Random Thoughts About Week 7 Games

No one outside of the Tide Nation (except maybe Mississippi State fans) can watch the end of the Ole Miss/Alabama game and not think something fishy just went down. The on-field crew actually got the call right, but they were also the ones who had to relay Replay Official Doyle Jackson’s questionable ruling to the fans and players and coaches. You can debate all day whether OM WR Hodge was forced out of bounds or not and whether he or Bama DB Mitchell was the first to touch the ball. But to say that there’s conclusive evidence from that replay to overturn the on-field call is a joke. This won’t be the last we hear about this. I expect the SEC will issue Ole Miss an apology and reprimand Jackson, much like the crew that worked the Oregon/Oklahoma game last season.

Alabama HC Nick Saban crossed the line of good taste when he called the Rebel fans classless. Just three weeks ago, Tide fans pelted UGA WR Mikey Henderson with cups, bottles, etc. for merely catching a game winning TD pass. These same fans made threatening phone calls to assistant coaches after that same UGA loss.While there’s no excuse for littering the field at any point, the Rebel fans were protesting the decision made by the officiating crew, not making Alabama players their targets. Saban is no stranger to targeting students with attacks though, having only recently questioned the University of South Florida's academic standards. I also wonder how classy Dolphin fans think Saban is…

Lost in all the controversy is the play of OM DE Greg Hardy. He’s 6th in the conference in tackles from his DL spot, and leads the conference in Tackles for Loss (16), Sacks (8), and Forced Fumbles (3). He’s also broken up 3 passes and recorded 3 QB Hurries. He’s also caught 2 TD passes this year. Glenn Dorsey gets all the attention – and rightfully so – but it’s hard to ignore the numbers Hardy is amassing this season.

Tennessee continued its solid play, picking up a conference road win against Mississippi State. They gouged a usually stout MSU defense for 470 yds, and set up their annual 3rd Saturday in October showdown with Alabama in style. JR WR Lucas Taylor had a breakout game, catching 11 passes for 186 yds and a TD. Hard to believe, but after their disastrous start – particularly defensively – the Vols actually control their own destiny in the East.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs dropped a tough one at home, despite one of their better QB outings of the year. FR QB Carroll was solid all game, throwing for 200 yds and 2 TDs and not turning the ball over at all. All that after being diagnosed with a concussion at halftime. RB Dixon continues to impress. He had another 100+ yd day and a TD, and currently ranks 5th in conference in rushing ypg (99.1) and is tied for 3rd in total scoring this season with 60 points. He actually leads the conference in TDs scored with 10. MSU will need more solid play from the QB position if they want to pull an upset in either of their next 2 games - @WVU, @UK.

I think most knew it could happen, but hoped LSU had enough talent to overcome the coaching of Les Miles. Unfortunately for Tiger fans, their luck ran out in OT against Kentucky. Despite gashing the Wildcat D all game long, RB Charles Scott vanished in crunch time in favor of the plodding Jacob Hester. He reappeared on 4th and 2 in the 3rd OT, and was promptly stopped a yard short of the first down. A week after being lauded for his playcalling against Florida, Les Miles will be criticized with the same vigor for this game. Tiger fans will be shaking their heads about this one for a while.

Not to take anything away from the ‘Cats though. QB Woodson carried the Big Blue in the absence of star RB Rafael Little, lighting up the Tiger D for 250 yds and 3 TDs, doubling the number of passing TDs they’ve allowed this year. As the only team in conference with no remaining non-conference games, Kentucky has no margin for error if they want to win their first ever SEC East crown. Maybe now the Big Blue Nation can look back at the Bluegrass Miracle and appreciate it for what an amazing, improbable finish it actually was.

South Carolina HC Spurrier will take the win, but no way he’s happy with the team’s effort in the 2nd half. After moving the ball at will in the 1st half, the Gamecocks punted 5 times, threw an interception and missed a FG in the 2nd half. The nation’s stingiest passing D also gave up a season worst 285 yds, nearly 60 more than it surrendered to UK’s Woodson last week. Their run D was stout though, allowing only 113 yds to UNC and a 3.1 ypc average.

A year after losing to Vanderbilt on a last second FG, Georgia returned the favor Saturday in Nashville. For Dawg fans though, this couldn’t be the game they wanted to see. QB Stafford was shaky for a 2nd consecutive week, barely completing 50% of his passes. Thankfully FR RB Knowshon Moreno had another huge game in RB Brown’s absence. Kudos to HC Richt for quickly breaking up his players who were dancing on the logo at midfield after the game. They do know it was Vandy right? A game they’re supposed win every year…

As for Vanderbilt, if you want to go to a bowl, you’ve got to protect your home field. And to do that, you have to have a home field. While I’m sure the TV shots skewed it somewhat, the UGA red seemed to have an unusually large presence. WR Earl Bennett did move up to 2nd all time in receptions in SEC history, but you can just see him laboring to get open. With no other offensive threat, defenses can key on him, daring a Vandy QB or RB to beat them. In 3 SEC games against teams not named Ole Miss, Bennett has just 11 catches for 113 yds. While he’s just a JR, and could put the career receptions record out of reach for years next season, it’s hard to see him wanting to come back for another year of this.

Quick, name the SEC team with the longest winning streak right now. It’s Auburn. With perhaps the defensive effort of the year in college football – holding Arkansas RBs McFadden and Jones to a combined 85 yds. This was the Tiger’s 15th straight road win, made more impressive by the fact they won it despite not scoring a single TD. They dominated the Time of Possession (35:53 – 24:07), rushed for 189 yards, and held the Hogs to a 2.7 ypc average. QB Cox engineered another big win for the Tigers, completing 57% of his passes and taking care of the football. After 6 INTs in his first 3 games, he’s thrown just 1 in his last 4.

While Hog fans have to be somewhat encouraged by the defensive effort, this game seemed to all but clinch HC Nutt’s fate. It’s the worst kept secret in the country that a loud portion of Razorback Nation would like to see a HC change sooner rather than later. This loss – particularly with the stagnant offensive showing – will do nothing but fuel those already towering flames. I just wonder if he’ll survive the week…

Week 5 Predictions

After high drama in 4 inter-division games last week, this weekend seems to be a little slower pace. There are 3 more inter-division games – Ole Miss @ Georgia, Mississippi State @ South Carolina, and Auburn @ Florida – but none seem to offer the appeal that last week's slate had. Alabama ventures out of conference to tangle with Free Shoes University Florida State University while the rest of the league dines on cupcakes.

Here's how the weekend will shake out...

Saturday
(#2, #2)LSU (4-0, 2-0) @ Tulane (1-2)
11:00 CDT, ESPN2
Wednesday's Line: LSU -40

LSU travels 80 miles down I-10 to New Orleans to take on Tulane in the Superdome. LSU has won 15 straight in this series (avg score 34-16), including 49-7 last year.

Tulane RB Matt Forte had 303 yds rushing and 4 TDs last week against SE Louisiana, but my Spidey-sense tells me he won’t approach that number Saturday against the Tigers. Fresh off a victory over South Carolina, the Tigers basically have an off weekend to rest players like QB Matt Flynn, who is still nursing an ankle injury.

Not to write this game off as a gimme for LSU, but… LSU beat Mississippi State 45-0 in Starkville. Mississippi State beat Tulane 38-21 in New Orleans. LSU can name their score in this one. HC Les Miles will probably feel like rubbing it in, as the national media (like ESPN) is still having fun with his preseason postulating that USC has an easier road to the BCS Title Game. And they’ll be rubbing it in these new unis, now with pelican goodness!

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Mississippi St (3-1, 1-1) @ (#16, #21)S. Carolina (3-1, 1-1)
11:30 CDT, LFS
Wednesday's Line: USC -13.5

Mississippi State takes their 3-1 record north to South Carolina this weekend for a conference showdown featuring two of the stingiest defenses in the league. The Gamecocks have won 4 in a row in this series was one of three SEC teams (LSU and Auburn were the others) that shut Mississippi State out last year. MSU was shutout again by LSU this year, but rebounded to beat Auburn. MSU has won 3 in a row for the first time since 2000.

This will be Gamecock FR QB Chris Smelley’s first career SEC start, replacing the surprisingly inefficient Blake Mitchell. Smelley has thrown for 2 TDs and 2 INTs this season, so it will be interesting to see how – if at all – Spurrier’s game plan for the Bulldogs changes. The Gamecocks will also be without LB Jasper Brinkley for the rest of the season, which is a big blow to the defense, which already lost starting DE Nathan Pepper for the season. The Bulldogs will also be without their starting QB Michael Henig, and backups Caroll and Ridell should both see PT.

This will be a low scoring game featuring two strong defenses and two lackluster offenses. After giving 45 points to LSU in the opener, MSU has only allowed 46 in its last 3 games. USC currently ranks 2nd in the league allowing only 14.2 ppg, though their rush defense has struggled, allowing more than 200 ypg. Spurrier will have his team ready to go Saturday. The Bulldog’s defense will keep them in the game for a while, but an inefficient offense will be their ultimate undoing. No way Spurrier drops two in a row.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Florida Atlantic (3-1) @ (#14, #15)Kentucky (4-0, 1-0)
12:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: UK -22

This will be the first time these two programs have met asFAU has only been playing football since 2001. Kentucky is 6-1 all time against teams currently in the Sun Belt, but only beat Louisiana Monroe by 2 points last year at home. FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger was an All America performer for UK in the mid 50s under HC Bear Bryant.

Kentucky needs a break from the rigors of the SEC after back to back emotional wins over Louisville and Arkansas. Next weekend, they start a 3-game stretch playing the 3 best teams in conference - @USC, vs LSU, vs UF – so this is a good chance to fine-tune anything that needs to be worked on, as well as rest some starters. UK’s secondary will be tested as FAU QB Rusty Smith has thrown for 1100+ yds and 8 TDs in 4 games. FAU has beaten Minnesota this season, but fell to OkSt 42-6 on the road.

With the emotional 2 weeks Kentucky has had and the impending schedule of doom, UK’s focus won’t be entirely on this game. They’ll win, but won’t cover the 22 points.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Florida Atlantic

(#22, #24)Alabama (3-1, 1-1) @ Florida State (2-1)
4:00 CDT, CBS
Wednesday's Line: FSU -2.5

Alabama HC Nick Saban squares off against his former OC Jimbo Fisher in the SEC’s marquee non-conference matchup in Jacksonville this weekend. The Tide have never lost to FSU (2-0-1), but there’s no recent history, as the teams last met in 1974. The Seminoles are coming off a bye week, but have won 2 in a row, including 10-point wins at home over UAB and on the road at an upstart Colorado team. FSU HC Bobby Bowden actually played QB for the Tide as a freshman before transferring.

Tide freshman RB Terry Grant has been spectacular this year, averaging 120 ypg and scoring 5 TDs. He’ll be tested this weekend against a stout FSU defense allowing less than 75 ypg on the ground. Tide QB John Parker Wilson will have to make plays downfield to open things up for Grant and the other Tide backs.

Meanwhile, FSU averages 132 ypg on the ground and 200 ypg through the air. Junior QB Drew Weatherford has been average adapting to Fisher’s system, completing 54% of his passes for 4 TDs and just 1 INT. He’ll face a decent Tide pass defense allowing 180 ypg and has picked off 4 passes.

This Alabama team is battle tested. They’ve beaten Arkansas and battled UGA down to the final seconds before losing last week in OT. FSU has underachieved for a few years now, having not won 10 games in a season since 2003. The Tide will be playing for SEC pride, while the ACC gave up any hope for pride a long time ago. The Crimson Tide will pull the mild upset.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Ole Miss (1-3, 0-2) @ (#15, #16)Georgia (3-1, 1-1)
12:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: UGA -15

The Rebels head to Athens Saturday looking to avenge a 14-9 loss to Georgia last season. The Bulldogs have won 7 straight in the series and own the all-time series 29-12-1. Four of those 7 games have been decided by 7 points or less. UGA has won 14 of the last 16 against Ole Miss in Athens as well as their last 13 in weeks before they play Tennessee.

If moral victories counted, Ole Miss HC Orgeron’s career record would be much better. The Rebels nearly upended Florida last week in Oxford, but now have to avoid a letdown this weekend. QB Seth Adams continues to be the foundation of the offense as he ranks 5th in the conference in pass efficiency and has throw 7 TDs, just 2 fewer than the Rebels threw for last season.

Georgia avoided what would have been a disastrous loss last week, nipping Alabama in OT with just one offensive play. An 0-2 start would have all but eliminated them from the tough SEC East race. SO QB Matthew Stafford is licking his lips looking at an OM secondary allowing a 67% completion rate and 284 ypg and 8 TDs. Freshman RB Knowshon Moreno leads UGA with 86 ypg and 2 TDs.

Both teams need this game, though for different reasons. For OM, it would prove that last week’s valiant effort the Gators wasn’t an aberration. For UGA, it would put them at 2-1 in conference and keep them tied with the Gamecocks and just one game behind UF. In the end, Georgia will pull out close game. The Rebels play well, but drop another close game to the more-talented Dawgs.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

North Texas (0-3) @ Arkansas (1-2)
6:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -36

This will be the 9th time that these two programs will square off, with Arkansas holding an 8-0 record. The Razorbacks are 21-0 against teams currently in the Sun Belt Conference and have outscored the Mean Green 300-104 in their previous 8 games. NTU hasn’t beaten an SEC team since 1977.

This is just what the doctor ordered for Arkansas. After back to back crushing losses to Alabama and Kentucky, the Razorbacks can use this game to right the ship a bit. NTU ranks last in the country in scoring defense (51.3 ppg) and is ranked 9th in ESPN’s Bottom 10.

Arkansas can expect the Mean Green to throw the ball a whole lot. NTU QB Casey Meager hit 46/64 passes a couple of weeks ago for 601 yds against SMU, and has completed 99/154 passes on the season… in just 3 games.

By the time this one’s over though, the Mean Green will do little more than serve as punching bags for a frustrated Hogs team. DMac and Felix Jones will run wild in this game, and QB Casey Dick will be able to build his confidence against a horrendous defense. I really hate the line being so large, but Arkansas has some face to save, so they’ll run up the score.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Eastern Michigan (2-2) @ Vanderbilt (2-1, 1-1)
6:00 CDT, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Vanderbilt -20

This will be the first ever meeting between the Commodores and the Eagles. Vanderbilt sits at 2-1 and should be fully rested after their bye week. They’ll look to get their first win under HC Bobby Johnson after a bye week (0-4). EMU is riding a 2-game win streak after opening the season 0-2. Their 2 wins this season double their total from all of last season.

Vanderbilt has 3 straight SEC games after this one, so it’s imperative to win and to play well to build some momentum. EMU’s offense is mediocre at best, averaging less than 280 ypg and 19.5 ppg. Last week’s 38 point outburst against 1AA Howard skews those numbers a bit. Vandy has a solid defense (top 5 in both passing and rushing ypg in conference) that should have a fairly easy time with the Eagles.

When Vandy gets the ball, the Eagles will be very quickly introduced to VU WR Earl Bennett, who will promptly reintroduce himself to the end zones on Dudley Field. Bennett hasn’t scored a TD since week 1, so he’s chomping at the bit. The off week last week gave QB Chris Nickson time to heal as well, so he should have a solid game as well.

When it’s all said and done, the ‘Dores will win consecutive games for only the 5th time in the last 8 years and be half way to bowl eligibility. I think the spread may be a bit much for them to cover though.

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: Eastern Michigan

Auburn (2-2) @ (#4, #3) Florida (4-0, 2-0)
7:00 CDT, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Florida -18

Florida will host the Auburn Tigers this weekend, looking to avenge their only loss last year, a 27-17 defeat on the Plains. Only Arkansas scored more points against the Gator D last year (28 in the SECCG) despite Auburn scoring 0 offensive TDs. Auburn has won 2 of the last 3 in this matchup, but Florida has won 8 of the last 10.

Auburn’s offense finally woke up last week, pouring in 55 points against Hal Mumme’s NMSU. The defense stepped us as well, holding the Aggies scoreless in the second half. RBs Ben Tate and Mario Fannin both eclipsed the 100 yd mark, and QB Brandon Cox was steady, completing a high percentage of passes and managing the game well. This weekend will be a different story though, as the Gator defense is getting more and more experience with each passing game.

The Gators’ll take the 6 point win in Oxford last week, but I’m sure most thought it would be a little easier than that. Penalties have to be a major concern to HC Urban Meyer and staff, as UF is far and away the most penalized team in the league. QB Tim Tebow turned in another unbelievable performance, with 166 yds rushing and 250+ yds passing. They’ll need to avoid a trap game here, before embarking on a season-defining stretch against LSU, UK, and UGA.

This game may looked a lot better on paper before the season started. Auburn has won 4 of the last 5 games when Florida is ranked in the top 4 of the AP poll, but they just don’t have the horses on offense to run with the Gators. UF survived a scare last week in Tebow’s first road start, but back home, at the friendly confines of The Swamp, the Tigers will just be plain ol’ out manned. They probably won’t reach their scoring average (49.3), but Auburn won’t reach 20. The bigger drama in this game may be waiting to see if Mike Patrick inexplicably references Britney Spears again...

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Random Thoughts about Week 4 Games

Florida QB Tim Tebow turned in his best performance of the season Saturday against Ole Miss, accounting for 427 yards of total offense and all 4 Gator TDs. You have to wonder how much punishment his body can take handling hte ball as often as he does... The Gators' youth showed with 14 penalties for 127 yards. Florida is far and away the most penalized team in conference, averaging 87 ypg. They can get away with that on the road against a team like Ole Miss, but what about in Columbia or Lexington or Baton Rogue?

The Rebels had one of their best performances in 2+ seasons under HC Orgeron, but just couldn’t keep up with Tebow and Co. QB Seth Adams continues to exceed expectations, while preseason All-SEC RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis continues to struggle.

LSU HC Les Miles took a page from Steve Spurrier’s book Saturday, scoring a TD on a nifty fake FG. Even Spurrier had to grin after the play. LSU’s offense struggled a bit against a solid South Carolina defense, but in the end, there was just too much Glenn Dorsey and the rest of the LSU defense for the Gamecocks to handle. This was the 3rd game in a ridiculous 5-game homestand for the Tigers.

Gamecock back-up QB Chris Smelley got significant playing time in place of Blake Mitchell after Mitchell was ineffective. Smelley has been named the starter for this weekend's game against Mississippi State. Their defense did play well, holding LSU to a season low in points, but an inefficient offense and 3 turnovers doomed the Gamecocks in the end. As an aside, I know Spurrier is 1000x smarter than you or me when it comes to football, but there were a couple of calls I really questioned. Going for it on 4th & 1 inside your own 30 in the 3rd quarter is one thing, but handing the ball off 4 yards deep in the backfield, so your back needs 5 yards to pick up 1? And why kick that FG late in the 4th? USC still needed 3 scores after that, which is the same number they needed before they kicked it…

Even watching the Kentucky/Arkansas game on TV, you could just feel the air sucked out of the stadium late in the first half when Kentucky scored a TD on a fumble recovery. Arkansas had been in control of the game the majority of the first half until Trevard Lindley rumbled 66 yds for a TD to cut the Razorback lead to 20-14. Arkansas will be favored in their next 5 games, but until they shore up their passing defense (11/12 in conference) and generate a more consistent passing game (11/12) of their own, they’ll continue to struggle against legitimate opponents. They’ll be playing for a while with out third string RB Michael Smith, who was suspended indefinitely after running up ~$100 in charges on a stolen credit card.

I thought Kentucky was a basketball school… The Cats have jumped up to #14 in the new AP poll and QB Andre Woodson is a legitimate Heisman candidate, as long as the Cats continue to win. While UK’s defense hasn’t been spectacular – 9/12 ppg, 9/12 ypg – they have been opportunistic, forcing 11 turnovers through 4 games, which is 2nd in the conference behind LSU.

The Nicktatorship hit its first speedbump Saturday as Alabama dropped its first game of the season to Georgia. It looked the Tide would score a second straight come from behind win, but the Dawgs scored a TD on their first play of OT to win by 3. Spurrier may have gotten the Dawgs fired up by talking about them after South Carolina beat them 16-12 in Athens a couple of weeks ago. He said – among other things - “It wasn't like they were some big, powerful team”. The UGA D responded, holding Bama to 164 yds rushing and the offense generated 377 yds.

As for Bama, QB John Parker Wilson returned to earth after slicing up a porous Arkansas secondary for 327, completing less than 50% of his passes for 185 yds against UGA. This was the 3rd time in 4 games that Alabama has failed to complete a TD pass.

Tennessee QB Erik Ainge continued to dominate lesser opponents, throwing for 334 yds and 4 TDs against an overmatched Arkansas State team. UT has a off day this Saturday, before playing 4 straight conference games, including UGA, @Bama, and South Carolina. While the offense rolled up 523 yds against Arkansas State, the defense continued to struggle, giving up nearly 400 yards to the Indians. You have to wonder if their inconsistencies on both sides of the ball will be too much for them against conference foes.

Apparently, all Auburn needed to get rolling was a visit from NMSU. Auburn nearly doubled their season point total (55 Saturday, 68 first 3 games) against the Aggies, and the defense pitched a second half shut out. QB Brandon Cox played his best game of the season as well, completing 68% of his passes and no turnovers. The Tiger defense meanwhile forced 6 turnovers of their own. This week’s trip to Gainesville will shed a little more light as to where this team actually is.

Mississippi State matched their win total from each of the past 3 seasons with their 31-15 win over 1AA Gardner Webb. RB Anthony Dixon had another 86 yds rushing and 2 TDs. Backup QBs Josh Riddell and Wesley Carroll filled in admirably for starter Michael Henig, who miss the game with a broken hand. Mississippi State will be big underdogs in 4 of the next 5 games, so it will be interesting to see how this team continues to improve.

Week 4 Predictions

Saturday’s SEC docket includes just 7 games, the lowest total of the season so far. Of those games, 4 of them are conference games and all pit the Eastern division against the Western division. Some very intriguing conference games, as South Carolina travels to LSU, Georgia travels to Alabama, and Kentucky travels to Arkansas. Florida travels to Ole Miss in a not-so-intriguing game. Tennessee, Auburn, and Mississippi State all venture out of conference, while Vanderbilt has the weekend off.

Here’s how the weekend will shake out…

Saturday
(#3, #3)Florida (3-0, 1-0) @ Ole Miss (1-2, 0-1)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Florida -23

In September, under HC Orgeron, the Rebels are 3-0 against Memphis and 0-8 against everyone else, and are 2-14 against the spread in their last 16 September games. Ole Miss is 11-9-1 all-time against Florida, but these are certainly different times from even 2002-03, when the Rebels swept the Gators in Oxford and Gainesville. The Gators have lost their last 3 trips to the state of Mississippi.

This is the perfect SEC game for Tebow to make his first road start. So far this season, he’s been nothing short of spectacular, completing nearly 75% of his passes for 835 yards and has also rushed for close to 200 yards. The Gators’ defense stepped up last week and played its best game of the season forcing a high powered Tennessee offense into 3 turnovers and held them to just one offensive touchdown. On the negative side of things, they have been penalized 28 times in 3 games, which is far more than HC Meyer would like.

QB Brent Schaeffer will get his first start of the season for the Rebels Saturday, as Seth Adams is still out. If you don’t know the Schaeffer saga, Google it, not enough room on this page for it. Suffice it to say, he’s been a disappointment for the Rebels. After rushing for a career high 226 yds against Mizzou, BenJaurvus Green-Ellis came back to earth with a 21 carry/66 yard day against Vanderbilt, just one week after Bama sliced/diced Vandy for 221 yards. The Rebels face an inexperienced Florida defense this week, but unless the offensive line plays its best game of the season, the athletic Florida D will wreak havoc all game long.

This will be the 4th time in 4 games that the Rebels have faced a spread offense. While I would normally say that’s an advantage for them, they’ve been torched in those 3 games for an average of 401 ypg (110 rushing/291 passing) and 30 ppg. The Gators are currently averaging 572 ypg (287 rushing/235 passing) and 56 ppg, so the math is not difficult. This one won’t be close.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

(#12, #14)S. Carolina (3-0, 1-0) @ (#2, #2)LSU (3-0, 1-0)
2:30 CST, CBS
Wednesday's Line: LSU -16.5

In a preview of the SEC Championship game, the Gamecocks venture down south to their personal house of horrors. South Carolina is just 2-14-1 against LSU all time, including a 1-9 record in Baton Rogue, their win coming 1994, 18-17.

The Gamecocks survived their first road test in Athens a couple of weeks ago and currently sit 1-0 in the SEC. QB Blake Mitchell’s 3/3 TD/INT ration isn’t near where HC Spurrier would like it to be, or where it needs to be for South Carolina to continue winning in the SEC. Unlike Spurrier’s teams of the past, it’s been the defense and special teams that have been the foundation for this team. The defense did take a blow this week as starting DL Nathan Pepper is out for the season with a knee injury. The offense has been steady, but not spectacular.

As for LSU, everything has been spectacular. 137-7 in 3 games. 3rd in the conference in scoring. 2nd in the nation in pass defense. +7 turnover margin. Best punting average in conference. The list goes on and on. HC Les Miles has the Tigers flying high. He even rested his starting QB Flynn last week and backup Perrilloux threw for ~300 yds and 3 TDs. Flynn will be back for the Gamecocks, though it’s a nice contingency plan to have Perrilloux as #2.

This will undoubtedly be LSU’s biggest test of the year so far. The Gamecocks’ D will be the stiffest Matt Flynn and company have faced this year, and there are few better big game coaches than Spurrier, who, by the way, is 11-1 against LSU (all at Florida). Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they just don’t have enough on offense to get through the immovable object that is the LSU defense. Mitchell will be under pressure all game, and his tendency to force throws plays right into the Tigers’ hands. This game will not be decided until the second half, but a late defensive TD will ice it for the Tigers.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

(#21, #23)Kentucky (3-0, 0-0) @ Arkansas (2-1, 0-1)
5:00 CST, ESPN2
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -6.5

The last time these two got together on the gridiron, the Hogs won 71-63... in 7 OTs. UK beat Ole Miss to start 1-0 in the SEC for the first time since 1987 last year, and would love to make it 2 seasons in a row. This is the first road game of the season for UK.

Kentucky is coming off its biggest victory in years (arch-rival, first top 10 win since 1977, ranked for the first time since 1984), and this would seem an obvious time for a letdown game. But this Wildcats team has been through the ropes of an SEC season before and is full of veterans. QB Woodson established himself as a legitimate Hesiman candidate with his performance last week, but the Wildcats will need to keep on winning.

Arkansas is left to wonder what could’ve been after last week’s heartbreaker in Tuscaloosa. The Hogs lost by only 3, despite digging themselves a 21-0 hole after just 1 quarter. They actually had the lead for about 8 minutes in the 4th before another passing TD doomed them.

The Hogs rank 11/12 in conference in passing D, while the Wildcats come in at 10/12 in rushing D. Neither team will be able to stop the other team’s strength. Arkansas will be able to control the clock with their power running game, and DMac and company will be looking to atone from their loss last week. Andre Woodson’s conference record of consecutive passes with no interceptions will come to an end, and the Razorbacks grind out an exciting, high scoring win.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Arkansas State (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-2, 0-1)
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -19

This is the first meeting between these two programs, but Arkansas State is 1-44-3 versus current SEC teams. Tennessee needs a game like this after the shellacking they took on national television last week at the hands of the Gators. Arkansas State had a controversial 8-point loss to Texas in Week 1, so the Vols better not take them too lightly.

Last week appeared to be the first time QB Ainge was affected by the broken pinky on his throwing hand. He did complete 63% of his passes for ~250 yds, but he only threw for 1 TD against a Florida D that had allowed ~280 yds passing and 2 TDs to Troy the week before. Granted, Troy looked like world beaters last Friday against OKSt, but Vols fans would like to think they’ve got better talent than Troy.

For Fulmer’s sake, Tennessee needs a solid effort in all aspects of the game this weekend. The rumblings in Knoxville are getting louder with each passing week. Both Tennessee’s losses – Cal & UF – have come to teams that outclassed them in speed. UT’s defenders have looked flatfooted trying to run down the speedy skill-position guys. While Arkansas State seems to be improved this year, there’s no reason they should hang with Tennessee this weekend.The Vols nearly hung 40 on Southern Miss, they'll eclipse that this weekend.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

New Mexico St. (2-1) @ Auburn (1-2, 0-1)
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Auburn -17
Offensive guru, cheater, and former UK head coach Hal Mumme returns to the SEC this weekend with his NMSU Aggies. NMSU is 0-13 against current SEC teams, and has lost 15 straight non-conference road teams. This will only be the second time these programs have ever played with Auburn winning 55-14 in 1993. They would have to play this game 3 times for Auburn to score 55 points.

Auburn’s offensive woes have been well documented. The offensive line has been horrid and QB Brandon Cox has struggled, throwing 7 INTs to just 2 TDs. The defense will be tested this week, as – like all Mumme teams – NMSU likes to chuck it all over the field, and currently averages ~400 yds passing. The Aggie D surrenders 370 ypg and 27 ppg, so the opportunity to score is there. QB Kodi Burns may see more PT this weekend, after providing some spark for the Tigers last weekend.

HC Tuberville has made sure his Tigers realize the importance of this game. They need this to get to .500 and preserve any hope of a respectable season. NMSU can’t match the athletes that the Tigers have, but you have to wonder why Vegas thinks this Auburn team could outscore anyone by 17 points. Auburns wins, but not by much.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: NMSU

Gardner-Webb (1-1) @ Mississippi State (2-1, 1-1)
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

Mississippi State HC Croom looks to equal his win total from each of his first three seasons with a victory over 1AA Gardner-Webb this weekend. MSU did stumble against a 1AA opponent in 2004, losing 9-7 to Maine, but this is a fired up Bulldogs team now, with a very strong defense. They haven’t allowed a 2nd half point in either of the last two games, and probably won’t give up a single point all game Saturday.

MSU will be able to control the tempo of this game from the outset with RB Anthony Dixon. Reality will set back in with a trip to Columbia, SC next weekend, but the Bulldogs can enjoy being 3-1 for the first time in a long time.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: N/A

(#22, #21)UGA (2-1, 0-1) @ (#16, #20)Alabama (3-0, 2-0)
6:45 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -3.5

The Georgia Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Georgia has won 2 in a row in this series, though they're just 1-7 all-time in Tuscaloosa, with current HC Mark Richt winning 27-25 in 2002.

Georgia is trying to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, basically eliminating them from the SEC East race. They’ll try to build on their performance last week against Western Carolina. They’ve dominated their two non conference opponents, but failed to score a TD in their conference game against South Carolina. UGA will try to establish its running game early and let QB Stafford ease in to passing game. South Carolina was very effective taking away the deep ball, as Stafford averaged only ~5 yards per completion

Alabama HC Saban’s main jobs this week were to calm down the emotions after a shocking victory over Arkansas with :04 seconds left last week, and to get his defensive linemen rest. They were dragging at the end of that game after chasing down DMac, Felix Jones, and other Arkansas RBs. Saban inherited a veteran team, so the emotions should be in check this weekend. If Alabama wins this one, they’ll be 3-0 in conference before stepping out of conference the next 2 weekends. Freshman RB Terry Grant has been spectacular, ranking 2nd in conference behind DMac in rushing ypg. The Tide’ll have a similar game plan this week as they have all year – disciplined football, power running, efficient passing. QB Wilson gave Georgia something else to think about last week, throwing for 327 yds and 4 TDs.

Talent-wise, Georgia is the superior team in this game. They have big play capability on both sides of the ball. But, until they show consistency against a legitimate opponent, it’s hard to pick them to win in a hostile environment, especially against a veteran team and coach like Saban. Alabama will control the clock with Grant running the ball, and the D and QB Wilson will make just enough plays for the Tide to eke out a tough conference win.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Random Thoughts from Week 2 Games

Alabama redshirt freshman RB Terry Grant was impressive again against a porous Vandy D. Through 2 games, he's rushed for more than 300 yards and 5 TDs. He should easily win SEC Freshman of the Week for the second straight week.

Things didn't go quite the way Vanderbilt imagined. QB Nickson was banged up and WR Earl Bennett was held in check more than expected, mustering only 52 yards receiving. If Vandy doesn't cut back on the penalties, this season of high expectations may fall by the wayside.

Defense and special teams... not exactly how we're used to Steve Spurrier winning games, but as long as South Carolina's defense plays like they did yesterday, I think he'll take it. They kept Georgia out of the end zone for the first time in 6 seasons, when former Gamecock coach - and current babbling idiot - Lou Holtz did it. With a trip to Baton Rogue in 2 weeks, South Carolina had to have this one.

Speaking of Baton Rogue, what happened to the Hokies last night? LSU beat them like a rented mule. Can you imagine what was going through their fans' minds who made that trip? They play in a pseudo-football conference at best, and to be thrown in to Death Valley for an 8:22 PM kickoff, on national television, with Gameday in town... That's like taking a nun to strip club.

The Ole Miss Rebels put up their best offensive showing of the Ed Orgeron era last night against the terrible defense of Missouri. Unfortunately for them, their defense gave up 5 TDs in 16 minutes from the 2Q-3Q. The D buckled down after that, but it was far too little too late. The signs of life give some hope for the weekend showdown with Vandy, particularly if Nickson is still banged up. They'll need to play 4 full quarters to have a chance to win though...

Yes, Florida won, and scored 50+ points. They also surrendered 31 points and 330+ yards of offense. They did recover 2 fumbles, but still have 0 interceptions for the season. That young defense will be stretched when UT comes to town this weekend. The Tennessee Vols rebounded from their opening loss to Cal nicely, and Ainge continued to play well despite his broken pinky.

Kentucky fans will take the win I'm sure, but they gave up 450 yards of offense and had a -10:00 time of possession differential. The D did force 4 turnovers, but if they can't get the Kent State off the field, what happens when Louisville rolls into town this weekend?

Mississippi State is already off to a better start than last season, scoring their first points in the second game of the season, instead of the third like last year. They rolled up nearly 500 yards of offense, returned a pick for a TD, and QB Henig rebounded nicely, throwing and running for TDs and was only picked once. This game should give them confidence heading into the Auburn game.

Here's my impression of the Auburn/South Florida game:
Auburn - Here's a fumble, please win
USF - No thanks
Auburn - No seriously, here's another fumble, please win
USF - No thanks
Brandon Cox - Really and truly, I just threw it right to you, please, for the love of everything that is holy, please win this game
USF - (begrudgingly) Fine...

All kidding aside, Auburn is in trouble this season. They had 5 turnovers yesterday and didn't force any. If not for an apparently intoxicated USF kicker, Auburn never would have sniffed OT.

Random Thoughts from Week 1 Games

LSU: Dominant defense. Dorsey maybe the best player in the country. Offense sputtered at times, but overall efficient. Have to wonder if combination of Les Miles coaching and starting RB Hester will be enough for them to have the type of season they should with the other talent on that team, particularly defensive. Hester is a solid back, but he's doesn't give you the gamebreaking ability that so many other SEC backs do.

Mississippi State: Very good defense. They bottled up LSU for the entire first half, but were eventually done in by the offense's propensity for turnovers. LSU's 45 points is not an accurate reflection on MSU's defense. And speaking of their offense, is Henig really the best option for MSU? He consistently threw the ball into double and triple teams against LSU. Maybe Croom's West Coast offense is too complicated for him. MSU's defense is good enough to at least keep them in the majority of their games, but unless the offense dramatically improves, another 3 win season is in line.

Florida: Obviously passed their first test with flying colors. Tebow was outstanding throwing the ball, hitting 13/17 passes for 300 yds and 3 TDs. He ran one in for good measure. UF's biggest questions this year will have to be answered on the defensive side of the ball though. Against an overmatched WKU team, the Gators D was impressive, surrendering only a single FG. They didn't force any turnovers though. It will be interesting to see how that inexperienced defense progresses during the season.

Ole Miss: Two different Ole Miss teams showed up yesterday. A dominant defensive one in the first half and a not-so-good defensive one in the second half. The first half highlights included a blocked punt for a touchdown and a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Rebels scored the first 23 points of the game before hanging on for dear life as Memphis scored the last 21. Only a failed 2 point conversion with 31 seconds left prevented OT. Walk-on QB Seth Adams was steady in his debut, and RB Benjarvaus Green-Ellis picked up 83 yards as well. Will learn much more about them this week against Mizzou.

Kentucky: Explosive offense. It took the Wildcats all of one snap to get rolling this season, as QB Andre Woodson threw a 51-yard TD pass on UK's first play from scrimmage. UK rolled up 569 yards of offense in an almost perfectly balanced way - 289 passing, 280 rushing. Hard to tell a lot about a team when they play a 1AA opponent, unless you're Michigan...

Georgia: Georgia may have had the most impressive Week 1 of any team. Sure LSU's score is gaudier, but if you watched that game, you know they were a little sloppy. UGA came out and whipped a solid Cowboys team that averaged 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing per game last year. Early on, it looked like this would be a 45-42 game, as both teams were really locked in offensively. Once the UGA defense got going though, the obviously more talented Bulldogs ran away with it in the second half.

Arkansas: The Dynamic Duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones were too much for Troy. This game was close throughout the first half, but Arkansas was too strong on offense for Troy to hold on. Casey Dick was solid and didn't commit any turnovers, which is all they need from him. McFadden tossed a 42-yard TD pass and Jones ran a kickoff back 90 yards for a score as well.

Vanderbilt: The Chris Nickson/Earl Bennett connection was alive and well in Nashville last night, as the two hooked up 13 times for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. Vandy struggled early on with the spiders, but too much firepower down the stretch. The Commodores rolled up nearly 450 yds of offense, including Nickson's 281 yds passing.

South Carolina: RS Fr QB Chris Smelley got his first career start in the place of suspended Sr Blake Mitchell. Spurrier also played So QB Tommy Beecher. Each tossed a TD pass. Only a late 2Q TD gave the Gamecocks a halftime lead. Spurrier may have been playing coy with his offense with a huge divisional game @UGA this weekend, but he couldn't have been too pleased with this effort.

Alabama: The Nicktatorship is off to a running start in Tuscaloosa, as the Tide blitzed the 1AA Catamounts of Western Carolina 52-6. Bama rolled up 6 rushing TDs and veteran QB John Parker Wilson was steady, but didn't throw for a TD.

Auburn: Unless things get much better on the Plains, the Tigers may be in for a longer season than anticipated. The offensive line was manhandled last night by KSU's D, and QB Brandon Cox was a human pinball more times than he'd care to remember. The 10-point margin hardly represents the flow of this game, as the Tigers scored a defensive TD late in the 4th to ice the game. If they can't protect Cox better than they did last night, he'll be lucky to survive the season in one piece.

Tennessee: A year after the Vols thoroughly dominated Cal, the Bears returned the favor last night. UT's offense again looked impressive under David Cutcliffe in his 2nd stint back in Knoxville, but the D looked slow, especially in comparison to the skill guys Cal had. And did you see the step back move DeSean Jackson used on that punt return TD? That's just not fair.

Week 1 Predictions

Ahhh... opening week in the SEC. Where every teams' dreams of bowls and championships are still alive and everyone's undefeated. While a lot of SEC teams are opening at home against lesser opponents, a few are playing other BCS schools, and LSU and Mississippi State get a head start on their respective finishes in the SEC West tomorrow night.

Here's a look at this week's games:

(NOTE: As the season progresses, the previews will get better. There's only so much effort I can put into Western Kentucky @ Florida... :) )

THURSDAY NIGHT
LSU (#2AP, #2USA Today) @ Mississippi State
7:00 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: LSU -18.5

Every team has questions headed into the first week of the season. Will LSU QB Matt Flynn be a suitable replacement for #1 pick Jamarcus Russell? Can Les Miles shed the “winning with Saban’s players” image? Will Mississippi State’s offense continue to put up numbers like it did at the end of last year? Will fragile MSU QB Michael Henig be able to survive 4 quarters of LSU’s NFL-quality defense?

I'll be as nice as I can here. This series has not been close lately. LSU has won the last 7 in this series by an average score of 42-12. The last 3 games in Starkville have produced a 110-13 scoring differential (37-4) in favor of LSU. Mississippi State has beaten LSU just 3 times since 1984. Their talent is at its highest level since Croom took over, but so is LSU's. Even with this game being the opening game for both teams, I can't see LSU stumbling here or MSU keeping it close. MSU is 1-9 in the last 10 against LSU against the spread, and this is one of smallest lines in recent memory. Anything less than 3 TDs in this one is a bargain.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

SATURDAY
Western Kentucky @ Florida (#6, #3)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: No Line

The defending national champs will serve as Western Kentucky's initiation to DI football. After 11 consecutive winning seasons in 1AA, the Hilltoppers have joined the Sun Belt for the ‘07 season. This will be a good game for Florida to not only get the Tebow Show rolling, but also try to figure out who will replace the 9 defensive starters lost off their tenacious D from last year.

Straight Up Winner: UF
Against the Spread: --

Ole Miss @ Memphis
2:30 CST, CSS
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -2.5

Although the Rebels own this series all time, it has become too close for comfort in the minds of many Rebel faithful in recent years. HC Ed Orgeron is 2-0 against the Tigers, but they've won the two games by only 7 points - combined. The Rebels are a mere 2-4 against the spread the last 6 games against the Tigers. This game looks to be another tight one between the two.

Ole Miss - as usual - has major questions at QB. Former walk on Seth Adams has been named the starter for the Memphis game, but last year's savior to be Brent Schaeffer may see some PT if Adams struggles. Whoever the QB is, their main focus will be to not lose the game, as the Rebels will ride All-SEC RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis as far as he’ll take them. This will be a tough game against the retooled Tigers, who are looking to rebound from a dismal 2-10 season last year.

I think it will be a close game throughout, but with an established RB and a clear advantage in all aspects of special teams, I think the Rebels squeak it out in the end.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky
5 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

This one could get really ugly, really quickly. UK QB Andre Woodson heads one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Cats are looking to build on their first winning season since 2002 with the triplets - Woodson, RB Rafael Little, and WR Keenan Burton. Look for UK to strike early and often in this one.

Straight Up Winner: UK
Against the Spread: --

Oklahoma State @ Georgia (#13, #13)
5:45 CST, ESPN2
Wednesday's Line: UGA -6.5

Oklahoma State brings a talented, but inexperienced team to Athens to line up against the Dawgs. UGA returns only 11 starters, but brings back the major pieces of an offense that progressed under true freshman starting QB Matthew Stafford last season. A more experienced, confident Stafford looks ready to roll this season for UGA.

While OK St will most likely keep this one close early on, look for UGA to pull away late. OK St is loaded on offense, ranking as one of the highest scoring teams in the country last year, but their defense isn’t strong enough to hang with UGA’s offense for 60 minutes. UGA is 25-2 under HC Mark Richt against non-conference opponents, and has won 10 straight season openers. This year looks to be no different.

Straight Up Winner: UGA
Against the Spread: UGA

West Carolina @ Alabama
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: NL

New HC Nick Saban will be eased back into college football as the Tide host DIAA Western Carolina. These teams played in '04 and 'Bama squeaked out a 52-0 win. Look for more of the same this year, as the Tide Nation will be expecting the Saban-led Tide to make a statement early on.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: --

Troy @ Arkansas (#21, #20)
6:00 CST
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -24

No one in the country will be happier when the opening kickoff is booted that Arkansas HC Houston Nutt. He can finally put the offseason behind him and concentrate on football. Troy is coming off an 8-5 season that saw them trounce Rice in the NOLA Bowl, but they'll be outmatched here. Troy is 1-5 in their last 6 road openers, and that will drop to 1-6 after Saturday. Darren McFadden's Heisman campaign should get off to a running start, and the Hogs defense should contain Troy. The spread is bigger than I'd like, but I think the Hogs should barely cover.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Richmond @ Vanderbilt
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: NL

Hope springs eternal (or at least in 2007) in Nashville that Vandy could break through for their first bowl appearance since an 36-28 loss to Air Force in the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl. With 18 starters returning, Bobby Johnson has an experienced team that has been through the rigors of the SEC before. The question remains as to whether they can find ways to win the games they're supposed to win. This one shouldn't be a problem against the IAA Spiders.

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: --

Louisiana Lafayette @ South Carolina
7:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: USC -29.5

South Carolina has all the pieces in place to win their first SEC Eastern division title. With 17 starters returning - including 10 on defense - the Gamecocks will look to jump on the Ragin' Cajuns early in this one. RS Freshman Chris Smelley draws the start as senior QB Blake Mitchell is serving a 1-game suspension for skipping too many classes. It really shouldn’t matter though. ULaLa's record is 0-48 against current SEC teams and an avg loss of 5 TDs per game. No reason to think this one stays close.

With a back up QB playing and a huge divisional showdown next week against UGA, I think Spurrier runs something of a vanilla offense here. Unless the Gamecock D steps up and scores a TD, I think the spread is too big for USC to cover.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: Louisiana Lafayette

Kansas State @ Auburn (#18, #14)
6:45 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Auburn -13.5

While Auburn has established itself as one of the most consistent programs in the country, opening games have not been their friends recently, as evidenced by a 2-3 record in their last 5. Granted 2 of those losses were against Southern Cal, so it's not like they lost to middle of the road Big 12 teams at home.

KSU brings back 15 starters from a team that won 7 games last year, so they'll have confidence in this game. Auburn only returns 5 starters on offense, but one of those is the steady - if not spectacular - QB Brandon Cox. Unfortunately though, they return only one starter from an average offensive line, so Cox may have to rush some throws. The Tigers will have to replace Kenny Irons and his 900 yards rushing. And while the game may be closer than the Tiger fans want, the home field advantage should be just enough for Auburn to open the season 1-0.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Kansas State

Tennessee (#15, #15) @ California (#12, #12)
7:00 CST, ABC
Wednesday's Line: California -6

In one of the biggest non-conference tilts of the season, the Vols trek 2500 miles west to Berkeley, CA, where an angry team of Bears awaits their arrival. Tennessee throttled Cal last year in the season opener 35-18, and has won 12 straight season openers.

This year could very well see the end of that streak though. Tennessee will be without their leading rusher from last year, the oft-troubled LaMarcus Coker, who despite being finished with his recent "indefinite" suspension, is not making the trip to Cal. The Golden Bears will be chomping at the bit to prove that last year's debacle in Knoxville was an aberration. Vols’ QB Erik Ainge will struggle through the air, trying to find targets to replace his top 3 targets from last year, even against a rebuilding Cal defense.

The Vols could also be one of the first teams to be really affected by the new kickoff procedures, as All-Pac-10, All-America, All-Everything wide receiver/kick returner DeSean Jackson will probably be returning kickoffs this year too. The Vols special teams will have to be extra sharp to prevent short field for Cal all day long.

While this game won't be as lopsided as last year's Vols' win, Cal will prevail by a touchdown or more.

Straight Up Winner: California
Against the Spread: California

Controversial Pick

Not surprisingly, I've gotten several emails from Vol and Gator fans questioning my competence having selected HC Steve Spurrier and USC to win the East. Particularly in light of their recent disciplinary issues that I call UT out for.

There's little doubt in my mind that top to bottom, UF has more talent than USC. My concern with picking them was having to replace 9 starters on a defense that won them a NC last year. Tebow has looked great in his limited PT so far spelling Chris Leak, but how will he handle taking all the snaps this year? The fadeaway jump pass to the back of the end zone only works so many times. Seems like Gator fans would appreciate Spurrier's ability to get the most out of a team.

As for the Vols, I have them lower than probably anyone else does, but that's fine. I'll freely admit if I'm wrong, but I doubt the Orange Nation sends me emails doing the same if UT does sink to 5th. First things first... Who is Ainge going to be throwing to? His top 3 targets from his breakthrough '06 season are gone. So is the majority of the defensive line that wreaked havoc last year. RB LaMarcus Coker could prove to be a constant thorn in Fulmer's side. He's the most gifted back on the squad, but his constant suspensions, run-ins with the law, etc. will prove to be a distraction down the road. Fulmer mishandled his team in 2005 back when a lack of discipline ran wild through the team. UT suffered their first losing season since 1988 that season. While there's no way that happens this year, to think that it won't have an effect is ignoring the obvious.

Anyway, I'll be posting my picks all season long. Anyone else who wants to do the same is more than welcome to. If you think I'm wrong, email me (thedeadguysec@gmail.com). I'm happy to read it.

SEC Standings Predictions - SEC EAST

Undoubtedly one of - if not - the strongest divisions in all of college football. The defending national champions reside here, as well as other traditional powers UT and UGA. And the ol' ball coach Steve Spurrier. And Vandy and UK are both sporting improved squads. With brutal schedules all around, no team will survive undefeated and the division winner may even have two. So how will it play out?

1) South Carolina
Yup, the old ball coach works his magic and the Gamecocks win their first ever division title. Returning 17 starters, including a senior QB in Blake Mitchell, South Carolina has the pieces in place to survive the brutal SEC East schedule and make it to Atlanta in December.
2) Florida
Few teams are having to replace as much as UF - only 2 starters back on a ferocious D that was the key element of their title run last year - but with a favorable SEC East home schedule, the defending national champs should manage to finish second in the East.
3) Georgia
Talent-wise, UGA should finish ahead of UF. They've got 7 starters back on an offense that improved throughout the season and Stafford seems ready to take it to the next level. Unfortunately for them, Florida is still on the schedule, and a 2-15 record the last 17 years says that's bad for UGA.
4) Kentucky
Oh how the times have changed. While the fan base is still rabidly devoted to the hoops program, Rich Brooks has quietly built an exciting team. With 15 starters back from a team that won 8 games - including a bowl - last year, the triplets - QB Woodson, RB Little, and WR Burton - are poised to make some noise in the SEC.
5) Tennessee
Academic problems. Legal issues. Substance abuse. Not the things you want to surround your program with during the summer, but that's where HC Phil Fulmer finds himself. Sure the talent is there to win the SEC, but what about the discipline? With a brutal schedule including road games to UF, UK, and Bama, offseason distractions may cost them a few places in the standings.
6) Vanderbilt
A long time doormat of the SEC, Vandy has assembled a good team - one of the best in school history - and appears in the eyes of many prognosticators to be bowl-bound for the first time in 25 years. I'll have to see it before I believe it. They do return 10 starters on offense, but teams like Vandy find ways to lose games they should win, like Ole Miss last year. They also closed with 3 straight losses and lost 4 of their last 5. Unless their kicking game dramatically improves from last year, they'll be looking at another season in the cellar of the SEC East.