noticed several Arkansas posters on the Ole Miss board badmouthing Houston Nutt. These same fans were touting the skills of Bobby Petrino.

Sometimes, you really can’t see the forest for the trees. Three years ago, Ole Miss fired David Cutcliffe and hired Ed Orgeron. Rebel faithful defended the hire, citing EOr being Pete Carroll’s “right hand man” at USC. Bring up the fact that he’d never even been a coordinator and prepare to be told that didn’t matter. Orgeron spoke (or whatever you called those gravelly noises coming from his mouth) and Rebel fans ate it up. Sugar Bowl wins were coming. Or not. He won 3 SEC games in 3 years and was fired. Everyone could see it coming except for Ole Miss.

Arkansas is a similar situation this year with Bobby Petrino. While Petrino is certainly light years above Orgeron as a head coach, reading Arkansas fans comments, you would think he invented the forward pass. Outside observers see a disingenuous gypsy of a coach who has signed 20 years worth of contracts in the last couple of years. They see backstabber who wrangled for Tuberville’s job. They see a coach who inflated his W/L record in lesser conferences and beat only 14 teams with winning records.

There’s no doubt Petrino will be more successful at Arkansas than Orgeron was at Ole Miss. I’m fairly certain my dog could do at least an equivalent job of that. As for Arkansas, outside expectations are low for this season, but reading message boards, a 3rd place finish – behind Auburn and LSU – is expected by some Hog fans. Petrino will be SEC Coach of the Year if he pulls that off.

In my opinion, the question is not “Will he succeed as a head coach in the SEC?” It’s “Will he be around long enough to be accurately judged?”

SEC Brawlers

Two former All-SEC performers have been at the center of brawls recently, though to varying degrees. Former Tennessee All-American Candace Parker was one of the key contributers to the big WNBA brawl - think about that phrase for a moment... - that happened earlier this week. The melee resulted in 10 suspensions and a torn ACL. It also resulted in an all-time high number of times the WNBA was talked about in a single week. The high-ups can say what they want to about being disappointed, shocked, ashamed, etc., but deep down they're loving the extra publicity.

Most of you have probably seen the below minor league basebrawl from yesterday. What you may not realize is that it all started when former Ole Miss All American SS Zach Cozart was beaned in the head. Here's a professional video of it. More significant then Cozart being beaned is the asshat pitcher who tries to throw a ball at someone in the opposing dugout and misses. He hit a fan instead who was taken to the hospital.

If you haven't seen the below raw footage of the fight yet, be warned there's some NSFW language.

Not too much going on these days...

Other than what seems to be a twice-weekly occurrence of players being booted off teams, all's quiet for now. Well, except for Urban Meyer. Most of you have probably heard about this...

Simply calling Tim Tebow the best quarterback in college football apparently isn't enough. Gators coach Urban Meyer told a Miami audience that Tebow ''is the greatest player of our era.''

Tebow certainly has the potential to be the greatest player of this era, but I think it's premature to bestow that honor on him just yet. The MNC ring as a freshman and the Heisman as a sophomore put him in a class by himself, but he's got at least one year in college. SEC coaching staffs have had another full offseason to work on defensive schemes to slow him down. And, there are plenty of defenders across the SEC who will take a little extra joy popping the defending Heisman winner.

* ESPN loves to make up new statistics and shove them down our throats - OPS anyone? Their latest is to come up with (in their mind) the definitive way to measure the prestige of all college basketball programs since 1984-85, the year the tourney went to its current format. They've listed #s 41-50 here and #s 51-300 here.

I love the reasoning ESPN gives as to how these numbers are indisputable:

Normally when you see these rankings, they are the "expert" opinion of one or more people whose knowledge (and sanity) usually is questioned by those who disagree. But with ESPN's Prestige Rankings, there is no such argument. We let the numbers do the talking. We assigned point values for certain successes (win a national title, earn 25 points) and failures (get your program banned from the NCAA tournament, lose three points), put all the seasons through our big calculator and came up with the No. 1 program (and the No. 300 program) of the past 24 seasons.

But I digress.

So far, 8 of the SEC's 12 schools have shown up...
41. LSU
T-86. Mississippi State
T-90. Auburn
T-96. Vanderbilt
99. Tennessee
T-105. Georgia
T-185. South Carolina
T-192. Mississippi

...which leaves Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama. Without taking the time to do the math, It'll be interesting to see if UF or UK comes out on top for the SEC. Each has 2 championships and a title game loss. I'd imagine Alabama will be in the next group, Florida in the 20s, and Arkansas somewhere in the teens. Even with mediocre play lately you gotta figure UK is in the Top 10.

In the end though, it's just another excuse for ESPN to fawn over ACC basketball. Once the top 10 is unveiled Friday, you can count on Duke Vitale to show up on Sportscenter and go crazy for Dook and UNC.

*UPDATE: 7/22*As expected, Alabama shows up at #35. More than any other SEC team, Alabama had the most opportunity to be higher than they are. While Florida had some painful early exits in recent years, the Tide made it routine in the late 80s/early 90s.
*UPDATE: 7/23*Florida checks in at #21
*UPDATE: 7/24*Arkansas shows up at #15
*UPDATE: 7/25*>Kentucky ranks #4, based almost entirely on Pitino's utter dominance of the SEC when he there.

* Next time you think you're doing well at the gym, try not to think of UT OL Jacques McClendon and how he benched 645 pounds. And no that's not a typo...

* Fairly interesting read on BleacherReport today: 30 Fearless Predictions for the 2008 season

* Off topic, but if you haven't see The Dark Knight yet, what are you waiting for? Christopher Nolan's Batman franchise is what all other superhero franchises wish they were. Superman Returns was mediocre at best and, after Spiderman 3, that franchise is dead. Iron Man was good, but Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are in a league of their own when it comes to Superhero movies.

Top SEC Newcomers

Chris Low ranks the SEC's Top 10 Newcomers
1. Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss
2. Chris Rainey, RB, Florida
3. Demetrice Morley, S, Tennessee
4. Chris Todd, QB, Auburn
5. Raven Gray, DE, Auburn
6. Will Hill, S, Florida
7. Jerrell Harris, LB, Alabama
8. Enrique Davis, TB, Ole Miss
9. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
10. Blair Walsh, K, Georgia

Two each for the Gators, AU Tigers, Rebels, and Tide. He also includes DT Jerrell Powe and LB Patrick Trahan of Ole Miss and DE Gerald Williams and TE Brandon Warren UT. Each has the ability to be an impact player if they can get their classroom work taken care of. Powe in particular has been the subject of many a water-cooler conversation over the past few years in his seemingly never-ending saga. Former OM coach Ed Orgeron fought like a mad man to get Powe eligible, only be to be denied repeatedly. From what I'm hearing through the Ole Miss grapevine, Powe will be eligible this year, they're just waiting until after SEC Media Days to announce it as to not have to field the questions about it.

And, if you need a laugh, here are some stupid kids and hard metal basketball rims: