Week 13 Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Picks are a day late this week, but it's been hard to find the time with all the hustle and bustle of the Holiday. Anyway, 3 conference games this weekend with Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl taking place, and LSU/Arkansas tangling for the rights to the Golden Boot. 4 teams venture out to the JV league known as the ACC for intrastate rivalries.

Here's how the weekend will shake out...

Friday
Ole Miss (3-8, 0-7) at Mississippi State (6-5, 3-4)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday’s Line: Mississippi State -6.5

Ole Miss owns this series all time 59-38-6, including last year’s 20-17 win Oxford. The Rebels have won 4 of the last 5, but lost 35-14 in Starkville in 2005.

The Rebels will undoubtedly come out fired up for this one. Their season has been in the tank since the Doyle Jackson Alabama game last month, but this is their chance to send their cross-state rival into a bowl game with a 2-game losing streak. After that emotion wears off though, and MSU continues to pound the ball with RB Dixon, the better team will win out in this game. The Rebels will start QB Schaefer, who anchored the Rebel offense that moved the ball very well against #1 LSU last weekend. Whether HC Orgeron will mysteriously sub him out in key situations remains to be seen. Look for MSU QB Carroll to bounce back from his 4-INT game against Arkansas last week with a solid game against a weak Rebel secondary.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Arkansas (7-4, 3-4) at (#1, #1)LSU (10-1, 6-1)
1:30 CST, CBS
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -12.5

LSU owns this series all time 33-17-2, including last year’s 31-26 victory. The Tigers have won 5 of 6 and 10 of 15 since Arkansas joined the SEC. The Hogs haven’t beaten a #1 team since 1981.

The Tigers looked like they just went through the motions last week in their victory over Ole Miss. They weren’t particularly sharp, but the talent differential was enough to cover for them. That won’t be the case this week. Both RBs McFadden and Jones racked up 100+ yds last year against the Tigers. The Hogs would like nothing more than to play spoiler and knock the Tigers off their #1 perch. If you believe the rumors, this is McFadden and Jones’ regular season finale as Razorbacks, so they’ll be jacked up and ready to go. The Razorbacks have the talent to bother LSU, but not to beat them. The game will be close, but the Tigers will pull it out in the end.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Saturday
Wake Forest (7-4) at Vanderbilt (5-6, 2-6)
Wednesday’s Line: Wake Forest -1.5

Vanderbilt leads this series all time 7-3, including a 24-20 victory in 2005. The Commodores have won 5 in a row in this series. The Demon Deacons are just 31-61-2 vs current SEC teams.

Wake snapped a 2-game losing streak last week with a 20 point win over NC State on Senior Day. They’ve got a bowl bid locked up, but their bid could certainly be bolstered by a quality road win such as this one. Meanwhile, the ‘Dores will be looking to shake off the funk after somehow letting a 15 point 4th quarter lead evaporate last week against Tennessee. This could well be WR Bennett’s last game in the Black and Gold, so he’ll be looking to make big plays against a solid WFU secondary. These are the types of games that good teams find ways to win. Vanderbilt has had chances this season – particularly last week and Georgia – to prove they are a good team and worthy of a bowl, but have let those game slip away. It doesn’t look like they know how to win the close games, which this one seems destined to be. While it should be a fun, exciting game to watch, it will end with heartache and no bowl bid for Vandy.

Straight Up Winner: Wake Forest
Against the Spread: Wake Forest

(#19, #19)Tennessee (8-3, 5-2) at Kentucky (7-4, 3-4)
1:30 CDT, CBS
Wednesday’s Line: Kentucky -3

Tennessee has dominated this series all-time 70-23-9, including last year’s 17-12 win. The Vols have won 22 straight in this series. UT is 33-3-1 when ranked in this game.

The Vols need to win this game to wrap up the SEC East. Like Arkansas, the ‘Cats have an opportunity to play spoiler. If they’re ever going to snap the streak, this is the year to do it… a home game, senior-laden offense on senior day, a slight favorite in the oddsmakers’ eyes. This promises to be a high scoring game as two of the most efficient offenses in conference go against two of the weakest defenses. The Vols will be focused after narrowly escaping Vanderbilt last week, while the ‘Cats will be looking to rebound from a game in which they surrendered an early 10-0 lead to Georgia. All of Tennessee’s losses this year have come on the road, and this is their first road game since being hammered 41-17 by Alabama. If it were in Knoxville, the Vols would be an easy pick. But on the road against a hungry UK team, Andre’ Woodson and the ‘Cats will be too much for the Vols in the end.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

(#6, #7) Georgia (9-2, 5-2) at Georgia Tech (7-4)
2:30 CDT, ABC
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -3.5

Georgia owns this series all-time 58-36-5, including last year’s 15-12 victory. The
Dawgs have won 6 straight in the series, though the last 3 have come by 16 points combined.

With their hand cast in the SEC, the ‘Dawgs venture out of conference to do a little scoreboard-watching on the Kentucky/Tennessee game. A ‘Cats win would put UGA in the SEC Championship Game with LSU. All the while, they’ll be taking on a Georgia Tech team that has been up and down all season, but is coming off back-to-back blowout of perennial basketball powers and football patsies Duke and North Carolina. While the Tech defense has been very good at times, they’ve not seen the speed and power of a RB like UGA’s Moreno. UGA QB Stafford will need to continue his recent steady play of handing the ball off to Moreno and making enough plays downfield so the defense can’t stack 8 or 9 in the box to stuff the run. As long as the ‘Dawgs can keep their eyes off the scoreboard long enough to handle the task at hand, they’ll continue their dominance of their lesser cross-state rivals.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Florida State (7-4) at (#12, #14)Florida (8-3, 5-3)
4:00 CDT, CBS
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -13.5

Florida leads this series all-time 30-19-2, including last year’s 31-14 win. The Gators have won 3 in a row in this series.

With no national title implications in this game (4 titles between these 2 since 1992), this one is all about pride. UF HC Meyer is 2-0 against FSU so far in his career. Both teams will look to pound the ball early, as the team who has rushed for more yards is 16-2-1 in the last 19 seasons. That gives the advantage to the steadily improving Gator front 7, who have been consistent against the run all season. While the FSU passing attack has improved somewhat throughout the season, they don’t have the weapons to fully exploit the Gator secondary that has been picked apart all season. This will be a tight game as usual, but the Gators have too many offensive weapons to lose to an offensively challenged team like the Seminoles.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida State

(#21, #22)Clemson (8-3) at South Carolina (6-5, 3-5)
6:00 CDT, ESPN2
Wednesday’s Line: Clemson-3

Clemson owns this series all time 63-37-4, but the Gamecocks pulled the upset last year 31-28. The Tigers are 8-2 over the last 10 seasons against USC.

At one point this season, the Gamecocks were ranked in the top 10, controlled their destiny in the SEC East, and had one of the toughest defenses in the conference, as well as the country. Then the injuries came along with inconsistent play from the QB and RB positions, and the ‘Cocks find themselves mired in a 4-game losing streak. Clemson, denied an ACC Division title last weekend with a loss to BC, will look to take out their frustrations on the battered Gamecocks. Their offense has been explosive led by QB Harper. Even with a much-needed extra week of rest, the Gamecocks don’t seem to have the weapons to score enough points to win this game. Unless the Ole Ball Coach can pull some magic out of his visor, the Tigers will continue their dominance in this series.

Straight Up Winner: Clemson
Against the Spread: Clemson

Alabama (6-5, 4-3) at (#25, #25)Auburn (7-4, 4-3)
7:00 CDT, ESPN
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -6

Alabama leads this series all time 38-32-1 but Auburn has won 5 straight in the series. HC Tuberville is 4-0 against the Tide in Auburn.

These two teams have swapped roles since the beginning of the season when Auburn was plagued by inconsistency and the Tide started 2-0 in conference against Vandy and Arkansas. Now Auburn has righted the ship (except the UGA game two weeks ago) and Alabama is coming off a loss to Louisiana-Monroe that HC Saban likened to the bombing of Pearl Harbor and 9/11. The key to this game will be how the Tide come out of the gate. Last week’s loss was an embarrassment for everyone associated with the program and players’ efforts were being openly questioned. For the Tigers, they’ll be looking to shake the funk of getting blown out by UGA after taking a 3rd quarter lead. With more at stake for the Tigers, look for a hard-fought, close battle early on. As the game wears on though, the AU RBs will start to wear down the Tide and send Bama to a 6th straight loss in the series. The most Bama fans can hope for is Saban not comparing it to the recent cyclone or tsunamis that have claimed so many lives in Asia in recent months.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Aubrun

Week 12 Predictions

Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ (#14, #14)Florida (7-3, 5-3)
11:00 CST, PPV
Wednesday's Line: Florida -34

Though this is the first meeting between these two programs, FAU HC Schnellenberger has a winning career record against the Gators, having gone 3-2 in the early 80s while HC at Thug U Miami. Florida is 19-1 in their last 20 games prior to FSU and is 9-0 against current Sun Belt members.

This will be a good game for the Gators to rest up some dinged up players including QB Tebow. With the annual grudge match looming next week against the Seminoles, don’t look for anything to spectacular from Florida. They’ll win, easily and comfortably, but the Owls aerial attack and UF’s weak secondary will keep the margin within 5 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida Atlantic

(#22, #20)Kentucky (7-3, 3-3) @ (#8, #9)Georgia (8-2, 5-2)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Georgia -7.5

Georgia owns this series all-time 47-11-2, though the ‘Cats beat the ‘Dawgs last year 24-20 in Lexington. UGA though, has won 14 straight in Athens dating back to 1977.

Apparently the inconsistency that plagued Georgia the first several weeks of the season is a thing of the past. They’ve scored 40+ points the last 3 weeks and RB Moreno has SEC Freshman of the Year wrapped up. He should have another huge game Saturday as UK’s run defense gives up nearly 200 ypg. UGA will need to put points on the board as the ‘Cats have the firepower to match them. QB Woodson has cooled off of late, but has stil thrown for 2653 yds and 29 TDs this year. UGA’s pass D has surrendered just 9 TDS this season, fewest in the conference, so it will be interesting to watch that battle.

Georgia can clinch a share of the SEC East with a win Saturday against UK, though they’ll need Tennessee to slip up against Vandy this weekend or Kentucky next weekend. Moreno should find plenty of running room against UK and the ‘Dawgs will control the clock and the flow of the game. This will be a high-scoring affair, but in the end, the ‘Dawgs get revenge for last year’s loss.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Mississippi State (6-4, 3-3) @ Arkansas (6-4, 2-4)
1:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -11

Arkansas leads this series all-time 11-5-1, including last year’s 28-14 win in Starkville. MSU has never won in the state of Arkansas, posting an 0-6-1 record. The Hogs have won 8 straight matchups and 12 of the last 13.

The Bulldogs have already had their best season since 2000, regardless of what happens the rest of the way. They come to Arkansas on the heels of a dramatic, emotional win against Alabama. Their rush D (149.8 ypg, 8th in SEC) will be tested as they take on the NFL-caliber backfield of Darren McFadden and (possibly) Felix Jones. FR QB Carroll threw his first INT of the season last week, and now faces a tough Arkansas Pass D that allows just a 44% completion ratio and has 15 INTs on the season. The Hogs were – surprisingly – bottled up by a typically porous Tennessee run defense last week, collecting only 127 yds on the ground. Whether the Bulldogs can emulate the Vols’ schemes remains to be seen.

Both of these teams are headed to bowl games, but the loser of this game is most like relegated to Shreveport, which should be plenty of motivation to win. This is – for all intents and purposes – Senior Day for McFadden and Jones. Jones sat out practice again on Tuesday, so he may not play. McFadden and crew will have their work cut out for them against a good Bulldog D, but should make enough plays down the stretch to pull out a win. It won’t be easy, but the Hogs extend their dominance of MSU.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4, 4-3)
1:30 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -25

This is only the 2nd meeting between these two schools, as the Tide rolled to a 41-7 win last season. Alabama is 15-0 against current Sun Belt Members. ULM is 2-27-1 against current SEC members having beaten UK in 1994 and MSU in 1995.

A game like this couldn’t come soon enough for the Tide. They were held (for a 3rd straight season) without an offensive TD against MSU last weekend, just one week after losing a 4th quarter lead to LSU. The offense should have its way with a Warhawk D that surrenders more than 30 ppg. The Tide D will be tested some, as ULM averages about 405 ypg, but not enough to pull the upset. With the Iron Bowl looming next week, the focus may not be there, so 3.5 TDs may be asking too much.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Lousiana-Monroe

Vanderbilt (5-5, 2-5) @ (#19, #19)Tennessee (7-3, 4-2)
1:00 CST, PPV
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -11.5

Tennessee owns this series all-time 68-27-5, including last year’s 39-10 win in Nashville. The ‘Dore snapped a 22-game losing streak to UT 2 years ago in Knoxville, which is UT HC Fulmer’s only career loss to VU (13-1).

The Vols are wrapping up a 4-game homestand that’s seen them outscore opponents 120-44 through 3 games. They’re unbeaten this season at Neyland. While they rank 11th in conference in total D (400.1 ypg), the ‘Dores offense ranks 11th as well, mustering just 330 ypg. The Commodores will need a huge game from WR Bennett against a soft Vols secondary (236.5 ypg) for the chance at an upset and bowl-eligibility. As for the Vols, expect much of the same… a consistent diet of pounding the ball on the ground and a quick, controlled passing game from QB Ainge.

The Vols need to only beat Vandy and Kentucky – 2 teams they have historically dominated – to clinch an unlikely SEC East title. They’ll take the first step towards that Saturday, cruising to an easy victory over the Commodores.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

(#1, #1) LSU (9-1, 5-1) @ Ole Miss (3-7, 0-6)
1:00 CST, PPV
Wednesday's Line: LSU -19.5

LSU leads this series all-time 54-37-4, including last year’s 23-20 OT win in Baton Rouge. LSU has won 5 in a row, though 4 of the 5 have been by a FG or less. The other was a 40-7 romp 2 years ago in Oxford.

The Tigers roll into this game the newly anointed #1 team in the country after Illinois knocked off tOSU last weekend. They basically went through the motions last week in routing Louisiana Tech. They’ll have the talent advantage in nearly every position on the field Saturday, but will need to be focused for a Rebel team that will undoubtedly be fired up to play. The Rebels have had many a close SEC loss under HC Orgeron, and they’re convinced this weekend is when they take the next step. It will be interesting to see if they can move the ball at all against a Tiger D that ranks 1st in the conference in scoring D, rush D, Total D, Pass Efficiency D, Opponents 1st Downs, and Sacks by. It also ranks 2nd in Pass D and Opponent 4th Down Conversions. Did I mention Ole Miss ranks last in nearly very offensive (and defensive for that matter) category?

CBS must have picked this game specifically to showcase LSU’s dominance to national voters who may not be sure of it yet. There’s no other that this game should be on TV. It’s certainly not more appealing than Arkansas/MSU with two teams fighting to improve bowl positions or Georgia/Kentucky, with two teams that have both been in the top 10 this season. Regardless, they’ll get their wish. Things have been ugly in Oxford this season, and Saturday will be no different.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Week 11 Predictions

We've officially turned the corner and are headed down the home stretch of the season. While the SEC West is all but wrapped up, the SEC East is anything but. There's even a feasible scenario with a 6-way tie at 4-4. (See Balance of Power on righthand side) As for this weekend's games, we've got five conference games and the road team is favored in 3 of them and another is a Pick ‘Em game. Welcome to SEC Football at its finest.

Saturday
(#21, #23)Alabama (7-3, 4-2) @ Mississippi St. (5-4, 2-3)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -5.5

Alabama owns this series all-time, holding a 71-17-3 lead in the series, and is the longest running series for the Crimson Tide. MSU HC Croom played and coached at Alabama before ending up in Starkville. Though the Bulldogs have 2 road conference wins this year, their 24-16 win in Tuscaloosa snapped a 23-game road conference game losing streak. It also – for all intents and purposes – marked the end of HC Shula’s Tide career.

Imperative for the Tide in this game is to actually score an offensive TD. The Bulldog D has held the Alabama without and offensive TD the last 2 seasons. Alabama is scoring 31.8 ppg this season, while the Bulldogs are surrendering 25.2 ppg, so that streak will come to an end this year. They’ll need a better game from QB Wilson, who last year threw for just 187 yds and 2 INTs. If he can get the ball to WR Hall, he should be alright. Hall leads the league in ypg (93.3) and is tied for 3rd in TDs (6). Wilson’s performance will need to resemble his game against UT (32-36, 363 yds, 3 TDs) than his game last week against LSU (14-40, 234 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT). They’ll need improved efforts from their RBs as well (23 carries for 54 yds).

Much of this game will come down to how FR QB Carroll handles the pressure of the game, as well as a Tide pass D with 17 sacks and 15 interceptions. He played very well in the upset of Kentucky a couple of weeks ago and MSU will need a similar effort this weekend. RB Dixon will need to find some holes in a strong Tide run D (3.6 ypc) to but Carroll some more time in the pocket. Dixon is tied with Arkansas RB McFadden for second in the SEC with 12 rushing TDs. He’ll definitely need to add to that total for the Bullies to spring the upset.

This is the first sellout since MSU expanded their stadium to its current capacity in 2001. The Tide will be looking for revenge after last year’s embarrassing loss, while the Bulldogs will be looking to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 2000. While the atmosphere will be as raucous as it’s been in years in Starkville, the Tide players are used to rowdy crowds. While MSU is improved, they don’t have the talent to overcome the number of penalties likely to be called on them. The Tide will make a few more plays down the stretch and pull out a tough road win.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Arkansas (6-3, 2-3) @ (#22, #24)Tennessee (6-3, 3-2)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Pick ‘Em

Tennessee has dominated this series all time, holding a 12-3 record, including 5-1 in Knoxville. Arkansas won last year 31-14 in Fayetteville, though UT QB Ainge sat the game out with a bum ankle. The last time Arkansas trekked to Knoxville, it took 6 OTs to determine that UT was 3 points better.

If QB Dick is ever going to have a breakout game, this would be the time to have it. The Vols pass defense ranks last in conference, allowing nearly 245 ypg. The Hogs basically eschewed the passing game last week against South Carolina, as they rushed the ball58 times for 542 yds, 487 yds by RBs McFadden and Jones. Dick did play well, completing 8/10 passes for 86 yds with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. The defense allowed 489 yds, but was on the field for more than 37 minutes of the game, so those numbers are skewed.

Tennessee continued its improved play at home with a thumping of hapless ULaLa last week. Ainge was his usual consistent self – 69.6% completions, 125 yds, and 1 TD. The Vols will need more this weekend to keep up with the Hogs. Ainge isn’t asked to throw downfield much, but the Hogs defense is strong enough to make a few plays and disrupt dink-and-dunk drives. With McFadden and Jones able to break a long TD run any time they touch the ball, look for the playbook to open up a bit. RB Foster will need step up to the challenge of having the best 2 RBs in conference invading his home stadium.

After less-than-stellar beginnings for these two teams, it’s hard to believe this game is as significant as it is. Tennessee has been dominant at home lately and Arkansas has been on fire lately, averaging 50 ppg the last 3 weeks. You could argue that the Hogs are the 3rd best team in conference right now behind LSU and Auburn. Tennessee has had trouble stopping teams this season and has had to outscore people. That won’t happen this weekend. McFadden and Jones will both have an easy time with a porous UT run D giving up 4.5 ypc and 167.7 ypg. In what should be another high-scoring affair, the Hogs will run to a road win in Knoxville.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

(#24, #22)Kentucky (6-3, 2-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4, 2-4)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Kentucky -3.5

Kentucky leads this all-time series 38-37-4, including last year’s 38-26 win in Lexington. In addition to nearly an identical win-loss record, the games in this series have been close, with 32 (41%) of the games decided by a TD or less. The teams are 14-14-4 in those games.

It was a stellar game for both QBs last season, as UK’s Woodson threw for a career high 450 yds (4 TDs/0 INTs) and VU’s Nickson nearly matched him with 446 yds of his own. Each team’s marquee receiver played well, with UK’s Burton tallying 171 yds and 2 TDs and VU’s Bennett added a then-career-high 220 yds. Don’t look for either team to approach those numbers this year.

UK’s high-powered attack, all but grounded by MSU a couple of weeks ago, will look to return to its early season form against an up and down Vandy defense. After playing well for 3 weeks, the ‘Dores D allowed nearly 500 yds to Florida and dug itself a 35-7 hole by halftime. With a senior-laden ‘Cats team playing their last few games together, they’ll be rearing to go and will put some points on the board early. When Kentucky scores though, the fun may just be beginning. If it’s windy enough to keep the ball out of the end zone, VU KR Moore averages nearly 30ypr and seems more and more due to break one for a TD with each passing week.

The loser of this game is normally relegated to the cellar of the SEC East (which would still be 3rd in the Big 10, but I digress). That may not be the case this year as no team has more than 4 wins or fewer than 2 losses. It will be Vandy to tests out the theory though. Kentucky played too poorly at home 2 weekends ago to not bounce back with a solid performance this weekend in Nashville. The game will most likely be close – as they – all seem to be, but Woodson and crew have too much firepower for the ‘Dores.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

(#18, #17)Auburn (7-3, 4-2) @ (#10, #10)Georgia (7-2, 4-2)
2:30 CST, CBS
Wednesday's Line: Georgia -2

Auburn leads this series 53-49-8, but Georgia blew out the Tigers 36-15 last year in Auburn. The Tigers actually lead the series 18-9 in Athens, and have won 10 of the last 12 there.

Auburn is playing some of the best football in the country right now, having won 6 of 7, with the lone loss a heartbreaker to LSU. Their success is tied directly to the fact that QB Cox has thrown just 1 INT in those 7 games. He won’t beat you with his arm – only 6 TDs in those same games – but he doesn’t have to. He’ll look to move the ball against a UGA pass D that leads the league in pass TDs allowed (8) but is last in interceptions (4). RB Lester rested against TTU last weekend, but he and fellow RBs Tate and Fannin will be called upon to attack a Dawg rush D that has given up 14 TDs, tied for 2nd worst in the league.

As for the ‘Dawg O… little has gone wrong the last two weeks, having rolled up 878 yds and 86 points in wins over Florida and Troy. Their job will be a little tougher Saturday against an AU defense that has allowed fewer TDs than any other team in conference ranks 2nd in total defense behind LSU. RB Moreno – a virtual lock for SEC Freshman of the Year – spearheads a ‘Dawg running attack ranked 5th in conference with 173.7 ypg. He’ll need QB Stafford to continue his recent hot streak – 434 yds, 5 TDs last 2 games – trying to stretch out the stout Tiger D. Without the threat of a vertical passing attack, the running lanes with be few and far between.

AU HC Tuberville ranks as one of the best big game coaches in the country. His Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 games against Top 10 opponents, including their victory over Florida earlier in the season. While the “good” UGA offense has been out the last 2 games, AU’s D will bring out the ‘Dawgs that struggled against South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. As usual in this series, the hometown fans will go away unhappy.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

(#17, #18)Florida (6-3, 4-3) @ South Carolina (6-4, 3-4)
6:45 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Florida -6.5

Florida has dominated this series through the years, holding a 20-4-3 advantage in the series, including last year’s 17-16 squeaker in Gainesville. The Gators are 14-1 against the Gamecocks since they joined the SEC in 1992, though that 1 loss was 2 years ago in Columbia.

Just 7 days after being run over by McFadden and Arkansas, the Gamecocks must somehow regroup and play a desperation game against a bitter divisional rival. One bright spot from last week’s game was the play of QB Mitchell who threw for 364 yds and 2 TDs with his team in catchup mode all night. He’ll have a chance to exploit a young, banged up UF secondary allowing a 60% completion rate. They’ll need some kind of production from RB Boyd though. He’s rolled up 254 yds the last 2 weeks, but the Gators are allowing only 105.6 ypg and 3.1 ypc.

As for the Gators, they really made a statement last week against an improved Vanderbilt team scoring 5 TDs in the first half. QB Tebow continues to play well despite a dinged up shoulder. His pass game will be tested this weekend by a strong USC secondary allowing only a 51.9% completion rate and 149.2 ypg. BMF Harvin and RB Moore should be able to find success against a USC defense probably not sleeping well from dreams of the Razorback dynamic duo.

I picked the Gamecocks to surprise and win the SEC East this year, but key defensive injuries, lack of a running game, and inconsistent QB play have all but ended those chances. While the East is muddled enough to where just about anything is possible, the Gamecock chances will officially be nil after another gut-wrenching loss Saturday. The defense will rebound from being embarrassed last weekend, but the offense just doesn’t have the guns to run with the Gators for 60 minutes. A close game, but too much Tebow/Harvin at the end of the day.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ (#2, #2) LSU (8-1, 5-1)
7:00 CST, PPV
Wednesday's Line: LSU -36.5

LSU owns a 16-1 record all-time against Louisiana Tech, including a 49-10 win in 2003 the last time they played. LaTech has managed just 32 points in the 17 games and has been shutout 12 times. LSU is 16-0 against WAC members, but HC Miles is just 1-1 against LaTech (from his OKSt days).

One fact sums up this matchup… This Bulldog team couldn’t score against Ole Miss. That’s all you need to know. This game won’t come down to Les Miles’ magic 8-ball of questionable coaching moves. No one cares if QB Perrilloux plays or not. This will just be an ugly, massacre of the most talented team in the country running over its ugly, red-headed stepchild on a chilly night on the Bayou.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LTU

Week 10 Predictions

There are 7 games on the SEC slate this weekend, but just 3 conference games. Vanderbilt and Florida square off, with the loser joining Kentucky in the cellar of the East. South Carolina travels to Arkansas with the loser being relegated to a lower-tier SEC bowl game. And LSU travels to Alabama for a meaningless, ho-hum conference game where both sets of fans wish that Bama HC Saban could come out victorious… or not.

Here's how the weekend will shake out...

Saturday
Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-3) @ (#18, #17)Florida (5-3, 3-3)
11:30 CDT, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Florida -15.5

Vanderbilt heads to the Sunshine state for a surprisingly important conference game. Florida leads the series 29-9-2 and has won the last 16 meetings. They’ve also won 18 straight Homecoming games and 20 straight immediately following Georgia. Vandy is 1-17-1 all time in Gainesville. The last two games have been decided by a total of 13 points though, including a 2OT game 2 years ago in Gainesville, and the Gators are just 1-4 the last 5 against Vandy.

Vandy WR Bennett had one of his best games as a ‘Dore last year, hauling in 13 catches for 157 yds. VU currently ranks 11th in conference in passing ypg, but the Gator D ranks 11th in stopping the pass, so Bennett will have another opportunity for a big game. Running the ball may be another story, as the Gators rank 2nd in the conference, allowing just over 100 yds per game. One thing’s for certain, Vandy won’t be intimidated here, having played well in the Swamp 2 years ago and upsetting #6 South Carolina a couple of weeks ago in Columbia. The key for Vandy will be keeping it close early on, as they don’t have the firepower to play catch up with the Gators.

The Gators are happy to get back to The Swamp, having not played a home game in the entire month of October. QB Tebow is still banged up, so WR Harvin should get a lot of touches again this week after rushing for 97 yds on 10 carries last week. The Gators will need a better game from RB Moore, who pair a 20-yd effort with 2 fumbles. Tebow’s passing will be tested. He currently leads the nation in pass efficiency, but the ‘Dores rank 4th in the conference in pass defense efficiency and boast a 6/14 TD/INT ratio.

This is certainly a contrast of styles, as the Gators have scored only 3 fewer points (313) than the combined point totals from all of Vandy’s games (316). Florida needs this game to keep any hope alive to defend their SEC East title. Vandy needs this game to become bowl eligible. Vandy certainly has the defense to bother Florida, particularly with a banged up Tebow, but there’s no way he’s held to negative rushing yds like he was last weekend. While this game will be close, the Gators will find a way to pull it out in the end, but not by 2 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Vanderbilt

Troy (6-2) @ (#10, #10)Georgia (6-2, 4-2)
12:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Georgia -16.5

Georgia looks to extend their non-conference home winning streak to 20 games as the host Troy this weekend. This will be the first meeting between these two schools, though UGA is 6-0 all-time against Sun Belt teams. Troy is 1-7 all-time against SEC teams, including losses to Arkansas and Florida to open the season. UGA is 66-17-2 in Homecoming games, though their 11-game homecoming winning streak was snapped last year by Vanderbilt.

This is a tougher game for the ‘Dawgs than they might want, particularly coming off such an emotional win last week over Florida. This Trojan team can score points, having scored at least 24 in every game, including 26 and 31 against Arkansas and Florida respectively. For the season, they are averaging nearly 450 ypg and 34.5 ppg. The ‘Dawgs have been marked by inconsistency all season, but have moved the ball fairly well in every game except South Carolina. RB Moreno should have another big game, as the Trojan D surrenders 200 rushing ypg (5.5 ypc).

This one will be close, but Troy will have no answer for the ‘Dawg RBs. UGA will be able to pound the ball at will, and Stafford will have some time to make some throws. What they cannot do is get caught looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Auburn. Both teams break 20, but too much Moreno in the 2nd half means a UGA victory.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Troy

Northwestern State (3-5) @ Ole Miss (2-7, 0-6)
1:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

This will be the second meeting all-time between these two schools, with Ole Miss claiming a 27-7 victory last season again HC Orgeron’s alma mater. The Rebels are 38-10 since 1994 in non-conference home games.

The Rebels will take the field Saturday without DL Hardy, their best player and the SEC’s leader in sacks and TFL. They’ll also have something of a QB controversy, as starter Adams has been ineffective and injury-prone of late, though backup Schaeffer has been equally as bad. None of that will matter this weekend against the 1-AA Demons. RB Green-Ellis has scored just 2 TDs this season, but should get back in the end zone in this game. Expect the Rebels to pound the ball with Green-Ellis and run a simplified offense to try and build some confidence back for Adams. Orgeron picks up his 10th career win as Ole Miss’ head coach.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: N/A

Tennessee Tech (3-5) @ (#19, #16)Auburn (6-3, 4-2)
1:30 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

This will be the first meeting between these two schools. Auburn is 67-8-5 all-time in Homecoming games, including their current 15-game win streak. The 1-AA Golden Eagles are riding a 4-game losing streak. This is their first game against a 1-A opponent since last September when they were edged by Middle Tennessee State 44-0.

Auburn played another tight game last week against Ole Miss before scoring a late touchdown to seal the victory, their 5th in 6 games. The Golden Eagles and their porous defense (59 points to Sanford last weekend) will be a welcome sight after 3 straight grueling divisional games. With a huge rivalry game looming next weekend against Georgia, HC Tuberville will probably rest his starter late in this game. This will most likely be a shutout for the Tigers, as well as an easy day for the offense.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: N/A

LA Lafayette (1-7) @ (#24, NR)Tennessee (5-3, 3-2)
3:00 CDT, PPV
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -29

This will be the second all-time meeting between these two programs, with Tennessee HC Fulmer notching his first career HC win against the Rajun’ Cajuns. The Vols are 4-0 at home this year and averaging 430 ypg and 37.2 ppg. They’re 13-1 in Homecoming games under Fulmer. ULaLa opened the season in South Carolina with a 28-14 loss, and currently rank 9th in ESPN’s Bottom 10.

After a roller coaster win against South Carolina last weekend – complete with a blowing a 21-point lead, a fumble that netted them several yds, and getting a 2nd try at a FG because of a penalty on one of their own players – the Vols actually control their own destiny in the SEC East. The Cajuns bring the 8th ranked rushing attack in the country (242.5 rushing ypg), but the Vol run D should handle it well, despite ranking 9th in the conference and yielding 160 ypg. They’ll be looking to bounce from surrendering 501 yds to the Gamecocks last weekend. Offensively, the Vols should have no problems moving the ball against an ULaLa defense that gives up 38.4 ppg. QB Ainge and RB Foster should all have plenty of time and space with which to operate. Vols win this one big and probably beat the number.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

(#3, #3)LSU (7-1, 4-1) @ (#17, #18)Alabama (6-2, 4-1)
3:00 CDT, CBS
Wednesday's Line: LSU -7

Alabama has dominated this series all-time, holding a 43-22-5 lead. LSU has had the upper hand recently, winning 4 straight and 6 of 7, including 3 straight in Tuscaloosa. The road team is 7-4 in the last 11 years and LSU HC Miles is 2-0 against Alabama. This game features the SEC’s #1 scoring defense (LSU, 15.4ppg) against the #6 scoring defense (Alabama, 20.8). Both teams face off-field distractions. The Crimson Tide may be without the same 5 players suspended for the Tennessee game 2 weeks ago as the NCAA further investigates the Textbook violations. LSU will definitely be without the services of LB Odom and back up QB Perrilloux, who were suspended following their involvement in a brawl.

The key for the Tide will be finding ways to move the ball against LSU’s defense. Alabama had success throwing the ball last year, as QB Wilson hit for 291 yds and 2 TDs. The 369 yds the Tide put up were the most LSU allowed in 2006. This year though, the Tigers are allowing just 160.6 ypg and an 8/13 TD/INT ratio. Defensively, the gameplanning was a made a little simpler with the absence of the oft-troubled Perrilloux and the option threat he presents. UPDATE: LB Odom and walk-on Benton have been kicked off the team, while Perrilloux wasn't. He still won't make the trip to Tuscaloosa though, according to the The Huntsville Times.

LSU will rely exclusively on QB Flynn this game, so the stable of RBs will have to perform well. Bama sports the SEC’s 5th best rushing defense, allowing 131 ypg, so LSU will have its work cut out for them. The bye last week allowed additional time for DL Dorsey to heal his knee he injured after being chop blocked against Auburn 2 weeks ago. Alabama has given up just 14 sacks this year, but that number could rise significantly if Dorsey is back to 100%.

The best thing for Miles to do is to step back out of the way and let his players win the game. LSU has the talent advantage in the majority of key matchups, and doesn’t need Miles to jeopardize that with questionable judgment calls. He’s pushed mostly the right buttons so far this season, but a loss here would give LSU 2 this season and drop them behind Alabama in the West. What’s worse, it would be a loss to former LSU HC Saban, which would haunt Miles until next year’s rematch in Baton Rouge.

The atmosphere for this game will be electric. LSU fans (if not the players) have had this game circled since Saban abandoned the Miami Dolphins to come back to the SEC. The pressure in this game lies squarely on LSU though, as they still have a shot at a national title and were picked to win the West. When it’s all said and done, LSU is too deep at RB and too strong defensively for Alabama to hang with them for 60 minutes. The game will be close for a while, but a late Jacob Hester TD will ice the game.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

(#23, #25)S. Carolina (6-3, 3-3) @ Arkansas (5-3, 1-3)
7:00 CDT, ESPN2
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -4.5

Arkansas leads this series 9-6 all-time, including last year’s 26-20 win in Columbia. Arkansas HC Nutt is 6-3 against the Gamecocks.

While last week’s lost all but cost them a shot at the SEC East, the Gamecocks are still playing to improve their bowl standings. HC Spurrier has gone to something of a QB platoon system, as SR Mitchell got the majority of snaps last week, despite Smelley getting the start. They moved the ball well all game – 501 total yds – but committed 4 turnovers and missed several opportunities to win the game. They’ll be facing a tougher pass defense this week, as the Razorbacks lead the conference in pass defense efficiency, but opportunities for RB Boyd will be there, as the Hogs rank 8th in rush D (150 ypg).

For the Razorbacks, this game serves as another opportunity to flex their running muscles. South Carolina has real trouble stopping the run (169.2 ypg, 10th in SEC) and Arkansas far and away leads the conference with 287.6 ypg. RB McFadden shredded USC last year for 219 yds and 2 TDs. This season, he and RB Jones rank 1/2 in the conference with 124.1 and 107.9 ypg respectively. The pressure – as usual – will be on the Arkansas QB – whether Dick or Emert – to provide at least some threat of an aerial attack. WR Monk had 8 catches for 192 yds last season, but caught his first passes of the season just last week and may not be much of a factor against a very strong USC pass d (153.7 ypg, 1st in SEC).

According to the stats comparison I did, these are the league's most over-valued (USC) and under-valued (Ark) teams. The once stout Gamecock D has been decimated by injuries, and it’s taking its toll. Even when healthy though, they struggled to stop the run, and they’ll struggle this weekend in Fayetteville against the best 2 backs in the league. The Razorbacks will be able to move the ball at will on the ground and the defense will play with a renewed confidence, sending Spurrier to his 3rd straight loss.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Week 9 Official Scorecard

For those of you playing along at home...

SEC Football Trivia

Week 8 Predictions

Another thin slate this weekend, with only 6 games for a second consecutive week. The Georgia Bulldogs take the weekend off, while the Mississippi State brand head to West Virginia for a big non-conference tilt. A couple of big games this weekend with UF@UK and the yearly 3rd Saturday in October showdown between Alabama and Tennessee.

Here’s how the weekend will shake out…

Saturday
(#21, #20) Tennessee (4-2, 2-1) @ Alabama (5-2, 3-1)
11:30 CDT, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Pick ‘Em

The times have definitely changed when this game is available for JP LFS to pick up to air at 11:30. The Tide lead this series 44-38-7 all-time, but the Volunteers are 10-2 the last 12 years. The home team has won the last 3 meetings.

The Volunteers won on the road last week in Starkville, rolling up 47- yds of offense against a very good MSU defense. Tennessee leads the conference in passing yds per game with 270.5, and trails only Kentucky in passing TDs with 13. They’ll be facing a Tide D that is last in the league in passing TDs surrendered with 12. RBs Foster and Hardesty combined for 217 yds last week, and will be looking for similar numbers against the Tide.

After a 2-game slide, the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back down to the wire wins against Houston and Ole Miss. QB Wilson threw the ball 40 times last week against the Rebels but didn’t find the end zone. He struggled against UT last year, completing only 45% of his passes for 158 yds. He’ll have an opportunity to improve on those numbers against a soft UT pass D ranked 10th in conference.

This could be a high scoring affair, as both teams move the ball well consistently, but don’t always stop the other team from doing the same. Fulmer – as much grief as he takes from UT fans and opposing fans alike – owns Bama, much to the Tide’s chagrin. This year will be more of the same. The Tide have scraped by the last two weeks against inferior opponents, but their luck runs out Saturday against the Vols. The Vols are playing well right now, and will pick up their now customary 3rd Saturday in October win.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

Vanderbilt (3-3, 1-3) @ (#6, #6) South Carolina (6-1, 3-1)
11:30 CDT, PPV
Wednesday's Line: South Carolina -13.5

South Carolina leads this series all time 14-2, including victories the last 7 years. USC HC Spurrier will look to improve to 15-0 all time against Vanderbilt, a record he achieved against Kentucky 2 weeks ago.

For the Commodores, their season is approaching desperation mode. They led UGA by 10 last week at half, but were held scoreless in the 2nd half and lost on a last second FG. WR Earl Bennett continued to struggle against quality SEC teams this year, as the QB duo of Nickson and Adams can’t seem to get him the ball. Even with Bennett needing just 4 catches to become the SEC’s all-time leader in receptions, there’s no guarantee he’ll get there this weekend. USC’s pass D ranks 3rd nationally, surrendering less than 150 ypg. If RB Jackson-Garrison is ever going to have a breakout game, this would be a good time to have it against the soft USC run D. Yards through the air will be much tougher to come by.

The Gamecocks sleep walked through the second half of their game last week against UNC and it almost cost them, as the Tarheels had chances in the 4th quarter, but were unable to convert. QB Smelley continued to wage battle with UGA’s Moreno and Bama’s Grant for SEC Freshman of the Year, as he improved to 4-0 as a starter. This will be a good game for Spurrier to work on shoring up a porous run defense, as well as build on RB Cory Boyd’s 95-yd performance last week, his 2nd highest of the season. He and RB Mike Davis have 9 TDs between them this season, but have yet to score rushing TDs in the same game. That could change this week.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Commodores win this game. Unless the Gamecocks are looking ahead to the huge showdown with Tennessee next weekend, it’s hard to imagine this game is close. Vandy’s offense is struggling, ranking 11th in conference with just over 320 ypg. The Gamecocks will win this one comfortably, setting up a big game with major SEC East implications next weekend in Knoxville.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Arkansas (3-3, 0-3) @ Ole Miss (2-5, 0-4)
1:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -5

Arkansas leads this series either 28-24-1 or 29-23-1, depending on which side you ask. They’ve won 5 of the last 6, including last year’s 38-3 win, which was the most-lopsided win in series history.

The Razorbacks are coming off of their worst offensive outing of the year, after gaining only 193 total yds and 11 1st downs against a surging Auburn team. The defense played well though, holding Auburn to 3 FGs. RB/KR Felix Jones must be licking his lips as he leads the conference in KR average, and Ole Miss ranks last in KO coverage. With the Rebel offense much improved over last year, Jones will get a few shots to break one for a TD, just like he did to open last year’s rout in Fayetteville. QB Casey Dick will have a chance to play well against a Rebel pass D that ranks 11th in conference in pass efficiency defense. There’s even a chance that top WR Marcus Monk gets significant PT this week.

After the most frustrating loss in a growing number of painfully close SEC losses, it will be a real test of the coaching staff to get the Rebels ready to play. They were embarrassed last season in Fayetteville, and a win here would help out that game and last week’s debacle out of their minds. Rebels bottled up McFadden last season, as he had on 65 yds on 17 carries. But without all-world (apparently soon to be all-pro) LB Patrick Willis in the middle of the field, the Rebels’ run D is bad (at best), allowing 194.6 ypg, only slightly better than UK’s 194.7.

Unless the team has completely quit on Nutt, there’s no way that DMac and Jones get bottled up like that again. There’s a good chance the Rebels come out flat this week after last’s emotional game, and they’ve struggled against the run all year. Both teams will reach the 20s and first one to 30 wins. That’ll be the Hogs.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Mississippi State (4-3, 1-3) @ (#9, #9)West Virginia (5-1)
2:30 CDT, ESPN Regional
Wednesday's Line: West Virginia -24.5

Last year’s 42-14 win by West Virginia was the first ever meeting between these two schools. The Mountaineers gashed Mississippi State for 314 yds rushing, which is the most the Bulldogs have allowed under Croom. The Mountaineers are coming off a bye week, which gave star QB Pat White an extra week to rest his legs and chest, both of which caused him to miss portions of WVU’s last 2 games. They’re currently averaging 43 ppg and 510 yds of offense.

This will be a real test for the Bulldog defense. The D has carried them throughout the season, as the offense and the QB carousel has been paltry at best. The Mountaineers lead the Big East in Total Defense, and rank 4th in ppg allowed. FR QB Carroll played well at times last week, as the Bulldogs had a few sustained drives, but too many 3 & Outs. How he performs in a hostile, unfamiliar environment remains to be seen.

Last year’s score is misleading, as WVU tacked on 2 TDs in the final 3 minutes of the game. This is an improved MSU team – at least defensively – and WVU has a huge game next week against Rutgers, in a game that will greatly impact the Big L East standings. WVU will win, but MSU’s defense will keep it within 3 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: West Virginia
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

(#15, #14)Florida (4-2, 2-2) @ (#7,#8)Kentucky (6-1, 2-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
Wednesday's Line: Florida -6.5

The Gators travel to Lexington this weekend for an unusually important game for both these schools. Florida owns this series all time 40-17, and has won a ridiculous 20 straight against the ‘Cats by an average of 23 ppg. When ranked in the top 25, Florida is 24-3 against Kentucky. Kentucky, though, is 3-1 against the Gators when the ‘Cats are ranked.

The Gators had a much-needed off weekend last week. With QB Tebow getting banged around so much (105 carries, nearly 40 more than 2nd most on team) and a 2-game losing streak, the extra prep time will serve them well. The youthful Gators failed to close out LSU in Baton Rouge in their last game, but that experience will serve them well in the future. Kentucky ranks last in the conference in rushing D, so Tebow and the host of other Gators who run the ball will have their opportunities to make plays.

As for the Wildcats, all attention will be on QB Woodson. He played very well down the stretch last week against LSU, finishing with 250 yds and 3 TDs. While his completion percentages have been down the last 2 weeks, much of that credit goes to the pass D of LSU and South Carolina. The Gators – while very good against the run – struggle against the pass, allowing 230 ypg, 11th in conference. Starting RB Little is mostly like out for this game and next, meaning the ‘Cats will rely on FR RB Derrick Locke. He played well last week, but can he duplicate that success against Florida?

This concludes Kentucky’s brutal 3-game stretch against Top-10 caliber teams. They’ve split the first two, but who knows how much they’ll have left for the Gators? Meanwhile the Gators are coming off consecutive losses, and there’s no way they drop a 3rd straight. HC Meyer is 21-2 with an extra week to prepare. Both teams should move the ball well, as their offense match up well with the opposing Ds. This one might be close for a while, but in the battle of Heisman candidate QBs, a reinvigorated and rested Tebow will be too much for the ‘Cats in the 2nd half.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

(#17, #18)Auburn (5-2, 3-1) @ (#4, #5)LSU (6-1, 3-1)
8:00 CDT, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: LSU -11.5

One of the most even rivalries in the conference is renewed this weekend in Baton Rouge, with LSU holding a 21-19-1 lead over Auburn all time. The home team has won the last 7 games in this series, including Auburn’s 7-3 win on the Plains last year.

Not coincidentally, Auburn’s recent hot streak began when QB Cox stopped turning the ball over, which began when the offensive line started jelling as a unit. He’s completed 67.1% of his passes and thrown just 1 INT in the last 4 games – all wins. RB Brad Lester’s 2nd game of the season went well as he picked up another 89 yds. He and Ben Tate form a formidable tandem that will pressure that much-ballyhooed LSU defensive front.

As for LSU, they’ll need better play out of the QB position than what they got in Lexington last week. QB Flynn completed just 48% of his passes and had a QB Rating of 83.8. With the smashmouth brand of football LSU plays, they need more than that. LSU ranks near the top of the conference in nearly every significant defensive statistic, and they’ll need an All-American effort from Glenn Dorsey and Titus Jackson to bottle up Auburn’s power run game.

This has all the makings of another defensive slugfest. LSU ranks 2nd in the country in total D (223.1 ypg) and Auburn is 9th (279 ypg). The last 3 games have been decided by a total of 8 points, with Auburn winning 2/3. While these teams certainly seem more evenly matched than they did after Week 3, LSU will win this game. LSU is a different team under the lights of Tiger Stadium. The crowd noise, combined with a team desperate to stay in the National Title hunt will prove to be a little too much for the Auburn Tigers.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Auburn

Week 7 Official Scorecard

For those of you playing along at home...

Sport's Illustrated, SEC 75th Anniversary Commemorative 2007 Issue

Week 7 Predictions

Only 6 games on the SEC slate this weekend, with 5 conference games, South Carolina visiting Chapel Hill, and the Gators taking the week off to lick their wounds.

Here's how the weekend will shake out...

Saturday
Alabama (4-2, 2-1) @ Ole Miss (2-4, 0-3)
11:30 CDT, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -6.5

This is one of the more lopsided rivalries historically in the SEC with Alabama holding a 43-9-2 record in the series, including 17 of the last 20 and 3 in a row. The last 2 wins have come by a total of 6 points though, and the Rebels have won 2 of the last 3 in Oxford.

For the Tide, QB Wilson has actually regressed this year under HC Saban. His QB rating is down, as are his ypg and ypa. The offense has been carried most of the season by RBs Grant and Coffee with more than 900 yds and 8 TDs between them. The defense has been steady under Saban’s tutelage, but has given up 21+ points in 4 straight games. The Tide secondary will be forced to handle a revamped Ole Miss aerial attack, led by QB Adams and WR Wallace.

As for the Rebels, last week’s shutout couldn’t have come at a better time for a beleaguered defense, but it’ll be a different story against the Tide Saturday morning. The Rebels D still ranks last in the league in rush defense (208.2 ypg) and will be tested by the power running game of the Tide. LB Ashlee Palmer is coming off a career day against LTU last weekend and he and All-Conference Greg Hardy will need to bottle up the run game enough to force the Tide to rely on Wilson to make tough throws.

Both teams snapped a multi-game losing streak last weekend against out of conference opponents. You have to figure that with all the close games this season and last, the Rebels have to beat somebody they’re not supposed to. While Alabama owns the Rebels all-time, the elements are in place for the Rebels pull this one out. I look for the defense to build off of last week’s shutout and pressure Wilson into bad throws. This will the first signature win of the Orgeron era in Oxford.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

(#25, NR)Tennessee (3-2, 1-1) @ Mississippi St. (4-2, 1-2)
1:30 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -7

Tennessee leads this series all time with a 26-15-1 record. The Vols have won 7 of the last 8 in this series, including the last 4 by an average score of 43-17. Mississippi State is receiving votes in both polls for the first time in years.

Much like Auburn, Tennessee experienced something of a rebirth last week with a drubbing of Georgia. Most telling in their win was that they did without much production from QB Ainge, who threw for 165 yds and 0 TDs. A trick play and 190 yds and 4 rushing TDs gave the Vols the easy win. The Vols pass defense, which ranks second to last in ypg and efficiency against, will get something of a reprieve this weekend against MSU’s QB situation, but their 9th in conference run defense can expect to be pounded from MSU’s first snap.

The Bulldogs manhandled UAB in the second half last week, outscoring them 27-3. The 2-headed RB attack of Ducre’ and Dixon combined for 172 yd and 3 TDs, but the QB was again terrible (11/20, 199yds, 0/2 ratio). The Bulldogs are last in the league in total yards by nearly 30 ypg. While they’ll be able to run the ball this weekend against the Vols, at some point in the game, the QB – whether it’s Carroll or Henig – will have to step up and make a big throw on a 3rd down. The Dead Guy just doesn’t see that happening.

The Bulldogs are flying high after picking up their 4th win last week, but like I said in an earlier post, reality sets in Saturday. Tennessee has too many athletes on the defensive side of the ball to be beaten by a one-dimensional opponent like the Bulldogs. With the Bulldogs bowing up to stop UT’s run game, Ainge should have another solid game. The Vols will cruise to an easy victory in Starkville.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

(#1, #1)LSU (6-0, 3-0) @ (#17, #18)Kentucky (5-1, 1-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
Wednesday's Line: LSU -9.5

LSU leads this series all-time 38-15-1, including a 49-0 thumping last year in Baton Rouge. LSU has won the last 4, as UK hasn’t won since 1999 (31-5 win). LSU is 23-3-1 against UK when ranked in the Top 25.

LSU took over the top spot in both polls last week after a hard-fought victory over Florida. I will eschew the “immovable object versus the irresistible force” comparison many are making about this game. Suffice it to say, LSU’s defense has lived up to its preseason billing, leading the conference in basically every defensive category, including sacks, ppg, turnovers forced, rushing defense, and total defense. The offense hasn’t been bad either, putting up 37.8 ppg, 4th in conference.

Meanwhile, Kentucky’s offense continues to be the best in conference statistically, but the defense… well, isn’t. Neither was clicking last year in Baton Rogue, and it’ll take the best effort of the season from both sides to win this game. QB Woodson looked shaky against South Carolina last weekend, but back home at the friendly confines, he should be more confident, and hopefully hold on to the ball a little better. This is the 2nd of 3 games in UK’s midseason Schedule of Doom. An 0-3 record would almost certainly relegate them to a bottom rung standing in the SEC East.

It’ll be interesting to see how much LSU has left in the tank after such a draining game against Florida last weekend. If they were a team that relied more on their offense, I’d be more concerned about a letdown in this game. But that defense and those RBs are too good and too deep to have a let down. The D will play significantly better than they did against Florida last week as they line up against a more traditional offense in UK. LSU wins, though an inspired effort by Woodson keeps the margin less than 10.

While this loss will disheartening to the Big Blue Nation, it certainly won’t compare to the last time the Tigers came to Lexington.


Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Kentucky

(#7, #12)South Carolina (5-1, 3-1) @ North Carolina (2-4)
2:30 CDT, ABC
Wednesday's Line: USC -7

These border rivals meet for the first time since 1991, with UNC holding a 34-16-4 edge in the all-time series. Both are founding members of the ACC before USC left for the much greener pastures of the SEC. HC Spurrier is 3-0 against UNC from his days roaming the sidelines for Duke. These two head coaches met in the 2000 Sugar Bowl, with Davis’ Miami Hurricanes besting Spurrier’s Gators 37-20.

The Tar Heels are coming off a big upset win last week over Miami, while the Gamecocks are riding high from their big win over UK. Talent-wise, this game shouldn’t be close. USC is ranked in the top 10 in the country for the first time since 2001, and they currently sit atop the standings in the SEC East. Their #1 ranked passing defense should handle UNC QB Yates, who has thrown for ~1400 yds and 9 TDs this season. USC QB Smelley continues to settle into his role as starter, tossing for 256 yds and 2 TDs against UK last week.

The Tarheels have been in every game this season except a 37-10 loss to USF. HC Davis will certainly have them in the top 25 by 2009, but it’s just not there yet this season. The Gamecocks will certainly have to avoid a letdown, but after a close 1st half, the defense will take over and USC wins easily.

Straight Up Winner: USC
Against the Spread: USC

(#24, #23)Georgia (4-2, 2-2) @ Vanderbilt (3-2, 1-2)
5:00 CDT, ESPN2
Wednesday's Line: Georgia -7

Georgia is 47-18-2 all-time against Vanderbilt, including 21-3-1 in the last 25. Vandy did spring the upset last year 24-22 in Athens though, snapping a 12-game losing streak to UGA. Vandy hasn’t beaten UGA in back to back years since 1956 – 1958. They haven’t beaten UGA in Nashville since 1991.

Georgia is the most schizophrenic team in conference, if not the country. One week after rushing for 300+ yds against Ole Miss, they managed less than 70 against a Tennessee defense that had served as a punching bag in its other two games against BCS competition. QB Stafford is at the heart of the inconsistency with game-by-game completion percentages of 75%, 43.2%, 70%, 54.3%, 61.9%, and 48.5%. FR RB Knowshon Moreno will have to step up in this game, as SR RB Thomas Brown is out with a broken collarbone.

All-SEC WR Earl Bennett needs just 7 catches to become the league’s all time leader in receptions. With no other offensive threat to mention – WR Sean Walker is 2nd on team with 10 receptions – teams have been effectively limiting Bennett’s touches. If Vandy is to win this game, Bennett has to get the ball early and often. That starts with good OL play, allowing RB Jackson-Garrison to get into open space. The ‘Dawgs are 5th in both passing and rushing defense, so yards may be tough to come by for the Commodores.

Based on the Stafford’s good-bad pattern, he’s due for a solid game in this one. Vandy has one of the better pass statistical pass defenses in the conference, but other than Ole Miss, hasn’t really faced a strong passing offense. The ‘Dawgs have their backs against the wall in this one, as another loss – particularly in the division – would all but eliminate them from title hopes. The ‘Dawgs bounce back from their UT loss and win a close game in Nashville.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Vanderbilt

(#22, #25)Auburn (4-2, 2-1) @ Arkansas (3-2, 0-2)
6:45 CDT, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -2.5

Auburn leads this series 9-6-1 all-time, including 3 of the last 4. The Razorbacks upset Auburn last year 27-10. The visiting team has won 4 of the last 5. Arkansas HC Houston Nutt is 6-3 against Auburn HC Tommy Tuberville.

Break up the Auburn Tigers. The Tigers manhandled Vandy last week, holding them 221 total yds, including just 88 passing. The Tigers also sport the conference’s 3rd best rushing D, which will be tested to the utmost extreme Saturday against the conference’s two best RBs in McFadden and Felix Jones. After opening the season with sub-par games, QB Cox has rebounded with 3 straight solid outings. He’s not throwing for a lot of TDs, but since the loss to Mississippi State he’s completed 71% of his passes and only tossed 1 INT.

The same can’t be said about the Hogs’ passing game. QB Casey Dick has yet to complete 60% of his passes for a game, and hasn’t thrown for more than 210 yds in any game. DMac and Felix Jones are great, but they need some help if the Hogs expect to win. The Hogs lead the SEC in total ypg, mainly due to their ridiculous rushing totals, but their defense ranks 9th in points allowed and ypg. While Auburn ranks 9th in total offense, those numbers are slightly skewed by pitiful offensive showings earlier in the year.

All the distractions surrounding this Arkansas team – particularly Nutt – will either serve as a rallying point for the team or the breaking point. The sheer omnipresence of the HogNation’s discontent for Nutt makes me think it’ll impact the team negatively this weekend. Well that, and the fact that Auburn is rolling right now after back to back conference wins, and the Hog defense has been less-than-stellar all season. McFadden and Jones will get their numbers, but an inefficient passing game and porous D will drop Arkansas to 0-3 in conference.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Week 6 Predictions

After last weekend offered mostly drab games (on paper), this weekend is back with a vengeance, with 3 huge matchups that will go a long in shaping the SEC East. Every team is back in action this week, including several homecoming games.

Here's how the weekend will shake out...

Thursday
(#8, #8)Kentucky (5-0, 1-0)@(#11,#18)S. Carolina(4-1, 2-1)
6:30 CDT, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: South Carolina -3.5

Kudos to the ESPN scheduling committee for picking this game out in the preseason. They're certainly getting more than they bargained for with this one. South Carolina has won 7 in a row in this series and HC Spurrier is 14-0 against the Wildcats. The series has been close of late though, with 4 of the last 5 games decided by a TD or less, including the Gamecocks' 24-17 victory in Lexington last year.

UK QB Woodson continued to stake a legitimate claim towards Heisman consideration with a 5 TD effort last week against FAU. The Wildcats have scored at least 40 points in every game this year, but that streak will end tomorrow night against a stout Gamecock defense. The Gamecock pass D is the best in conference, allowing just 106 ypg, so Woodson and his WRs will be tested.The question will be can the Wildcats win without scoring 40+?

As for the Gamecocks, I'd be more confident in this defense had it not suffered season ending injuries to two starters, including All America LB Jasper Brinkley. The defense bowed up against Mississippi State last week in the second half, but the Bulldogs have no QB. The Wildcats have one of the - if not the - best in the country. The Gamecocks will undoubtedly play a ball-control type game, pounding the porous Wildcat D with RBs Corey Boyd and Mike Davis. QB Smelley will be asked to be very smart with the ball, as the opportunistic Wildcat D has forced 14 TOs this year.

Something's gotta give... Kentucky leads the conference in scoring, averaging better than 46 ppg. South Carolina is second in the conference in defensive ppg, allowing only 15.6. I picked the Gamecocks to win the East in the preseason and I stand by that pick. Much like their game against UGA earlier this season, I think the Gamecocks are the less-talented team offensively in this matchup. That being said, Spurrier lives for games like these. I'm not saying UK isn't for real this year - they are - it's just that Spurrier is the master game-planner. The Gamecocks win a close one.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Saturday
Vanderbilt(3-1, 1-1) @ Auburn(3-2, 1-1)
11:30 CDT, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Auburn -7.5

Auburn has won 12 in a row in this series. The games on the Plains haven't been close either, as each of the 6 games there resulted in 17+ point victories for the Tigers. Auburn improved to 16-4 in their last 20 games against the SEC East with their victory in Gainesville last weekend. They'll welcome back RB Brad Lester this weekend, who's finished serving his 6-game academics-related suspension. He was slated to be the starter this season before his troubles arose. He won't start, but the staff expects him to play.

Is there a more painful sounding injury than the one AU DE Quentin Groves suffered? 3 dislocated toes? Anyway, AU's offense came to life in the second half 2 weeks ago, and played a steady, consistent game against UF last week. When the OL gives him time, QB Brandon Cox can be an efficient field general, capable of leading a team to big wins. The problem has been keeping him upright this year. Vandy does have 10 sacks through 4 games, so that will be an interesting matchup to watch unfold.

Vandy WR Earl Bennett got back in the end zone last week, with 9 catches for 93 yds and a TD. While the Vandy D forced 6 TOs, the Auburn D must be licking their chops thinking of VU QB Nickson, who threw 4 INTs of his own, and has just a 6/5 TD/INT ratio on the season. For Vandy to win this game, they'll need a breakout game from RB Cassen Jackson-Garrison, who's averaging just over 60 ypg.

Last week's win over Florida breathed new life in this Tiger team many had left for dead. All that would be thrown away with a slip up Saturday. Every thing is they're favor... They're more talented, the favorite, the home team, and confident after last week's big game. They'll come out and seize momentum early and cruise to a fairly easy victory.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Louisiana Tech (1-3) @ Ole Miss (1-4, 0-3)
1:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -13

It's homecoming weekend in Oxford as the Rebels take on the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech. Ole Miss is 7-1 all time against La Tech, but the two schools haven’t played since 1992. The Bulldogs are 7-54-2 all time against current SEC schools.

Since battling Hawai’i tooth and nail in week 2 before falling in OT, La Tech has dropped consecutive games on the road to California and Fresno State. QB Zac Champion has thrown for 586 in 4 games with a 5.2 ratio and RB has rushed for 361 yds and 3 TDs.

The Rebels battled Florida down to the wire and were tied with UGA late into the 3rd quarter, but have not been able to finish. WR Mike Wallace has emerged as one of the league’s most dangerous big play threats, averaging 24.3 ypc and scoring 5 TDs, including 4 TDs of 45+ yards.

Louisiana Tech views this as a statement game with a possible win over a BCS school. The Rebels will be pressed to maintain focus after playing so hard and so well for 7 of the last 8 quarters and having nothing but 2 conference losses to show for it. It seems the Rebels are finally coming together as a team, but just need a little extra oomph to get that first “signature win” for HC Orgeron. This weekend is a good place to start.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

UAB (1-3) @ Mississippi State (3-2, 1-2)
1:30 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Mississippi State -19

This is the third meeting between these two schools, and the visiting team has won the previous 2, including the Bulldog’s 16-10 win in OT in Birmingham last season. UAB is 2-9 all time against SEC teams. MSU can eclipse their season win total from each of HC Croom’s first 3 seasons with a 4th victory Saturday.

This will be UAB’s 4th road game of the season, having already lost at Michigan St, Florida St, and Tulsa. QB Sam Hunt has thrown for 580 yds in 4 games with a 5/3 ratio and RB Rashad Slaughter has rushed for 135 yds and 0 TDs. Needless to say, MSU’s stout D should have a field day with these guys.

Starting at QB for the Bulldogs will be Michael Henig Josh Ridell Wesley Carroll. He’s completed less than 45% of his passes this season with a 0/0 ratio. Fortunately for him, he’s got a healthy pair of RBs to hand off to in Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, who have combined for 662 yds and 7 TDs. The MSU staff can ease Carroll into a starter’s role against a soft Blazer D, allowing 236 rushing ypg. The majority of the play calling will center around hand off left, hand off right, etc.

For the second time in 4 seasons, UAB serves as MSU’s homecoming game. The Bulldogs are hoping that’s where the similarities end, as the Blazers pulled the 27-13 victory in 2003. The Blazers are far worse than their 2003 5-win team, and even without a QB, the Bulldogs are much improved from their 3-win team, so that won’t happen. MSU picks up a much-needed victory, though the spread may be a little too large to cover.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: UAB

Houston(2-2) @ Alabama(3-2, 2-1)
2:00 CDT, PPV
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -11

Alabama is 9-0 all time against the Cougars and are 6-0 vs CUSA since 2001 and 13-1 in their last 14. This is Alabama's homecoming game.

The Cougars bring a high-powered offense to Tuscaloosa this weekend (33 ppg). QB Case Keenum has thrown for 656 yds in 4 games with a 5/5 ratio and RB Anthony Alridge has rushed for 443 yds and 3 TDs. Their big play offense features 5 guys who have caught passes for 27+ yards. The Cougars are coming off a 37-35 home loss to Eastern Carolina. Despite the loss, the Cougars still lead CUSA in total defense, allowing 364.2 ypg.

As for the Tide, if they're ever going to find any sort of consistency on offense, this will be the game it happens. QB Wilson played well against FSU last week, throwing for 240 yds and 2 TDs, but the Tide's ground game - which had been the strength of the team so far this season - was held in check, mustering only 89 yards. The Cougars are giving up 178 ypg on the ground, so it's a good chance for FR RB Terry Grant to get back on track.

Tide fans want to see something from this team this weekend. They've dropped back to back close games, and now face one of the top teams in C-USA. The Cougars and sport a very tough passing D, so the Tide will need to come out and control the clock and the line of scrimmage with a strong running game. The Tide D will take advantage of a sometimes sloppy offense (-6 TO margin) and roll to a 2 TD victory.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

(#12, #11) Georgia(4-1, 2-1) @ Tennessee(2-2, 0-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee-2

One of the SEC's better rivalries will be renewed in Knoxville this Saturday when UGA rolls into town. The away team has won 4 straight games in this series, including UT's 51-33 thrashing of the Dawgs in Athens last season. UGA HC Mark Richt is 3-0 in Knoxville. This is the first time in 6 seasons that both teams haven't been ranked.

The Dawgs are coming off a 45-17 win over Ole Miss last week, in a game that was tied late in the 3rd Q. UGA wore down the Rebels with 300+ yds rushing and scored the last 4 TDs the game. This doesn’t bode well for the Volunteers, whose defense has been eaten alive by speedy BCS opponents Cal and Florida. Here’s where they rank in conference:
- 37.5 ppg (12th)
- 250.8 ypg passing (11th)
- 188.2 ypg rushing (9th)
- 5.2 yards per carry against (12th)
- 6.5 yards per play against (12th)

For the Vols, it's time for the defense to step up and do anything. 52 ppg in 2 games against BCS competition is unacceptable. There will be a real sense of urgency surrounding this game, as another loss would drop UT to 0-2 in the SEC and greatly increase the heat around HC Fulmer’s derriere. QB Erik Ainge is 2-0 against UGA as a starter. The Vols high powered offense (34.5 ppg) makes them a threat to anyone they play. They should put up some points against the Dawgs, but their defense is too large a liability to overcome. The Vols had an extra week of preparation for this game, but unfortunately, they won't get faster in a week. In something of a high-scoring game, The Dawgs get revenge for last year’s debacle, and spring the ever-so-mild upset.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

UT-Chattanooga (1-3) @ Arkansas (2-2, 0-2)
6:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

Arkansas takes on the 1-AA UTC Moccasins in their first of two “home” games in Little Rock this season, where they’re 20-2 under HC Nutt.

UTC has a -11 TO margin, and has given up 35.3 ppg to the likes of Carson Newman, Jacksonville State, Georgia Southern, and the Citadel. This will be another game where DMac, Felix Jones, and company run wild for a half, then sit and watch the scrubs do the same. Another efficient game from QB Casey Dick will go a long way in building his confidence before SEC play starts back up next week.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: N/A

(#9, #7)Florida (4-1, 2-1) @ (#1, #2)LSU (5-0, 2-0)
7:28 CDT, CBS
Wednesday's Line: LSU -9

What a way to cap off an SEC weekend… Florida @ LSU. Currently the two premiere programs in the conference, both have won BCS titles in the last 5 years. This marks only the second time in history both schools are ranked in the Top 10 when meeting. Florida is 15-4 in the last 19 meetings, including last year’s 23-10 win in Gainesville. While this game may have lost of it luster in the nation’s eyes with UF’s loss last week, it’s still paramount in the shaping of the SEC races.

Since Saturday, the Gators have not only had to deal with their first loss in 12 games, but also some off the field distractions as well, as a few Gators found themselves in unfavorable situations in the eyes of the law. Only time will tell whether that will be a distraction heading into Saturday’s showdown on the bayou.

LSU and Florida are ranked #1 and 2 respectively in the conference in rushing defense, so rushing yards may be tough to come by. LSU has the clear advantage rushing, as their tailback by committee has put up great numbers all year, while Florida relies far too heavily on QB Tebow and WR Harvin in the rushing game. LSU’s defensive speed ot the outside will take those runs away, forcing Tebow to make plays with him arm down the field. Tebow’s passing yards and QB Rating have decreased each of the last three games, and LSU is by far the most talented defense they’ll face this season.

Both Ole Miss and Auburn were able to exploit some weaknesses in Florida’s offense, and LSU’s defense is bigger, stronger, faster, and tackles better than either of theirs. If this were a day game, UF may have a chance, but no way LSU loses under the bright lights of Tiger Stadium.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Week 5 Official Scorecard

For those of you playing along at home...

Football in the Sec (Southeastern Conference) (Inside College Football)

Week 4 Official Scorecard

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Week 3 Recap

Well, it had to come to an end at some point, but I finally missed a game straight up. Actually 3 games straight up. Still a solid week, going 5-3 straight up and 3-2-1 against the spread.

Week 3 Official Scorecard

For those of you playing along at home...

Week 3 Predictions

Saturday
Mississippi State (1-0, 0-0) @ Auburn (1-0, 0-0)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Auburn -13

What looked to be a gimme win for Auburn before the season started, now seems as though it may be something of a battle. Auburn has won 6 in a row in this series, and Mississippi State hasn’t scored in this game since 2004, but this a different Tiger team than the one that's 33-5 the last 3 seasons.

Auburn’s offense has struggled in both games this season, particularly the offensive line. QB Brandon Cox has assumed most of the blame for Auburn’s offensive woes, as he’s barely completed 50% of his passes and has 4 interceptions and just 2 TDs. It doesn’t hep that the Tigers rank last in the conference in rushing ypg either. The defense has played well enough to give them a chance to win, but too many mistakes by Cox and company doomed them against USF.

Mississippi State rebounded from their dismal week 1 performance against LSU to pick up a much needed win against woeful Tulane. The defense played well again, limiting the Green Wave to 243 yards. They’ll face a fired up Tiger team this weekend looking to rebound form last week’s loss. The key matchup will be the Auburn O-Line vs the MSU D-Line.

This will be a low-scoring game, as neither offense is capable of putting up a lot of points against an SEC-caliber defense. It will be all about the in-game adjustments, and Auburn keeping Brandon Cox on his feet. When it comes down to Tuberville vs. Croom, give me the Riverboat Gambler any day of the week, and twice on a football Saturday. Auburn will win the game outright, but the 2 TD line may be too much to ask…

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Western Carolina (0-2) @ (#23, #25)Georgia (1-1, 0-1)
Noon CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

This game against the Catamounts falls at a perfect time for UGA. Their offense was held in check last week against South Carolina, so HC Mark Richt and staff can use this game as an opportunity to get things rolling again. In their other visit to an SEC stadium this year, WCU was rolled 52-6 by Alabama.

After an impressive opening game against Oklahoma State, the Dawgs sputtered badly against South Carolina, scoring scored 23 fewer points and converted only 3/18 3rd downs. QB Matthew Stafford should be able to get things back on track this week, and the holes should be much bigger for RBs Moreno and Lumpkin. With 4 SEC games the next 4 weeks – including 3 on the road – this is their last chance to get things back together.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: N/A

(#22, #24)Tennessee (1-1, 0-0) @ (#5, #3)Florida (2-0, 0-0)
2:30 CST, CBS
Wednesday's Line: Florida -8

This is another huge early season SEC matchup, much like Georgia/South Carolina last week. While both the Gators and Vols have been explosive on offense, averaging 54 and 35 ppg respectively, neither has shown much on defense. Cal ran roughshod over UT in Week 1 while Florida surrendered 336 yards and 31 points to Troy last week.

UT struggled against the team speed of Cal in Week 1, and they’ll be faced with a faster overall team in Florida. The Vols defense played better last week against USM, forcing 3 TOs and only allowing 2/16 3rd down conversions, but they did surrender 354 yards of offense. QB Ainge was fairly sharp again despite a broken pinky on his throwing hand. Not helping UT’s cause is losing defensive captain Antonio Gaines for the season last week to a knee injury.

If human cyborg Tim Tebow can pull this one out, his cult hero status in Gainesville will begin approaching Legendary. In two games this year, he’s already thrown for 536 yards and 6 touchdowns and rushed for 130 more yards. Florida’s going to score, no doubt, but the question remains if they can stop a real team on offense. The Vols will easily be the most explosive offense they face the first 5 games this season and will provide a stiff test for the Gator’s young D.

This has been a remarkably close series of late, with 6 of the last 9 being decided by 4 points or less, including UF’s 21-20 win last year. Both teams know how important this game is, as the loser of this game hasn’t made it to the SEC Championship Game since 1997. This will be a high scoring affair, but Florida’s got too much speed for the Vols to handle for 60 minutes.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

(#16, #16)Arkansas (1-0, 0-0) @ Alabama (2-0, 1-0)
5:45 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -3

Two serious contenders for second place in the SEC West do battle at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa this Saturday. Arkansas is coming off an off weekend, while Alabama slogged out a wet and wild victory in Nashville last week, winning 24-10 over an improved Vanderbilt squad. Arkansas has won 3 of the last 4, including 2 in double overtime.

Alabama dominated last year’s game in every aspect… except for the final score. Constant miscues led to a 24-23 loss in a 2OT game that jumpstarted Arkansas’ unlikely run to the SEC West title. This season, the Tide appear more disciplined than the last few years, having committed only 11 penalties and 1 turnover through 2 games. RB Terry Grant leads the SEC in rushing at 154.5 ypg. and TDs scored with 5.

When it comes to RBs though, Grant will only be the third best in this game. Arkansas’ dynamic duo of Felix Jones and Darren McFadden will be turned loose against a Tide D that is only allowing 66.5 yards per game. In its one game earlier this season, Arkansas ran for 350 yards (7.0 ypc) against Troy. While they won't come close to that, Arkansas should find some success on the ground. The question is, how much success will they have through the air. QB Casey Dick or DMac will need to stretch the Tide D to open up the running lanes for the potent ground attack.

This should be a great game. These are two evenly matched teams and I expect this to be a close game throughout. Despite the fact Alabama is playing at home, I give the slight edge in this one to the Hogs. The power running of DMac and Felix Jones will wear down the Tide defense and the Hogs will score on some kind of trick play late in the game to ice it. The Tide just don't have enough offense through the air to counteract Arkansas' ground game.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

South Carolina State (1-1) @ (#17, #23)South Carolina (2-0, 0-0)
6:00 CST, PPV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

Between the emotional high of beating Georgia on the road last week and the excitement of traveling to Baton Rogue next weekend, it’s a good thing the Gamecocks draw SCSU this weekend. Any kind of “real” opponent here would certainly qualify as a trap game.

While the defense has been stout – 2 TDs allowed in 2 games – and the special teams solid, eventually the Gamecocks will need to score a few more points. With Spurrier lurking on the sidelines, you know there’s always the potential to just draw up a pass play in the dirt, but that explosion has been lacking this year. After missing the first game of the season, QB Blake Mitchell played fairly well against UGA, completing a high percentage of his mostly short, safe passes. He should be able to find a solid rhythm early against SCSU, and build for the remainder of the season.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: N/A

Ole Miss (1-1, 0-0) @ Vanderbilt (1-1, 0-1)
6:00 PM, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Vanderbilt -5

Ole Miss travels to Nashville Saturday in what appears to be their best chance for a road SEC victory since 2004. The Rebels saw their long-stagnant offense come to life against a porous Missouri defense Saturday, while the Commodores not only lost the game, but star QB Nickson is questionable for the game Saturday. The Rebels have won 6/7 in this series, including the 17-10 victory last year.

Former walk-on QB Seth Adams has performed admirably for the Rebels in his two starts, throwing for 506 yds and 4 TDs, including 2 to DE Greg Hardy. All-SEC RB Benjaurvis Green-Ellis rushed for a career high 226 yards last week, and currently ranks 2nd in the conference in ypg. The Rebels have struggled in road games under Orgeron though, going just 2-9.

Vandy All-SEC WR Earl Bennett exploded in week 1 against Richmond, but against a tougher D last week, was held to 52 yards. Ole Miss surrendered 560 yards to Mizzou last week, including 330 through the air. Vandy doesn’t have that type of firepower, particularly if Nickson isn’t available or isn’t 100%. Vandy also doesn’t have the ground game to make up for any decline in the passing game, as they don’t have a single player who’s reached 100 yards yet for the season.

This game is important to both teams. For Vandy, bowl hopes ride on getting this win, while for Ole Miss, this would be the closest thing to a signature win for Orgeron. The Rebels want to use second half of last week’s game as a springboard for better times this season, as they outscored Mizzou 18-3 over the last 27 minutes. Vandy meanwhile will be searching for a ground game and some sort of offensive consistency. The Rebels should get the job done in Nashville Saturday and pull the mild upset.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

(#9, #9)Louisville (2-0) @ Kentucky (2-0, 0-0)
6:30 CST, ESPN Classic
Wednesday's Line: -6.5

While these two schools really dislike each other, even they have to admit this game has the potential to be one of the highest scoring of the year. Both teams sport ridiculously high scoring offenses (65.5 ppg for Louisville, 53 ppg for UK), Heisman candidate QBS (Brian Brohm and Andre Woodson), and defenses that, well, aren’t very good. Louisville gave up 554 yards and 42 points to Middle Tennessee State last week and UK gave 453 yards and 26 first downs to Kent State, and had a very hard time getting off the field.

This has been a tough series for UK lately, as Louisville has won 4 in a row and 7/8, including a 59-28 win in Louisville last season. If Kentucky is going to beat Louisville anytime soon, this is the year to do it. The Triplets – QB Woodson, RB Little, and WR Burton – are 0-3 against the Cardinals and know they can go to a much better bowl than the Music City Bowl if they pull the upset here. The onus falls on the Defense to get off the field and hold an explosive Cardinal offense in check. Even FGs will be something of a victory, as Kentucky will put up a lot of points in this one.

The Wildcats should pull the upset here, they’re at home, playing at night, and have the bad taste of all the recent losses to Louisville in their mouths. Louisville lost three starters in the secondary during the offseason, so there will be a lot of inexperience in the defensive backfield against a team currently averaging nearly 250 ypg through the air. This could very well be a five hour game with 80 or more points between the two of them, but in the end, the Big Blue Nation will be happy.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

Middle Tennessee State (0-2) @ (#2, #2)LSU (2-0, 1-0)
7:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: LSU -40

No team in the country has been even half as impressive as LSU has through 2 games. After predictably bombing Mississippi State in the opener, they hosted Virginia Tech last weekend in what was supposed to be a tight, low scoring game. Both defenses were great in Week 1 and both offenses struggled. Needless to say, LSU not only won, but embarrassed VTU on both sides of the ball, racking up 598 yards of offense and holding VTU to 149 yards, 11 first downs, and 7 points.

MTSU is coming off a game in which they gave Louisville all they could handle before falling 58-42. While their offense is explosive, they are defensively challenged, which spells disaster in Baton Rogue Saturday night.

Just like South Carolina (their next week’s opponent), LSU faces a trap this weekend. While MTSU is clearly better than South Carolina State, there’s no way LSU slips up Saturday, particularly with another late night kickoff. It’s hard to imagine that LSU’s focus will be entirely on this game though, or at least enough to cover this ridiculously large spread.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Middle Tennessee State

Week 2 Recap

Another solid week for the Dead Guy, picking 9/9 straight up winners and 7/9 winners against the spread. South Carolina and South Florida both pulled the upsets to make me look particularly smart.

Week 2 Official Scorecard

For those of you playing along at home...

Week 1 Official Scorecard

For those of you playing along at home...