BCS Championship Game Preview

(#1, #2)Florida (12-1) vs (#2, #1) Oklahoma (12-1)
BCS Championship Game
Miami, FL
January 8, 7:00 PM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: Florida 16-19, Oklahoma 24-16-1
Monday’s Line: Florida -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Oklahoma: 562.1 ypg, (3rd), 54.0 ppg (1st)
Florida: 442.4 ypg (17th), 45.2 ppg (3rd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Oklahoma: 359.1 ypg (63rd), 24.5 ppg (58th)
Florida: 279.3 ypg (7th), 12.8 ppg (4th)

Hard to really add to everything that’s already been said about this game all over the web and blogosphere. It’s 2 of the top programs in the country with 2 incredibly potent offenses battling it out on the biggest stage in college football. The anticipation of this game – at least for me – reminds me a lot of the classic USC/Texas game from 2006 Rose Bowl. The past 2 years, it’s been obvious who the winner would be before the games even started. Not so much this year.

Percy Harvin will play and says he’s at 90%, so take that for what it’s worth. When healthy, there’s not a team in the country who can handle the speed and versatility of the Gator offense, certainly not an OU defense ranked ~60 in total and scoring defense. The Gators will certainly have their hands full with Oklahoma’s offense, but if they can control the ball on offense and limit the time the ball’s in Bradford’s hands, they’ll be fine. That strategy worked to perfection for Ole Miss against the vaunted Texas Tech offense.

I do believe this will be a highly-entertaining game. I don’t believe it’ll be as high scoring as a lot of people think or hope for. Based on the recent past, it’s hard to pick against Urban Meyer or with Bob Stoops when it comes to BCS games. Given a month to prepare and heal, Florida should come on top of this one by a hair.

Florida 31, Oklahoma 28

Sugar Bowl Preview

(#4, #4)Alabama (12-1) vs (#7, #9) Utah (12-0)
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA
January 2, 7:00 PM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: Alabama 31-21-3, Utah 10-3
Monday’s Line: Alabama -9.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Utah: 403.6 ypg, (32nd), 37.4 ppg (15th)
Alabama: 367.2 ypg (56th), 31.2 ppg (30th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Utah: 295.9 ypg (17th), 17.3 ppg (12th)
Alabama: 256.9 ypg (3rd), 13.0 ppg (6th)

The Crimson tide will wrap up another memorable season in its long, storied history Friday night with its 13th appearance in the Sugar Bowl. They’ll take on an undefeated Utah Utes team that first crashed the BCS in 2005, spanking Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl.

Much of the news this week has focused on the suspension of All-America LT Andre Smith. The Outland Trophy award winner violated unspecified team rules and will miss the final game of the season, and possibly his career. This puts added pressure on QB John Parker Wilson to make smart, accurate throws to prevent the Utes from stacking the box to take away the Tide’s power running game.

Smith’s absence won’t affect the Tide’s defensive gameplan though. That’s where the Tide have excelled all season, ranking in the top 6 in both total defense and scoring defense. And while the Utes certainly present a new set of challenges, some of what they run is similar to Florida’s attack, just without Tebow at the helm. Utah senior QB Brian Johnson is certainly no slouch though, throwing for 2600+ yds and 24 TDs on the season.

There’s no doubt that Andre Smith will be missed, but his absence won’t be enough to derail the Tide. This Alabama team is too sound and too disciplined to have a hiccup against a team that is not more talented. Saban will have the Tide ready to play and the SEC will continue its BCS dominance.

Alabama 24, Utah 14

Liberty Bowl Preview

Kentucky (6-6) vs East Carolina (9-4)
Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN
January 2, 4:00 PM
All Time Series: Kentucky 1-0
All Time Bowl Records: Kentucky 7-5, East Carolina 8-6
Monday’s Line: East Carolina -3

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
East Carolina: 336.0 ypg (86th), 23.8 ppg (78th)
Kentucky: 298.4 ypg (105th), 22.4 ppg (87th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
East Carolina: 334.8 ypg (43rd), 20.8 ppg (31st)
Kentucky: 327.0 ypg (34th), 21.7 ppg (38th)

Friday’s Liberty Bowl will be just the 2nd meeting between these 2 schools all time, the other a 6-3 game in Lexington in 1993. With both teams sporting mediocre offenses and decent defenses, this game may not be too much higher scoring than that one was. Kentucky has lost 3 games in a row and 6 of 8 while ECU has 6 of 7, including knocking off Tulsa in the CUSA Championship game.

Kentucky will be playing this one without their starting QB, true freshman Randall Cobb. Cobb took over for Michael Hartline after the ‘Cats offense began to sputter in conference play. While Cobb was not spectacular, he did bring a level of excitement to the offense with his ability to tuck the ball and run. That dimension will be missed against a solid Pirates’ D.

After 2 weeks of football, the Pirates were the talk of the nation after knocking off West Virginia and Virginia tech to open the season. While they hit a rough patch – lost 3 in a row to NCSt, Houston, and Virginia, they’ve rallied nicely in the late season. QB Pinkney is steady – 2379 yards, 12/7 TD/INT ratio – particularly considering the ineptitude of the Pirates’ 84th ranked ground game.

The talk at the beginning of the season was about the UK D that only gave up a total of 22 points to its 4 non-conference foes. Once the SEC slate began – and the injuries mounted – the ‘Cats struggle on both sides of the ball, knocking off only Arkansas (in a miraculous Cobb-fueled comeback) and Mississippi State. East Carolina certainly has the momentum headed into this one.

When this one’s all said and done, the ‘Cat will just be too inept offensively to win this game. While it’s been a good story that this is only the 2nd UK team to play in 3 straight bowls, the simple fact is that they’re average at best on both sides of the ball. While the extra bowl practices this year will certainly pay dividends next season, it’ll be another bowl loss for the SEC this year.

East Carolina 17, Kentucky 13

Cotton Bowl Preview

(#20, #24)Ole Miss (8-4) vs (#8, #8)Texas Tech(11-1)
Cotton Bowl
Dallas, TX
January 2, 1:00 PM
All Time Series: Tied 2-2
All Time Bowl Records: Ole Miss 19-12, Texas Tech 10-20-1
Wednesday’s Line: Texas Tech -4.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Texas Tech: 536.2 ypg (4th), 44.6 ppg (4th)
Ole Miss: 398.4 ypg (37th), 30.8 ppg (32nd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Texas Tech: 371.6 ypg (72nd), 26.3 ppg (66th)
Ole Miss: 294.8 ypg (14th), 17.8 ppg (14th)

In what should be one of the best bowls of the season, streaking Ole Miss takes on potent Texas Tech in the final Cotton Bowl played at the fairgrounds in Dallas. It’s the 5th meeting between the 2 schools, and a homecoming of sorts for Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, a native Texan. Both teams enter the game hot as the Rebels have won 5 straight games and the Red Raiders are 11-1, though suffered a humbling blowout to Oklahoma.

If the Rebels are going to stay in this game, they’ll need to play the same kind of defense they’ve played over the last 4 games where they’ve given up just 20 points and pitched 2 shutouts. The defensive line – led by All-American Peria Jerry – has been unblockable. It will be a tough task though, as Texas Tech ranks 5th in the nation in protecting the QB, giving up just 11 sacks in 12 games. The Red Raiders also lead the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed (2.95 per game) while the Rebels lead the country in tackles for loss with 8.92 per game.

The majority of TTU’s yards come after the catch. QB Harrell throws a lot of quick, underneath passes and screens and lets his talented WRs do the rest. It will be a true test for the Ole Miss defensive front to disrupt Tech’s rhythm.

On the flip side, the Red Raiders will have their hands full stopping the Rebel attack. QB Snead has really come on in the second half of the season and the “Wild Rebel” has been an effective option for the Rebels as well. TTU hasn’t played against an offense like Ole Miss’ this year, so it will be interesting to see how they adjust.

If you want to stop Texas Tech, you’ve got to get pressure on Harrell. He’s shown to be average throwing the ball on the run. Outside of USC and Oklahoma, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more dominant defensive line in the country than the Rebels’. While the Ole Miss secondary is average at best, the front 7 will be able to get plenty of pressure and force TTU turnovers. Look for the Rebs’ remarkable turnaround season to be capped with an upset of the Red Raiders in Dallas.

Ole Miss 31, Texas Tech 30

Capital One Bowl Preview

(#16, #17)Georgia (9-3) vs (#19,#19)Michigan State (9-3)
Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL
January 1, 11:00 AM
All Time Series: Georgia 1-0
All Time Bowl Records: Georgia 24-16-3, Michigan State 7-11
Tueusday’s Line: Georgia -7.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Michigan State: 352.4 ypg (67th), 26.2 ppg (56th)
Georgia: 433.9ypg (20th), 32.1 ppg (29th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Michigan State: 357.9 ypg (61st), 21.9 ppg (40th)
Georgia: 318.3 ypg (28th), 25.6 ppg (63rd)

We’re 4 games into the SEC Bowl slate and finally a favorable matchup for the SEC. While Georgia certainly has fallen short of preseason expectations, this is still a remarkably talented team that’s capable of beating anyone in the country on any given day. Michigan State is a something of a surprise to be here, but rode workhorse RB Javon Ringer to an impressive 9-3 record, albeit in the Big10.

Nothing about this MSU team really jumps out at you besides Ringer, who’s rushed for nearly 1600 yds and 21 TDs. The defense is average and the passing game certainly leaves something to be desired. They’ve been beaten by a combined 94-25 against the other 2 ranked teams they’ve faced this year.

Sure, the ‘Dawgs run D was gouged for 409 yards last time out against Georgia Tech, but the Spartans feature a more basic, pro-style run game with Ringer. There’s a much smaller likelihood that the UGA defenders will repeatedly get caught so far out position play after play like they did against GTU. They’ll also know where the ball is going as Ringer has carried the ball close to 350 times this season already.

Despite the (lack of) effort against GTU, UGA still ranks in the top 40 rush defenses in the country, allowing 129.5 ypg on the ground. Before the GTU debacle, the Dawgs were allowing just over 100 ypg. They’ll bounce back with a solid effort against Ringer who’ll come nowhere near his self-described perfect game of “25 carries, 200 yards, 3 TDs, and win”. The only one of those stats he’ll approach will be the carries.

This Michigan State team is good, but certainly not great. If the ‘Dawgs show up to play, this one won’t be close. There’s too much offensive firepower for an average Sparty D to try and contend with and Ringer will struggle to consistently produce against the 8 and 9-man boxes he’ll be facing. This may or may not be the swan song for Stafford and Moreno in a UGA uniform, but they’ll end this season as big winners.

Georgia 34, Michigan State 17

Outback Bowl Preview

South Carolina (7-5) vs Iowa (8-4)
Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL
January 1, 10:00 AM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: South Carolina 4-9, Iowa 11-10-1
Tuesday’s Line: Iowa -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Iowa: 373.9 ypg (52nd), 30.3 ppg (34th)
South Carolina: 316.8 ypg (97th), 21.7 ppg (92nd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Iowa: 289.5 ypg (13th), 13.3 ppg (8th)
South Carolina: 288.9 ypg (12th), 20.3 ppg (30th)

Two teams headed in opposite directions clash Thursday morning in the 2009 Outback Bowl. The Gamecocks limp in to the game having lost 3 of 5 and mustering just 20 points the last two games. Iowa has won 5 of 6, including handing Penn State its only loss of the season. With both teams featuring stout defenses, this could be one of the harder-hitting, lower scoring games of the Bowl season.

South Carolina has enjoyed success in the Outback Bowl over the years, smacking down the hapless Buckeyes in both 2001 and 2002. Though Spurrier is just 7-7 in bowl games all time, he’s 4-1 against the Big 10, as he’s typically had the team speed that our neighbors to the North so sorely lack. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this year. While there’s certainly defensive talent and some speed at the WR position, inconsistent QB play combined with no running game landed the Gamecocks here instead of a big bowl.

Another blow for the Gamecocks is that they’ll be without their leading tackler and arguably their most important defender S Emmanuel Cook, who is academically ineligible for the game. With Iowa’s offense featuring (an undeserved) Doak Walker Award winner in Shonn Greene, Cook’s leadership and run-stuffing talents will be missed.

Iowa has been in every game it’s played this season, losing 4 games by a combined 12 points. While the running game has been consistent all season, the passing game has been steady lately as QB Ricky Stanzi threw for nearly 1000 yards and had an 8/3 TD/INT ratio over the last 6 weeks. He’ll certainly be tested against South Carolina’s 3rd rank pass defense, which gives up just passing 160.3 ypg, though that’s with Cook playing.

This is the third bowl game in a row to open bowl season where it’s just not a favorable matchup for the SEC team. The Gamecocks will struggle to maintain any sort of drives against Iowa’s stout defense, particularly with zero production from their RBs. While the SC defense should bottle up the Hawkeyes early, Iowa will continue to pound the ball and eventually Greene will break a big run.

I can’t find a legitimate reason to pick South Carolina to win this one. Aside from the season opener against NCSt and the offensive explosion in Oxford, this has been a mediocre team all season. The Gamecocks haven’t been able to do much on the ground all season, and it won’t magically start Thursday. While I don’t see the blowout or domination that many are predicting, I also don’t see the Gamecocks pulling the upset.

Iowa 17, South Carolina 13

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Preview

LSU (7-5) vs (#14, #14)Georgia Tech (9-3)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA
December 31, 6:30 PM
All Time Series: Georgia Tech 14-6
All Time Bowl Records: Boston College 22-14, Vanderbilt 20-18-1
Monday’s Line: Georgia Tech -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Georgia Tech: 377.2 ypg (46th), 26.2 ppg (56th)
LSU: 371.8 ypg (54th), 30.3 ppg (30.3)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Georgia Tech: 312.7 ypg (22nd), 18.8 ppg (22nd)
LSU: 326.5 ypg (33rd), 24.9 ppg (64th)

This is not exactly what LSU fans had in mind before the season began, wrapping up a disappointing season before the change of the year. On the other side of the field, not many predicted that Georgia Tech would rebound from its recent mediocrity to win 9 games running Paul Johnson’s triple option.

Despite stellar talent on both sides of the ball, offensive and defensive inconsistencies have plagued the Tigers all season. Their remarkable +20 turnover margin last season fell to -4 this year as well. All-SEC RB Charles Scott is a load on offense, but with no reliable passing game, his numbers have tailed off some in the second half of the season.

While LSU has struggled all season against the pass, they’ve stopped the run consistently all season. The Tigers currently rank 16th in the country, giving up just 105.67 rush ypg. GTU won’t be intimidated, as they just ran for 409 yards against a Georgia team that was giving up just over 100 ypg on the ground in the season finale. The Yellow Jackets feature the ACC Offensive Player of the Year in Jonathan Dwyer, who led the ACC with 110.7 ypg rushing and was 2nd with 13 TDs. He’s rushed for 100+ yds 9x this season, including 4 straight.

As it stands, these teams are somewhat similar in playing styles. Both feature a tough run defense, tough RBs, and QBS who’d just as soon hand off. LSU ranks 67th in the country with 204.5 passing ypg, while GTU comes in at #117 with a whopping 95 ypg. I expect that GTU will pass a bit more than normal this game to take advantage of LSU’s 81st ranked secondary.

This is still the defending national champion and there is still a lot of talent on the field. Unfortunately for LSU fans, they’re not playing well together as a unit. While I don’t think that the Jackets will run wild like they did against UGA, they’ll run enough to take advantage of LSU’s porous pass defense. The difference in this game will be the Yellow Jacket defense. With a one-dimensional offense, LSU will have trouble moving the ball against the Ramblin’ Wreck. This should be one of the best non-BCS games of the Bowl Season, but unfortunately, another where the SEC comes out the loser.

Georgia Tech 27, LSU 21

Music City Bowl Preview

Vanderbilt (6-6) vs (#24, NR)Boston College (9-4)
Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
December 31, 2:30 PM
All Time Series: Boston College 2-0
All Time Bowl Records: Boston College 13-6, Vanderbilt 1-1-1
Monday’s Line: Boston College -3.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Boston College: 318.9 ypg (94th), 25.5 ppg (61st)
Vanderbilt: 260.9 ypg (118th), 19.4 ppg (104th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Boston College: 273.4 ypg (6th), 18.5 ppg (18th)
Vanderbilt: 318.7 ypg (29th), 20.1 ppg (27th)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: No matter what happens Wednesday night in the Music City Bowl, it’s a remarkable accomplishment for this Vanderbilt team to have made it to a bowl game. With the losses from last year’s team, the consensus was that VU would bring up the rear of the SEC East, with College Football guru Phil Steele even predicting an 0-8 SEC slate.

Now for the reality: This Vanderbilt team was playing bad football at the end of the season. They enter Wednesday’s game with Boston College having lost 6 of 7 games, including a road game at woeful Mississippi State and an inexplicable home loss to Dook. Offensively, VU has struggled all season and this Eagle defensive unit is particularly stingy. They lead the country in interceptions with 26 and returned 5 for TDs, which is tied for best in the country. It will be very tough for the ‘Dores to generate any sort of consistent offense.

It’s a good thing for the Eagles their defense has been so tough, as the offense has been up and down as they searched for a replacement for QB Matt Ryan, who just led the ATL Falcons to an 11-5 record. The current starter is Dominique Davis who took over after a broken collarbone sidelined Chris Cane. BC has won 4 of 5, dropping a 30-12 game last time out to VaTech in the ACC Title Game.

The common logic is that the team that’s happier to be there will more often than not win the bowl game. Certainly the Commodores are thrilled to be in any bowl and the Eagles may be a little disappointed as they were one win away from an Orange Bowl bid. I just don’t see it though. All this BC program does is win bowl games, and they’ll do it again Tuesday afternoon.

Boston College 24, Vanderbilt 6

The Sporting News Rates the Bowls

The Sporting News has ranked the Bowl Games 1-34 and it’s a little different from Rivals' picks. Here’s how TSN sees the SEC games.

1. BCS Title Game
There’s major pressure on Florida’s young defense and Oklahoma’s banged-up group to make a handful of stops and force a turnover or two.

3. Cotton Bowl
A curious case here for erratic Tech, which could roll with 10 touchdowns or fold after a poor regular-season finish. Ole Miss, with road wins over Florida and LSU, won’t be intimidated by the Red Raiders.

10. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Nothing like Paul Johnson’s triple option in the background to ring in the new year.

13. Sugar Bowl
Smell a barnburner? You’re not alone.

15. Capital One Bowl
This might be the last go-around for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno at Georgia

22. Outback Bowl
The game’s a scout’s dream and a fan’s nightmare.

30. Liberty Bowl
Not much talent on the field for this one.

32. Music City Bowl
What time does Opryland close New Year’s Eve?

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Rivals ranks the SEC Bowl Games

Rivals has ranked the bowl games from 1-34 in terms of intrigue and interest. With 68 teams making the postseason these days, there are quite a few games that even alumni probably can’t get up for. Of the 8 SEC games, 5 rank pretty high (top 13). The other 3… not so much.

Here’s how Rivals sees it:

1. BCS National Championship Game, Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1):
It's for the national title, which makes it No. 1 on this list. The past two title games have been decided by a total of 41 points. That may be the number of points needed to win this one.

6. Sugar Bowl, Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0):
Utah has a lot to prove, despite its unbeaten record. Will Alabama suffer any kind of hangover from its SEC title game loss?

7. Capital One Bowl, Georgia (9-3) vs. Michigan State (9-3):
An intriguing Big Ten-SEC matchup. Michigan State can't pass, but TB Javon Ringer had a great season and Georgia's defense has had trouble against the run. And can Michigan State slow Georgia TB Knowshon Moreno? In their three losses, the Spartans' defense was run over.

9. Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1):
Ole Miss has a good front four, and if you can harass Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, he becomes an average quarterback. But only one team was really able to harass him this season. Watch Ole Miss junior DE Greg Hardy, who could declare for the draft. Hardy could make himself quite a bundle of money with a big game.

13. Chick-fil-A Bowl, Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5):
This basically is a home game for the Yellow Jackets, who will be playing a few miles from their campus in downtown Atlanta. LSU comes in having lost three of their past four. If the Tigers' defense doesn't awaken from its season-ending slumber, LSU is going to finish 7-6 one season after winning the national title.

22. Outback Bowl, Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5):
Iowa runs well but can't throw. South Carolina runs poorly and would like to throw but can't. At least both play good defense.

26. Music City, Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6):
Vanderbilt comes in having lost six of its past seven. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us. BC, by the way, holds the nation's longest current bowl winning streak, at eight games.

27. Liberty Bowl, East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6):
Kentucky comes in having lost three in a row, four of five and six of eight. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us.

While Chris Low (ESPN) doesn’t delve into all 34 games, he ranks the SEC games in that same order. From a neutral standpoint, that’s probably how I’d have to rank them as well. On a national scale, I think the Outback should be higher than the 22nd most interesting bowl, but I agree with its pecking order in the rank of SEC games.

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Updated Bowl Records over the last Decade

Ok... now does anyone actually believe that the Buckeyes were one of the best 2 teams in the country? I guess it was an improved performance over last year's game, but they still proved to be slow. Homer Herbstriet can spin all he wants, but THE Ohio State University had no business being in any BCS bowl, let alone the title game...

Anyway, here's an updated chart of all the overall records of the 6 BCS conferences - ACC, Big10, Big12, Big East, Pac-10, SEC - against each other in bowl games the last 10 years, as well as their all time BCS numbers.



When you look at the final bowl tallies (including BCS games)...
SEC: 44-30 (59.4%)
Big12: 33-32 (50.7%)
PAC10: 20-20 (50%)
BigEast: 19-18 (51.4%)
ACC: 24-28 (46.1%)
Big10: 28-38 (42.4%)

... then just the BCS records...
SEC: 11-4 (73.3%), 4 BCS Titles
PAC10: 8-4 (66.7%), 1 BCS Title
BigEast: 6-4 (60%), 1 BCS Title
Big10: 8-8 (50%), 1 BCS Title (pass interference? really?)
Big12: 6-8 (42.9%), 2 BCS Titles
ACC: 1-9 (10%), 1 BCS Title

...the answer is obvious no matter how you break down the stats. The SEC has been the dominant conference in college football over the last decade. Four national titles in 10 years is impressive, particularly as parity continues to reign. More importantly, there is nothing to indicate that the trend is tailing off. Georgia will certainly be a top 3 team before the start of next season, and a handful of other conference teams will have legitimate national title aspirations.

Bragging Rights: A Season Inside the SEC, College Football's Toughest Conference

A look at the BCS Championship Game

LSU (11-2, 6-2)
Ohio State University (11-1)
New Orleans, LA
Today’s Line: LSU -4

LSU Tiger Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 448.2 (3rd, 21st)
Offensive PPG: 38.7 (3rd, 12th)
Total Defense: 283.8 (1st,3rd)
Defensive PPG: 19.6 (2nd, 20th)

Ohio State Buckeye Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 397.1 (8th, 59th)
Offensive PPG: 32.0 (3rd, 36th)
Total Defense: 225.3 (1st, 1st)
Defensive PPG: 10.7 (1st, 1st)

It’s finally time to put a nightcap on this crazy football season and send it to bed. One final bowl game remains and it’s for all the marbles. The winner will be the first team to win a 2nd BCS Championship.

LSU has a clear advantage in that the game is being played in its backyard, much like their 2004 victory over Oklahoma. They’ll have the overwhelming majority of the crowd there and that could prove to be the deciding factor. Well, that, and the fact that the perennially overrated Buckeyes are 0-8 all-time against the SEC in bowl games. And the fact that no one Ohio State has played this year is as big, strong, fast, and talented as the Tigers. Sure the coach is a little nutty and doesn’t always take the safe way out, but the Magic 8Ball has one more good game left in it… right?

The Buckeyes will tell you they went 4-0 against ranked teams during the season. When examined a little closer though, only 1 of those teams – Wisconsin – finished the season ranked. They also lost to Illinois, which was the only other Big 10+1 to finish the season ranked. LSU, meanwhile, played 4 teams that finished ranked in the Top 25, so they’re much more battle tested. There’s also rested and healed – including stars Glen Dorsey and Early Doucet – so the Tigers will be playing with a full deck for the first time since the early season.

Look for LSU to control the line on both sides of the ball with their speed and quickness. Give the Buckeyes credit for getting back to the title game after losing Heisman winner Troy Smith last year, but take it all back for losing yet another bowl to the SEC.

Dead Guy sees:
LSU 17
tOSU 10

As an aside, even though this is the BCS Championship game, and the winner takes home the shiny trophy and gets a year of bragging rights, you’ll never convince me that either of these teams is the best in the country. Congratulations to whoever wins, but count your blessings there’s no playoff.

OU beatdown

Photo by Mr2Cents


While I really don't care about West Virginia football, I will almost always pull for anybody playing Oklahoma and the always overrated Bob Stoops. Back to back years now, OU has laid a giant egg in the Fiesta Bowl, getting manhandled by West Virginia last night and losing to WAC team last year. It was thoroughly enjoyable to see yet another Stoops team be woefully unprepared for a bowl and his inability to make in-game adjustments. The failed onside kick was pure comedy gold.

By the way, why does Bob Stoops keep his watch and wallet on a plate?
If he put them in a bowl, he'd lose them...

A look at the New Year's Day Bowls

As usual, life got in the way of blogging last night, so no in-depth preview of the 4 SEC Bowl games today. Here's a brief look at each...

Outback: Tennessee vs Wisconsin
Even without leading receiver Lucas Taylor, QB Erik Ainge should have enough weapons to exploit a Big10 defense. The speed of the SEC was very evident yesterday in Kentucky and Auburn's wins over ACC teams. It'll be more obvious against the Big10.

Dead Guy sees:
Tennessee 27
Wisconsin 17

Cotton: Arkansas vs Missouri
This is the only bowl game remaining that I originally picked the SEC to lose. The Hogs are without their coach (which may not be a bad thing considering his bowl record) and without a QB, but that's how they've played - and won - all year. Mizzou may be somewhat disappointed to not be in a BCS game, but they'll still have enough to get by the Hogs in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Dead Guy sees:
Missouri 35
Arkansas 33

Capital One: Florida vs Michigan
This will basically amount to home game for the Gators as they send Michigan coach Lloyd Carr off into the sunset. The Wolverines have done well historically against the SEC, but have not done well against the spread offense this year (see: State, Appalachian). Last I checked, Florida runs the spread fairly decently. While talent wise, the Gators look much better on paper, the Wolverines will play over their heads for their departing coach. It won't be enough though.

Dead Guy sees:
Florida 34
Michigan 28

Sugar: Georgia vs Hawaii
The Dawgs have been the SEC's best bowl team over the last decade, going 8-2 in 10 games. They'll have their hands full as they take on an explosive Hawai'i team led by Heisman finalist QB Colt Brennan. While the Rainbow Warriors will score a bunch of points, they will be woefully unprepared for aforementioned SEC speed. RB Moreno will have a huge game, and the Bulldogs will use this game as a springboard for a legitimate run at a national title in 2009.

Dead Guy sees:
Georgia 45
Hawai'i 31

A Look at the Chick-Fil-A Bowl

Auburn (8-4, 5-3)
Clemson University (9-3)
Atlanta, GA
Today’s Line: Clemson -2.5

AU Tiger Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 327.8 (10th, 101st)
Offensive PPG: 24.3 (9th, 82nd)
Total Defense: 298.3 (2nd, 8th)
Defensive PPG: 16.7 (1st, 6th)

CU Tiger Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 412.4 (2nd, 47th)
Offensive PPG: 34.2 (1st, 23rd)
Total Defense: 297.2 (2nd, 6th)
Defensive PPG: 18.3 (2nd, 10th)

Forget what ESPN tried to tell you about the Holiday Bowl being the best pre-New Year's Day bowl. This is it. Two fast, hard-hitting defenses will dominate this game between a pair of Tiger teams that were headed in opposite directions at the beginning of the season.

This isn't Tuberville's best Auburn team. Far from it. But, after dropping 2 of their first 3 games, Auburn is 7-2, with losses to LSU and UGA, both representing the SEC in BCS bowl games. The defense has been consistent all season, as evidenced by a Top 10 national ranking in both Total D and Defensive PPG. The offense - to put it nicely - hasn't. So Tuberville fired OC Al Borges and brought in Tony Franklin, who has instituted a no-huddle spread attack since bowl practice began.

It will interesting to see how Auburn responds to the new offense. Senior QB Cox is not known for his mobility, so FR QB Kodi Burns - a much better - athlete may see the field much more than usual in this game. One thing's for certain, the Auburn D will come ready to play.

This should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the year - before or after New Year's. While Clemson has gaudier stats, they are 0-2 against ranked teams this year, outscored 61-40 against BC and VTU. Auburn comes in ranked #22 and will have something to prove, particularly offensively. Look for AU's version of the Tigers to pull out a tough, close win.

Dead Guy sees:
Auburn 17
Clemson 13

A Look at the Music City Bowl

Kentucky(7-5, 3-5)
Colorado University (6-6)
Nashville, TN
Today’s Line: Kentucky -9

Wildcat Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 438.6(4th, 25th)
Offensive PPG: 36.7 (4th, 15th)
Total Defense: 390.3 (10th, 65th)
Defensive PPG: 29.8 (12th, 80th)

Seminole Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 360.0 (4th, 82nd)
Offensive PPG: 22.9 (8th, 90th)
Total Defense: 350.4 (8th, 36th)
Defensive PPG: 21.9 (7th, 31st)

What originally was shaping up to be a entertaining clash of offense vs defense has become a game that Kentucky should win handily now. Unless you've resided in a cave the past few weeks, you've heard that more than 30 Criminoles Seminoles are not playing in this game, because of injuries, grades, or cheating.

Even with 1/3 of the roster unavailable for this game, UK cannot afford to take it lightly. FSU HC Bobby Bowden is undefeated in December Bowl games, and is 20-7-1 in bowls for his career. While he may not have faced a situation exactly like this before, he'll do what he can to get the remaining players healthy.

That said, I had Kentucky penciled in as a winner in this game even before the cheating scandal became public knowledge. FSU struggled in a very weak ACC this year, and while Kentucky lost 5 games, they played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They're a battle-tested group of experienced players that can score points on anybody. Which is a good thing, because they haven't stopped many people this year on defense.

If they can get over playing in the Music City Bowl in consecutive years, they'll be bowl champions in consecutive years for the first time since 1950/51.

Dead Guys sees:
Kentucky 38
FSU 24

A look at the Independence Bowl

Alabama (6-6, 4-4)
Colorado University (6-6)
Shreveport, LA
Today’s Line: Alabama -3

Crimson Tide Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 372.6 (7th, 75th)
Offensive PPG: 26.8 (7th, 65th)
Total Defense: 341.2 (5th, 28th)
Defensive PPG: 21.8 (4th 29th)

Buffalo Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 377.0 (10th, 72nd)
Offensive PPG: 27.6 (10th, 63rd)
Total Defense: 389.4 (6th, 64th)
Defensive PPG: 29.3 (8th, 78th)

Everyone's heard the story. The Crimson Tide finished with the same record and wound up in the same bowl as they did last year. Last year it was Mike Shula's fault for being such a bad coach. This year it's Mike Shula's fault for being such a bad recruiter. And to make it worse, Tide fans will have to drive by this billboard on their way to Shreveport.

Alabama wasn't motivated for this game last season. They looked slow and disinterested in their 34-31 loss to Oklahoma State. It makes me wonder, if they couldn't get up for the game last year, what's their motivation to play better this time? On the other side of the field is a Buffalo team looking to officially announce it has recovered from the transgressions of Rick Neuheisal and Gary Barnett. Their HC Dan Hawkins has been around the block a time or two as well, having laid the majority of the foundation of the current Boise State program.

Alabama should win this game based on talent and coaching ability. But Colorado will win the game based on effort and motivation.

Dead Guy sees:
Colorado 34
Alabama 28

A look at the Liberty Bowl

Mississippi State (7-5, 4-4)
University of Central Florida (10-3)
Memphis, TN
Today’s Line: UCF -3

Bulldog Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 305.2 (12th, 112th)
Offensive PPG: 22.4 (10th, 93rd)
Total Defense: 341.2 (5th, 28th)
Defensive PPG: 24.8 (8th, 47th)

Knight Rankings: (Conference, Nationally)
Total Offense: 426.5 (4th, 32nd)
Offensive PPG: 38.4 (2nd, 13th)
Total Defense: 379.3 (3rd, 58th)
Defensive PPG: 27.8 (2nd, 65th)

Saturday’s Autozone Liberty Bowl kicks off the first of 9 bowl games for the SEC this season. The Bulldogs are making their first bowl appearance since the infamous Snow Bowl game when they defeated Texas A&M in a driving blizzard in Shreveport. The fans, players, and coaches are certainly excited to be in Memphis for the game, but the inexperience all around may serve as the undoing for MSU.

UCF head coach George O'Leary may not always tell the truth on his resume, but he’s a proven head coach who’s been to – and won – bowl games before. The Bulldogs were very fortunate this season in catching teams at the right time (Auburn, Kentucky) or getting to face certain teams at all (Gardner-Webb, Ole Miss). They certainly took advantage of the opportunities given to them, which is more than had done the previous years.

Unfortunately for Bulldog fans, they just don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Knights for 60 minutes. UCF RB Kevin Smith won’t break Barry Sanders record (he needs 181 yds, and that ain’t happening against MSU’s defense), but he will help the Knights control the clock and pound away at MSU. This game features two similar offenses in that each like to pound the ball with talented RBs while the QBS are relied upon to make short, smart throws to keep the opposing D honest. UCF just does it better than the Bulldogs do.

Dead Guy sees:
UCF 27
MSU 17

Big 12 Bowl History Over the Last Decade

***UPDATE: 1-8-08 I've created a master chart with all 6 BCS conferences and their bowl records against each others, including BCS games here. It's current as of last night's game.***

Okay, so we've already covered the SEC and Big 10 bowl records here and here, so here's the Big 12.

The cold hard facts pretty much toss the Big12 out of the "best conference" argument, as they're behind the SEC and Big 10 at least. Surprisingly, there's not a single team in the Big 12 that has been to a bowl game after each of the last 10 seasons. The SEC had 2 - Florida and Georgia - and the Big10 had Michigan, but no team from the Big12 can claim that consistency. Also, only 2 Big12 teams (Nebraska and Texas) have winning records in bowls in the last decade, while the SEC had 6 (UGA, LSU, AU, OM, USC, MSU) and the Big10 had 3 (tOSU, Wisc., PSU). The Big12 also has a losing record in BCS games (5-7), which drops them further behind the SEC and Big10 in accomplishments over the past decade.

Big 10 Bowl History Over the Last Decade

***UPDATE: 1-8-08 I've created a master chart with all 6 BCS conferences and their bowl records against each others, including BCS games here. It's current as of last night's game.***

I detailed the SEC's bowl records over the last decade in this post earlier in the week, but figured I'd look at the lesser conferences too. The Big10 is the conference that is most frequently paired up with the SEC, with 26 matchups in the last 10 seasons. The familiarity has helped contribute to the 13-13 record in those games. While the Big 10 has split those games with the SEC, their bowl resume as a whole is not as impressive as the SEC's.

* The Big 10 has won 48.5% of its bowl games the past decade, the SEC 56.7%
* The Big 10 has had 10 schools make a total of 66 bowls or an average of 6.6 each. The SEC has had 11 schools make 74 bowls or an average of 6.72 each.
* The Big 10 has 3 teams with winning bowl records over the last 10 years, the SEC has 6
* While the Big 10 has had two more participants in the BCS over the last decade, the SEC has more wins (SEC: 9-4, Big10: 8-7) and a significantly higher winning percentage (SEC: 69%, Big10: 53%).

And last, and quite possibly most importantly, Erin Andrews has her memories as a Dazzler while in the SEC...

... and memories of being groped by the Big 10. You tell me which is better...