SEC Championship Game Preview

Saturday
(#1, #1)Alabama (12-0, 8-0) vs. (#2, #3)Florida (11-1, 7-1)
SEC Championship Game
3:00 PM CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 21-13
Thursday’s Line: Florida -10

While there’s no doubt the SEC is not as strong as a whole this year as in 2007, it’s hard not appreciate the significance of this weekend’s SEC Championship game. Florida was expected by most to make it. Alabama was expected by most to be a year or two away. And now the two clash in Atlanta for the right to call themselves SEC Champions.

These two schools are no strangers to each other in this environment. This is the 6th time in the 17 years of the SEC Championship game that these programs have faced off. Alabama won the inaugural SEC title game in 1992, followed by the Gators winning the next two in 1993 and 1994. The Gators also beat Alabama in 1996 before the Tide rolled in 1999. Alabama has never played another opponent besides the Gators in the title game. Meanwhile, the Gators are back in Atlanta for the 9th time and sport a 6-2 record there.

While statistics certainly don’t always tell the whole story, you can get a feel for how a team operates. When you run down the numbers on both sides of the ball for these two schools, it’s easy to see why they’re here. See the chart below. (conference ranks in parentheses)
We all knew the Gators would be close to unstoppable offensively. Tebow has played himself back into Heisman contention and even with a (perpetually) gimpy Percy Harvin, there are few offense in the country that put up yards and points like the Gators. And while the general consensus was that the Gators would be better on D, I don’t know that many saw this sort of a turnaround. Sure they’ve inflated some numbers playing in a weakened SEC, but the turnaround is remarkable.

The same could be said for Alabama’s offense. Last year, the Tide struggled to put points up consistently. This year, the Tide generated as many points per game as a Georgia offense led by future NFLers at QB and RB. Saban is known for his defensive scheming, so it’s not surprise to see gaudy numbers there, but the importance of a consistent offense cannot be understated.

As for the game itself, Alabama actually matches up as well as a team can with the Gator offense. In the lone Florida loss this year, the Gators struggled against an aggressive and dominant Ole Miss front four. The Rebels held the Gators to 124 rushing yards. Only Miami(FL) did better against the UF ground game, but offensive inconsistencies took the ‘Canes out of that game early. The Tide will stack the box with 8-9 guys and force Tebow to beat them with his arm.

Offensively, the Tide will pound the ball on the ground with a slew of hard-hitting backs and take their shots downfield when the opportunities are there. Other than freshmen WR Julio Jones, no one really stands out on this offensive unit, and Jones hasn’t scored a TD since September. That said, as evidenced by the season-long production, while they may now “wow”, they’ll certainly rear back and knock you over if you’re not ready.

The Tide enters this game with a very solid +9 turnover margin. The Gators are at ridiculous +21. Only twice have they lost the turnover margin in a game – Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. If the Tide want to win this one, they’ll need to turn the Gators over and give themselves short fields to work with.

When it’s all said and done, the Gators will win this game. And they will cover the 10 points. What they won’t do is run Alabama out of the Georgia Dome like they’ve done their last 8 opponents. The Tide is too tough defensively, particularly up front to let that happen. Florida wins 38-24.

Week 14 Picks

As Mrs. Dead Guy has decreed that the overly large family celebration of Turkey Day be held here in our humble abode, picks are brief this week as my time not cleaning, cooking, and raking is limited.

Friday
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -16

After a win like last week's in Baton Rouge, common thought would be the Rebels are due for a let down. Even with an improved offense behind QB Tyson Lee, they just don't have enough firepower to play 60 minutes with the Rebs. The "Golden Egg" goes back to Oxford.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

LSU @ Arkansas
Wednesday's Line: LSU -4.5

LSU was manhandled by the Rebels' defensive line last week and RB Charles Scott was held to just 10 yds. They won't have those same problems against the Hogs' porous D, which surrenders 4.5 ypc and 170+ ypg. Regardless of who starts at QB, LSU wins this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Saturday
Georgia Tech @ Georgia
Wednesday's Line: Georgia -8

Both teams feature strong rushing attacks and strong rush defenses. But only one team features a real QB and a 7-game winning streak in this series. And they're playing Between the Hedges. Georgia all the way.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

South Carolina @ Clemson
Wednesday's Line: Pick 'Em

Unlike the UGA/GTU series, this series is swung much in the favor of the in-state rival from the ACC. Neither team has lived up to expectations this season, but Clemson seems to have rallied around interim HC Dabo Swinney. South Carolina meanwhile can't make up its mind on a QB and is coming off a 50-point throttling. While this one will be much closer, Clemson pulls it out.

Straight Up Winner: Clemson
Against the Spread: Clemson

Auburn @ Alabama
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -14

Obviously, the biggest storyline here is "Can Auburn lock up an Independence Bowl bid with a win?"... or not. Tide fans have had this date circled all season as the chance to end 6 years of frustration. The Tigers will - as always - fight valiantly to the end, but their offensive woes will do them in as running against Bama's front 7 will be next to impossible. The Tide rolls.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Florida @ Florida State
Wednesday's Line: Florida -16.5

The Criminoles have experienced something of a resurgence this year and enter the game ranked in the Top 20. While they're certainly improved, there's no real advantage they have in this game except for the fact it's in Tallahassee. The Gators are too focused and crisp right now to drop this one to their arch-rivals.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida State

Kentucky @ Tennessee
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -4.5

A few weeks ago, I was convinced the Vols would suck it up and play like a decent team the last 3 games of the season and fall ass-backwards into a Liberty Bowl bid. In the first of those 2 games, they've played as bad or worse offensively as they have all season. Unfortunately for UK, it was 1984 the last time the 'Cats beat the Vols. Neither team is very good offensively, but I'll give the edge to UT at home in Fulmer's swan song as the Battle Captain.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest
Wednesday's Line: Wake Forest -4

The Deacons play too sound to play into VU's hands. They manage the clock well and don't turn it over, both things that have frustrated the 'Dores all season. While Vandy is a great story to become bowl eligible this year, WFU has been there/done that and that experience will show in this game.

Straight Up Winner: Wake Forest
Against the Spread: Wake Forest

Week 13 Picks

Saturday
Tennessee (3-7, 1-5) @ Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-3)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Tennessee 69-28-5
Wednesday’s Line: Vanderbilt -3

This is a game the Vols have almost always penciled in as a win before the season. Fulmer is 14-1 against Vanderbilt in his career at UT and has never lost in Nashville. Overall, UT is 24-1 against the ‘Dores over the last quarter century, but did lose in 2005, the last time UT missed a bowl game.

It’s a different season though. Vanderbilt is actually favored over Tennessee. It’s the Vols who will be home for the holidays watching the ‘Dores play in a bowl game. The fans watching this game won’t see much offense. Neither team can move the ball - UT is 11th (267.1 ypg) and VU is 12th (266.9 ypg) in the SEC in total offense and neither score much either – Vandy is 8th (21.3) and UT is 11th (16.0).

My gut is – for some reason – telling me that UT pulls this one out somehow. I have determined – much like John Cusack in High Fidelity – that my gut has $#*+ for brains. The Vols looked horrible against an awful Wyoming team. While this Vanderbilt team is certainly not a world-beater, now that the pressure of picking up that elusive 6th win is gone, football will be fun again. And what could be more fun for the Commodores than to knock off Tennessee?

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: Vanderbilt

The Citadel (4-7) @ (#3, #3)Florida (9-1, 7-1)
12: 30 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Florida 13-0
Wednesday’s Line: N/A

Bleh. With the rhythm that the Gator offense is in, this game is not a good time for UF. It won’t be competitive at all, obviously, but with the starters getting so much rest, it may be a closer score than the 56-6 last week.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: N/A

Arkansas (4-6, 1-5) @ Mississippi State (3-7, 1-5)
1:30 CDT
All-Time Series: Arkansas 12-5-1
Wednesday’s Line: Pick’ Em

Who wants to be last in the SEC West? Please take a giant step backwards. Both of these teams have fallen off since last season, but only the Hogs seem to have a hope for the future. This has never been an easy matchup for the Bulldogs and Arkansas is 12-1 the last 13 seasons, including a current 9-game win streak with 4 straight wins in Starkville.

This will probably come down to turnovers. MSU committed 5 last year and lost 45-31 despite dominating the Hogs offensively. This year, even against the Hogs’ porous D (12th in the SEC), the Bulldogs will have trouble moving the ball. On the flip side, the Hogs offense has steadily improved this season, while MSU’s D has been inconsistent against conference opponents.

The Hogs had the weekend off last week to rest up and get healthy. They’re still clinging to an outside shot at a bowl game and can carry that hope one step further with another conference road win. Look for the Hogs to control the game on both sides of the ball and get a much needed win.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Ole Miss (6-4, 3-3) @ (#18, #18)LSU (7-3, 3-3)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: LSU 55-37-4
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -4.5

The Inaugural “Magnolia Bowl” takes place this weekend, as the two schools’ student governments have named this rivalry. Not sure what Magnolias have to do with LSU, but I digress. While these games are (typically) competitive, LSU has won 6 in a row in Baton Rouge and hold a 36-24-1 record there all-time against Ole Miss.

It will be strength on strength when LSU lines up on offense. LSU’s Charles Scott is one of the best RBs in the country, but the Rebels’ D-line has been great against the run all season, particularly of late. The Rebels’ secondary is there for the taking (225.2 ypg, 12th in conference), but can LSU count on Lee to make the right throws, or even to not throw a touchdown to an OM DB?

Last week, LSU fell asleep for 2.5 quarters before launching an unbelievable comeback. Ole Miss dominated hapless UL-Monroe from the opening kickoff. The winner of this game has the inside track to a 2nd place finish in the SEC West and possibly the Cotton Bowl, unless swirling rumors about Notre Dame come to fruition, in which the case the SEC should pull out of the Cotton Bowl and find another place to send their fans besides that dump… again I digress.

I’ve gotta go with the hot hand right now. LSU is deservedly a small favorite in this game, but Ole Miss is playing better football. Houston Nutt won in Baton Rouge last year when LSU won the BCS Championship game. This LSU team has been blown out by teams with explosive offenses this season – UF and UGA – and lost a heartbreaker to Alabama. Look for the Rebels to stack up the middle and focus on Charles Scott, all but daring Lee to make a throw down the field. In the end, too many TOs from LSU and the Rebels win the first Magnolia Bowl.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Week 12 Picks

Saturday
(#13,#12)Georgia (8-2, 5-2) @ Auburn (5-5, 2-4)
11: 30 CST, Raycom
All-Time Series: Auburn 53-50-8
Wednesday's Line: Georgia – 8.5

It's the South's oldest rivalry and one of the best. Through 111 games, Auburn has outscored Georgia by a mere 45 points. It's the 18th straight time that one or both schools have been ranked when the game was played and – surprisingly – the lower ranked or unranked squad has won 7 of the last 12 years. Georgia has won consecutive blowout games.

The Tigers paltry O struggled again last week against Tennessee-Martin until Kodi Burns realized he was faster than everyone else out there and ran wild. As bad as the 'Dawgs D has been the last 3 weeks, no way they lose containment on Burns as consistently as the Skyhawks did. In the SEC, only Arkansas has allowed more TDs than Georgia has this year. On the flip side of that, only MSU and UT have scored fewer TDs than Auburn.

Despite all of Auburn's troubles this year, this is not going to be an easy game for the 'Dawgs. Tuberville is at his best when his back is against the wall, though this year, the talent differential between the two schools is deep a chasm to void. If Georgia's big 3 show up to play, the Tigers just don't have the firepower to keep up. Look for an inspired effort by the Tigers early, but too much Stafford and Moreno in the second half. 'Dawgs by 10.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Louisiana-Monroe (3-7) @ Ole Miss (5-4, 3-3)
1:00 CST
All-Time Series: Ole Miss 2-0
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -21

Ole Miss looks to become bowl-eligible this weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. The rebels are the 3rd SEC West the ULM Warhawks will have played this year, having dropped a 34-0 game to Auburn in the season opener and basically choking away a 28-27 game the next week to Arkansas. Ole Miss has outscored ULM 80-17 in the 2 previous meetings.

Assuming the Rebels learned from Alabama's overlooking of ULM last year, this one won't be close. The Rebels have too much firepower on offense to stumble here. Even if the turnover bug comes back, they should have enough to get the win. The Grove will be rocking as the Rebels clinch a postseason berth for the first time since Archie's youngest graduated in 2003, but no way I'm giving up 3 TDs to a team as schitzo as Ole Miss.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Louisiana-Monroe

(#24,#23)South Carolina (7-3, 4-3) @ (#4,#3)Florida (8-1, 6-1)
2:30 CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 21-4-3
Wednesday's Line: Florida -21

The Ole Ball Coach heads back to his old stomping grounds Saturday as the red hot Gamecocks take on the even hotter Gators. The Gamecocks have bounced back from a rocky start to put themselves in a position for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Gators have bounced back from a loss at home to Ole Miss and are playing perhaps the nest football in the entire country.

This will be the sternest test the Gators will have faced since their loss to Ole Miss. While Georgia came out and laid an egg in Jacksonville, Spurrier will make sure that doesn't happen here. A win in the Swamp, and his Gamecocks would like take the Capital One Bowl bid away from Georgia. Unfortunately for him, that just won't happen this weekend. Tebows apology and proclamations were internet fodder for many a joke, but he and the Gators have backed them up with their recent stellar play. The Gators win this on, but 3 TDs is too much.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Mississippi State (3-6, 1-4) @ (#1, #1)Alabama (10-0, 6-0)
6:45 CST, ESPN
All-Time Series: Alabama 71-18-3
Wednesday's Line: Alabama –20.5

Though Alabama has owned this series through the years, they've dropped two in a row to the Bulldogs. Even more remarkable is the fact that it's been 3 seasons since Alabama scored an offensive TD against the Bulldogs. Over the last 3 years, the Tide has managed 8 FGs and 3 defensive TDs against MSU and are 1-2.

John Parker Wilson has single-handedly choked this game away the last two seasons. He's a combined 35/73 (48%) for just 308 yds with 0 TDs and 4 INTs. While you never know what you're going to get from JPW, this Tide team has been too steady and consistent all season long to drop a game like this to a team like Mississippi State. Sure it's a fun story that's been beaten into the ground that for 2 straight years, Croom has beaten his alma mater who wouldn't hire him, but that will long forgotten on Saturday.

Frankly, unless JPW throws the ball directly to Pegues or any other of MSU's defenders, I don't know how the Bulldogs are going to score in this game. Alabama will do what they do and MSU won't be able to stop them or to score on them. The only question will be if the Tide will stay focused long enough to cover 3 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Troy (6-3) @ (#19, #20)LSU (6-3, 3-3)
7:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: LSU 1-0
Wednesday's Line: LSU – 18.5

This is the Hurricane Gustav make-up game from earlier in the season. It's just the 2nd meeting between these schools and LSU had to rally very late to eke by Troy 24-20 in 2004. The Tigers are 32-0 against Sun Belt teams.

This won't be close. It's a night game at Tiger Stadium and Troy is not one of the 3 best teams in the SEC, which are the only teams the Tigers have fallen to. There will be some emotional hangover from last week's disappointment, but it won't last long. Troy is a very good offensive team and – if taken lightly – will pose a real threat for an upset. With a big conference game next week against Ole Miss, this is a definite trap game situation, but no way the Tigers drop this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Troy

Vanderbilt (5-4, 2-4) @ Kentucky (6-4, 2-4)
7:00 CST, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Kentucky 39-37-4
Wednesday's Line: Kentucky -4

While it doesn't have the marquee schools or the star power of the other games this weekend, this is the most important game of the weekend in terms of conference standings. It's been a close series throughout its history with 33 of the 80 games (41%) decided by a TD or less.

Kentucky has found new life on offense since inserting stud freshman Randall Cobb in as starting QB. They knocked off MSU on the road (which Vanderbilt failed to do) and went toe-to-toe with UGA for 58 minutes before falling on one of the plays of the year in college football. Meanwhile, Vandy is headed in the opposite direction, dropping 4 straight. The Commodores haven't scored more than 14 points in 5 straight games.

The 'Cats have been playing most superior opponents close, dropping close ones to UGA, South Carolina, and Alabama. They're also winning the games they're supposed to, and this game qualifies in that category. The 'Cats will continue to play smart on offense and the defense - though it's struggled a bit lately - will find that Vandy's anemic offense is just the cure for its ails.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

Week 11 Picks

(#14,#14)Georgia (7-2, 4-2) @ Kentucky (6-3, 2-3)
11:30 CST, Raycom
All-Time Series: Georgia 48-11-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -11

Georgia gets its chance to lick its wounds against a Kentucky team that earned bowl-eligibility last weekend in Starkville. While UGA has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two schools, UK prevailed in 2006, the last meeting in Lexington. The Bulldogs are 24-3 against Kentucky when ranked.

Polar opposite weekends for these two schools last week as Georgia was blitzed in Jacksonville while the ‘Cats wrapped up a bowl bid with an upset in Starkville. UK switched to something of a 2-QB look last week alternating sophomore Mike Hartline and freshman Randall Cobb. Their numbers weren’t overwhelming – 16/29 for 156 yds and 1/1 – but it (coupled with a blocked extra point) were enough for the win.

For the ‘Dawgs, things were bad at halftime. Down 14-3, things hadn’t gone UGA’s way. Then the third quarter happened, and all the national title dreams evaporated. That said, the defense should handle Kentucky well. The combination of Hartline and Cobb won’t be enough to exploit a UGA secondary that has given more passing yds than any conference team except Ole Miss. On the flip side, only Alabama has given up fewer rushing yds than UGA has.

This will be one of UGA’s best efforts of the season. Under Richt, unfocused games like last week have become commonplace, but rarely if ever on back to back weeks. Richt has been incredible on the road in conference and UGA is too talented and now too desperate for a win to let an injury-depleted ‘Cats team stand in their way of a win.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Arkansas (4-5, 1-4) @ South Carolina (6-3, 3-3)
12:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: Arkansas 10-6
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -11

Hard to believe it’s been 17 seasons since South Carolina and Arkansas joined the conference. Arkansas has won 2 in a row in this series and 3 of the last 4 have been decided by 6 points or less, the exception being the Hogs’ 48-36 victory last season.

Including last week’s win over UT, South Carolina is a meager 6-16 in November over the last 6 seasons, highlighted by last season’s epic collapse. This is seemingly a different Gamecocks team, as they’re playing fairly well heading into the latter part of the season. They’ll be facing an Arkansas team that has also matured and improved throughout the course of the season and one that is desperate for a win.

The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country in total D, giving up just 250.7 ypg. Where they have struggled at times is offensively, putting up just 330.4 ypg, good for 86th in the nation. They’ve had just 255 and 254 yds the last 2 games against LSU and Tennessee. The major problems have coming running the ball where South Carolina ranks 106th nationwide.

It’ll be a battle of weaknesses as the Hogs’ sport the conference’s worst run defense, allowing 170 ypg and a 5.6 ypc average. Though Arkansas forced enough turnovers to knock off Tulsa last week, the Golden Hurricane still ran up 528 yds against the Hogs. While South Carolina won’t approach those numbers, they will find some momentum in the running game and be able to run a much more balanced attack.

South Carolina can’t sleep on this one. Arkansas needs this for a real shot at bowl eligibility so they’ll be fired up. The Hogs torched the Cocks last year for 650 yds (540 rushing), but that was with McFadden and Jones. This year, the Gamecock defense will be too much for Casey Dick and Michael Smith to overcome. South Carolina wins by 2 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Wyoming (3-6) @ Tennessee (3-6, 1-5)
12:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: Tennessee 2-0
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -27

This is exactly the kind of game the Vols need right now. With all the excitement going on in Knoxville, hosting a team as anemic on offense they are is just what the doctor ordered for the Vols. Currently, the Vols rank 115th in the country on offense with 272.4 ypg. Wyoming sits at 112th with 284.4 ypg. Those numbers are remarkably skewed from their 544 yd outburst last week against San Diego State.

The Volunteer D should have a field day with the Cowboys who have scored a TD or less in 5 games this season. And the offense should finally actually resemble an offense against a lesser opponent. This one won’t be close, but 4 TDs is too much to give anyone against the Vols this year.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Wyoming

Tennessee-Martin (7-2) @ Auburn (4-5, 2-4)
1:30 CST
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: No Line

Not even worth the effort… Auburn rolls. Or at least they win by a couple of TDs. This offense never seems roll.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: N/A

(#1,#1)Alabama (9-0, 5-0) @ (#15,#15) LSU (6-2, 3-2)
2:30 CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 43-23-5
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -3

While the Tide has dominated this series all time, the Tigers have run off 5 straight victories and 7 of 8, including the thrilling 41-34 win last season that started Alabama’s season-ending 4-game losing streak. Alabama is 24-8-2 in Baton Rouge. But none of that matters this weekend in Baton Rouge, not for this game.

As hostile as Arkansas fans were towards Houston Nutt, expect that to pale in comparison to what the LSU fans have in store for Saban. He will not be welcomed back with open arms or remembered for the 48-16 record he posted as LSU’s HC. It will be ugly. My only question is why this game is not at night. No game in recent memory has screamed “NIGHT GAME IN BATON ROUGE” more than this one.

LSU’s offensive strength this season has been pounding the ball on the ground with Charles Scott. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that plays right into the teeth of the Alabama D, which will be welcoming Mt. Cody back in the middle. The Tide have given up just 590 rush yds this year (67 ypg), a 2.9 ypc average, and just 1 rushing touchdown.

The Tide has also controlled the line of scrimmage on offense all season, leading the SEC in rushing offense as well with 1848 yds (205 ypg). They lead the conference with a 5.04 ypc average and their 22 rush TDs are 2nd only to Florida’s 23. And while JPW is not an elite QB, he has been steady this season and, most importantly, taking care of the football.

The Tide can punch their ticket to Atlanta with a victory in Baton Rouge. They’ll have success running the ball against a suddenly porous LSU defense and the defense should be able to handle a mistake-prone LSU offense. Look for Alabama to continue to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and feed off the turnovers by a youthful LSU backfield. “2-Loss Les” becomes “3-Loss Les” Saturday afternoon.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

(#4,#5)Florida (7-1, 5-1) @ Vanderbilt (5-3, 3-2)
6:00 CST, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Florida 30-9-2
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -24

Florida has won 17 straight against Vanderbilt. Last year, UF BMF Percy Harvin paced the gators with 100+ yds receiving and 100+ yds rushing, the first Gator to ever pull that off. Let’s be brutally honest here, right now, Florida is playing as well or better than anyone in the country. Vanderbilt isn’t. The pressure to win one more game increases every week in Nashville and it’s not going to happen Saturday. Even an unfocused Gator team will make mincemeat out of this ‘Dores team. Florida rolls.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Week 10 Picks

Saturday
Auburn (4-4, 2-3) @ Ole Miss (4-4, 2-3)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Auburn 24-8
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -6.5

This has been one of the most lopsided SEC West series over the last 15 years as Auburn is 13-2 since 1992. The Tigers are 8-1 in Oxford with their lone loss coming in 1992. But, if ever there was a year for Ole Miss to break the skid, this is it. At least for the time being, these are two programs heading in opposite directions as the Rebel faithful are fired up just to be relevant again while Auburn fans are left scratching their head about this season.

This is not a favorable matchup for Auburn. While Auburn’s offensive woes this season are well documented, here are some numbers to show how bad it’s really gotten: Only Alabama has more rushing attempts than the Tigers, yet Auburn ranks 11th in the SEC in both ypc (3.34) and rush TDs (7). The Rebels, for all their problems in the secondary, have a talented front 7 that has held opponents to a 3.15 ypc average this season, 4th best in conference. And something tells me that the Rebels aren’t exactly quivering at the thought of AU’s QBs.

Meanwhile, the once stout Tiger D has been shredded in recent weeks by WVU (445 yds) and Arkansas (416 yds). The Rebels sport the conference’s 4th best offense (377.6 ypg) and will look to take advantage of a reeling Tiger D. If the Rebels can minimize turnovers like they did last week, they should have a productive day on offense.

This is a pivotal game for those teams for bowl positioning, particularly for Auburn. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they’re just off their game this year. Last weekend, the Rebels beat their head coach’s former team. This week, they’ll knock off their former head coach. Ole Miss wins a close one, notching their first home conference win since November 2006.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Auburn

(#19,#18)Tulsa (8-0) @Arkansas (3-5, 1-4)
1:00 CDT
All-Time Series: Arkansas 52-15-2
Wednesday's Line: Tulsa -7

This hasn’t been a competitive series since the outset and Arkansas has won 16 games in a row. The last Golden Hurricane win came in 1976. The Hogs are 40-5 against Tulsa in Fayetteville, though this is certainly the most explosive TU team the Hogs have faced. After dropping a game to former HC Houston Nutt last week, the Hogs will try to avoid losing to his former OC this week.

They’ll have to stop a ridiculous offense that has torched everyone it’s played this season. In 8 games Tulsa has scored 61 TD (32 passing/26 rushing/3 other), is averaging 55.6 ppg, 601.1 ypg, 8.2 ypp, and leads the nation in scoring and total offense, ranks #5 in passing offense, and 7th in rushing offense. That said, they’ve done it against 7 1A opponents who combine to be 17-39 and a 1AA opponent.

Unquestionably, this will be Tulsa’s biggest test off the season. While Arkansas is certainly not an elite SEC team, they have the size and speed to compete with the gimmick offense that the Golden Hurricane is running. The biggest question will be if the Hogs can get up for this one after the disappointment of last week’s game. They’ll play well, but not enough to pull the upset.

Straight Up Winner: Tulsa
Against the Spread: Tulsa

Kentucky (5-3, 1-3) @ Mississippi State (3-5, 1-3)
1:30 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Kentucky 20-15
Wednesday's Line: Mississippi State -2.5

Last year in Lexington, MSU knocked off a worn-out ‘Cats team fresh off grueling battles with South Carolina, LSU, and Florida, all in the Top 15 when UK played them. MSU forced 6 2nd half TOs last year in the upset. The ‘Cats are 6-9 in Starkville, including 2006’s 34-31 win.

Looking to spark a struggling offense, UK is turning the reins over to Randall (Don’t call him Tex) Cobb, the multi-talented freshmen who caught the two TDs in the final minutes to secure UK’s comeback against Arkansas a few weeks back. The injury situation is worse than a week ago when the already decimated ‘Cats were throttled by UK. To borrow a paragraph from A Sea of Blue:

Micah Johnson has re-injured his sprained ankle and is doubtful. Marcus McClinton's knee is a bit worse, Myron Pyor is still out, Kyrus Lanxter is still down with a knee, Ricky Lumpkin has a strained calf, Justin Jeffries and Maurice Grinter are banged up, as is Josh Minton. Dicky Lyons and Derrick Locke are both still out for the season.

The Bulldogs aren’t exactly world beaters, but this is a good matchup for them. While the insertion of Cobb may jolt a little life back into the offense, it won’t be enough to overcome the injury situation. The Bulldogs got back to running the football last week and had one of their most productive offensive days of the season, albeit against a Sun Belt team. Both UK and MSU rank in the middle of the pack in total defense (though UK’s #s are a bit skewed after the UF game) and towards the back of the pack in total offense.

By the time this one’s over, there still may not be 20 points on the board. While it won’t set modern football back 50 years like Auburn’s visit to Starkville did, this one won’t be much more entertaining. The ‘Cats feasted on cupcakes early in the season, but have too many injuries at key positions to pull this one off. I’ve suspected all season that this Kentucky team was mediocre. After this week, I think most will have to agree.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Arkansas State (4-3) @ (#2, #2)Alabama (8-0, 5-0)
2:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Alabama 1-0
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -23.5

With all the critical conference games this weekend, hard to spend any time on this one. Alabama is prone to letdowns. It’ll probably happen again this week, though I doubt it’s as severe as the early season versions. This Arkansas State team did knock off Texas A&M team in College Station in the season opener, but they suck. Alabama doesn’t. No reason for this one to even be a contest. Alabama improves to 17-1 against Sun Belt teams with a big Homecoming win.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Arkansas State

(#8,#8)Georgia (7-1, 4-1) vs (#5,#7)Florida (6-1, 4-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 47-37-2
Wednesday's Line: Florida -5.5

The World's Largest Don't Call it a Cocktail Party returns to Jacksonville for the 74th time this weekend. It sports 2 top 10 teams for just the 5th time in series history. While UGA won last year, that was the exception to recent rule, as the Gators are 15-3 over the last 18 years against the 'Dawgs.

This game basically serves as an SEC East Championship game and a national title elimination game. Both teams are still in the hunt for a BCS Title game berth, but a loss would knock them out. The teams rank #1 and #2 in the conference in scoring (UF 42.0ppg, UGA 34.3 ppg). The big difference comes on the defensive side of the ball where Florida again leads the conference (11.9 ppg) while UGA checks in at #8 (20.3 ppg).

There should be plenty of fireworks in this one. Florida is cruising right now and UGA QB Stafford played one of his best games of the season last week on the road against LSU. The Gators' run D gives up just 3.36 ypc, so it will be interesting to see if Moreno can find space to run. There's little reason to believe he won't have a good day, but if the Gators can limit his big plays they'll win the overall battle.

I'm not one who believes that TCTUMWNF* had much to do with UGA's win last year. The Gators were rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball and Tebow was not 100% in that game and the 'Dawgs were the best team in the nation over the last several games last season. Those are similar reasons to why Florida wins this year. The Gators are peaking having outscored opponents 152-33 since their slip up against Ole Miss. Meanwhile, the 'Dawgs have done a remarkable job with basically a makeshift offensive line and have other costly injuries at key positions. Look for the Gators to assume control of the East with a close victory in Jacksonville.
*the Celebration that Urban Meyer Will Never Forget

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Tennessee (3-5, 1-4) @ South Carolina (5-3, 2-3)
6:00 CDT, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Tennessee 21-3-2
Wednesday's Line: South Carolina -5.5

Like Kentucky, South Carolina has basically been penciled in as a “win” every season for Volunteer fans. Phil Fulmer is 14-1 as a HC against SC, losing only in 2005 in Knoxville. Fulmer improved to 5-8 all-time against Spurrier. The Gamecocks dominated the game statistically last season but 4 TOs and poor special teams play cost them a 27-24 OT loss.

Much like the Auburn/Ole Miss game, if South Carolina doesn’t get it done this weekend, when will they? The Vols are reeling while the Gamecocks are playing better, despite the heartbreaking loss to LSU. SC QB Garcia has rejuvenated (to a degree) a once stagnant offense, but will have to minimize his mistakes (and cockiness) against a stout Vols’ D, which gives up less than 280 ypg and is anchored by all-world DB Eric Berry.

This is going to be a tougher matchup than Gamecock fans want. USC has not been able to run the ball on anyone this year – 100 ypg, 4 TDS – and the Vols D gives up just 101 ypg on the ground. The Vols also have given up just 5 passing TDs while picking off 14 passes, a handful of which have been returned for TDs. With the Gamecocks’ propensity to give up the ball - nation’s worst 23 turnovers! – ball control will be mandatory. If the Gamecocks force the Vols to drive the length of the field for points, they’ll be in good shape.

The Gamecocks lead the SEC in total defense (256.1 ypg) and rank 4th nationally. The Vols offense has been bad all season, so don’t expect any kind of a breakout game here. This should be a good, old fashioned, hard-hitting SEC game, with the winner being determined by whose QB makes the fewest mistakes.

The Vols will be desperate for a win here, but the Gamecocks will be ready. This is a huge game for them as a loss will actually drop them below the Vols in the conference standings. Spurrier will have a smart, simplistic game plan for Garcia to take advantage of his mobility and will get back to terrorizing his old punching bag the Great Punkin. South Carolina wins a close one.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Tulane (2-5) @ (#15,#15)LSU (5-2, 3-2)
7:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: LSU 67-22-7
Wednesday's Line: LSU -24.5

LSU squares off with Tulane for the 3rd straight year this weekend in another one of those “Oh, really? Who cares?” games. LSU has outscored the Green Wave 83-16 the last 2 years and this one will probably be just as ugly. Tulane hasn’t beaten LSU since 1982. Last year’s game was close for a half. This year’s won’t be as the Tigers use this as a rebound game before the showdown with Saban and the Tide.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Week 9 Picks

Thursday
Auburn (4-3, 2-3) @ West Virginia (4-2)
6:30 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday's Line: West Virginia -2.5

This is probably not exactly what ESPN had in mind when it picked this game up. Both of these teams ranked in the preseason Top 10 in the AP poll, now both of them are struggling for an identity. WVU hired their version of Larry Coker in the offseason and Auburn… well, they’ve had some coaching issues too. Working in Auburn’s favor is their 6-1 record all time on Thursday night, they’re 18-5 in road/neutral games since 2004, and the fact that DC Paul Rhoads is familiar with WVU’s offense from his days at Pitt.

The Mountaineers actually enter the game on a 3-game win streak, but the wins have been at home over 3 teams who combine to be 6-15. The Mountaineers rank in the middle of the pack in the Big East in total offense and defense, but do average 220+ yds on the ground. Auburn gives up less than 110 per game, so that’s the point of emphasis this week for the Tigers.

Games like these have become Tuberville’s forte. He backs himself into a corner, goes on the road as an underdog, and next thing you know, Wes Byrum is running around going the Gator Chop. As poorly as AU has played offensively the last 3 games, you’ve got figure there’s nowhere to go but up. Look for Auburn to get back to running the football first, throwing second. The Mountaineers have beaten an SEC team in 3 straight years, but it won’t happen this weekend. A win in Morgantown would go a long way in silencing the loud rumblings on the Plains. And few are better than Tuberville at that.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Saturday
Kentucky (5-2, 1-2) @ (#10, #5)Florida (5-1, 3-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Florida 40-17
Wednesday's Line: Florida -24.5

Besides self-righteous Irish fans, no one hated Navy’s victory over Notre Dame last year more than the Big Blue. Now that ND’s 44-game win streak over Navy is no more, Kentucky is now on the butt end of the 2-longest losing streaks, having not beaten Tennessee or Florida since the Reagan administration.

The $64,000 question is whether Florida rediscovered itself in the romp over LSU in the Swamp or they merely caught LSU on an off night. The Gators offense had looked like a shell of its 2007 self before blasting the Tigers 2 weeks ago. The ‘Cats offense woke up in the final 5 minutes of their rally over Arkansas, but now they’re without starting RB Locke for the rest of the season. This year’s Kentucky team would have problems scoring on last year’s Florida team.

This one will be ugly. No two ways about it. Florida is 25-7 vs UK in Gainesville and the ‘Cats haven’t won there since 1979. While the Gators are just 1-3 the week before the WLOCP the last 4 years, but the “1” was last year’s victory over a ranked, healthy UK team. Kentucky is neither this year and this is going to get out of hand early. While the line is bigger than I’d like, Meyer’s never been one to call off the dogs, so you gotta lay the points.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Dook (3-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-2, 3-2)
2:00 CDT
All-Time Series: Vanderbilt 7-3
Wednesday's Line: Vanderbilt -10.5

While certainly not the most exciting game of the weekend, it could turn out to be the “best” game. These are two evenly matched teams, despite the discrepancy in records. Vanderbilt has come back to earth after a remarkable start. For all their struggles in the mighty SEC, the ‘Dores have fared significantly better against the little boys from the ACC, posting a 7-3 record over the last 10 years.

This is a tricky game for Vanderbilt. The Dookies take good care of the ball – just 7 turnovers all season – and punt the ball fairly well. Both those mean Vanderbilt may have to drive the length of the field to score which has not been their calling card this year, though they showed a little life offensively with Adams at QB. They’ll be tested in this one, but the ’Dores will come out on top.

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: Dook

(#7, #9)Georgia (6-1, 3-1) @ (#13, #11)LSU (5-1, 3-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: LSU 14-11-1
Wednesday's Line: LSU -2

This should be one of the best games in conference all season. Two BCS Bowl winners from last season square off in a crucial interdivision game that makes a division title a real unlikelihood for the loser. Both teams rank in the top 3 in the conference in total offense (UGA #1, LSU#3), though UGA ranks 3rd in total D while the Tigers rank 9th.

The key matchup in this game will be the pressure either team gets on the others QB. Georgia ranks 8th in conference in sacks while LSU leads the conference in fewest sack surrendered. On the flip side, LSU is 3rd in the conference in sacks and UGA is 3rd in fewest given up. QB Jarrett Lee proved last week he could make some key throws in a hostile environment against a better defense. He could have a real breakout game in this one.

When this one is all said and done, UGA’s injuries and subsequent inexperience will be their undoing. While most of the stats point to the ‘Dawgs winning this one, until I see them play a complete game, I’m not going to call for one to magically appear in Death Valley. Georgia is a better team than LSU is and Mark Richt has been masterful on the road in the SEC. I’m going against my better judgment and saying that LSU wins this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Ole Miss (3-4, 1-3) @ Arkansas (3-4, 1-3)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Either Arkansas 29-24-1 or 30-23-1
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -5

How is this one not on TV, besides PPV? Really and truly, I thought this was a shoe-in to be on somewhere. With the Right Reverend Nutt’s return to Fayetteville, there’s no telling what to expect from Hogs’ fans. Messy divorcees shouldn’t cross paths so soon after the split.

This is another one of those games that – on paper – shouldn’t be all that close. The Hogs rank behind the Rebels in both total offense and total defense. There’s a good chance the offense will be without the SEC’s leading rusher in Michael Smith who remains day-to-day after sustaining a concussion in the Kentucky game last week. Once he left the game, the Hogs managed just 11 yds on their final 13 plays from scrimmage.

The Rebels’ main weaknesses are turnovers and pass defense. Fortunately for OM, the Hogs struggle with turnovers as well. Unfortunately for the Rebels, Arkansas ranks 3rd in conference in passing yds per game. If Smith doesn’t play, the Rebs will be able to drop more men into coverage, making life difficult for Dick. Even if Smith does play, it shouldn’t matter. Look for the Rebs’ most complete game since their win in Gainesville.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

MTSU (2-5) @ Mississippi State (2-5, 1-3)
6:00 CDT, ESPNU
All-Time Series: Mississippi State 2-0
Wednesday's Line: Mississippi State -10

This is one of those games that would actually make sense to not be on TV because honestly, who wants to watch this? I doubt many Bulldog fans are stoked about a trip to Starkville to watch this game.

MSU has scored 101 pts in the two previous meetings, but will be hard pressed to get to 14 this game. The MTSU defense isn’t exactly stout, but MSU’s offense is putrid at best. Look for the Blue Raiders to spring the upset Saturday and Woody McCorvey to be relieved of his duties sometime next week.

Straight Up Winner: Middle Tennessee State
Against the Spread: Middle Tennessee State

(#2, #2)Alabama (7-0, 4-0) @ Tennessee (3-4, 1-3)
6:45 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: Alabama 45-38-7
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -6.5

Another classic SEC matchup Saturday night in Knoxville as the Crimson Tide rolls into town. Alabama stomped UT 41-17 last year in Tuscaloosa, but hasn’t won back to back games in this series since 1991-92. Alabama has dropped its last two games in Knoxville buy a total of 7 points. Last year’s romp was the exception to the rule as 4 of the last 5 have been decided by 8 pts or less.

It will be interesting to see how the Alabama D performs for a whole game without Cody in the middle. Fortunately for them, the UT offense has been bad all season, so they should be fine. The bigger question is how the Tide O will perform against the UT D, which will be the best they’ve faced this year. JPW threw two of the prettiest deep balls of his life last weekend against Ole Miss, but also chucked some head-scratchers. Any lame ducks thrown against UT will be picked off by Eric Berry and run back the other way for 6. Assuming Eric Berry is on Julio Jones, that could be one of the most entertaining individual matchups of the weekend.

A line this small for teams with this much discrepancy in their season accomplishments tells you that Vegas knows something’s up with this game. They don’t know how the D will look without Cody, they don’t know if the Tide can put together two halves. Something tells me that Saban finally got through to his players and Alabama plays a complete game Saturday night. It’ll be a hard fought, low scoring game, but the Vols just don’t have it this year.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Week 8 Picks

Saturday
(#22,#23)Vanderbilt (5-1, 3-1) @ (#10, #9)Georgia (5-1, 2-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Georgia 48-18-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -15

Though the all-time series is lopsided, this has been a very close game the last two seasons. The Commodores won the last they played in Athens and then choked the game away last year in Nashville. The furious comeback/late FG by UGA built some real momentum though, as UGA is 11-1 since.

On paper this game shouldn’t be close. Georgia leads the SEC in total offense – 430.3 ypg – and VU ranks 10th in total defense – 318. ypg. The ‘Dores also sport the worst offense in the conference – 250.2 ypg – while the ‘Dawgs will trot out the 4th best defense (statistically speaking), giving up just 273.8 ypg. If you watched the game against UT last week, you saw UGA finally show some toughness in the trenches and really neutralize a good Vols OL & DL.

Knowshown Moreno is actually taking a little bit of flack for not living up to preseason expectations, but this will be his breakout game. The Vandy D is tied for the conference lead with 11 INTs, but has had trouble stopping the run all season. As long as Stafford plays smart, The ‘Dawgs will have no problems in this one. Look for Moreno to go for 150+ and a couple of TDS to boot.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Ole Miss (3-3, 1-2) @ (#2, #2)Alabama (6-0, 3-0)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 44-9-2
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -13

Like the VU/UGA series, this one is equally as lopsided, but has been very close lately, though Alabama has won the last 4 games. The last 3 have been decided by 3 points apiece and have not been without their fair share of controversy. At least it led to a catchy ditty.

Both teams are much improved over last season – the Tide is #2 in the country and the Rebs have already matched last season’s win total. Houston Nutt has won the last two road games against top 5 SEC teams he’s faced, having beaten Florida in Gainesville a few weeks back and coaching Arkansas over LSU in last year’s season finale. While I don’t think he has the magic to pull this one out, it could again be closer than Tide fans would want it.

While the Tide are undefeated, they’ve “lost” 5 of the last 6 quarters of football they’ve played. After an absolutely perfect 1st half in Athens, Alabama did little in the second half and then laid an egg for the final 3 quarters of the Kentucky game. If they get up big in the first half, they’ve not shown the knack for staying focused and keeping a big lead.

Bottom line is that this Tide team is too physical and too disciplined to lose to Ole Miss Saturday. Mt. Cody will continue to wreak havoc in the middle and JPW should be able to have some success against a less than stellar OM secondary. The Tide wins, but not by as much as they “should”.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Arkansas (3-3, 1-2) @ Kentucky (4-2, 0-2)
6:00 CDT, ESPNU
All-Time Series: Kentucky 3-2
Wednesday’s Line: Kentucky -9

The last time these two hooked up in Lexington, Arkansas won an epic 71-63, 7OT thriller. They could play this game 3x and not get to that score this year. The road team has won 3 straight in this series.

The Hogs played their best game of the season last week. They rode the SEC’s leading rusher to a shocking upset on the Plains. They’ll find it tough to runt he ball against a UK defense that’s given up just 1 rushing TD this season. On the other side of the ball, the ‘Cats may finally find some offensive consistency against a Hogs D that – up until last week – had been porous.

Arkansas won’t be able to maintain the same level of intensity and execution they had in dismantling Auburn last weekend. UK will be in full-on desperation mode as they want to avoid dropping to 0-3 in conference. Rich Brooks still harbors some animosity towards Petrino from his time at Louisville, so he’ll make sure his UK squad is ready to roll. Look for the ‘Cats to win a good one.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Mississippi State (2-4, 1-2) @ Tennessee (2-4, 0-3)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Tennessee 27-15-1
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -7.5

Like so many other games this year in conference, this one has the potential to be ugly. Both teams sport a strong defense but an impotent offense. Not sure why anyone who’s not a Vol or Bulldog would actually pay money to watch this game on TV. The Vols must win this game to keep their outside chances at a bowl game alive. The Bulldogs would like to carry over some momentum from their victory over Vandy.

The Vols will get it done this weekend in Knoxville. They’ve shown some signs of life with Stephens under center and this will be his 3rd start, so the jitters shouldn’t be a factor. Look for UT to win a low-scoring game, though giving up more than at TD is too much to ask.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

(#13,#14)LSU (4-1, 2-1) @ South Carolina (5-2, 2-2)
7:00 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: LSU 15-2-1
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -3

LSU and South Carolina square off for just the 6th time since 1992 this weekend in Columbia. The Tigers beat the Gamecocks 28-16 last year in Baton Rouge and have dominated the series all time.

As hyped as the LSU defense was before last week’s game, the numbers tell a different story. Florida shredded them for 475 yds, including a 6.5 ypc average. More disturbing is the fact they’ve only forced 4 turnovers all season, a far cry from the 36 they forced last season. With the Gamecocks offense looking good with Stephen Garcia under center last week, the Tigers will be in for another dual-threat QB test.

This will be a different LSU team this week. The Gamecocks are not nearly as explosive as Florida and won’t be able to bury LSU early. The Tigers will ride Charles Scott and their big OL against the Gamecocks’8th in conference rushing D. Something tells me this is the game the defense gets itself back on tracked and takes advantage of an overexcited Garcia.

The Gamecocks finally beat Ole Miss in conference play a couple of weeks ago, but they won’t have the same luck with LSU. The Tigers will be a focused group out to prove that last weekend’s debacle in the Swamp was just a fluke.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Week 7 Picks

Saturday
South Carolina (4-2, 1-2) @ Kentucky (4-1, 0-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: South Carolina 12-6-1
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -1

This series has not gone well for UK lately as the Gamecocks have claimed the last 8 meetings. Most meetings have been close – 4 of last 6 decided by a TD or less – but SC seems to always manage to pull this one out. UK is also 0-15 against a Spurrier-coached team.

Last year, both of these teams were ranked when they squared off on a Thursday night. This year, both are still trying to identify who they are. The ‘Cats feasted on a diet of cupcakes early on while the Gamecocks have been up and down from game to game. They’re currently as “up” as they’ve been, coming off a nice road win in Oxford where the long-dormant passing game suddenly awoke.

This certainly has the makings of one of the most competitive SEC games of the season. Neither team is great, certainly, but they are evenly matched. Both rely heavily on a strong defense as neither offense has been consistent this year (USC ranks 6th in the conference in total offense, UK 8th).

Last year, SC DE Norwood busted onto the national scene returning two fumbles for TDs in the Cocks’ win. It’s certainly not out of the question that there could be a defensive score in this game as well. With neither team particulary effective running the ball, the game will boil down to USC’s play under center. If the Gamecocks get the same kind of production they got last week in Oxford, they’ll roll to a victory. If they get the kind of play they had against Vanderbilt in Week 2, Kentucky will steal one.

When it’s all said and done, look for Spurrier to continue his mastery of the ‘Cats and SC wins a close one.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

(#13, #14)Vanderbilt (5-0, 3-0) @ Mississippi State (1-4, 0-2)
1:30 CDT, No TV
All-Time Series: Mississippi State 10-7-2
Wednesday’s Line: Vanderbilt -2.5

The Commodores will be looking to start a season 4-0 in SEC play for the first time in program history, and the 4-game win streak would also match the longest SEC winning streak in program history. Starkville has never been kind to VU though, as the ‘Dores are just 1-6 through the years. They lost 5 straight there by and average of 27 ppg.

They won’t have to worry about that this year as neither team will approach 27 points. Like the UK/SC game, this is set up to be a very competitive, probably low-scoring game. Neither team is particularly effective offensively, and that won’t change this weekend against the others’ soft defenses. Mississippi State is going to pound the ball with a power-run game and not abandon it like Auburn did last week.

This game has upset written all over it. The Bulldogs are desperate for a win and the ‘Dores are coming off the biggest home game in recent memory and are truly in uncharted waters as a program. If this were last year’s MSU team, it would be a no-brainer, but the luck that followed the Bullies last year has gone. Neither of these teams is very good offensively, but the Bulldogs turn the ball over more than Vandy does, and that plays right into VU’s hands. It’s a good thing this game isn’t on TV, because – much like last week’s AU/VU game – this will be ugly.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one 100 times, but I just get the feeling that MSU pulls this one out. Croom always seems to pull one out of his… um, hat, and this seems like the perfect candidate in 2008.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Tennessee (2-3, 0-2) @ (#10, #10)Georgia (4-1, 1-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Tennessee 20-15-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -12

This marks the 2nd straight year UT has been unranked when it faces UGA, although the Vols have taken 3 of the last 4, including the last 2 by a combined 39 points. The visitors have won 4 of the last 5 and UT is 8-5 Between the Hedges. Overall, Fulmer sports an 11-5 record against the ‘Dawgs.

If UT wants to remain relevant for the rest of this season, they’ve got to continue the recent trend of visitors’ victories in this series. QB Nick Stephens will get another start under center for the Vols. He was effective against NIU, but nothing more. That’s certainly more than Crompton had been in earlier games though.

Unfortunately for the Vols, they’ll be dealing with a UGA team that’s had 14 days to simmer and stew over being embarrassed on national TV by Alabama. With Vandy sitting 3-0 in conference, the ‘Dawgs know they can’t afford to lose any more ground. They’ll welcome back human battering ram Brannan Southerland as well. The Vols have (statistically) the toughest defense in conference to move the ball against, allowing just 244.4 ypg, 3.9 ypp, but Moreno should find more room to run than he did against Bama, particularly with Southerland’s return.

It’s been ugly for the Vols this season and it could get even uglier Saturday afternoon. They just don’t have the offensive power to hang with UGA for 60 minutes. While I don’t think it’ll be the outright skull-dragging many are predicting, there’s no reason to think this won’t be a nice, comfortable conference win for the ‘Dawgs.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Arkansas (2-3, 0-2) @ (#20, #23)Auburn (4-2, 2-2)
4:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Auburn 10-6-1
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -18.5

As if the Tuberville/Petrino melodrama weren’t intrigue enough, Tony Franklin’s firing makes this game a little more interesting. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 5, though the road team has won the last 3 and 5 of the last 6. Tuberville surely has been dreaming of Jason Campbell handing off to Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams and pounding the Hogs into oblivion. He’s certainly not a Bobby Petrino fan.

The Hogs are coming off their best 3 quarter game of the season last week against Florida. They fell apart in the 4th and wound up on the wrong end of another blowout, but looked like a legitimate football team – at least defensively – before that. They’ll ride RB Michael Smith as far as he can take them, but against an AU defense that’s surrendering just 11.7 ppg and 248.8 ypg, hard to imagine that would be very far.

Who knows how AU’s offense will function this weekend against Arkansas? Even if it’s not a well-oiled machine, you’ve got to believe it will operate better than Arkansas’ has. Plus, I’ll take a chip-on-his-shoulder Tommy Tuberville over Petrino any day of the week, particularly on a Saturday gameday with these two defenses in play as well. Auburn wins this one comfortably, though 18.5 points may be a bit much to ask.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Arkansas

(#4, #3)LSU (4-0, 2-0) @ (#11, #12)Florida (4-1, 2-1)
7:00 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 28-23-3
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -6

This is one of the biggest game nationally Friday, and certainly the highest profile conference game since Alabama/Georgia a couple of weeks ago. LSU has won 3 of the last 4. The home team has won the last 3, but the road team won the previous 4.

This is a statement game for both programs. The Tigers have been impressive against a less than stellar schedule while the Gators have struggled moving the ball at times this season, though still lead the league in ppg. LSU ranks 2nd, just ½ a point behind them. It also pits a couple of coaches under comparison by ESPN’s Chris Low.

Florida doesn’t seem right to me at this stage of the season. The defense is certainly better than last year, but the offense has shown some signs of vulnerability. LSU is going to win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball and cause a lot of trouble for the Gators. I look for LSU to go to the Swamp and hand Florida its 2nd consecutive SEC home loss.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Week 6 Picks

Saturday
(#12,#13)Florida (3-1, 1-1) @ Arkansas (2-2, 0-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Florida 6-1
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -25

This will be the first meeting between UF and Arkansas since the 2006 SEC Championship game. Arkansas won the first meeting ever between these two teams in the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl, but has lost the last 6, including 2 SEC Championship games.

This one won’t be much of a game. Florida is coming off an upset loss to Ole Miss while the Hogs are coming off another thrashing, this time at the hands of Texas. The Razorbacks rank 65th in the country in total defense and 74th in total offense. While the Gators gain only a few more yards than they Hogs – 71st nationally – they score more than 15 more than the Hogs do. Their defense – 7th in the nation – is also significantly better.

Any disillusions Razorback fans had that this wasn’t a rebuilding year have gone up in flames the last two weeks that saw Arkansas outscored 101-25. A re-focused Gator team can all but name their score in this one.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2) @ Ole Miss (3-2, 1-1)
1:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Ole Miss 8-5
Wednesday’s Line: Ole Miss -2.5

Like the Florida/Arkansas series, this is one of those random East/West matches that only happens every few years. The Rebels have won 5 in a row against South Carolina, including all 4 meetings since the ‘Cocks joined the SEC in 1992. Current Ole Miss DC Tyrone Nix was at South Carolina last year.

Last year, when Nutt was at Arkansas, the Razorbacks slashed USC for 542 rushing yds behind McFadden’s 321 yds and Jones’ 166. This year, Nutt is at the helm of a much more balanced offense that showed equal parts big-play capability and mind-boggling inconsistency last week in the big win against Florida. Unlike last year though, SC’s defense is still healthy and leads the nation in total defense, allowing a paltry 221.4 ypg.

Spurrier is hoping that QB Garcia can bring a little spark to the stagnant Gamecock offense. While the D has been solid, the offense ranks 79th in total offense and 90th in scoring offense. He played well in spurts last year, but hasn’t proven to be a consistent performer yet. He’ll need to use his legs a lot on Saturday escaping the OM pass rush that bothered Tebow so much last week.

Nutt feels last week’s game was a turning point for the Rebels. As losers of nine straight SEC games, no one there “knew how to win”. They’re slight favorites in this game and the defensive line will only be healthier and more in rhythm than last week, when they controlled the line of scrimmage from the beginning. If they can avoid the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, they’ll actually have an SEC winning streak.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Kentucky (4-0, 0-0) @ (#2, #4)Alabama (5-0, 2-0)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 33-2-1
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -16.5

One of the most lopsided series in college football resumes this weekend when unbeaten Kentucky travels to Tuscaloosa to tangle with unbeaten Alabama. The ‘Cats are 0-8 in Tuscaloosa and haven’t beat UAT since 1997. UK’s other win in the series came in 1922.

While the ‘Cats have played 3 cupcakes and 1 pseudo-cupcake, they have looked impressive, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They currently rank 4th in the country, giving up just 227.3 ypg. The offense has been spotty at times, but seemed to hit its stride a bit last week against WKU.

Meanwhile, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule and has compiled the most complete body of work so far this season of any team in the country. They’re certainly due for a letdown this week after the annihilation of UGA last week, but the Tide is too sound fundamentally to lose this game. They lead the SEC in scoring and have given up just 20 more ypg than UK has, despite playing a much tougher schedule.

While this certainly isn’t a make or break game for UK, it certainly is a chance to legitimize their 4-0 record. While they won’t win the game, I do think they’ll keep it close enough to cover. Alabama is 17 points better than Kentucky most days, but as the Tide showed against Tulane, they’re not immune to a bit of a hangover. The Tide may need a special teams or defensive play to spark them, but they’ll move to 6-0.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Kentucky

(#13, #14)Auburn (4-1, 2-1) @ (#19, #19)Vanderbilt (4-0, 2-0)
5:00 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: Auburn 20-19-1
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -4.5

Auburn has won 13 straight in this series, which surprising gives them just a 1-game lead in the all-time series. The Tigers have rarely struggled in that streak, averaging 36.4 ppg and holding VU to 10 pts or less in 9 of the 13 games. Obviously, this weekend’s showdown presents a unique set of circumstances as they’d have to play 3 times for Auburn to reach 36 points.

Hmm… how to say it… Both of these teams are horrid offensively. Auburn ranks 90th in the country with 329.4 ypg and Vanderbilt ranks 112th at 282.8 ypg. Where the big difference lies on the defensive side of the ball. Auburn ranks 11th in the country, surrendering only 246 ypg. Vandy ranks last in the SEC and 73rd in the country giving up 364 ypg. Both defenses should improve their standings this weekend.

This is a chance for Vanderbilt to prove to everyone it belongs on the national scene. GameDay will be in town, it’s a national, primetime broadcast, and this has to be the smallest line on a Vanderbilt/Auburn game in recent memory. Unfortunately for the ‘Dores, this is the type of situation in which they typically fold.

I don’t see how the ‘Dores will move the ball against Auburn’s defense. If the Auburn offense can stay out the way of itself and let the defense win the game, the Tigers will be fine. They’ll have to take better care of the ball, as VU sports the most opportunistic defense in the country as they are currently rising a ridiculous +9 TO margin through just 4 games. South Carolina and Ole Miss seemed to make consistently bad decisions and spoonfed the Commodores TOs. It’s hard to take Auburn on the road against anybody at this point, but it’s even harder to imagine Vandy scoring much against the Tiger D.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Tennessee (1-3, 0-2)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -15.5

This will be Fulmer’s first tangle with a MAC opponent as head coach at Tennessee and it couldn’t come at a better time… so long as the Vols win, which is hardly a given regardless of the opponent. UNI has outscored its last two opponents 85-3. While the competition has been weak – Indiana State and Eastern Michigan – those are still gaudy numbers. This is the same program that beat then #21 Alabama in 2003 though, so the Vols will have to be ready to play. As bad as UT has been this year, they can’t afford to take anyone lightly.

My guess is the game goes something like this: Tennessee struggles, fans boo, UNI gets an early lead, fans boo some more, ponder how much it’ll take to bring Lane Kiffin in for the 2009 season, Tennessee’s defense makes a play or two, the Vols win by 10. It’ll be ugly, but a 2nd win for the Vols.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Northern Illinois

Week 5 Picks

A few snoozers this weekend, but the evening will be capped off with a matchup of Top 10 teams Between the Hedges in Athens. UT and Auburn play a game in which the loser is pretty much relegated to divisional-irrelevance for the remainder of the season.

Off this weekend: Vanderbilt

Saturday
Ole Miss (2-2, 0-1) @ (#4,#4)Florida (3-0, 1-0)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All Time Series: Ole Miss 11-10-1
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -22.5

This was a surprisingly close game last year, with the gators escaping Oxford with a mere 6-point win. This year, the Gators aren’t putting up the same gaudy offensive numbers they were last year, but neither are their opponents. The Gators currently rank 2nd nationally in scoring D (6.3 ppg) and 5th in total D (21.3 ypg). The Rebels have a better offense than any of the prior Gator opponents, so the D will be tested again.

OM is coming off a head-shaking loss to Vandy in which they barely gave up 200 yds of offense, but repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with 6 TOs. They scored their only TDs on a fumble recovery and kickoff return, so the offense must be chomping at the bit to get back onto the field. The Gators also scored while their offense was resting last week as they returned another punt for a TD, as UF basically toyed with Tennessee in yet another rout.

Last year, OM basically shut down everyone except Tebow, who became a man show late in the game. This year, the Gators’ more balanced offense presents a different set of challenges, but the finally whole OM DL will be ready. They’ll need to limit their own turnovers and force UF’s first turnover of the season or it will be a long day in the Swamp. Finding ways to slow down Percy Harvin will be difficult as well.

The Rebels actually lead the series in Gainesville 5-3-1. While I don’t think the Rebels have enough to win this game, I do think that 3+ TDs is too much for Florida to give. Nutt is a master motivator and the Rebels will knock off somebody this year, I just don’t think it’ll be the Gators this weekend. UF wins by 14-17, sending OM to its 10th straight SEC loss.

Straight Up: Florida
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Tennessee (1-2, 0-1) @ (#15,#16)Auburn (3-1, 1-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All Time Series: Auburn 25-21-3
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -6.5

This is the first meeting since Auburn’s 38-28 win in the 2004 SEC Championship game. The Tigers are 6-2-1 on the Plains against the Vols. The Vols have won 12 straight games the week after Florida while the Tigers have won 7 in row following LSU. Something’s got to give.

After a dismal performance against MSU a couple of weeks ago, the AU passing game got moving Saturday night against LSU. On the flip side, the Tigers averaged just 1.9 ypc, which is about half what they averaged against MSU (3.6 ypc).While they’re obviously still working out some kinks, that’s got to be a disturbing trend for Tuberville and his staff. The Vols have been strong against the run this year, ranking 26th in the country in Rush D giving up just 95 ypg and holding opponents to a 2.96 ypc average.

Both teams have struggled offensively. UT ranks 73rd in total offense (355.3 ypg) and is facing AU’s 20th ranked defense (259.8 ypg). Auburn ranks 55th in total offense (390.7 ypg) and is facing the Vols’ 22nd ranked defense (268.7 ypg). Turnovers have been a problem for both teams – 10 for AU, 7 for UT – so the team that handles that aspect will be at a decided advantage.

This one’s going to come down to the coaching, and you’d be hard-pressed to convince me to take Fulmer over Tuberville in this game. AU has a distinct special teams advantage in this one and will be working with a shorter field. While this one may be an ugly turnover fest, I gotta believe that at home, AU is a full TD better than UT.

Straight Up: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Arkansas (2-1, 0-1) @ (#7,#7)Texas(3-0)
2:30 CDT, ABC
All Time Series: Texas 55-21
Wednesday’s Line: Texas -27.5

With all the preseason talk about UGA’s schedule, lost in the shuffle was the Hogs’ brutal 4-game stretch exacerbated by Ike. The 2nd of 4 straight Top-15 games takes place in Austin this weekend. The Hogs are actually 3-1 in the last 4 meetings, but these teams haven’t played since 2004.

This one probably won’t be as ugly as the Bama beatdown from Saturday, but no reason to think the Hogs have even a puncher’s chance in this one. The Horns are scoring nearly 49 ppg so far this season while the Hogs have struggled, scoring just 23.3 ppg. Both teams move the ball efficiently – Arkansas is 46th in the country at 403ypg, Texas is 9th at 502ypg – but the Hogs sport a -6 TO margin. Also, Texas QB Colt McCoy has completed 77.8% of his passes for 833 yards and an 11/1TD/INT ratio, for a passer rating of 206.5.

I think the power of the rivalry may keep this one closer than the number. Petrino and staff will probably try to run more of a ball control offense to minimize UT’s possession time. While I don’t expect this one to be close, the Hogs’ll keep it within 4 TDs.

Straight Up: Texas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Western Kentucky (2-2) @ Kentucky (3-0, 0-0)
6:00, PPV
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Kentucky -21.5

Surprisingly, this is the first time these two schools have met. WKU joined 1A this year and will be a member of the Sun Belt Conference next year. They also have the greatest mascot on the face of the planet.

Kentucky continues their quest of dominating all non-SEC opponents before being exposed as a very flawed team in Tuscaloosa next weekend. Until they play an actual opponent and not a cupcake, I’m not going to waste my time thinking about their games.

Straight Up: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Western Kentucky

UAB (1-3) @ South Carolina (2-2, 0-2)
6:00, PPV
All Time Series: South Carolina 1-0
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -24.5

How bad are the Blazers? In 3 games against 1A competition, they’ve been outscored 129-59. The Vols scored 31 points them. FAU averages 15.5 ppg this season, yet hung 49 on UAB. If USC can’t get rolling against these guys, they might as well pack it up and go home. Smelley and/or Garcia should have easy pickings all game long.

In a schedule front-loaded with home games (4 already), this will be another nice, easy tune up for the rest of the meatier schedule. While the Gamecocks continue to look for answers under center, the defense will have its way with the hapless Blazers. They’ll score at least once in this game and help the ‘Cocks cover the larger-than-I-wish-it-were number.

Straight Up: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Mississippi State (1-3, 0-1) @ (#5,#5)LSU (3-0, 1-0)
6:30, ESPN2
All Time Series: LSU 65-33
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -24

No point in even attempting to break this one down and try to make it interesting. Here is all you need to know: Over the last 8 years, LSU has outscored the Bulldogs 340-81 (43-10). They’ve won 15 of the last 16, including 8 straight in Tiger Stadium. MSU is currently ranked 94th out of 120 teams in total offense with just 318 ypg. LSU is ranked 18th in total defense, surrendering just 252.7 ypg.

Don’t get me wrong, MSU has a fairly serviceable D, but even it rolled over last week as Georgia Tech rolled up 500 yds of offense. Two predictions: A) MSU OC Woody McCorvey will not be reading any message boards late Saturday night and B) This is the biggest no-brainer of the week. Anything under 5 TDs would be.

Straight Up: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

(#8,#10)Alabama (4-0, 1-0) @ (#3,#3)Georgia (4-0, 1-0)
6:45, ESPN
All Time Series: Alabama 35-25-4
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -7

Surprisingly, this is only the 6th time in 65-game history of this matchup that both teams are ranked, and only the 3rd time both are ranked in the Top 10. Alabama has lost 3 straight to UGA and hasn’t beaten the ‘Dawgs since 1995.

All eyes will be on Athens Saturday night as the Tide and the ‘Dawgs square off. Each has notched a big non-conference win and each won its conference opener, though the Tide with significantly more ease. The ‘Dawgs sport a more formidable offense, ranking 22nd in the country in ypg with 450, while the Tide ranks 57th with 387.5 ypg. The Tide is actually scoring half a point more per game (36.0 to 35.5). Each team boasts a top 25 total defense – UGA 14th at 243ypg, UAT 24th at 275ypg – as well as a top 20 scoring defense – UAT 8th at 9.3 ppg, UGA 18th at 13.8 ppg. Two of the country’s best freshman WRs will be on display as well in UGA’s AJ Green and Bama’s Julio Jones.

In the end, this game will boil down to QB play and UGA has an obvious advantage there. Both Ds will do an adequate job of at least containing the others power run game and both Stafford and JPW will be called on to convert some precarious 3rd down situations. Alabama’s youth/inexperience will also manifest itself in this one and the ‘Dawgs will capitalize. In what should be the game of the week (if not beyond), the ‘Dawgs win a tightly contested thriller, somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-21.

Straight Up: Georgia
Against the Spread: Alabama

Week 4 Picks

No hurricane-delayed games this week as there's finally a healthy slate of conference games, including 2 major divisional showdowns in Auburn and Knoxville. All 5 conference teams in the AP Top 10 are in action.

Off This Week: Kentucky

Saturday
Mississippi State (1-2, 0-1) at Georgia Tech (2-1)
11:30 CDT, ACC Raycom
All Time Series: Georgia Tech 2-0
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia Tech -8.5

The Bulldogs will head down to Atlanta this weekend hoping to redeem themselves from one of the worst offensive showings ever nationally-televised. MSU mustered just 116 yds last week against Auburn, but - as usual - their defense kept them in the ballgame until the very end of it. They be facing another stout defense as GT ranks 27th in the country in total defense (255.7 ypg) and 37th in scoring defense (16.7 ppg). That's unfortunate for MSU as their offense ranks a woeful 106th (16.7 ppg) in the country and that's with 34 points against a 1-AA school.

The Bulldog D will be tested by the Yellow Jackets' triple option. It's been a successful transition so far this year for Paul Johnson and his staff, though it will be interesting to see how it works against a defense as quick and good as MSU's. They won't have to put up many points to win, but they may find the points tougher to come by than their previous games though.

When it's all said and done, the Yellow Jackets win this one. After such an anemic showing at home last weekend, there’s no way to pick MSU on the road this week. The Bulldogs haven't beaten a non-SEC BCS opponent since the Snow Bowl on NYE 2000.

Straight Up: Georgia Tech
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

(#9,#13)Alabama (3-0, 0-0) at Arkansas (2-0,0-0)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All Time Series: Alabama 10-8
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -9.5

Arkansas will be out for revenge this year after last season's *ahem* controversial ending. But really, the biggest question in this game is which Alabama team will show up? The one that dominated Clemson and Western Kentucky? Or the one that needed its special teams to step up to get by Tulane. My hunch is that it's the former as Saban will have his players focused and ready to go.

The Hogs are averaging nearly 60 yds more per game than UAT (450-383), but based on competition level, it's not surprising. What's more telling though is the Tide is allowing 90 yds less per game than Arkansas is on defense (221-302). The Razorbacks - even with the extra week of preparation will find much tougher sledding this week. The rumor is that Petrino hasn't shown his full hand yet and was saving some tricks for the now-postponed Texas game, but until the Hogs put up points against a legitimate defense, that's just hearsay. The fact that they haven’t forced a turnover on defense is also disturbing.

The home team has won 4 straight in this one, but that trend stops this year. The Hogs just don't have the manpower to compete day in and day out in the SEC this year. Alabama wins big.

Straight Up: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

(#4,#4)Florida (3-0, 0-0) at Tennessee (1-1,0-0)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All Time Series: Tennessee 19-18
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -7.5

It's always entertaining when these two schools hook up, as the games are normally competitive and there's certainly no love lost between the two fan bases. This will a big test for UT QB Crompton as it will be just his 3rd career start. He was sharp last week against UAB, but looked lost for the majority of the UCLA game in week 1.

This will be the Gators' toughest defensive test to date. The Vols are rushing for 220+ ypg and averaging nearly 5 ypc. UF is only giving up 60 ypg, but have obviously not played a RB or OL like they'll encounter on Saturday. The Vols ability to pound the ball gives them a real shot at this game as the team that's rushed for more yds is 16-2 over the last 18 seasons. UT is only allowing 68 rush ypg, but like UF haven't faced an SEC-quality backfield.

In the end, the Gators just have too much firepower for the Vols to keep up with. Urban Meyer is 3-0 against Tennessee so far in his tenure in Gainesville and it's never been a good matchup for Fulmer, who's just 5-11 vs UF. Tebow shredded the Vols last year for 4 total TDs, and I expect more of the same this year, though a much closer game than the 39-pt blowout.

Straight Up: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Wofford (2-0, 0-0) at South Carolina (1-2,0-2)
6:00 CDT
All Time Series: South Carolina 17-4
Wednesday’s Line: N/A

The Gamecocks are the only team in conference playing a 1AA school this week, but after their last two games, they deserve it. This should (ideally) give Spurrier a chance to find a QB to stick with as his guy, but that won't happen. The Gamecock D may be a little disinterested in game after repeatedly holding the UGA offense down last week and not being rewarded for their efforts. South Carolina will obviously win this game, but it won't be pretty.

Straight Up: South Carolina
Against the Spread: N/A

Vanderbilt(3-0, 1-0) at Ole Miss (2-1, 0-0)
6:00 CDT
All Time Series: Ole Miss 46-34-2
Wednesday’s Line: Ole Miss -6.5

Vanderbilt heads down to Dixieland this weekend to take on Ole Miss. This has been a very competitive series lately. Though OM has won 12 of the last 15, many of the games have been very close. Vandy has taken 2 of the last 3, but both were in Nashville.

The ‘Dores have already exceeded some people’s expectations this season. They lead the conference in sacks with 10 and are 2nd in interceptions with 6, but rank just 68th in total defense in the country (357.3 ypg) and allow a surprising 5.1 ypp. The Rebels are actually ahead of VU in total defense, ranking 57th (333.0 ypg). They also sport the conference’s leading TD-tosser in Jevan Snead. He’ll have his work cut out for him against VU’s DBs.

If Vanderbilt can throw the ball effectively in this game, they’ll be tough to beat. QB Nickson and RB Hawkins average 170 ypg rushing, but the ‘Dores struggle through the air. With the Rebels’ DL getting healthier by the day, they’ll need a reliable aerial attack to keep the Rebels from stacking 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop the run.

If Vanderbilt wins this game, they’ll be 4-0 (2-0 in SEC) and ranked in the top 25. Let that sink in for a minute… now exhale, because it’s not gonna happen. The Rebels will be too hungry to pick up their first conference win since November 2006 and will pull this one out.

Straight Up: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

(#6,#6)LSU (2-0, 0-0) at (#10,#9)Auburn(3-0, 1-0)
6:45 CDT, ESPN
All Time Series: LSU 22-19-1
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -2.5

This is always one of the most entertaining and hard-fought games of the conference season and typically serves as a de facto SEC West Championship Game. LSU pulled a rabbit out of its hat last year to win 30-24 while AU used a few fortuitous calls from the men in stripes to win 7-3 in 2006. The last 4 games in this series have been decided by a combined 14 pts. The last two games in Auburn, the teams have combined for a total of 29 pts.

This year’s game will much more resemble the 2006 slugfest than last year’s offensive explosions. Both teams have questions on offense – LSU wonders which QB will play, Auburn wonders why they switched to the spread… We all knew there would be growing pains going to the new offensive scheme, but no one expected what they saw Saturday night. As an aside, the offense looked pretty crisp last year against Clemson in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, rolling up 420 yds and only committing 1 turnover all game. What happened?

This game is going to come down to the QBs. Both teams have stout Ds – Auburn ranks 1oth in the country 213.7 ypg, LSU 12 at 219.0 ypg – and a handful of explosive RBs, and Tuberville says that Brad Lester may even be back this weekend. The QBs are a different story. LSU and Auburn rank 76th and 96th respectively in passing offense. At this point, the advantage has to go to LSU as Auburn doesn’t have a QB on its roster who moves around well enough and smart enough to effectively operate the spread.

AU was my preseason pick to win the West, but now I’m not so sure. LSU is certainly not without weaknesses, but theirs are less glaring than AU’s. If LSU can minimize mistakes offensively, they’ll win this one behind the strength and size of their gargantuan OL and DL. The home team has won this game 8 straight years, but that trend ends this season.

Straight Up: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

(#3,#3)Georgia (3-0, 1-0) at (NR,#24)Arizona State (2-1)
7:00 CDT, ABC
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -7

This was hyped as one of the big marquee non-conference matchups of the year headed into the season. It’s lost some of its luster with the Sun Devil’s tank job last week against UNLV, but it will still be a statement game for one of the teams involved.

While it’s hard to get a read on ASU so far this year – their stats (except for that whole W/L record) have been propped up by mediocre competition – they do typically score a lot of points. QB Carpenter has been on the roster since the Reagan administration and has put up some gaudy passing #s in his tenure. If this game comes down to a FG, the advantage goes to the Sun Devils as they boast one of the country’s top kickers.

As for the outcome, I’ll believe it’s going to be competitive when I see it. I don’t think that the Sun Devils have the talent to handle the ‘Dawgs for 4 quarters. I also don’t believe UGA’s offense will struggle like it did last week for 2 consecutive games. This one may be competitive early, but in the end, the ‘Dawgs run away with it.

Straight Up: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Week 3 Picks

For the second straight week, the SEC slate will be one game short as Ike makes its way towards Texas. Hog fans can breathe a sigh of relief knowing they’ll stay undefeated one more week.

Off This Week: Florida, Arkansas

Saturday
UAB (0-2) at Tennessee (0-1, 0-0)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All Time Series: Tennessee 2-0
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -30

With 2 weeks to sulk about the inexcusable loss at UCLA, the Vols will not be in the best of moods when they take on the Blazers Saturday. The hapless Blazers will be the perfect punching bag for UT, as they’ve already give up 94 points in two games this year against Tulsa and Florida Atlantic. They also sit squarely on the waiting list of ESPN’s Bottom 10 List.

The last time the Blazers rolled into Knoxville, they nearly pulled the upset. No chance this year. While I don’t want to give up 4+ TDs to a team that looked as inept as the Vols did in Week 1, my guess is Fulmer doesn’t call off the dogs until late in this one as he tries to get his team in rhythm with Florida visiting next week. Fulmer will improve to 17-1 against current C-USA teams with a big victory this weekend. Look for the Vols to just hit the number, possibly with an Eric Berry TD to put them over the edge.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

(#2,#2)Georgia (2-0, 0-0) at South Carolina (1-1, 0-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All Time Series: Georgia 44-15-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -7.5

A revenge-minded UGA team will head to Columbia this weekend to face a desperate Gamecock squad needing a win to even stay relevant in the SEC East race. Last year, South Carolina held UGA to 4 FGs and pulled the upset. This year though, will be an entirely different story.
These are two teams heading in opposite directions. After going through the motions in the Week1 victory over Georgia Southern, the Bulldogs were sharp last week, dismantling a capable MAC foe in Central Michigan. The Gamecocks blew out a terrible NCST team in week 1, but had their offensive inefficiencies exposed against Vanderbilt last week. The revolving door QB situation in Columbia has already proven ineffective and shows no signs of getting better, particularly against a defensive front like UGA’s.

While the Gamecock D is stout, they’ll wear down by the end of this game. The offense – regardless of which QB is in - will produce too many 3 & Outs for the D to remain fresh. This game should be close at half time, with the ‘Dawgs tacking on 10-14 points in the 4th to win comfortably. Look for a 27-10 final, and USC's 6th straight SEC loss.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Western Kentucky (1-1) at (#11,#16)Alabama (2-0, 1-1)
6:00, PPV
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -28

After rocking Clemson in Week 1, Alabama was understandably flat against Tulane in Week 2. With conference season opening up next week, the Tide will be a bit more focused this week against a game WKU team. The Hilltoppers return 14 starters from last year’s 7-5 team and are coming off a win at Eastern Kentucky. While they obviously don’t have the horses to run with the Tide for 60 minutes, 4 TDs is too much to give in this one.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Western Kentucky

(#7,#7)Auburn (2-0, 0-0) at Mississippi State (1-1, 0-0)
6:00 CDT, ESPN2
All Time Series: Auburn 56-23-2
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -10.5

It should’ve been obvious to everyone what sort of season MSU was in for last year when they upset Auburn on the Plains. The Bulldogs completed just 5 passes and Tommy Tuberville outcoached himself as the Bullies pulled the 19-14 upset of the Tigers. No chance of a repeat this year.

While the Tigers’ offense has certainly been less than perfect this year, the defense has been stout. Couple that with an MSU offense that has been paltry at best and it’s an easy pick for AU to when this game. Much like the USC/UGA game, MSU’s defense will probably keep the Bulldogs close for a half. In the end though, the offense just won’t be able to get it done against AU and the defense will wear down.

MSU was the feel-good story of the year in the SEC last year. Unfortunately, nearly every other team in the league improved, while the Bullies seemingly stayed about the same. Look for the AU RBs to wear down the MSU front 7 as the game goes along and the Tigers pull away in the 2nd half.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Samford (2-0) at Ole Miss (1-1, 0-0)
6:00 CDT
All Time Series: Tied 1-1
Wednesday’s Line: No Line

About the only thing interesting I can come up with for this game is that Samford just rolled Faulkner 62-0 and Oxford was home to Pulitzer Prize winning author William Faulkner. Nutt will use this game to pad his RBs’ stats.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: N/A

Rice (2-0) at Vanderbilt (2-0, 1-0)
6:00 CDT
All Time Series: Vanderbilt 2-1
Wednesday’s Line: Vanderbilt -7.5

The ‘Dores are one of the real surprises this year, scoring 2 upset victories to start the season. The Rice Owls were expected to score a lot of points and have certainly not disappointed, having scored 98 through 2 games. This will be a stiff test for the ‘Dores’ vaunted pass D. Rice chucks the ball all over field – 7 pass TDs – and compliments it with an adequate running game. Defensively, the Owls are not strong and VU QB Nickson should find plenty of running room off the edges.

When it’s all said and done, I think the ‘Dores walk away with a 1 TD victory, somewhere in the area of 31-24. The VU offense should move the ball well and, while the Owls will put points up, they’ll turn the ball over one too many times to steal a win.

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: Rice

MTSU (1-1) at Kentucky (2-0, 0-0)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All Time Series: Kentucky 1-0
Wednesday’s Line: Kentucky-16.5

The only real drama here will be if UK can open the season with three straight games of not allowing a TD on defense. The offense should continue to improve as the brutal conference slate draws nearer, but it’s still a work in progress. Look for a low scoring game and the Big Blue coming out on top.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: MTSU

North Texas (0-2) at (#9,#9)LSU (1-0, 0-0)
7:00 CDT, PPV
All Time Series: LSU 3-0
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -41.5

Like OM/Samford, there’s no way to make this game interesting if you’re not an LSU fan. It’ll be ugly from the opening kick.

Normally, I’m against giving anyone 6 TDs. But it’s a night game at Tiger Stadium against the worst defensive team in the country and LSU has some on—field practice to be had with Gustav postponing last week’s game. The Mean Green have already give up 101 points this season. Look for LSU to have 42 points at half time.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU