It’s Hard Out There for a Blimp

If you think the heavyweight division of boxing is struggling to find an identity and maintain relevance in the world of sports, stop and consider the plight of the heavyweight college football coach. Over the past couple of seasons, these jolly old souls endeared themselves to us with their facial contortions and jiggly belly gyrations. But now, sadly, many of these portly gentlemen have fallen on hard times.

2006 and 2007 will long be viewed as the pinnacle for the OBCs. No, not the Old Ball Coach Steve Spurrier, but a secret union of former Christmas Parade Santas known as the Overweight Ball Coaches. For two magical seasons, hypertension and blood sugar be damned, these hefty heroes captivated our minds the same way this morning’s Grand Slam Breakfast at Denny’s captivated theirs.

The collective accomplishments of the OBC over those two glorious seasons are impressive. In 2006, Ralph “The Fridge” Friedgen led the Maryland Terrapins to a 9-4 record and a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl. That same season, Charlie “Decided Schematic Advantage” Weis led Notre Dame to 10-3 record and a Sugar Bowl bid.

Then, last season, in the legendary basketball town of Lawrence, KS, Mark “Mega Man” Mangino led the long-irrelevant Jayhawks to national prominence and a victory in the Orange Bowl. And, in our own SEC, two OBC members enjoyed their own shining moments. Phil “The Great Punkin” Fulmer led Tennessee to a 10-4 record, an SEC East Championship, and a victory in the Outback Bowl. Meanwhile, in the SEC West, Sylvester “The Walrus” Croom guided Mississippi State to an 8-5 record and a Liberty Bowl Victory. Goo goo g’joob indeed.

Unfortunately, in 2008, the OBC has fallen on its hardest times since the Twinkie shortage of 1985 (and I think we all remember how that turned out). Both Fulmer and Croom were unceremoniously shown the door after lackluster 2008 seasons. Kansas slipped back to mediocrity this year at 7-5. Maryland has yet to reach those heights again. And the struggles of poor, pitiful Charlie Weis have been well documented. Although it’s not his fault at all (Damn you Ty Willingham!), Weis was fortunate to maintain his job after consecutive mediocre seasons.

So please, this month, while you’re celebrating the religious holiday of your choice, pause for a minute to reflect on the ill fates of the fallen members of the OBC. Its members are people too, just bigger. And rounder. And they probably breathe through their mouth. But they are people and they need your thoughts and positive energy in these trying times.

Thoughts from an eventful weekend in the SEC

* First things first: Love him or hate him, it was the end of an era as the final seconds ticked off the clock in Neyland Stadium Saturday night. While Fulmer was certainly an easy target, his record - particularly early in his tenure - speaks for itself.

That said, I'm not sold that Lane Kiffin is the right fit yet at a BCS school. He's assembling an impressive staff, but the SEC East is hardly the ideal scenario to learn the ropes.

* Though his 5-year performance certainly merited it, I'm surprised Mississippi State pulled the plug on the Croominator. While his hiring was certainly an intriguing story for a week or two, it was hard not to tire of the media adoration even as his teams failed miserably on the field, mostly due to his poor recruiting and strategizing. In his 5 years in Starkville the Bulldogs never ranked in the top 100 in total offense.

In his swan song Saturday in Oxford, the Bulldogs had 14 drives: 12 punts and 2 interceptions. The never had a drive of more than 14 yds. I'm not sure who the Bulldogs are going to be able to afford, but aside from being probation-free, the program is in no better shape than when Croom was hired.

* The dominating performance Saturday capped a remarkable 4-game run to close the season for Ole Miss. They've given up just 20 points over the last 4 games and set a school record with 11 sacks Friday afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Capital One Bowl select the streaking Rebels over the porous Georgia Bulldogs.

* Speaking of UGA, that was just ugly yesterday. The Bulldog offense certainly got the preseason memo about the talent level of this team. It seems though it never reached the defensive coaches. The 2008 'Dawgs are more reminiscent of 2007's Florida team than either program would want to admit.

* Tommy Tuberville will be the first to admit that he's the primary reason for Auburn's disappointing 5-win season this year. While it's certainly not the season he or Auburn fans, I'm not sure it merits a pink slip. His recent track record is significantly better than Fulmer or Croom's is. But with the ridiculous pressure he's under - particularly with Saban's success at Alabama, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up somewhere next year. The Auburn fanbase isn't as fractured as Arkansas' was before Nutt left, but it's certainly within walking distance.

* I think LSU fans were a lot happier with "2-loss Les" than "5-Loss Les". It's ugly when you don't have a serviceable QB in this league.

* Spurrier can't be having any fun in Columbia. I gotta figure he's done after this season. The Gamecocks are 4 years into the Spurrier regime and there's been 4 5+ loss seasons. I can't imagine that's sitting well with the OBC's psyche.

* Going to be a helluvan SEC Championship Game Saturday afternoon. Mike Slive and his staff couldn't have asked for anything more.

Sylvester Croom's gmail account

Ever wondered what's in Sylvester Croom's gmail account? Take a look.

Click on picture for full size

See Bobby Petrino, Houston Nutt, Tommy Tuberville, and Phil Fulmer here.

Random Thoughts from the weekend…

Things were interesting for a while in the Superdome this weekend, and I'm not talking about the uniforms. Tulane actually led LSU 9-7 until a very late FG in the first half put the Tigers up for good. The defense was awesome - as usual - forcing 3 TOs and holding Tulane to 227 total yards. They'll face Florida this weekend as the #1 team in the country according to the new AP poll.

South Carolina righted themselves a bit with a solid win over Mississippi State Saturday morning. Freshman QB Blake Smelley was solid in his first SEC start, garnering SEC Freshman of the week honors, with 279 yds and 2 TDs. Most encouraging for Gamecock fans has to be the solid showing from the defense, playing its first game without All-America LB Jasper Brinkley. They seemed to struggle for an identity early on, but fed off the blocked punt in the 3rd quarter and dominated the last part of the game. They’ll need that same type of effort for 4 quarters Thursday night against Kentucky if they want to win that one.

As for the Bulldogs, they hung with a ranked team on the road for much of three quarters before falling to a more talented team. If they can get any kind of consistent QB play to go with their solid running game and defense, they could spell trouble for some remaining teams on their schedule. Until they do though, it’s hard to not see a 3-game losing streak coming starting next weekend against Tennessee.

5-0, #8 in the country, arguably the best QB in the country. Fairly common traits of a team from the SEC East, but not Kentucky. QB Woodson finally threw an INT - his first in 326 pass attempts, but the 5 TDs he threw made it okay. That's one less thing for him to have hanging over him heading into Thursday's game against South Carolina. His leadership will be mandatory as the Wildcats will underdogs in their next 3 games against USC, Florida, and LSU.

Okay, so the Nicktator can't walk on water like many Alabama fans would have you to believe. The sporadic Tide offense continued its up and down season, mustering only 89 rushing yds against Free Shoes U F$U Florida State. QB Wilson threw a TD pass for the second game this season, but barely completed 50% of his passes. Saban and staff have a get healthy game against Houston this weekend, before diving back into SEC play next week.

The score of the Ole Miss/Georgia game is very misleading. Georgia won, and is easily the more talented of the two teams, but the Rebels played well... for a while. Much like good teams find ways to win, bad ones find ways to lose. And you don't need to find a way to lose to UGA, particularly if you're Ole Miss. A fumbled snap on 1st and Goal at the 1, a pointless personal foul, an inability to stop 3rd and longs... the list of things goes on. Hats off to WR Mike Wallace though, who's emerged as one of the league's best this season. His 462 yds receiving ranks him second in conference behind only VU stud Earl Bennett's 466. Bennett has 37 receptions compared to Wallace's 19.

As for the 'Dawgs, if they run the ball like they did against the Rebels, they'll be very tough to beat. They had 328 yds rushing, including 180 by Thomas Brown to steamroll the Rebels. With the game tied 17-17 in the 3rd quarter, HC Mark Richt rode his stable of backs to 28 unanswered points. A victory over Tennessee this weekend would vault them right back into the SEC East race.

Arkansas took advantage of North's Texas' porous D, gouging them for 713 total yds, including 446 rushing. DMac had 138, and Felix Jones had 132.. on just 7 carries! The Mean Green suck. No other way to put it. The Hogs host more suckage this weekend as Chattanooga comes to town.

The aforementioned Earl Bennett caught 9 passes for 93 yards and TD last weekend for Vanderbilt and moved within 10 of the all-time SEC record for most receptions. While the defense played well - 173 total yards allowed, 6 TOs forced - it couldn't have made HC Bobby Johnson happy to see his QB Nickson throw for 4 picks of his own. Vandy's half way to bowl eligibility, but 3 straight conference games loom, starting this weekend on the plains.

Auburn was able to take what the Ole Miss coaching staff exploited against Florida, add their own touch to it, and parlay it into a stunning victory that let everyone know that they're not quite ready to phone it in this season. It will be interesting to see what the mood is in the state of Alabama this weekend, as after week 3 - Bama: 3-0, Auburn: 1-2 - many were convinced the balance of power had shifted to Tuscaloosa. Now, we're not so sure.

And what about the Gators? One week after struggling against Ole Miss, they get beat at home by Auburn, and now travel to Baton Rouge to take on the #1 team in the country. Didn't HC Urban Meyer express concern about QB Tebow carrying the ball so much against Ole Miss? One week after 27 carries against the Rebels, Timbow carried it 17 times against the Tigers. WR Percy Harvin had the second most carries with 4. If they can't find a 3rd consistent offensive weapon, they may find themselves involved in many tight games down the stretch.

Week 4 Predictions

Saturday’s SEC docket includes just 7 games, the lowest total of the season so far. Of those games, 4 of them are conference games and all pit the Eastern division against the Western division. Some very intriguing conference games, as South Carolina travels to LSU, Georgia travels to Alabama, and Kentucky travels to Arkansas. Florida travels to Ole Miss in a not-so-intriguing game. Tennessee, Auburn, and Mississippi State all venture out of conference, while Vanderbilt has the weekend off.

Here’s how the weekend will shake out…

Saturday
(#3, #3)Florida (3-0, 1-0) @ Ole Miss (1-2, 0-1)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Florida -23

In September, under HC Orgeron, the Rebels are 3-0 against Memphis and 0-8 against everyone else, and are 2-14 against the spread in their last 16 September games. Ole Miss is 11-9-1 all-time against Florida, but these are certainly different times from even 2002-03, when the Rebels swept the Gators in Oxford and Gainesville. The Gators have lost their last 3 trips to the state of Mississippi.

This is the perfect SEC game for Tebow to make his first road start. So far this season, he’s been nothing short of spectacular, completing nearly 75% of his passes for 835 yards and has also rushed for close to 200 yards. The Gators’ defense stepped up last week and played its best game of the season forcing a high powered Tennessee offense into 3 turnovers and held them to just one offensive touchdown. On the negative side of things, they have been penalized 28 times in 3 games, which is far more than HC Meyer would like.

QB Brent Schaeffer will get his first start of the season for the Rebels Saturday, as Seth Adams is still out. If you don’t know the Schaeffer saga, Google it, not enough room on this page for it. Suffice it to say, he’s been a disappointment for the Rebels. After rushing for a career high 226 yds against Mizzou, BenJaurvus Green-Ellis came back to earth with a 21 carry/66 yard day against Vanderbilt, just one week after Bama sliced/diced Vandy for 221 yards. The Rebels face an inexperienced Florida defense this week, but unless the offensive line plays its best game of the season, the athletic Florida D will wreak havoc all game long.

This will be the 4th time in 4 games that the Rebels have faced a spread offense. While I would normally say that’s an advantage for them, they’ve been torched in those 3 games for an average of 401 ypg (110 rushing/291 passing) and 30 ppg. The Gators are currently averaging 572 ypg (287 rushing/235 passing) and 56 ppg, so the math is not difficult. This one won’t be close.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

(#12, #14)S. Carolina (3-0, 1-0) @ (#2, #2)LSU (3-0, 1-0)
2:30 CST, CBS
Wednesday's Line: LSU -16.5

In a preview of the SEC Championship game, the Gamecocks venture down south to their personal house of horrors. South Carolina is just 2-14-1 against LSU all time, including a 1-9 record in Baton Rogue, their win coming 1994, 18-17.

The Gamecocks survived their first road test in Athens a couple of weeks ago and currently sit 1-0 in the SEC. QB Blake Mitchell’s 3/3 TD/INT ration isn’t near where HC Spurrier would like it to be, or where it needs to be for South Carolina to continue winning in the SEC. Unlike Spurrier’s teams of the past, it’s been the defense and special teams that have been the foundation for this team. The defense did take a blow this week as starting DL Nathan Pepper is out for the season with a knee injury. The offense has been steady, but not spectacular.

As for LSU, everything has been spectacular. 137-7 in 3 games. 3rd in the conference in scoring. 2nd in the nation in pass defense. +7 turnover margin. Best punting average in conference. The list goes on and on. HC Les Miles has the Tigers flying high. He even rested his starting QB Flynn last week and backup Perrilloux threw for ~300 yds and 3 TDs. Flynn will be back for the Gamecocks, though it’s a nice contingency plan to have Perrilloux as #2.

This will undoubtedly be LSU’s biggest test of the year so far. The Gamecocks’ D will be the stiffest Matt Flynn and company have faced this year, and there are few better big game coaches than Spurrier, who, by the way, is 11-1 against LSU (all at Florida). Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they just don’t have enough on offense to get through the immovable object that is the LSU defense. Mitchell will be under pressure all game, and his tendency to force throws plays right into the Tigers’ hands. This game will not be decided until the second half, but a late defensive TD will ice it for the Tigers.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

(#21, #23)Kentucky (3-0, 0-0) @ Arkansas (2-1, 0-1)
5:00 CST, ESPN2
Wednesday's Line: Arkansas -6.5

The last time these two got together on the gridiron, the Hogs won 71-63... in 7 OTs. UK beat Ole Miss to start 1-0 in the SEC for the first time since 1987 last year, and would love to make it 2 seasons in a row. This is the first road game of the season for UK.

Kentucky is coming off its biggest victory in years (arch-rival, first top 10 win since 1977, ranked for the first time since 1984), and this would seem an obvious time for a letdown game. But this Wildcats team has been through the ropes of an SEC season before and is full of veterans. QB Woodson established himself as a legitimate Hesiman candidate with his performance last week, but the Wildcats will need to keep on winning.

Arkansas is left to wonder what could’ve been after last week’s heartbreaker in Tuscaloosa. The Hogs lost by only 3, despite digging themselves a 21-0 hole after just 1 quarter. They actually had the lead for about 8 minutes in the 4th before another passing TD doomed them.

The Hogs rank 11/12 in conference in passing D, while the Wildcats come in at 10/12 in rushing D. Neither team will be able to stop the other team’s strength. Arkansas will be able to control the clock with their power running game, and DMac and company will be looking to atone from their loss last week. Andre Woodson’s conference record of consecutive passes with no interceptions will come to an end, and the Razorbacks grind out an exciting, high scoring win.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Arkansas State (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-2, 0-1)
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -19

This is the first meeting between these two programs, but Arkansas State is 1-44-3 versus current SEC teams. Tennessee needs a game like this after the shellacking they took on national television last week at the hands of the Gators. Arkansas State had a controversial 8-point loss to Texas in Week 1, so the Vols better not take them too lightly.

Last week appeared to be the first time QB Ainge was affected by the broken pinky on his throwing hand. He did complete 63% of his passes for ~250 yds, but he only threw for 1 TD against a Florida D that had allowed ~280 yds passing and 2 TDs to Troy the week before. Granted, Troy looked like world beaters last Friday against OKSt, but Vols fans would like to think they’ve got better talent than Troy.

For Fulmer’s sake, Tennessee needs a solid effort in all aspects of the game this weekend. The rumblings in Knoxville are getting louder with each passing week. Both Tennessee’s losses – Cal & UF – have come to teams that outclassed them in speed. UT’s defenders have looked flatfooted trying to run down the speedy skill-position guys. While Arkansas State seems to be improved this year, there’s no reason they should hang with Tennessee this weekend.The Vols nearly hung 40 on Southern Miss, they'll eclipse that this weekend.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

New Mexico St. (2-1) @ Auburn (1-2, 0-1)
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Auburn -17
Offensive guru, cheater, and former UK head coach Hal Mumme returns to the SEC this weekend with his NMSU Aggies. NMSU is 0-13 against current SEC teams, and has lost 15 straight non-conference road teams. This will only be the second time these programs have ever played with Auburn winning 55-14 in 1993. They would have to play this game 3 times for Auburn to score 55 points.

Auburn’s offensive woes have been well documented. The offensive line has been horrid and QB Brandon Cox has struggled, throwing 7 INTs to just 2 TDs. The defense will be tested this week, as – like all Mumme teams – NMSU likes to chuck it all over the field, and currently averages ~400 yds passing. The Aggie D surrenders 370 ypg and 27 ppg, so the opportunity to score is there. QB Kodi Burns may see more PT this weekend, after providing some spark for the Tigers last weekend.

HC Tuberville has made sure his Tigers realize the importance of this game. They need this to get to .500 and preserve any hope of a respectable season. NMSU can’t match the athletes that the Tigers have, but you have to wonder why Vegas thinks this Auburn team could outscore anyone by 17 points. Auburns wins, but not by much.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: NMSU

Gardner-Webb (1-1) @ Mississippi State (2-1, 1-1)
6:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

Mississippi State HC Croom looks to equal his win total from each of his first three seasons with a victory over 1AA Gardner-Webb this weekend. MSU did stumble against a 1AA opponent in 2004, losing 9-7 to Maine, but this is a fired up Bulldogs team now, with a very strong defense. They haven’t allowed a 2nd half point in either of the last two games, and probably won’t give up a single point all game Saturday.

MSU will be able to control the tempo of this game from the outset with RB Anthony Dixon. Reality will set back in with a trip to Columbia, SC next weekend, but the Bulldogs can enjoy being 3-1 for the first time in a long time.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: N/A

(#22, #21)UGA (2-1, 0-1) @ (#16, #20)Alabama (3-0, 2-0)
6:45 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -3.5

The Georgia Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Georgia has won 2 in a row in this series, though they're just 1-7 all-time in Tuscaloosa, with current HC Mark Richt winning 27-25 in 2002.

Georgia is trying to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, basically eliminating them from the SEC East race. They’ll try to build on their performance last week against Western Carolina. They’ve dominated their two non conference opponents, but failed to score a TD in their conference game against South Carolina. UGA will try to establish its running game early and let QB Stafford ease in to passing game. South Carolina was very effective taking away the deep ball, as Stafford averaged only ~5 yards per completion

Alabama HC Saban’s main jobs this week were to calm down the emotions after a shocking victory over Arkansas with :04 seconds left last week, and to get his defensive linemen rest. They were dragging at the end of that game after chasing down DMac, Felix Jones, and other Arkansas RBs. Saban inherited a veteran team, so the emotions should be in check this weekend. If Alabama wins this one, they’ll be 3-0 in conference before stepping out of conference the next 2 weekends. Freshman RB Terry Grant has been spectacular, ranking 2nd in conference behind DMac in rushing ypg. The Tide’ll have a similar game plan this week as they have all year – disciplined football, power running, efficient passing. QB Wilson gave Georgia something else to think about last week, throwing for 327 yds and 4 TDs.

Talent-wise, Georgia is the superior team in this game. They have big play capability on both sides of the ball. But, until they show consistency against a legitimate opponent, it’s hard to pick them to win in a hostile environment, especially against a veteran team and coach like Saban. Alabama will control the clock with Grant running the ball, and the D and QB Wilson will make just enough plays for the Tide to eke out a tough conference win.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Week 3 Predictions

Saturday
Mississippi State (1-0, 0-0) @ Auburn (1-0, 0-0)
11:30 CST, LFS
Wednesday's Line: Auburn -13

What looked to be a gimme win for Auburn before the season started, now seems as though it may be something of a battle. Auburn has won 6 in a row in this series, and Mississippi State hasn’t scored in this game since 2004, but this a different Tiger team than the one that's 33-5 the last 3 seasons.

Auburn’s offense has struggled in both games this season, particularly the offensive line. QB Brandon Cox has assumed most of the blame for Auburn’s offensive woes, as he’s barely completed 50% of his passes and has 4 interceptions and just 2 TDs. It doesn’t hep that the Tigers rank last in the conference in rushing ypg either. The defense has played well enough to give them a chance to win, but too many mistakes by Cox and company doomed them against USF.

Mississippi State rebounded from their dismal week 1 performance against LSU to pick up a much needed win against woeful Tulane. The defense played well again, limiting the Green Wave to 243 yards. They’ll face a fired up Tiger team this weekend looking to rebound form last week’s loss. The key matchup will be the Auburn O-Line vs the MSU D-Line.

This will be a low-scoring game, as neither offense is capable of putting up a lot of points against an SEC-caliber defense. It will be all about the in-game adjustments, and Auburn keeping Brandon Cox on his feet. When it comes down to Tuberville vs. Croom, give me the Riverboat Gambler any day of the week, and twice on a football Saturday. Auburn will win the game outright, but the 2 TD line may be too much to ask…

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Western Carolina (0-2) @ (#23, #25)Georgia (1-1, 0-1)
Noon CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

This game against the Catamounts falls at a perfect time for UGA. Their offense was held in check last week against South Carolina, so HC Mark Richt and staff can use this game as an opportunity to get things rolling again. In their other visit to an SEC stadium this year, WCU was rolled 52-6 by Alabama.

After an impressive opening game against Oklahoma State, the Dawgs sputtered badly against South Carolina, scoring scored 23 fewer points and converted only 3/18 3rd downs. QB Matthew Stafford should be able to get things back on track this week, and the holes should be much bigger for RBs Moreno and Lumpkin. With 4 SEC games the next 4 weeks – including 3 on the road – this is their last chance to get things back together.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: N/A

(#22, #24)Tennessee (1-1, 0-0) @ (#5, #3)Florida (2-0, 0-0)
2:30 CST, CBS
Wednesday's Line: Florida -8

This is another huge early season SEC matchup, much like Georgia/South Carolina last week. While both the Gators and Vols have been explosive on offense, averaging 54 and 35 ppg respectively, neither has shown much on defense. Cal ran roughshod over UT in Week 1 while Florida surrendered 336 yards and 31 points to Troy last week.

UT struggled against the team speed of Cal in Week 1, and they’ll be faced with a faster overall team in Florida. The Vols defense played better last week against USM, forcing 3 TOs and only allowing 2/16 3rd down conversions, but they did surrender 354 yards of offense. QB Ainge was fairly sharp again despite a broken pinky on his throwing hand. Not helping UT’s cause is losing defensive captain Antonio Gaines for the season last week to a knee injury.

If human cyborg Tim Tebow can pull this one out, his cult hero status in Gainesville will begin approaching Legendary. In two games this year, he’s already thrown for 536 yards and 6 touchdowns and rushed for 130 more yards. Florida’s going to score, no doubt, but the question remains if they can stop a real team on offense. The Vols will easily be the most explosive offense they face the first 5 games this season and will provide a stiff test for the Gator’s young D.

This has been a remarkably close series of late, with 6 of the last 9 being decided by 4 points or less, including UF’s 21-20 win last year. Both teams know how important this game is, as the loser of this game hasn’t made it to the SEC Championship Game since 1997. This will be a high scoring affair, but Florida’s got too much speed for the Vols to handle for 60 minutes.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

(#16, #16)Arkansas (1-0, 0-0) @ Alabama (2-0, 1-0)
5:45 CST, ESPN
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -3

Two serious contenders for second place in the SEC West do battle at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa this Saturday. Arkansas is coming off an off weekend, while Alabama slogged out a wet and wild victory in Nashville last week, winning 24-10 over an improved Vanderbilt squad. Arkansas has won 3 of the last 4, including 2 in double overtime.

Alabama dominated last year’s game in every aspect… except for the final score. Constant miscues led to a 24-23 loss in a 2OT game that jumpstarted Arkansas’ unlikely run to the SEC West title. This season, the Tide appear more disciplined than the last few years, having committed only 11 penalties and 1 turnover through 2 games. RB Terry Grant leads the SEC in rushing at 154.5 ypg. and TDs scored with 5.

When it comes to RBs though, Grant will only be the third best in this game. Arkansas’ dynamic duo of Felix Jones and Darren McFadden will be turned loose against a Tide D that is only allowing 66.5 yards per game. In its one game earlier this season, Arkansas ran for 350 yards (7.0 ypc) against Troy. While they won't come close to that, Arkansas should find some success on the ground. The question is, how much success will they have through the air. QB Casey Dick or DMac will need to stretch the Tide D to open up the running lanes for the potent ground attack.

This should be a great game. These are two evenly matched teams and I expect this to be a close game throughout. Despite the fact Alabama is playing at home, I give the slight edge in this one to the Hogs. The power running of DMac and Felix Jones will wear down the Tide defense and the Hogs will score on some kind of trick play late in the game to ice it. The Tide just don't have enough offense through the air to counteract Arkansas' ground game.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

South Carolina State (1-1) @ (#17, #23)South Carolina (2-0, 0-0)
6:00 CST, PPV
Wednesday's Line: No Line

Between the emotional high of beating Georgia on the road last week and the excitement of traveling to Baton Rogue next weekend, it’s a good thing the Gamecocks draw SCSU this weekend. Any kind of “real” opponent here would certainly qualify as a trap game.

While the defense has been stout – 2 TDs allowed in 2 games – and the special teams solid, eventually the Gamecocks will need to score a few more points. With Spurrier lurking on the sidelines, you know there’s always the potential to just draw up a pass play in the dirt, but that explosion has been lacking this year. After missing the first game of the season, QB Blake Mitchell played fairly well against UGA, completing a high percentage of his mostly short, safe passes. He should be able to find a solid rhythm early against SCSU, and build for the remainder of the season.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: N/A

Ole Miss (1-1, 0-0) @ Vanderbilt (1-1, 0-1)
6:00 PM, No TV
Wednesday's Line: Vanderbilt -5

Ole Miss travels to Nashville Saturday in what appears to be their best chance for a road SEC victory since 2004. The Rebels saw their long-stagnant offense come to life against a porous Missouri defense Saturday, while the Commodores not only lost the game, but star QB Nickson is questionable for the game Saturday. The Rebels have won 6/7 in this series, including the 17-10 victory last year.

Former walk-on QB Seth Adams has performed admirably for the Rebels in his two starts, throwing for 506 yds and 4 TDs, including 2 to DE Greg Hardy. All-SEC RB Benjaurvis Green-Ellis rushed for a career high 226 yards last week, and currently ranks 2nd in the conference in ypg. The Rebels have struggled in road games under Orgeron though, going just 2-9.

Vandy All-SEC WR Earl Bennett exploded in week 1 against Richmond, but against a tougher D last week, was held to 52 yards. Ole Miss surrendered 560 yards to Mizzou last week, including 330 through the air. Vandy doesn’t have that type of firepower, particularly if Nickson isn’t available or isn’t 100%. Vandy also doesn’t have the ground game to make up for any decline in the passing game, as they don’t have a single player who’s reached 100 yards yet for the season.

This game is important to both teams. For Vandy, bowl hopes ride on getting this win, while for Ole Miss, this would be the closest thing to a signature win for Orgeron. The Rebels want to use second half of last week’s game as a springboard for better times this season, as they outscored Mizzou 18-3 over the last 27 minutes. Vandy meanwhile will be searching for a ground game and some sort of offensive consistency. The Rebels should get the job done in Nashville Saturday and pull the mild upset.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

(#9, #9)Louisville (2-0) @ Kentucky (2-0, 0-0)
6:30 CST, ESPN Classic
Wednesday's Line: -6.5

While these two schools really dislike each other, even they have to admit this game has the potential to be one of the highest scoring of the year. Both teams sport ridiculously high scoring offenses (65.5 ppg for Louisville, 53 ppg for UK), Heisman candidate QBS (Brian Brohm and Andre Woodson), and defenses that, well, aren’t very good. Louisville gave up 554 yards and 42 points to Middle Tennessee State last week and UK gave 453 yards and 26 first downs to Kent State, and had a very hard time getting off the field.

This has been a tough series for UK lately, as Louisville has won 4 in a row and 7/8, including a 59-28 win in Louisville last season. If Kentucky is going to beat Louisville anytime soon, this is the year to do it. The Triplets – QB Woodson, RB Little, and WR Burton – are 0-3 against the Cardinals and know they can go to a much better bowl than the Music City Bowl if they pull the upset here. The onus falls on the Defense to get off the field and hold an explosive Cardinal offense in check. Even FGs will be something of a victory, as Kentucky will put up a lot of points in this one.

The Wildcats should pull the upset here, they’re at home, playing at night, and have the bad taste of all the recent losses to Louisville in their mouths. Louisville lost three starters in the secondary during the offseason, so there will be a lot of inexperience in the defensive backfield against a team currently averaging nearly 250 ypg through the air. This could very well be a five hour game with 80 or more points between the two of them, but in the end, the Big Blue Nation will be happy.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

Middle Tennessee State (0-2) @ (#2, #2)LSU (2-0, 1-0)
7:00 CST, No TV
Wednesday's Line: LSU -40

No team in the country has been even half as impressive as LSU has through 2 games. After predictably bombing Mississippi State in the opener, they hosted Virginia Tech last weekend in what was supposed to be a tight, low scoring game. Both defenses were great in Week 1 and both offenses struggled. Needless to say, LSU not only won, but embarrassed VTU on both sides of the ball, racking up 598 yards of offense and holding VTU to 149 yards, 11 first downs, and 7 points.

MTSU is coming off a game in which they gave Louisville all they could handle before falling 58-42. While their offense is explosive, they are defensively challenged, which spells disaster in Baton Rogue Saturday night.

Just like South Carolina (their next week’s opponent), LSU faces a trap this weekend. While MTSU is clearly better than South Carolina State, there’s no way LSU slips up Saturday, particularly with another late night kickoff. It’s hard to imagine that LSU’s focus will be entirely on this game though, or at least enough to cover this ridiculously large spread.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Middle Tennessee State

First Game in the Books

The SEC football season kicked off in a predictable way last night, with LSU's annual domination of Mississippi State. What wasn't as predictable was how LSU's offense - particularly 5th year senior QB Matt Flynn - stalled at times against a fired-up and solid Mississippi State defense.

For all but the last 2 seconds of the first half, the game was very much up in the air. MSU trailed by only 10, despite a dismal first half which saw QB Matt Henig throw 4 interceptions on 7 possessions. The cowbells (aren't they supposed to be a banned item?) were ringing loudly. And, despite positive field position nearly every possession, LSU had mustered only a FG and a TD and held what seemed to be a tenuous 10 point lead. LSU turned Henig's 4th interception into a 1-yd TD run as the 1st half ended, then iced the game with a easy TD march to open the 3rd quarter.

LSU's defense lived up to their preseason hype, thoroughly dominating this game from the opening kick. LSU outgained MSU 347-146, including 198-10 on the ground. Their defense will be tested much more next week, as the VTU Hokies visit Baton Rogue in a battle of Top 10 Teams. And while Flynn threw for 128 yards and 2 TDs, he completed only 12 passes to 5 receivers, and Early Doucet had 8 of those catches. The Hokies will bring a much more balanced attack next week and force Flynn to look to other guys besides Doucet. The extra 2 days of preparation and game film study should help Flynn adjust.

All in all, an easy pick for The Dead Guy both straight up and against the spread. Much like the Fightin' Bengal Tigers, I opened the season 1-0.