Capital One Bowl Preview

(#16, #17)Georgia (9-3) vs (#19,#19)Michigan State (9-3)
Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL
January 1, 11:00 AM
All Time Series: Georgia 1-0
All Time Bowl Records: Georgia 24-16-3, Michigan State 7-11
Tueusday’s Line: Georgia -7.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Michigan State: 352.4 ypg (67th), 26.2 ppg (56th)
Georgia: 433.9ypg (20th), 32.1 ppg (29th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Michigan State: 357.9 ypg (61st), 21.9 ppg (40th)
Georgia: 318.3 ypg (28th), 25.6 ppg (63rd)

We’re 4 games into the SEC Bowl slate and finally a favorable matchup for the SEC. While Georgia certainly has fallen short of preseason expectations, this is still a remarkably talented team that’s capable of beating anyone in the country on any given day. Michigan State is a something of a surprise to be here, but rode workhorse RB Javon Ringer to an impressive 9-3 record, albeit in the Big10.

Nothing about this MSU team really jumps out at you besides Ringer, who’s rushed for nearly 1600 yds and 21 TDs. The defense is average and the passing game certainly leaves something to be desired. They’ve been beaten by a combined 94-25 against the other 2 ranked teams they’ve faced this year.

Sure, the ‘Dawgs run D was gouged for 409 yards last time out against Georgia Tech, but the Spartans feature a more basic, pro-style run game with Ringer. There’s a much smaller likelihood that the UGA defenders will repeatedly get caught so far out position play after play like they did against GTU. They’ll also know where the ball is going as Ringer has carried the ball close to 350 times this season already.

Despite the (lack of) effort against GTU, UGA still ranks in the top 40 rush defenses in the country, allowing 129.5 ypg on the ground. Before the GTU debacle, the Dawgs were allowing just over 100 ypg. They’ll bounce back with a solid effort against Ringer who’ll come nowhere near his self-described perfect game of “25 carries, 200 yards, 3 TDs, and win”. The only one of those stats he’ll approach will be the carries.

This Michigan State team is good, but certainly not great. If the ‘Dawgs show up to play, this one won’t be close. There’s too much offensive firepower for an average Sparty D to try and contend with and Ringer will struggle to consistently produce against the 8 and 9-man boxes he’ll be facing. This may or may not be the swan song for Stafford and Moreno in a UGA uniform, but they’ll end this season as big winners.

Georgia 34, Michigan State 17

The Sporting News Rates the Bowls

The Sporting News has ranked the Bowl Games 1-34 and it’s a little different from Rivals' picks. Here’s how TSN sees the SEC games.

1. BCS Title Game
There’s major pressure on Florida’s young defense and Oklahoma’s banged-up group to make a handful of stops and force a turnover or two.

3. Cotton Bowl
A curious case here for erratic Tech, which could roll with 10 touchdowns or fold after a poor regular-season finish. Ole Miss, with road wins over Florida and LSU, won’t be intimidated by the Red Raiders.

10. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Nothing like Paul Johnson’s triple option in the background to ring in the new year.

13. Sugar Bowl
Smell a barnburner? You’re not alone.

15. Capital One Bowl
This might be the last go-around for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno at Georgia

22. Outback Bowl
The game’s a scout’s dream and a fan’s nightmare.

30. Liberty Bowl
Not much talent on the field for this one.

32. Music City Bowl
What time does Opryland close New Year’s Eve?

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Thursday Afternoon Linkage

* It’s meaningless and inherently flawed, but quick… name the SEC school ranked highest in the New America Foundation’s 2nd Annual BCS Academic Standings. For the 99% of you that said Vanderbilt, you’re wrong. It’s Ole Miss.

The NFA’s formula starts with the team's most recent federal graduation rate, which includes four classes of players who entered college between 1998 and 2001 and graduated within six years of initial enrollment. Then, each team gains or loses points based on (A) the gap between the team's graduation rate and the overall school's graduation rate and (B) the gap between the team's black-white player graduation rate disparity and the overall school's disparity. Finally, the team gains or loses points if its Academic Progress Rate exceeds or falls below the Division I-A median.

* Chris Low runs down the Top 25 players in the SEC. Alabama leads the way with 7. Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss check in with 3 a piece, while LSU and Tennessee have 2 each.

* Auburn’s questionable hire of Gene Chizik has raised more than a few eyebrows across the SEC and the blogosphere ( I know, who knew?). Pat Forde grades the recent SEC hires and drops this gem:

Maybe Chizik will be the next Bill Parcells -- he went 3-8 in his first year as a head coach, at the Air Force Academy in 1978 -- before turning out all right. But until that happens, this has the makings of the worst hire in SEC history.

Dan Wetzel shares a similar viewpoint.

* Jason Whitlock is dead on again. While race may or may not have been a determining factor in Auburn’s passing on the more-talented Turner Gill for the Ed Orgeron Redux that is Gene Chizik, Auburn may not have been the right fit for Gill at this point of his career.

A Closer Look at the AP All-American Teams

With all the talk of the SEC being down a bit this year, only the Big 12 landed more players (18) on the 2008 AP All-American teams than the SEC’s 14. Not surprisingly, the Big 12 is heavy on the offensive side of the ball, landing 14 offensive players on the 3 teams. The SEC was second with 7. The ACC led all conferences with 9 All-American defensive players. The SEC was second with 7.

Here’s a look at how it breaks down by conference, by All-America team, 1st – 3rd.


While football is undoubtedly a bona fide team sport, you’ve got to have individual talent to win. The argument can rage for days about whether the Big 12 offenses are that good or the defenses are that bad. The exact opposite question is applied to the SEC. Unfortunately, there’s no answers to that here, or anywhere until the bowl games are played.

As a side note, SECSports lists only 13 SEC players on its website, but they missed LSU’s Herman Johnson, which is remarkably tough to do, given his stature.

SEC Power Poll All-SEC Team: Running Backs

As mentioned earlier, the SEC Power Poll voters have compiled an All-SEC team of our own. We voted on each position and are now revealing our results. The offense is being revealed today with the defense following later this week.

You can see the QB at Alligator Army, the Tight End at Leftover Hotdog, and the Offensive Line and Wide Receivers at TeamSpeedKills.

This year's winners for top RBs in the league are UGA's Knowshown Moreno and Alabama's Glen Coffee.

While UGA might not have enjoyed the type of season it had hoped for, it's not because of Moreno. He was electrifying week in and week out, rolling up 7 100-yard games as he and backfield buddy QB Matthew Stafford led the 'Dawgs to 32.1 ppg, 2nd best in the conference. He averaged 5.9 ypc and tallied at least 1 TD in every game except the Tennessee game.

While Moreno and UGA got the majority of the preseason hype, Glen Coffee and the Tide made it abundantly clear early and often that they were not to be trifled with. While Coffee certainly benefited from Alabama's monstrous offensive line, he - and fellow RB Mark Ingram - were the steadying forces for Alabama's ball control offense. Coffee registered 5 100-yard games and averaged a robust 6.1 ypc. His numbers could've been much higher, but he split time with Ingram

Here's a look at their numbers and conference ranks*:

Rush Yards Per Game
Knowshon Moreno 111.5 (1)
Glen Coffee 102.9 (3)

Total Rushing Yards
Knowshon Moreno 1338 (1)
Glen Coffee 1235 (2)

Rushing TDs
Knowshon Moreno 16 (1)
Glen Coffee 9 (3)

Total Yards From Scrimmage
Knowshon Moreno 1667 (1)
Glen Coffee 1306 (3)

*regular season games only

Knowshon Moreno
We've all seen this one 1000 times...

...and this one too...


Glen Coffee
He's literally untouched on this...

... and a very nice featurette on SportsCenter

Rivals ranks the SEC Bowl Games

Rivals has ranked the bowl games from 1-34 in terms of intrigue and interest. With 68 teams making the postseason these days, there are quite a few games that even alumni probably can’t get up for. Of the 8 SEC games, 5 rank pretty high (top 13). The other 3… not so much.

Here’s how Rivals sees it:

1. BCS National Championship Game, Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1):
It's for the national title, which makes it No. 1 on this list. The past two title games have been decided by a total of 41 points. That may be the number of points needed to win this one.

6. Sugar Bowl, Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0):
Utah has a lot to prove, despite its unbeaten record. Will Alabama suffer any kind of hangover from its SEC title game loss?

7. Capital One Bowl, Georgia (9-3) vs. Michigan State (9-3):
An intriguing Big Ten-SEC matchup. Michigan State can't pass, but TB Javon Ringer had a great season and Georgia's defense has had trouble against the run. And can Michigan State slow Georgia TB Knowshon Moreno? In their three losses, the Spartans' defense was run over.

9. Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1):
Ole Miss has a good front four, and if you can harass Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, he becomes an average quarterback. But only one team was really able to harass him this season. Watch Ole Miss junior DE Greg Hardy, who could declare for the draft. Hardy could make himself quite a bundle of money with a big game.

13. Chick-fil-A Bowl, Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5):
This basically is a home game for the Yellow Jackets, who will be playing a few miles from their campus in downtown Atlanta. LSU comes in having lost three of their past four. If the Tigers' defense doesn't awaken from its season-ending slumber, LSU is going to finish 7-6 one season after winning the national title.

22. Outback Bowl, Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5):
Iowa runs well but can't throw. South Carolina runs poorly and would like to throw but can't. At least both play good defense.

26. Music City, Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6):
Vanderbilt comes in having lost six of its past seven. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us. BC, by the way, holds the nation's longest current bowl winning streak, at eight games.

27. Liberty Bowl, East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6):
Kentucky comes in having lost three in a row, four of five and six of eight. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us.

While Chris Low (ESPN) doesn’t delve into all 34 games, he ranks the SEC games in that same order. From a neutral standpoint, that’s probably how I’d have to rank them as well. On a national scale, I think the Outback should be higher than the 22nd most interesting bowl, but I agree with its pecking order in the rank of SEC games.

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Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

Here's a look at this week's SEC Bowl projections from a panel of "experts".

* Apparently NBC's Cary Estes was projecting Auburn to knock off Georgia as the Tigers have disappeared off this list completely.

* Tennessee and Mississippi State are already guaranteed losing seasons. Arkansas and Auburn are both mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, but both teams would need major upsets to go their way.

* I know Alabama fans are upset that they're being slighted - #1 in the country and not predicted to reach the title game - but the simple fact of the matter is that the Gators are the best team in the country right now. Both teams just need to stay focus and avoid pitfalls between now and December 6th.

* Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt are all about equal in the eyes of the 5 pundits listed. I've talked about this before in previous threads, but I don't think the Music City Bowl would take Kentucky for a third straight year unless their hand is forced by circumstance. And I doubt the Wildcats players or fans would be too excited either.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (which chooses teams before the Music City Bowl) has the choice between a 7-5 Ole Miss team and a 7-5 Kentucky team, my guess is that they'd take UK to revitalize the CATlanta atmosphere so prevalent at the SEC Basketball tournament of years past. If Ole Miss knocks of LSU this weekend and finishes 8-4 and 2nd in the West though, the 'Cats may end up back in Nashville.

* Vanderbilt is in an interesting situation as the Music City Bowl is hosted (basically) just across the river from their campus. While the 'Dores certainly won't be picky about a bowl game after a 25 year drought, the coaching staff may prefer to travel to another city to be sure the players get the full bowl experience.

They could theoretically end up in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a win over UT this weekend and knocking off Wake Forest on the road next weekend. That would then send UK to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl and Ole Miss to Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

* UPDATED 11/18/08Mandel's picks are in from CNN/SI. Apparently, he thinks the Gamecocks are going to lose next weekend in Clemson, as he projects Ole Miss to take the Outback Bowl bid. While a Gamecock loss is certainly not out of the question, I'm not sure that would land Ole Miss in Tampa.

From the Bowl Tie-In Page on SECSports.com:

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.

In his scenario, the Cotton Bowl selects LSU, which would seem to imply the Tigers beat the Rebels this weekend. The Outback Bowl takes Ole Miss, which they'd be allowed to do since the Cotton Bowl had already taken an SEC West team. To me, it seems that if the Rebels beat LSU and MSU, they'd be more attractive to the Cotton Bowl than LSU would be. If they don't beat LSU, it seems the Gamecocks would be more attractive to the Outback Bowl than the Rebels unless they get blown out at Clemson next week. Neither scenario has the Rebels landing in the Outback Bowl.

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

My Thoughts:
* I added in Stewart Mandel's picks from CNN/SI, though his fall in line with majority consensus on every game.

* With Penn State's loss to Iowa, both Alabama and Florida control their own destiny to play in the BCS Title game. As long as neither slips up against their final 2 regular season opponents, the loser of the clash in Atlanta will receive a Sugar Bowl Bid as a consolation prize.

* Please disregard any posts I may have made in the past weeks stating that Tennessee would rally around Fulmer's departure and win out. What a horrid performance they put on Saturday.

* And if anyone knows how to reach Cary Estes, the contributing writer for NBC.com, I'd love to hear if he thinks Auburn is going to knock off Georgia or Alabama to get their 6th win and wrap up an Independence Bowl bid.

* At least to me, it doesn't make sense for Kentucky to end up in Nashville for a 3rd straight season. The Bowl-Tie-In page on the SEC's site says:

In selections 6-7, the AutoZone Liberty and Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowls will make their selections, not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office. The Bowls will rank available qualified teams in order of preference. If there are no similarities in the order of selection, the bowls will be granted its selection. If the bowls rank the same teams in preference, the team involved in the process would get its preference of which bowl to participate.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl selects Ole Miss over UK, that's going to leave the 'Cats and (supposedly) Vanderbilt left as the 6th and 7th bowl-eligible teams. Obviously the Liberty Bowl would rank Vanderbilt ahead of Kentucky, but would the Music City Bowl rank Kentucky ahead of Vanderbilt on its list of preferences? And even if they did, would Kentucky really opt to head to Nashville again?

* I'm still not convinced that Vanderbilt wins another game this season to wrap up that Liberty Bowl bid. They're stuck in a pressure cooker at this point and with a shaky defense and shakier offense, win #6 is looking tougher.

* I like Bruce Feldman. I really do. He and Chris Low are the best two college football writers espn.com has. But there's no way that the Capital One Bowl deems LSU the most attractive non-BCS-Bowl-bound SEC team. Sitting at 3-3, they're going to have to work just to finish with a winning conference record. Ole Miss and Arkansas are certainly capable of knocking them off. Georgia is far and away the more attractive option there, especially considering the woodshed beating laid on the Tigers in Tiger Stadium.

Week 11 SEC Bowl Projections

After a weekend of games that helped solidify the pecking order in the SEC, projections (for the most part) are starting to be a little more consistent.

My Thoughts:

* Despite being #1 in the country and the only undefeated team left in conference, no one's projecting Alabama to hang onto that spot and make it to the BCS Title Game. After Florida's performances the last 2 weeks, it's hard to blame them.

* Ole Miss is seemingly the hardest team for the pundits to get a read on. The 5 projections here have them going to 4 different bowls. No other team has more than 2.

* I tend to agree with CBS and Scout that Tennessee finds itself back in a bowl game to send Fulmer out. The remaining teams on Tennessee's schedule - Wyoming, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky - are certainly all winnable games.

* I also tend to agree with Scout that Vandy won't be bowling this year. Their 5-0 start was an aberration and a forgotten one at that. They've got 4 games left, but this weekend's beatdown by Florida may drain what little life the 'Dores have left.

* Give credit to Petrino and the Hogs for turning around what was certainly a disastrous start to the SEC season, but I don't see them beating LSU or South Carolina, one of which they'll have to do to play in a bowl.

* Would the Music City Bowl really want Kentucky again? They're already the 2-time defending Music City Bowl Champs? Isn't that enough?

* Apparently they feel that if the Independence Bowl can't have Alabama, they don't want any SEC team. Only 1 projection for the Indy Bowl, and it's for Arkansas, which I just don't see happening.

Rivals Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects

Yesterday, Rivals put up their early look at the NFL Draft Top 100 prospects. Needless to say, the SEC was well represented, landing 28 players on the list, including the top 3 spots. The wealth is spread out amongst the league as 10 teams land at least one player in the Top 100 and 7 teams have multiple players listed.

Given the SEC’s success churning out 1st round draft picks over last decade though, this should hardly be a surprise. It’s interesting to see the differences between Rivals and ESPN’s 2009 mock draft 1st round.

LSU leads the way with 6 players, followed by Florida with 5, Georgia with 4, Tennessee and Alabama with 3, Arkansas and Ole Miss with 2, and Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State with 1 a piece. Here’s a look at the players and what Rivals has to say about each.

* indicates underclassmen

1. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Oher has a rare blend of size, athleticism and girth. He entered the 2008 NFL draft, then pulled out a few days later even though he was considered a first-round pick. New coach Houston Nutt is glad he stayed. This time around, Oher – now a senior – could be the first player taken in the draft. He is No. 1 on the Rivals.com list of the top 100 pro prospects and could be the second consecutive offensive tackle chosen No. 1 overall; the Miami Dolphins took Michigan's Jake Long with the No. 1 pick earlier this year.

2. Andre Smith *, OT, Alabama
A massive tackle with great feet, in the mold of former first-round pick Shawn Andrews.

3. Matthew Stafford *, QB, Georgia
The most natural pocket passer in the nation. He has a skill set similar to Carson Palmer's.

12. Knowshon Moreno *, RB, Georgia
He is the most "natural" running back in the nation, with a combination of vision, quickness and balance. He has a good burst and a second gear.

16. Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
The best center prospect we have seen in the past five years.

18. Ricky Jean-Francois *, DT, LSU
Was the quickest and most disruptive LSU defensive lineman in the national championship game last season and, yes, that includes Glenn Dorsey.

20. Jermaine Cunningham *, DE, Florida
A compact, powerful end with speed, power and change-of-direction skill on the edge.

22. Herman Johnson, G, LSU
He's an amazing physical specimen at 6 feet 8 and 360 pounds who can move and re-direct in space. He's fluid and agile for a man his size.

23. Percy Harvin *, WR, Florida
An explosive athlete in space who can make a play any time he has the ball.

31. Tim Tebow *, QB, Florida
A dual run/pass threat who has all the intangibles. He can buy time in the pocket but needs to learn to read defenses more consistently in the passing game.

32. Geno Atkins *, DT, Georgia
Another explosive SEC three-technique defensive tackle. He will get a lot more attention from opposing linemen with the season-ending injury to Bulldogs DT Jeff Owens.

35. Derek Pegues, FS, Mississippi State
He is built and runs like a corner, but is a ballhawk as a safety.

36. Rico McCoy *, LB, Tennessee
Undersized but has the most impressive fluidity and range of any linebacker in the draft. He should really rise up draft boards.

39. Ciron Black *, OT, LSU
Displays a compact stance and moves well laterally. He can re-direct and has the quickness to reach the corner.

47. Greg Hardy *, DE, Ole Miss
His long limbs and speed make him difficult to block. He has the quickness to beat tackles outside or inside off the snap.

48. Brandon Spikes *, LB, Florida
A powerful linebacker who showcases good instincts inside, and does a nice job stacking and shedding versus the run.

53. Louis Murphy, WR, Florida
Showcases great deep speed and is a constant vertical threat. Is a raw route runner and lacks consistent hands.

57. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina
A smooth tackle who can handle speed off the edge. He is coordinated re-directing but needs to improve his technique.

58. Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
Has a great combination of power and athleticism. He is natural in space and gets a good push as an in-line run blocker.

64. Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia
A sideline-to-sideline athlete who has a nose for the ball and makes plays all over the field.

68. Sen'Derrick Marks *, DT, Auburn
A big-bodied tackle who can eat up space on the inside, and shows the power to push the pocket and anchor versus the double-team.

69. Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
Ideal for a zone-blocking scheme. He displays great feet and body control, and can really get out to the second level.

72. Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
Has a big, strong frame and is powerful attacking downhill. He has the athleticism to run sideline-to-sideline.
A strider who is sudden out of his breaks and does well going up and attacking the ball.

75. Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee
He's thickly built, with a compact frame. Has smooth lateral mobility and a strong punch, showcases good body control and never over-extends.

78. Keiland Williams *, RB, LSU
Dynamic with the ball in his hands, but lacks the girth and instincts to be successful between the tackles.

82. Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Possesses great size, length and suddenness off the edge. He needs to play with more power and more of a mean streak.

94. Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
Possesses great size and quickness through the tackles, but tries to run like a scatback too often and doesn't lower his head and drive for tough yards.

100. Terrence Cody *, DT, Alabama
Displays amazing athleticism for a man who weighs 370 pounds. He could really soar up draft boards with a strong season.

2008 SEC East Predictions

I wanted to pick UGA to win it, I really did, but I just couldn't. With injuries, an apparent lack of focus, and that schedule, I think they're fighting an uphill battle this season. Here's how I see it shaking out:

1. Florida
Coming off something a disappointing season (in their eyes), the Gators seem to have all the pieces in place for another MNC run this season. Assuming the defense has improved, Tim Tebow and the Gator offense will be on the field more often this year, which can be only mean good things for a team that averaged 42.5 ppg last year. With a more balanced attack planned, the Gators could be even more dangerous offensively this year, particularly with a softer schedule than Georgia.

Best Case Scenario:
The offense gels early and the defense has learned from its ups and downs last season. The Gators go 14-0 bringing home a 3rd straight BCS title for the SEC.

Worst Case Scenario
The defense is still soft, their injury situation catches up with them, SEC coaches figure out ways to contain Tebow and Co., and the Gators drop to 2nd or 3rd in the East.

2. Georgia
Yes, they’re preseason #1 in both polls and the most talented team in the best conference in America. The problem – of course – is the other things: the arrests, the injuries, and that brutal schedule that includes road games to LSU, South Carolina, and Auburn. Also, I’m not as enamored with Stafford as many people are. All the tangible skills are there, but good decision making is not always there. UGA was the best team in the country at the end of the season last year, and while they’re certainly capable of carrying that over to 2008, I’ll need to see it before I believe it.

Best Case Scenario:
This one’s fairly obvious – they pick up where they left off and obliterate everything in their sight. A BCS Title is a real possibility here.

Worst Case Scenario
The “bad” Stafford shows up in big games, the shenanigans continue to run wild, they fold under the mounting pressure and drop to 8-4 or even 7-5. Can’t see that happening though.

3. Tennessee
The surprise winner of the SEC East last season is back for more in 08. They’ll have to replace OC Cutcliffe as well as their QB, but HC Fulmer’s been around the block a time or two. Their schedule includes tough road games to Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina, but they get Florida and Bama at home in two major payback games for blowouts last season. The Vols have a real chance to surprise some folks this season.

Best Case Scenario:
Crompton steps in and the offense doesn’t miss a beat. They knock off Florida at home, UGA falters and the Vols return to ATL for the SEC CG.

Worst Case Scenario:
Offense sputters with Ainge and Cutcliffe gone, the 4-week span with vs UF, @UGA, vs NIU, @AU goes badly and the Vols fold up shop for the year.

4. South Carolina
I was guilty of jumping on the Gamecock bandwagon last year, predicting them to win the SEC East. I looked like a genius for 7 games… not so much for the last 5. This year I’m not buying it. Too much uncertainty at the QB spot and I’m not convinced that the Ol’ Ball Coach really has it in him anymore. I think USC will be good, but it’ll only be enough for a 4th place finish in the East.

Best Case Scenario:
Spurrier rediscovers the magic touch, DC Ellis Johnson rejuvenates the D, someone steps up at the QB position and the Gamecocks make it to the Outback or Liberty Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:
Team plays like it did the last month of last year, no consistency from QB, Stephen Garcia continues to dominate the headlines for all the wrong reasons, and Clemson again knocks the Gamecocks out of bowl contention.

5. Kentucky
The Wildcats were ranked for the first time since 1985 and won bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1951-52. But the key pieces to that team – QB Woodson, RB Little, and WRs Burton and Johnson – are gone. The defense should actually be better, as they’re “only” having to replace LB Woodyard, but the offense will take a big step back, particularly without QB Pulley. They get Arkansas and Vandy at home, but they’ll need to pull an upset to even reach a bowl game.

Best Case Scenario:
The defense lives up to its potential, they find a QB who can get the ball to Dicky Lyons, and RBs Dixon and Locke improve as the season goes along. Even then, I can’t see a bowl game for the ‘Cats.

Worst Case Scenario:
If the defense doesn’t play like it’s capable and no one steps up at QB, it could be very ugly for UK this year.

6. Vanderbilt
Last year was supposed to be most recent “the year” that Bobby Johnson finally gets Vanderbilt to a bowl game. As usual, Vandy was sitting at home come bowl season. They had an established QB, an All-SEC WR, and a proven defense. Now they have none of that. With a killer schedule to boot, this could be a less than enjoyable year for the ‘Dores.

Best Case Scenario:
Jay Cutler, Earl Bennett, and Hunter Hillenmeyer are all mysteriously awarded extra years of eligibility and Florida and Georgia forfeit their games.

Worst Case Scenario:
With that schedule, 2-10 is not outside the realm of possibility…

Scary Thought

So I'm flipping through Phil Steele's college preview guide today, looking at bowl projections and schedules et al, and a terrifying thought occurred to me... What if the BCS Championship Game was Ohio State vs Clemson? Before you laugh, consider the facts: Each plays in a mediocre conference and will be favored in most if not all their games.

Florida and Georgia - considered by most to be the SEC's best shot at yet another title this year - each have much tougher schedules, particularly UGA. While no one with half a functioning brain woulds argue that OSU or Clemson is better than either UGA or Florida, the chances of either SEC team getting through their regular season slate unscathed are very slim. It's just the nature of the beast in the SEC and something that outsiders can't understand, because they're not exposed to it in the lesser conferences like the Big10+1 and the ACC.

While Ohio State has a big road game @ USC early on, that will be by far their biggest test of the season. Everyone outside the Buckeye Nation will be pulling for USC in that one because, quite frankly, no one wants to see OSU in the BCS Championship Game again this year. They've been embarrassed in it for two straight seasons, and that's enough. If they get past the Trojans, they're all but guaranteed an undefeated season and third straight humiliation.

As for Clemson, they're the preseason pick by everyone to win the ACC this season. They open the season on a neutral site against Bama and end the season against South Carolina, but have - obviously - a very manageable conference slate. The biggest problem for the Tigers has been consistent inconsistencies. HC Tommy Bowden's seat has been hot for several years running as his Tigers always drop at least one inexplicable game per season. Phil Steele projects them to be a BCS team this year and with a few lucky breaks, they could end up playing for all the marbles.

Can you imagine that game? I'm talking about Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes... The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! It would be like watching an SEC game in slo-motion. The announcers would be working overtime to try and convince the viewing public that the game is worth watching. The Sugar Bowl would have the highest national viewership, as - quite frankly - no one outside the two fanbases would care.

Like I said... Scary Thought

Not too much going on these days...

Other than what seems to be a twice-weekly occurrence of players being booted off teams, all's quiet for now. Well, except for Urban Meyer. Most of you have probably heard about this...

Simply calling Tim Tebow the best quarterback in college football apparently isn't enough. Gators coach Urban Meyer told a Miami audience that Tebow ''is the greatest player of our era.''

Tebow certainly has the potential to be the greatest player of this era, but I think it's premature to bestow that honor on him just yet. The MNC ring as a freshman and the Heisman as a sophomore put him in a class by himself, but he's got at least one year in college. SEC coaching staffs have had another full offseason to work on defensive schemes to slow him down. And, there are plenty of defenders across the SEC who will take a little extra joy popping the defending Heisman winner.

* ESPN loves to make up new statistics and shove them down our throats - OPS anyone? Their latest is to come up with (in their mind) the definitive way to measure the prestige of all college basketball programs since 1984-85, the year the tourney went to its current format. They've listed #s 41-50 here and #s 51-300 here.

I love the reasoning ESPN gives as to how these numbers are indisputable:

Normally when you see these rankings, they are the "expert" opinion of one or more people whose knowledge (and sanity) usually is questioned by those who disagree. But with ESPN's Prestige Rankings, there is no such argument. We let the numbers do the talking. We assigned point values for certain successes (win a national title, earn 25 points) and failures (get your program banned from the NCAA tournament, lose three points), put all the seasons through our big calculator and came up with the No. 1 program (and the No. 300 program) of the past 24 seasons.

But I digress.

So far, 8 of the SEC's 12 schools have shown up...
41. LSU
T-86. Mississippi State
T-90. Auburn
T-96. Vanderbilt
99. Tennessee
T-105. Georgia
T-185. South Carolina
T-192. Mississippi

...which leaves Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama. Without taking the time to do the math, It'll be interesting to see if UF or UK comes out on top for the SEC. Each has 2 championships and a title game loss. I'd imagine Alabama will be in the next group, Florida in the 20s, and Arkansas somewhere in the teens. Even with mediocre play lately you gotta figure UK is in the Top 10.

In the end though, it's just another excuse for ESPN to fawn over ACC basketball. Once the top 10 is unveiled Friday, you can count on Duke Vitale to show up on Sportscenter and go crazy for Dook and UNC.

*UPDATE: 7/22*As expected, Alabama shows up at #35. More than any other SEC team, Alabama had the most opportunity to be higher than they are. While Florida had some painful early exits in recent years, the Tide made it routine in the late 80s/early 90s.
*UPDATE: 7/23*Florida checks in at #21
*UPDATE: 7/24*Arkansas shows up at #15
*UPDATE: 7/25*>Kentucky ranks #4, based almost entirely on Pitino's utter dominance of the SEC when he there.

* Next time you think you're doing well at the gym, try not to think of UT OL Jacques McClendon and how he benched 645 pounds. And no that's not a typo...

* Fairly interesting read on BleacherReport today: 30 Fearless Predictions for the 2008 season

* Off topic, but if you haven't see The Dark Knight yet, what are you waiting for? Christopher Nolan's Batman franchise is what all other superhero franchises wish they were. Superman Returns was mediocre at best and, after Spiderman 3, that franchise is dead. Iron Man was good, but Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are in a league of their own when it comes to Superhero movies.

Top SEC Newcomers

Chris Low ranks the SEC's Top 10 Newcomers
1. Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss
2. Chris Rainey, RB, Florida
3. Demetrice Morley, S, Tennessee
4. Chris Todd, QB, Auburn
5. Raven Gray, DE, Auburn
6. Will Hill, S, Florida
7. Jerrell Harris, LB, Alabama
8. Enrique Davis, TB, Ole Miss
9. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
10. Blair Walsh, K, Georgia

Two each for the Gators, AU Tigers, Rebels, and Tide. He also includes DT Jerrell Powe and LB Patrick Trahan of Ole Miss and DE Gerald Williams and TE Brandon Warren UT. Each has the ability to be an impact player if they can get their classroom work taken care of. Powe in particular has been the subject of many a water-cooler conversation over the past few years in his seemingly never-ending saga. Former OM coach Ed Orgeron fought like a mad man to get Powe eligible, only be to be denied repeatedly. From what I'm hearing through the Ole Miss grapevine, Powe will be eligible this year, they're just waiting until after SEC Media Days to announce it as to not have to field the questions about it.

And, if you need a laugh, here are some stupid kids and hard metal basketball rims:

Athens has been rockin' lately

What in the world is going on in Athens lately? For all the athletic success UGA has already experienced this year - in baseball, tennis, a remarkable SEC Tourney in men's basketball - it seems they're in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Here's a brief run down of recent events at UGA:

* A Semester of Shame ended
* Football players Justin Anderson and Trinton Sturdivant got in trouble
* So did Jeremy Lomax
* But not as much trouble as Michael Lemon
* And the basketball team lost yet another player due to behavior
* And another one left on his own
* And poor UGA VI couldn't bear it any longer

If you've ever driven to Athens from Atlanta, chances are you've driven through Dacula. Depending on your "mental state", stopping at the local Waffle House might have been on your agenda. Well, these two love birds took it one step further and had themselves a Waffle House Wedding.

Couldn't make it up if I tried

Georgia gets run over by Cinderella

After a remarkable Cinderella run through the SEC men's basketball tournament, the University of Georgia had the tables turned against it in Omaha. After knocking out superior foes earlier in the tournament, it appeared - on paper - that UGA should have little problem dispatching a Fresno State team that was working with a exhausted, makeshift pitching staff. But - as we all know - games aren't played on paper, they're played inside TV sets.

It took a great bottom of the 8th rally to win Game 1. Other than that 8th inning, this series wasn't really close. It caps off a roller coaster season for UGA that saw them win the regular season SEC championship, get swept at the SEC Tournament, lose a Regional game to Lipscomb before beating arch rival Georgia Tech twice to advance to a Super Regional. There, they took 2/3 from NC State before rolling to the Championship Series in Omaha.

Based on recent history, UGA will not be very good next year, but will be back in Omaha in 2010.

As an aside, hats off to Fresno State. They're a fun team to watch and played their hearts out. It's cliche, but it seemed they just wanted it more than UGA did. At least it wasn't an ACC team that won it. After listening to those pompous fans gloat all season about how great the ACC was, it was satisfying to watch their teams drop like flies in Omaha.

Could the SEC have 10 Bowl Teams in 2008-09?

ESPN's Mark Schlabach believes that 10 SEC teams will be bowling at the end of the 2008 season. He predicts:

*Georgia vs Ohio State in the National Title Game
(Oh goody, tOSU vs the SEC in a bowl game... How exciting!)
*Auburn vs Texas Tech in the Sugar Bowl
(Would be interesting to see the contrast of styles)
*Ole Miss vs Houston in the Liberty Bowl
(OM from 0-8 in conference to a respectable bowl?)
*LSU vs Texas in the Cotton Bowl
(I'm sure Cotton Bowl officials are praying for this matchup)
*Florida vs Illinois in the Capital One Bowl
(Gee, I wonder what the appeal of this matchup is)
*Tennessee vs Penn State in the Outback Bowl
(Don't these two play every year somewhere in Florida?)
*Alabama vs Virginia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl
(Word is they'll move the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to Shreveport to make the transition easier on the Tide players)
*South Carolina vs Miami in the Music City Bowl
(Not the bowl game Gamecock fans have in mind for this year)
*Kentucky vs Rutgers in the Papajohns.com Bowl
(I'll be surprised if UK is in any bowl game this year)
*Mississippi State vs Oklahoma State in the Independence Bowl
(See above notes)

Why you should love every college football team

The guys over at Cake Rocks the Party have put together a list of reasons to pull for every team in the country. Some are quite funny, some not so much. But in a college-football starved region of the country, it’s certainly worth a read.

For those interested only in the SEC teams, here ya go:

78. Vanderbilt: Here’s the thing about Vanderbilt. They always seem to have one or two good pro prospects, even if it is a lot more academic than athletic at Vandy. This year’s big prospect is Thomas Welch.

63. Kentucky: Now we all know about the magic quarterbacking that Andre Woodson perpetrated. But did you know that Curtis Pulley actually beat him out? It’s true! So maybe Andre Woodson went all Batman in the Summer of 2006. But by this analogy? Curtis Pulley is Wolverine. That’s all good sir.

54. Arkansas: We may get an opportunity to see if Bobby Petrino is nothing more than a licensed asshole. If Casey Dick (a.k.a. the Swiftboat Quarterback for Truth)** can become a good passer? Then Bobby Petrino is the truth in the college ranks.

53. Ole Miss: Good news for Michael Oher! The subject of The Blind Side finally has someone legitimate that needs his…blind side…protected in Jevan Snead. Sure, it’s year one of the Houston Nutt Oxford Era? But they have an offense and a defense of experience! Huzzah? Sure!

46. Mississippi State: Hey, did you know the African-American can coach college football? By the lack of black faces, you may not have noticed. But it’s true! And you know what else? They can take a small town in Mississippi and send them to Bowl Game excitement! I wonder why more Athletic Directors don’t consider going down this road?

27. South Carolina: I’m not too proud to be lazy, I’m going to crack wise on the comedy that is somebody with the last name of Smelley, especially when he plays for the Gamecocks. And during my time as a game show gadabout I asked for a smelley gamecock.

24. Tennessee: In a world with Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow, Knowshon Moreno, Matt Stafford, and even Michael Oher’s got some juice behind his name. It’s hard out there for an Arian Foster. He’s just a solid back from a school with a good pedigree. Maybe if he gets arrested, he’ll get the hype he needs

20. Alabama: The Saban is the devil. The Devil is a good recruiter. Julio Jones will be playing Sam to Nick Saban’s Ray Wise. All John Parker Wilson has to do is make a virgin sacrifice at the opening frat party where some white dude’s sporting Blackface. Yes, the one on Water Street.

13. Auburn: Can a system that allowed Troy to take down Brad Smith’s Mizzou or Zac Robinson’s Oklahoma State work in the big time? Auburn hired Tony Franklin to find out. It ruled for the Peach Bowl, but what happens when all the offensive players are new fish? That’s just intrigue.

7. LSU: Now, you and I love Glenn Dorsey. But here’s the thing. The Bayou Bengal’s D-Line may not lose the smooth now that Dorsey’s gone. Tyson Jackson’s a force, and Ricky Jean-Francois may be just one touch higher caliber than Glenn Dorsey. If they can avoid the shootout noid? They’ll be mighty.

6. Florida: Umm, is it all right if I go for the photo and move on? Percy Harvin’s awesome pass-catching skills say it is.

1. Georgia: If you want one off the Knowshon Moreno-Matt Stafford path? There is a sleeper of potential emergence, if you believe that freshman defenders only grow? Then you need to feat your eyes on Rennie Curran. If not? I heard that Knowshon’s got a good shot of getting the Heisman.

College Baseball Brackets

The baseball regionals were announced yesterday and 9/12 (75%) of the league will be playing postseason baseball. While the conference was not as strong this year as it has been in the past, LSU (#7) and Georgia (#8) both managed to secure National Seeds and seem to represent the best SEC chances to reach Omaha. The 9 teams in the tournament were far and away the most of any conference, but the 2 1-seeds was only half the ACC's 4. Get a copy of the bracket here.

Speaking of LSU, their current winning streak is absolutely ridiculous. For those not into college baseball, the Bayou Bengals have pieced together an unbelievable 20-game winning streak, and have not lost a game since April 19, when they dropped a game in Athens to fall to 6-11 in conference. After tying UGA 10-10 in 12 innings on April 20, they’ve won their midweek games and swept conference series from USC, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If they beat a 16-32 Texas Southern team, they’ll set a new conference record for consecutive wins.

Other SEC schools still playing:
Ole Miss: Headed to Coral Gables, FL as a #3 to be fed to the Miami Hurricanes
Kentucky: An 18-0 start turned into a #3 seed in Ann Arbor
South Carolina: I like the Gamecock’s chances in Raleigh
Arkansas: The Palo Alto Regional consists of #1 Stanford, #2 Pepperdine, #4UC-Davis, and the #3 Hogs. Losing that season-ending series to the last place MSU Bulldogs really put a damper on the season
Florida: Gators are visiting their good friends in Tallahassee in what should be a not-so-friendly atmosphere as the Noles’ p*nis envy tends to shine in matchups with the Gators
Alabama: The Tide head to an overlooked and underrated Coastal Carolina Regional that could get ugly
Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores have enough talent to play with anyone in the country. Tempe should be one of the most entertaining Regionals this year

Memorial Day Linkage

* Fox Sports has a good read up about the rivalry between Stafford and Tebow – who not surprisingly are the only SEC QBs listed in Rivals top 25 QBs in the country. You can argue until you’re blue in the face about which one is better, but the simple fact is each of them is perfect for the system they are in. No way Stafford could operate UF’s spread offense and no way Tebow thrives in a drop back, pro-style offense. Both figure to be in the spotlight all season long and their November 1 showdown – don’t call it a Cocktail Party – will undoubtedly be one of the biggest games of the regular season.

* At least someone’s being honest. Big East commissioner admits it: The BCS is about the almighty dollar, NOT what the fans want.

* I wish the media would leave Ryan Perrilloux alone and just let him disappear into obscurity in Jacksonville, AL. He’s a bad apple who just happens to be a remarkable athletic talent. It became obvious from the circus surrounding his recruitment that all Ryan Perrilloux cared about was Ryan Perrilloux. Now he’s taken the Herschel Walker way out, saying he’s been diagnosed with OCD, thus (apparently) giving him license to act like he did because he was restless. I don’t buy it for a second. Just because he wasn’t playing on gameday as much as Flynn and Russell doesn’t mean he wasn’t actively participating in drills at practice.

* Another testament to the strength of the SEC: 4 coaches rank among Rivals’ Top 10 College Football Coaches

* The good news for the Crimson Tide: Gee is officially coming back. The bad news: So is Mark Gottfried.

* CBS Sportsline rated the Hot Seat for all 120+ coaches in D1 football. By his estimation, the SEC coach on the hottest seat is Vandy’s Bobby Johnson. Vandy’s in for a rough season this year with so many key losses, but Johnson has had Vandy consistently competitive the last few seasons, which is more than previous coaches can say.

USC’s Spurrier is on the 2nd hottest seat in the conference, which makes more sense. The Gamecocks’ epic collapse last season was due in large part to key defensive injuries, but the USC brass didn’t bring Spurrier in to go to middling bowls. I don’t think they’d actually fire Spurrier, but I doubt that they’re especially pleased with the results he’s delivered so far in his tenure. If Stephen Garcia continues to run amok though, it will be interesting to see how the USC fans react if the Gamecocks finish 6-6 this season.

* Droopy-looking Pete Fiutak takes a crack at predicting all the bowls, including the BCS games for next season. So go ahead and book your hotel rooms.

* Thanks to anonymous reader for this one... NEPatriotsdraft.com lists 7 guys from the SEC as "Players to Watch" for the 2009 NFL Draft. No real surprises as it's Florida's Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Brandon Spikes, Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, Ole Miss' Michael Oher and LSU's Tyson Jackson.

* And for those of you into YouTube and pop culture phenomena, take a gander at Weezer's new video for "Pork and Beans"