Chick-Fil-A Bowl Preview

LSU (7-5) vs (#14, #14)Georgia Tech (9-3)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA
December 31, 6:30 PM
All Time Series: Georgia Tech 14-6
All Time Bowl Records: Boston College 22-14, Vanderbilt 20-18-1
Monday’s Line: Georgia Tech -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Georgia Tech: 377.2 ypg (46th), 26.2 ppg (56th)
LSU: 371.8 ypg (54th), 30.3 ppg (30.3)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Georgia Tech: 312.7 ypg (22nd), 18.8 ppg (22nd)
LSU: 326.5 ypg (33rd), 24.9 ppg (64th)

This is not exactly what LSU fans had in mind before the season began, wrapping up a disappointing season before the change of the year. On the other side of the field, not many predicted that Georgia Tech would rebound from its recent mediocrity to win 9 games running Paul Johnson’s triple option.

Despite stellar talent on both sides of the ball, offensive and defensive inconsistencies have plagued the Tigers all season. Their remarkable +20 turnover margin last season fell to -4 this year as well. All-SEC RB Charles Scott is a load on offense, but with no reliable passing game, his numbers have tailed off some in the second half of the season.

While LSU has struggled all season against the pass, they’ve stopped the run consistently all season. The Tigers currently rank 16th in the country, giving up just 105.67 rush ypg. GTU won’t be intimidated, as they just ran for 409 yards against a Georgia team that was giving up just over 100 ypg on the ground in the season finale. The Yellow Jackets feature the ACC Offensive Player of the Year in Jonathan Dwyer, who led the ACC with 110.7 ypg rushing and was 2nd with 13 TDs. He’s rushed for 100+ yds 9x this season, including 4 straight.

As it stands, these teams are somewhat similar in playing styles. Both feature a tough run defense, tough RBs, and QBS who’d just as soon hand off. LSU ranks 67th in the country with 204.5 passing ypg, while GTU comes in at #117 with a whopping 95 ypg. I expect that GTU will pass a bit more than normal this game to take advantage of LSU’s 81st ranked secondary.

This is still the defending national champion and there is still a lot of talent on the field. Unfortunately for LSU fans, they’re not playing well together as a unit. While I don’t think that the Jackets will run wild like they did against UGA, they’ll run enough to take advantage of LSU’s porous pass defense. The difference in this game will be the Yellow Jacket defense. With a one-dimensional offense, LSU will have trouble moving the ball against the Ramblin’ Wreck. This should be one of the best non-BCS games of the Bowl Season, but unfortunately, another where the SEC comes out the loser.

Georgia Tech 27, LSU 21

The Sporting News Rates the Bowls

The Sporting News has ranked the Bowl Games 1-34 and it’s a little different from Rivals' picks. Here’s how TSN sees the SEC games.

1. BCS Title Game
There’s major pressure on Florida’s young defense and Oklahoma’s banged-up group to make a handful of stops and force a turnover or two.

3. Cotton Bowl
A curious case here for erratic Tech, which could roll with 10 touchdowns or fold after a poor regular-season finish. Ole Miss, with road wins over Florida and LSU, won’t be intimidated by the Red Raiders.

10. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Nothing like Paul Johnson’s triple option in the background to ring in the new year.

13. Sugar Bowl
Smell a barnburner? You’re not alone.

15. Capital One Bowl
This might be the last go-around for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno at Georgia

22. Outback Bowl
The game’s a scout’s dream and a fan’s nightmare.

30. Liberty Bowl
Not much talent on the field for this one.

32. Music City Bowl
What time does Opryland close New Year’s Eve?

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Thursday Afternoon Linkage

* It’s meaningless and inherently flawed, but quick… name the SEC school ranked highest in the New America Foundation’s 2nd Annual BCS Academic Standings. For the 99% of you that said Vanderbilt, you’re wrong. It’s Ole Miss.

The NFA’s formula starts with the team's most recent federal graduation rate, which includes four classes of players who entered college between 1998 and 2001 and graduated within six years of initial enrollment. Then, each team gains or loses points based on (A) the gap between the team's graduation rate and the overall school's graduation rate and (B) the gap between the team's black-white player graduation rate disparity and the overall school's disparity. Finally, the team gains or loses points if its Academic Progress Rate exceeds or falls below the Division I-A median.

* Chris Low runs down the Top 25 players in the SEC. Alabama leads the way with 7. Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss check in with 3 a piece, while LSU and Tennessee have 2 each.

* Auburn’s questionable hire of Gene Chizik has raised more than a few eyebrows across the SEC and the blogosphere ( I know, who knew?). Pat Forde grades the recent SEC hires and drops this gem:

Maybe Chizik will be the next Bill Parcells -- he went 3-8 in his first year as a head coach, at the Air Force Academy in 1978 -- before turning out all right. But until that happens, this has the makings of the worst hire in SEC history.

Dan Wetzel shares a similar viewpoint.

* Jason Whitlock is dead on again. While race may or may not have been a determining factor in Auburn’s passing on the more-talented Turner Gill for the Ed Orgeron Redux that is Gene Chizik, Auburn may not have been the right fit for Gill at this point of his career.

A Closer Look at the AP All-American Teams

With all the talk of the SEC being down a bit this year, only the Big 12 landed more players (18) on the 2008 AP All-American teams than the SEC’s 14. Not surprisingly, the Big 12 is heavy on the offensive side of the ball, landing 14 offensive players on the 3 teams. The SEC was second with 7. The ACC led all conferences with 9 All-American defensive players. The SEC was second with 7.

Here’s a look at how it breaks down by conference, by All-America team, 1st – 3rd.


While football is undoubtedly a bona fide team sport, you’ve got to have individual talent to win. The argument can rage for days about whether the Big 12 offenses are that good or the defenses are that bad. The exact opposite question is applied to the SEC. Unfortunately, there’s no answers to that here, or anywhere until the bowl games are played.

As a side note, SECSports lists only 13 SEC players on its website, but they missed LSU’s Herman Johnson, which is remarkably tough to do, given his stature.

Rivals ranks the SEC Bowl Games

Rivals has ranked the bowl games from 1-34 in terms of intrigue and interest. With 68 teams making the postseason these days, there are quite a few games that even alumni probably can’t get up for. Of the 8 SEC games, 5 rank pretty high (top 13). The other 3… not so much.

Here’s how Rivals sees it:

1. BCS National Championship Game, Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1):
It's for the national title, which makes it No. 1 on this list. The past two title games have been decided by a total of 41 points. That may be the number of points needed to win this one.

6. Sugar Bowl, Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0):
Utah has a lot to prove, despite its unbeaten record. Will Alabama suffer any kind of hangover from its SEC title game loss?

7. Capital One Bowl, Georgia (9-3) vs. Michigan State (9-3):
An intriguing Big Ten-SEC matchup. Michigan State can't pass, but TB Javon Ringer had a great season and Georgia's defense has had trouble against the run. And can Michigan State slow Georgia TB Knowshon Moreno? In their three losses, the Spartans' defense was run over.

9. Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1):
Ole Miss has a good front four, and if you can harass Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, he becomes an average quarterback. But only one team was really able to harass him this season. Watch Ole Miss junior DE Greg Hardy, who could declare for the draft. Hardy could make himself quite a bundle of money with a big game.

13. Chick-fil-A Bowl, Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5):
This basically is a home game for the Yellow Jackets, who will be playing a few miles from their campus in downtown Atlanta. LSU comes in having lost three of their past four. If the Tigers' defense doesn't awaken from its season-ending slumber, LSU is going to finish 7-6 one season after winning the national title.

22. Outback Bowl, Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5):
Iowa runs well but can't throw. South Carolina runs poorly and would like to throw but can't. At least both play good defense.

26. Music City, Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6):
Vanderbilt comes in having lost six of its past seven. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us. BC, by the way, holds the nation's longest current bowl winning streak, at eight games.

27. Liberty Bowl, East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6):
Kentucky comes in having lost three in a row, four of five and six of eight. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us.

While Chris Low (ESPN) doesn’t delve into all 34 games, he ranks the SEC games in that same order. From a neutral standpoint, that’s probably how I’d have to rank them as well. On a national scale, I think the Outback should be higher than the 22nd most interesting bowl, but I agree with its pecking order in the rank of SEC games.

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Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

Here's a look at this week's SEC Bowl projections from a panel of "experts".

* Apparently NBC's Cary Estes was projecting Auburn to knock off Georgia as the Tigers have disappeared off this list completely.

* Tennessee and Mississippi State are already guaranteed losing seasons. Arkansas and Auburn are both mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, but both teams would need major upsets to go their way.

* I know Alabama fans are upset that they're being slighted - #1 in the country and not predicted to reach the title game - but the simple fact of the matter is that the Gators are the best team in the country right now. Both teams just need to stay focus and avoid pitfalls between now and December 6th.

* Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt are all about equal in the eyes of the 5 pundits listed. I've talked about this before in previous threads, but I don't think the Music City Bowl would take Kentucky for a third straight year unless their hand is forced by circumstance. And I doubt the Wildcats players or fans would be too excited either.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (which chooses teams before the Music City Bowl) has the choice between a 7-5 Ole Miss team and a 7-5 Kentucky team, my guess is that they'd take UK to revitalize the CATlanta atmosphere so prevalent at the SEC Basketball tournament of years past. If Ole Miss knocks of LSU this weekend and finishes 8-4 and 2nd in the West though, the 'Cats may end up back in Nashville.

* Vanderbilt is in an interesting situation as the Music City Bowl is hosted (basically) just across the river from their campus. While the 'Dores certainly won't be picky about a bowl game after a 25 year drought, the coaching staff may prefer to travel to another city to be sure the players get the full bowl experience.

They could theoretically end up in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a win over UT this weekend and knocking off Wake Forest on the road next weekend. That would then send UK to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl and Ole Miss to Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

* UPDATED 11/18/08Mandel's picks are in from CNN/SI. Apparently, he thinks the Gamecocks are going to lose next weekend in Clemson, as he projects Ole Miss to take the Outback Bowl bid. While a Gamecock loss is certainly not out of the question, I'm not sure that would land Ole Miss in Tampa.

From the Bowl Tie-In Page on SECSports.com:

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.

In his scenario, the Cotton Bowl selects LSU, which would seem to imply the Tigers beat the Rebels this weekend. The Outback Bowl takes Ole Miss, which they'd be allowed to do since the Cotton Bowl had already taken an SEC West team. To me, it seems that if the Rebels beat LSU and MSU, they'd be more attractive to the Cotton Bowl than LSU would be. If they don't beat LSU, it seems the Gamecocks would be more attractive to the Outback Bowl than the Rebels unless they get blown out at Clemson next week. Neither scenario has the Rebels landing in the Outback Bowl.

Random Bits

* There were 4 SEC baseball stadiums named to Rivals Top 10 list, though it may not be the ones you thought it would be. The site offers this disclaimer:

LSU and South Carolina were omitted from our list because both schools have ballparks that still are under construction.

As for the ones that did make the list:

Baum Stadium – Arkansas
Baum Stadium is the palace of college baseball stadiums. Though many schools now are building new stadiums, they still are playing catch up with the Razorbacks. When Baum Stadium was erected in 1996, it was the class of college baseball. Not much has changed, as the capacity currently is 10,500 and luxury suites extend from the left-field foul pole to the right-field foul pole. Arkansas fans also pack the house rain or shine and provide a premier home-field advantage for their baseball program. Everyone aspires to have a facility like the University of Arkansas.

Polk-Dement Stadium -- Mississippi State
No school blows out a postseason party in a regional or super regional quite like Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs struggle to fill the stands until the weather warms up, Polk-Dement Stadium is an excellent venue to watch a game. In addition to a roomy grandstand, the Bulldogs also have what is called the "Left-Field Lounge", where patrons line the outfield wall with barbeque pits, coolers and whatever else they can get in their possession. The official capacity for the stadium, including outfield seating, is 15,000. Those that watched the Starkville super regional two seasons ago know exactly what the Bulldogs are about at Polk-Dement Stadium.

Oxford-University Stadium -- Ole Miss
Ole Miss has one of the hidden gems in college baseball. Though observers in the Southeastern part of the country know about the great atmosphere at Oxford-University Stadium, people nationally just now are getting a taste of what the Rebels are about. O-U Stadium holds about 3,500 spectators in the main grandstand, but thousands of fans often line the grassy areas down the left and right field lines and the outfield. In 2005, a record 10,119 fans were in attendance as the Rebels played Alabama. Ole Miss currently is in the midst of a renovation campaign that will increase grandstand seating.

Plainsman Park – Auburn
When the Tigers decided to renovate their facility in 1996, many schools, including Baylor, took notice of the project. Plainsman Park is one of the nation's best stadiums and has a wonderful façade to go with a cozy atmosphere. Plainsman Park has a capacity of 4,096 fans. However, the record attendance for a single-game was set in 2002, as 4,715 fans packed the stadium to watch Auburn play LSU. Recently, the Tigers have installed a new drainage system for the playing surface and a state-of-the-art strength and rehabilitation center. Auburn certainly is a trendsetter.

* ESPN has their first Bracketology up for the 2008-09 season and Lunardi projects just 5 SEC teams to dance this year:

Florida (2-seed)
Tennessee (4-seed)
Kentucky (8-seed)
Alabama (11-seed)
LSU (13-seed)

I’ll throw out that Ole Miss will make the tournament in the form of an 8-10 seed as well. They’ve been on the bubble the last two seasons and will pull it through this year. Lunardi projected them back in April in his first post-tourney Bracketology listing, so I’m not sure why they dropped.

Hard to believe the season kicks off in earnest this weekend. I’ll get a preview up sometime next week.

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

My Thoughts:
* I added in Stewart Mandel's picks from CNN/SI, though his fall in line with majority consensus on every game.

* With Penn State's loss to Iowa, both Alabama and Florida control their own destiny to play in the BCS Title game. As long as neither slips up against their final 2 regular season opponents, the loser of the clash in Atlanta will receive a Sugar Bowl Bid as a consolation prize.

* Please disregard any posts I may have made in the past weeks stating that Tennessee would rally around Fulmer's departure and win out. What a horrid performance they put on Saturday.

* And if anyone knows how to reach Cary Estes, the contributing writer for NBC.com, I'd love to hear if he thinks Auburn is going to knock off Georgia or Alabama to get their 6th win and wrap up an Independence Bowl bid.

* At least to me, it doesn't make sense for Kentucky to end up in Nashville for a 3rd straight season. The Bowl-Tie-In page on the SEC's site says:

In selections 6-7, the AutoZone Liberty and Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowls will make their selections, not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office. The Bowls will rank available qualified teams in order of preference. If there are no similarities in the order of selection, the bowls will be granted its selection. If the bowls rank the same teams in preference, the team involved in the process would get its preference of which bowl to participate.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl selects Ole Miss over UK, that's going to leave the 'Cats and (supposedly) Vanderbilt left as the 6th and 7th bowl-eligible teams. Obviously the Liberty Bowl would rank Vanderbilt ahead of Kentucky, but would the Music City Bowl rank Kentucky ahead of Vanderbilt on its list of preferences? And even if they did, would Kentucky really opt to head to Nashville again?

* I'm still not convinced that Vanderbilt wins another game this season to wrap up that Liberty Bowl bid. They're stuck in a pressure cooker at this point and with a shaky defense and shakier offense, win #6 is looking tougher.

* I like Bruce Feldman. I really do. He and Chris Low are the best two college football writers espn.com has. But there's no way that the Capital One Bowl deems LSU the most attractive non-BCS-Bowl-bound SEC team. Sitting at 3-3, they're going to have to work just to finish with a winning conference record. Ole Miss and Arkansas are certainly capable of knocking them off. Georgia is far and away the more attractive option there, especially considering the woodshed beating laid on the Tigers in Tiger Stadium.

I Can't Say I'm Surprised...

but it doesn't make this news any less mind-boggling.

EVERGREEN, Ala. — Authorities say an argument over Saturday's Alabama-LSU football game led to the shooting deaths of a couple at a home in southern Alabama.

Prosecutors identified the victims as Dennis and Donna Smith of Brewton. The shooting happened about 7 p.m. Saturday at the home of Michael Williams in the rural community of Owassa.

Williams was arrested and charged with two counts of murder.

Investigators told the Press-Register newspaper in Mobile that Dennis Smith, an LSU fan, called Williams, an Alabama fan, after Alabama's 27-21 overtime win and an argument ensued.

The Smiths went to Williams' home. Investigators said Smith had a pistol and Williams had a shotgun and fired. Donna Smith was a relative of Williams' girlfriend.

I can't even begin to wrap my mind around the idiocy of this. My guess is that neither the Smiths or Williams have ever stepped foot on the campus of Alabama or LSU (or any institute of higher learning for that matter). In my mind, in Williams' mugshot, I'm picturing unkempt facial hair and a mullet and possibly an "I'm With Stupid -->" shirt.

I just hope the state doesn't implode following this year's Iron Bowl - whatever the result is.

Week 11 SEC Bowl Projections

After a weekend of games that helped solidify the pecking order in the SEC, projections (for the most part) are starting to be a little more consistent.

My Thoughts:

* Despite being #1 in the country and the only undefeated team left in conference, no one's projecting Alabama to hang onto that spot and make it to the BCS Title Game. After Florida's performances the last 2 weeks, it's hard to blame them.

* Ole Miss is seemingly the hardest team for the pundits to get a read on. The 5 projections here have them going to 4 different bowls. No other team has more than 2.

* I tend to agree with CBS and Scout that Tennessee finds itself back in a bowl game to send Fulmer out. The remaining teams on Tennessee's schedule - Wyoming, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky - are certainly all winnable games.

* I also tend to agree with Scout that Vandy won't be bowling this year. Their 5-0 start was an aberration and a forgotten one at that. They've got 4 games left, but this weekend's beatdown by Florida may drain what little life the 'Dores have left.

* Give credit to Petrino and the Hogs for turning around what was certainly a disastrous start to the SEC season, but I don't see them beating LSU or South Carolina, one of which they'll have to do to play in a bowl.

* Would the Music City Bowl really want Kentucky again? They're already the 2-time defending Music City Bowl Champs? Isn't that enough?

* Apparently they feel that if the Independence Bowl can't have Alabama, they don't want any SEC team. Only 1 projection for the Indy Bowl, and it's for Arkansas, which I just don't see happening.

Rivals Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects

Yesterday, Rivals put up their early look at the NFL Draft Top 100 prospects. Needless to say, the SEC was well represented, landing 28 players on the list, including the top 3 spots. The wealth is spread out amongst the league as 10 teams land at least one player in the Top 100 and 7 teams have multiple players listed.

Given the SEC’s success churning out 1st round draft picks over last decade though, this should hardly be a surprise. It’s interesting to see the differences between Rivals and ESPN’s 2009 mock draft 1st round.

LSU leads the way with 6 players, followed by Florida with 5, Georgia with 4, Tennessee and Alabama with 3, Arkansas and Ole Miss with 2, and Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State with 1 a piece. Here’s a look at the players and what Rivals has to say about each.

* indicates underclassmen

1. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Oher has a rare blend of size, athleticism and girth. He entered the 2008 NFL draft, then pulled out a few days later even though he was considered a first-round pick. New coach Houston Nutt is glad he stayed. This time around, Oher – now a senior – could be the first player taken in the draft. He is No. 1 on the Rivals.com list of the top 100 pro prospects and could be the second consecutive offensive tackle chosen No. 1 overall; the Miami Dolphins took Michigan's Jake Long with the No. 1 pick earlier this year.

2. Andre Smith *, OT, Alabama
A massive tackle with great feet, in the mold of former first-round pick Shawn Andrews.

3. Matthew Stafford *, QB, Georgia
The most natural pocket passer in the nation. He has a skill set similar to Carson Palmer's.

12. Knowshon Moreno *, RB, Georgia
He is the most "natural" running back in the nation, with a combination of vision, quickness and balance. He has a good burst and a second gear.

16. Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
The best center prospect we have seen in the past five years.

18. Ricky Jean-Francois *, DT, LSU
Was the quickest and most disruptive LSU defensive lineman in the national championship game last season and, yes, that includes Glenn Dorsey.

20. Jermaine Cunningham *, DE, Florida
A compact, powerful end with speed, power and change-of-direction skill on the edge.

22. Herman Johnson, G, LSU
He's an amazing physical specimen at 6 feet 8 and 360 pounds who can move and re-direct in space. He's fluid and agile for a man his size.

23. Percy Harvin *, WR, Florida
An explosive athlete in space who can make a play any time he has the ball.

31. Tim Tebow *, QB, Florida
A dual run/pass threat who has all the intangibles. He can buy time in the pocket but needs to learn to read defenses more consistently in the passing game.

32. Geno Atkins *, DT, Georgia
Another explosive SEC three-technique defensive tackle. He will get a lot more attention from opposing linemen with the season-ending injury to Bulldogs DT Jeff Owens.

35. Derek Pegues, FS, Mississippi State
He is built and runs like a corner, but is a ballhawk as a safety.

36. Rico McCoy *, LB, Tennessee
Undersized but has the most impressive fluidity and range of any linebacker in the draft. He should really rise up draft boards.

39. Ciron Black *, OT, LSU
Displays a compact stance and moves well laterally. He can re-direct and has the quickness to reach the corner.

47. Greg Hardy *, DE, Ole Miss
His long limbs and speed make him difficult to block. He has the quickness to beat tackles outside or inside off the snap.

48. Brandon Spikes *, LB, Florida
A powerful linebacker who showcases good instincts inside, and does a nice job stacking and shedding versus the run.

53. Louis Murphy, WR, Florida
Showcases great deep speed and is a constant vertical threat. Is a raw route runner and lacks consistent hands.

57. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina
A smooth tackle who can handle speed off the edge. He is coordinated re-directing but needs to improve his technique.

58. Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
Has a great combination of power and athleticism. He is natural in space and gets a good push as an in-line run blocker.

64. Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia
A sideline-to-sideline athlete who has a nose for the ball and makes plays all over the field.

68. Sen'Derrick Marks *, DT, Auburn
A big-bodied tackle who can eat up space on the inside, and shows the power to push the pocket and anchor versus the double-team.

69. Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
Ideal for a zone-blocking scheme. He displays great feet and body control, and can really get out to the second level.

72. Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
Has a big, strong frame and is powerful attacking downhill. He has the athleticism to run sideline-to-sideline.
A strider who is sudden out of his breaks and does well going up and attacking the ball.

75. Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee
He's thickly built, with a compact frame. Has smooth lateral mobility and a strong punch, showcases good body control and never over-extends.

78. Keiland Williams *, RB, LSU
Dynamic with the ball in his hands, but lacks the girth and instincts to be successful between the tackles.

82. Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Possesses great size, length and suddenness off the edge. He needs to play with more power and more of a mean streak.

94. Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
Possesses great size and quickness through the tackles, but tries to run like a scatback too often and doesn't lower his head and drive for tough yards.

100. Terrence Cody *, DT, Alabama
Displays amazing athleticism for a man who weighs 370 pounds. He could really soar up draft boards with a strong season.

2008 SEC West Predictions

Every team in the West has questions this year - How will Auburn do running the spread for a full season? What kind of production will LSU get from its QBs? Will Alabama greatly improve in year 2 under Nick Saban? Can Houston Nutt win in Oxford with the talent Orgeron left him? How will Mississippi State score this year? How will Bobby Petrino do with inferior talent?

1. Auburn
Tuberville has established Auburn as one of the most consistent programs in America, but he shook things up last year after the Iron Bowl to implement the spread offense. They return nearly everyone on offense, so the transition should be a smooth one, but how it holds up for 12+ games remains to be seen. With all their tough games (except Alabama) at home, Auburn should win the West.

Best Case Scenario:
Kodi Burns steps in and plays like he's capable, the defense is strong, the Iron Bowl domination continues, and they end the season in the Sugar Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:
The offense sputters like it did early last season, the Tigers are embarrassed on national TV by West Virginia, the Iron Bowl trophy goes back to Tuscaloosa, and AU finishes the season in Shreveport

2. LSU
The defending BCS Champs will have a very different look this season with so many key departures from last season. They'll still field one of the top OLs and DLs in the SEC -thus the country - and have their typical stable of talented RBs. Now it's just a question of who's going to be under center. With road games at Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina in a 4-game stretch, it's hard to see the Bayou Bengals repeating as division champs.

Best Case Scenario
Steady QB play couple with trench-dominating lines lead LSU back to the BCS

Worst Case Scenario
Les Miles' magic 8-ball coaching decisions don't pan out like they did nearly every single time last year, QB play is sketchy, and the tough schedule proves too much and LSU winds up in Nashville

3. Alabama
Year 2 of the Nick Saban era begins with the Tide still sporting more talent than last year's team, a nice tandem of RBs and one of the most experienced QBs in the league. The Tide should be better this season and should will finish with back-to-back winning seasons for the second time since 1996. It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that the Tide could compete for the West, but road games at UGA, Tennessee, and LSU make it unlikely.

Best Case Scenario
Knocking off perennially overrated Clemson to open the season, finally beating Auburn, and facing UF in the SEC Championship Game

Worst Case Scenario
Bookend blowout losses to the season, ending up in the Papajohns.com Bowl or equivalent because Shreveport doesn't want them again

4. Ole Miss
After 3 of the worst non-Vandy years in recent SEC memory, Ole Miss fired Ed Orgeron and brought in Houston Nutt. Orgeron left plenty of talent for Nutt to work with, though much of it unproven, particularly in the offensive backfield. With a manageable schedule, the Rebels could be bowling by season's end, though that's certainly no guarantee. Nutt's teams always seems to knock off someone they're not supposed, but by the same token, he often drops the inexplicable games too.

Best Case Scenario
If everyone buys into the system and performs like they're capable, the Rebels could win 7-8 games this year and wind up in Memphis for the Liberty Bowl

Worst Case Scenario
QB Snead doesn't live up to hype, critical depth shortages at key positions prove disastrous, and the Golden Egg stays in Starkville while the Rebels endure a 5th straight season with no bowl game.

5. Mississippi State
While the Bulldogs were a great story last year, the reality was they were - perhaps - the worst 8-win team in SEC history. A stout, opportunistic defense paved the way for the team as the offense was inept at best. It's tough to see them duplicating that kind of success this season without scoring more points, but all signs indicate that's an unlikelihood. A soft schedule probably means a bowl game though.

Best Case Scenario
The offense improves while the defense stays strong and the Bullies catch a few more lucky breaks and wind up in a 2nd straight bowl game

Worst Case Scenario
The offense performs like it did in the Spring Game, the defense wears down from overuse and all the positive vibes from last season are long forgotten in an ugly year

6. Arkansas
Everything that can be said about the Arkansas coaching situation has been, so I'll leave it alone. The bottom line is that Petrino is stepping into a less-than-ideal situation talent-wise. He returns an experienced QB in Casey Dick, but is that really a good thing? Petrino may very well win at Arkansas, but it's not going to be this season.

Best Case Scenario
Even with all the lucky breaks this side of the moon, anything better than 6-6 is a pipe dream

Worst Case Scenario
If the more talented team wins every game played, the Hogs will win no more than 4 games

Not too much going on these days...

Other than what seems to be a twice-weekly occurrence of players being booted off teams, all's quiet for now. Well, except for Urban Meyer. Most of you have probably heard about this...

Simply calling Tim Tebow the best quarterback in college football apparently isn't enough. Gators coach Urban Meyer told a Miami audience that Tebow ''is the greatest player of our era.''

Tebow certainly has the potential to be the greatest player of this era, but I think it's premature to bestow that honor on him just yet. The MNC ring as a freshman and the Heisman as a sophomore put him in a class by himself, but he's got at least one year in college. SEC coaching staffs have had another full offseason to work on defensive schemes to slow him down. And, there are plenty of defenders across the SEC who will take a little extra joy popping the defending Heisman winner.

* ESPN loves to make up new statistics and shove them down our throats - OPS anyone? Their latest is to come up with (in their mind) the definitive way to measure the prestige of all college basketball programs since 1984-85, the year the tourney went to its current format. They've listed #s 41-50 here and #s 51-300 here.

I love the reasoning ESPN gives as to how these numbers are indisputable:

Normally when you see these rankings, they are the "expert" opinion of one or more people whose knowledge (and sanity) usually is questioned by those who disagree. But with ESPN's Prestige Rankings, there is no such argument. We let the numbers do the talking. We assigned point values for certain successes (win a national title, earn 25 points) and failures (get your program banned from the NCAA tournament, lose three points), put all the seasons through our big calculator and came up with the No. 1 program (and the No. 300 program) of the past 24 seasons.

But I digress.

So far, 8 of the SEC's 12 schools have shown up...
41. LSU
T-86. Mississippi State
T-90. Auburn
T-96. Vanderbilt
99. Tennessee
T-105. Georgia
T-185. South Carolina
T-192. Mississippi

...which leaves Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama. Without taking the time to do the math, It'll be interesting to see if UF or UK comes out on top for the SEC. Each has 2 championships and a title game loss. I'd imagine Alabama will be in the next group, Florida in the 20s, and Arkansas somewhere in the teens. Even with mediocre play lately you gotta figure UK is in the Top 10.

In the end though, it's just another excuse for ESPN to fawn over ACC basketball. Once the top 10 is unveiled Friday, you can count on Duke Vitale to show up on Sportscenter and go crazy for Dook and UNC.

*UPDATE: 7/22*As expected, Alabama shows up at #35. More than any other SEC team, Alabama had the most opportunity to be higher than they are. While Florida had some painful early exits in recent years, the Tide made it routine in the late 80s/early 90s.
*UPDATE: 7/23*Florida checks in at #21
*UPDATE: 7/24*Arkansas shows up at #15
*UPDATE: 7/25*>Kentucky ranks #4, based almost entirely on Pitino's utter dominance of the SEC when he there.

* Next time you think you're doing well at the gym, try not to think of UT OL Jacques McClendon and how he benched 645 pounds. And no that's not a typo...

* Fairly interesting read on BleacherReport today: 30 Fearless Predictions for the 2008 season

* Off topic, but if you haven't see The Dark Knight yet, what are you waiting for? Christopher Nolan's Batman franchise is what all other superhero franchises wish they were. Superman Returns was mediocre at best and, after Spiderman 3, that franchise is dead. Iron Man was good, but Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are in a league of their own when it comes to Superhero movies.

Could the SEC have 10 Bowl Teams in 2008-09?

ESPN's Mark Schlabach believes that 10 SEC teams will be bowling at the end of the 2008 season. He predicts:

*Georgia vs Ohio State in the National Title Game
(Oh goody, tOSU vs the SEC in a bowl game... How exciting!)
*Auburn vs Texas Tech in the Sugar Bowl
(Would be interesting to see the contrast of styles)
*Ole Miss vs Houston in the Liberty Bowl
(OM from 0-8 in conference to a respectable bowl?)
*LSU vs Texas in the Cotton Bowl
(I'm sure Cotton Bowl officials are praying for this matchup)
*Florida vs Illinois in the Capital One Bowl
(Gee, I wonder what the appeal of this matchup is)
*Tennessee vs Penn State in the Outback Bowl
(Don't these two play every year somewhere in Florida?)
*Alabama vs Virginia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl
(Word is they'll move the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to Shreveport to make the transition easier on the Tide players)
*South Carolina vs Miami in the Music City Bowl
(Not the bowl game Gamecock fans have in mind for this year)
*Kentucky vs Rutgers in the Papajohns.com Bowl
(I'll be surprised if UK is in any bowl game this year)
*Mississippi State vs Oklahoma State in the Independence Bowl
(See above notes)

AJC not very high on SEC basketball for 08-09

Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal Constitution has a look at the upcoming college basketball season. While he - like many - assume it's a foregone conclusion that UNC will walk away with the national title, the rest of his top 25 is fairly intriguing. From the SEC, he ranks Tennessee #5, Florida #17, and Ole Miss #24.

I think Tennessee will actually be better in 08-09 than they were last year, but they won't have as good a record. And by better, I mean they'll advance deeper in the tournament. This past year's team - like Vandy - relied too much on jump shots to operate. They'll be much more post-oriented next season.

Florida and Ole Miss both have awesome young backcourts that gained invaluable experience last year. Both have major questions inside though, as UF's Speights has entered the NBA draft and OM lost their 3 big guys to graduation. If either team can just consistent play inside, the sky is the limit for either team.

I've said it before - even with the loss of Randoplh - LSU has the talent in place to be good. Now that they have a coach who knows what he's doing, they may be able to maintain the consistency that John Brady never could.

Why you should love every college football team

The guys over at Cake Rocks the Party have put together a list of reasons to pull for every team in the country. Some are quite funny, some not so much. But in a college-football starved region of the country, it’s certainly worth a read.

For those interested only in the SEC teams, here ya go:

78. Vanderbilt: Here’s the thing about Vanderbilt. They always seem to have one or two good pro prospects, even if it is a lot more academic than athletic at Vandy. This year’s big prospect is Thomas Welch.

63. Kentucky: Now we all know about the magic quarterbacking that Andre Woodson perpetrated. But did you know that Curtis Pulley actually beat him out? It’s true! So maybe Andre Woodson went all Batman in the Summer of 2006. But by this analogy? Curtis Pulley is Wolverine. That’s all good sir.

54. Arkansas: We may get an opportunity to see if Bobby Petrino is nothing more than a licensed asshole. If Casey Dick (a.k.a. the Swiftboat Quarterback for Truth)** can become a good passer? Then Bobby Petrino is the truth in the college ranks.

53. Ole Miss: Good news for Michael Oher! The subject of The Blind Side finally has someone legitimate that needs his…blind side…protected in Jevan Snead. Sure, it’s year one of the Houston Nutt Oxford Era? But they have an offense and a defense of experience! Huzzah? Sure!

46. Mississippi State: Hey, did you know the African-American can coach college football? By the lack of black faces, you may not have noticed. But it’s true! And you know what else? They can take a small town in Mississippi and send them to Bowl Game excitement! I wonder why more Athletic Directors don’t consider going down this road?

27. South Carolina: I’m not too proud to be lazy, I’m going to crack wise on the comedy that is somebody with the last name of Smelley, especially when he plays for the Gamecocks. And during my time as a game show gadabout I asked for a smelley gamecock.

24. Tennessee: In a world with Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow, Knowshon Moreno, Matt Stafford, and even Michael Oher’s got some juice behind his name. It’s hard out there for an Arian Foster. He’s just a solid back from a school with a good pedigree. Maybe if he gets arrested, he’ll get the hype he needs

20. Alabama: The Saban is the devil. The Devil is a good recruiter. Julio Jones will be playing Sam to Nick Saban’s Ray Wise. All John Parker Wilson has to do is make a virgin sacrifice at the opening frat party where some white dude’s sporting Blackface. Yes, the one on Water Street.

13. Auburn: Can a system that allowed Troy to take down Brad Smith’s Mizzou or Zac Robinson’s Oklahoma State work in the big time? Auburn hired Tony Franklin to find out. It ruled for the Peach Bowl, but what happens when all the offensive players are new fish? That’s just intrigue.

7. LSU: Now, you and I love Glenn Dorsey. But here’s the thing. The Bayou Bengal’s D-Line may not lose the smooth now that Dorsey’s gone. Tyson Jackson’s a force, and Ricky Jean-Francois may be just one touch higher caliber than Glenn Dorsey. If they can avoid the shootout noid? They’ll be mighty.

6. Florida: Umm, is it all right if I go for the photo and move on? Percy Harvin’s awesome pass-catching skills say it is.

1. Georgia: If you want one off the Knowshon Moreno-Matt Stafford path? There is a sleeper of potential emergence, if you believe that freshman defenders only grow? Then you need to feat your eyes on Rennie Curran. If not? I heard that Knowshon’s got a good shot of getting the Heisman.

College Baseball Brackets

The baseball regionals were announced yesterday and 9/12 (75%) of the league will be playing postseason baseball. While the conference was not as strong this year as it has been in the past, LSU (#7) and Georgia (#8) both managed to secure National Seeds and seem to represent the best SEC chances to reach Omaha. The 9 teams in the tournament were far and away the most of any conference, but the 2 1-seeds was only half the ACC's 4. Get a copy of the bracket here.

Speaking of LSU, their current winning streak is absolutely ridiculous. For those not into college baseball, the Bayou Bengals have pieced together an unbelievable 20-game winning streak, and have not lost a game since April 19, when they dropped a game in Athens to fall to 6-11 in conference. After tying UGA 10-10 in 12 innings on April 20, they’ve won their midweek games and swept conference series from USC, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If they beat a 16-32 Texas Southern team, they’ll set a new conference record for consecutive wins.

Other SEC schools still playing:
Ole Miss: Headed to Coral Gables, FL as a #3 to be fed to the Miami Hurricanes
Kentucky: An 18-0 start turned into a #3 seed in Ann Arbor
South Carolina: I like the Gamecock’s chances in Raleigh
Arkansas: The Palo Alto Regional consists of #1 Stanford, #2 Pepperdine, #4UC-Davis, and the #3 Hogs. Losing that season-ending series to the last place MSU Bulldogs really put a damper on the season
Florida: Gators are visiting their good friends in Tallahassee in what should be a not-so-friendly atmosphere as the Noles’ p*nis envy tends to shine in matchups with the Gators
Alabama: The Tide head to an overlooked and underrated Coastal Carolina Regional that could get ugly
Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores have enough talent to play with anyone in the country. Tempe should be one of the most entertaining Regionals this year

Memorial Day Linkage

* Fox Sports has a good read up about the rivalry between Stafford and Tebow – who not surprisingly are the only SEC QBs listed in Rivals top 25 QBs in the country. You can argue until you’re blue in the face about which one is better, but the simple fact is each of them is perfect for the system they are in. No way Stafford could operate UF’s spread offense and no way Tebow thrives in a drop back, pro-style offense. Both figure to be in the spotlight all season long and their November 1 showdown – don’t call it a Cocktail Party – will undoubtedly be one of the biggest games of the regular season.

* At least someone’s being honest. Big East commissioner admits it: The BCS is about the almighty dollar, NOT what the fans want.

* I wish the media would leave Ryan Perrilloux alone and just let him disappear into obscurity in Jacksonville, AL. He’s a bad apple who just happens to be a remarkable athletic talent. It became obvious from the circus surrounding his recruitment that all Ryan Perrilloux cared about was Ryan Perrilloux. Now he’s taken the Herschel Walker way out, saying he’s been diagnosed with OCD, thus (apparently) giving him license to act like he did because he was restless. I don’t buy it for a second. Just because he wasn’t playing on gameday as much as Flynn and Russell doesn’t mean he wasn’t actively participating in drills at practice.

* Another testament to the strength of the SEC: 4 coaches rank among Rivals’ Top 10 College Football Coaches

* The good news for the Crimson Tide: Gee is officially coming back. The bad news: So is Mark Gottfried.

* CBS Sportsline rated the Hot Seat for all 120+ coaches in D1 football. By his estimation, the SEC coach on the hottest seat is Vandy’s Bobby Johnson. Vandy’s in for a rough season this year with so many key losses, but Johnson has had Vandy consistently competitive the last few seasons, which is more than previous coaches can say.

USC’s Spurrier is on the 2nd hottest seat in the conference, which makes more sense. The Gamecocks’ epic collapse last season was due in large part to key defensive injuries, but the USC brass didn’t bring Spurrier in to go to middling bowls. I don’t think they’d actually fire Spurrier, but I doubt that they’re especially pleased with the results he’s delivered so far in his tenure. If Stephen Garcia continues to run amok though, it will be interesting to see how the USC fans react if the Gamecocks finish 6-6 this season.

* Droopy-looking Pete Fiutak takes a crack at predicting all the bowls, including the BCS games for next season. So go ahead and book your hotel rooms.

* Thanks to anonymous reader for this one... NEPatriotsdraft.com lists 7 guys from the SEC as "Players to Watch" for the 2009 NFL Draft. No real surprises as it's Florida's Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Brandon Spikes, Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, Ole Miss' Michael Oher and LSU's Tyson Jackson.

* And for those of you into YouTube and pop culture phenomena, take a gander at Weezer's new video for "Pork and Beans"

Links for a Friday

I've been out of the Blogosphere for a while, but I've still come across some interesting reads while on the road with work and family...

* Rivals has a look at the upcoming rules changes for the 2008-09 college basketball season, including emphasis on palming and illegal screening

* Former Baylor head basketball coach Dave Bliss is one of the biggest scumbags on the planet. How this asshat is not in jail for what he did at Baylor is beyond me. It is tragic that he is allowed anywhere near a basketball court. It is despicable that Athletes in Action would even consider hiring this guy. What a disgrace.

* ESPN's got a variety of interesting football reads up here and here and here and here.

In the first one, Mark Schlabach takes a look at the 25 biggest stories to come out of the Spring. Not surprisingly, 7 relate to SEC teams (The dismissals of Ryan "McLovin'" Perriloux and Michael "Big Gun" Brown, Ryan Mallet not being allowed to be destroyed by SEC defenses until next season, Chris Rainey's emergence at Florida, Jevan Snead's emergence at Ole Miss, and Stephen "How 'Bout Another One?" Garcia's continued run-ins with the Columbia PD) as well as former SEC QB (and precious snowflake) Mitch Mustain not winning the starting job at USC. The countdown is on until Beck Campbell makes a fool of herself again.

In the other 3, they break down the SEC by team by division, but offer no predictions on final standings.

* Meanwhile, Mike Organ at the Shreveport Times does predict final standings. While there's no big shockers in the way of final placement of the teams, he does predict 6-6 records for both Vandy and Kentucky. With what each team lost, there is no way either of those teams finish with more than 2 wins in conference. 6-6 would be nothing short of a miracle and would put either Bobby Johnson or Rich Brooks in the lead for SEC Coach of the Year. The 'Dores and the 'Cats will be fortunate to win 10 games between them.

Top 5 Players at each Position

While rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated, I have been absent for a while. And with a trip to Wrigley Field in the works for this weekend, I figured now was as good a time as any to get back into the Blogosphere.

Anyway, I stumbled across this piece on MSNBC, in which Matt Hayes ranks the SEC's Top 5 football players by position. He makes some interesting and obvious choices throughout, but it's definitely worth the read.

One of the most telling things about the SEC this year may be the lack of quality QBs in the league this year. Hayes ranks them:
Quarterback
1. Tim Tebow, Florida
2. Matthew Stafford, Georgia
3. John Parker Wilson, Alabama
4. Casey Dick, Arkansas
5. Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee

Dick's numbers should improve in Petrino's gimmick offense, but is he really a top 5 QB in the league? And with DJ Hall gone now, is JPW really a threat at all? Crompton threw for 97 yards last year - 49 on one play - and had a 1/2 TD/INT ratio. Ole Miss' Jevan Snead and whoever wins the starting job in Baton Rouge also stand as good a chance as anyone to end up on the postseason Top 5 SEC QB list.

Another interesting comment made is about the kickers. He lists AU kicker Wes Byrum as one of the top 5 in the SEC, but then says he wouldn't want any SEC kicker in with the game on the line. The Gators might disagree with that one...