Week 14 SEC Bowl Projections

* Nothing too earth shattering this week. Biggest change is that Mark Schlabach sees Alabama pulling (what will be in Vegas' eyes) the upset this weekend in Atlanta.

* At this stage of the season, Ole Miss is more deserving of the Capital One Bowl bid than Georgia is.

* So it looks like most think that Kentucky is going to get a chance to win its 3rd straight Music City Bowl after all. For that to happen, it would seem that both the Music City and Liberty Bowl rank Vanderbilt first on their preference lists and the Commodores opt to play in Memphis. Maybe I'm just wrong, but I can't imagine that the Music City Bowl is thrilled with a mediocre Kentucky team attempting to three-peat.

Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

* Nearly everyone is in agreement with their picks now. There's really not too much discussion left except for the 'Dores and 'Cats end up.

* That is, unless LSU lays another egg this weekend in Little Rock and winds up 7-5 and on a losing streak. If that happens and UK and Vanderbilt both win this weekend, the defending national champs could find themselves in the Liberty Bowl.

* Ole Miss' win over LSU all but punched their ticket to the Cotton Bowl. That's the good news. The bad news is that whichever Big12 team they draw - Mizzou, Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma - would be a prohibitive favorite over the Rebels.

* Florida and Alabama just have to survive upset attempts from their arch rivals to play in a de facto elimination game for the BCS Title game.

Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

Here's a look at this week's SEC Bowl projections from a panel of "experts".

* Apparently NBC's Cary Estes was projecting Auburn to knock off Georgia as the Tigers have disappeared off this list completely.

* Tennessee and Mississippi State are already guaranteed losing seasons. Arkansas and Auburn are both mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, but both teams would need major upsets to go their way.

* I know Alabama fans are upset that they're being slighted - #1 in the country and not predicted to reach the title game - but the simple fact of the matter is that the Gators are the best team in the country right now. Both teams just need to stay focus and avoid pitfalls between now and December 6th.

* Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt are all about equal in the eyes of the 5 pundits listed. I've talked about this before in previous threads, but I don't think the Music City Bowl would take Kentucky for a third straight year unless their hand is forced by circumstance. And I doubt the Wildcats players or fans would be too excited either.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (which chooses teams before the Music City Bowl) has the choice between a 7-5 Ole Miss team and a 7-5 Kentucky team, my guess is that they'd take UK to revitalize the CATlanta atmosphere so prevalent at the SEC Basketball tournament of years past. If Ole Miss knocks of LSU this weekend and finishes 8-4 and 2nd in the West though, the 'Cats may end up back in Nashville.

* Vanderbilt is in an interesting situation as the Music City Bowl is hosted (basically) just across the river from their campus. While the 'Dores certainly won't be picky about a bowl game after a 25 year drought, the coaching staff may prefer to travel to another city to be sure the players get the full bowl experience.

They could theoretically end up in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a win over UT this weekend and knocking off Wake Forest on the road next weekend. That would then send UK to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl and Ole Miss to Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

* UPDATED 11/18/08Mandel's picks are in from CNN/SI. Apparently, he thinks the Gamecocks are going to lose next weekend in Clemson, as he projects Ole Miss to take the Outback Bowl bid. While a Gamecock loss is certainly not out of the question, I'm not sure that would land Ole Miss in Tampa.

From the Bowl Tie-In Page on SECSports.com:

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.

In his scenario, the Cotton Bowl selects LSU, which would seem to imply the Tigers beat the Rebels this weekend. The Outback Bowl takes Ole Miss, which they'd be allowed to do since the Cotton Bowl had already taken an SEC West team. To me, it seems that if the Rebels beat LSU and MSU, they'd be more attractive to the Cotton Bowl than LSU would be. If they don't beat LSU, it seems the Gamecocks would be more attractive to the Outback Bowl than the Rebels unless they get blown out at Clemson next week. Neither scenario has the Rebels landing in the Outback Bowl.

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

My Thoughts:
* I added in Stewart Mandel's picks from CNN/SI, though his fall in line with majority consensus on every game.

* With Penn State's loss to Iowa, both Alabama and Florida control their own destiny to play in the BCS Title game. As long as neither slips up against their final 2 regular season opponents, the loser of the clash in Atlanta will receive a Sugar Bowl Bid as a consolation prize.

* Please disregard any posts I may have made in the past weeks stating that Tennessee would rally around Fulmer's departure and win out. What a horrid performance they put on Saturday.

* And if anyone knows how to reach Cary Estes, the contributing writer for NBC.com, I'd love to hear if he thinks Auburn is going to knock off Georgia or Alabama to get their 6th win and wrap up an Independence Bowl bid.

* At least to me, it doesn't make sense for Kentucky to end up in Nashville for a 3rd straight season. The Bowl-Tie-In page on the SEC's site says:

In selections 6-7, the AutoZone Liberty and Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowls will make their selections, not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office. The Bowls will rank available qualified teams in order of preference. If there are no similarities in the order of selection, the bowls will be granted its selection. If the bowls rank the same teams in preference, the team involved in the process would get its preference of which bowl to participate.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl selects Ole Miss over UK, that's going to leave the 'Cats and (supposedly) Vanderbilt left as the 6th and 7th bowl-eligible teams. Obviously the Liberty Bowl would rank Vanderbilt ahead of Kentucky, but would the Music City Bowl rank Kentucky ahead of Vanderbilt on its list of preferences? And even if they did, would Kentucky really opt to head to Nashville again?

* I'm still not convinced that Vanderbilt wins another game this season to wrap up that Liberty Bowl bid. They're stuck in a pressure cooker at this point and with a shaky defense and shakier offense, win #6 is looking tougher.

* I like Bruce Feldman. I really do. He and Chris Low are the best two college football writers espn.com has. But there's no way that the Capital One Bowl deems LSU the most attractive non-BCS-Bowl-bound SEC team. Sitting at 3-3, they're going to have to work just to finish with a winning conference record. Ole Miss and Arkansas are certainly capable of knocking them off. Georgia is far and away the more attractive option there, especially considering the woodshed beating laid on the Tigers in Tiger Stadium.

Week 11 SEC Bowl Projections

After a weekend of games that helped solidify the pecking order in the SEC, projections (for the most part) are starting to be a little more consistent.

My Thoughts:

* Despite being #1 in the country and the only undefeated team left in conference, no one's projecting Alabama to hang onto that spot and make it to the BCS Title Game. After Florida's performances the last 2 weeks, it's hard to blame them.

* Ole Miss is seemingly the hardest team for the pundits to get a read on. The 5 projections here have them going to 4 different bowls. No other team has more than 2.

* I tend to agree with CBS and Scout that Tennessee finds itself back in a bowl game to send Fulmer out. The remaining teams on Tennessee's schedule - Wyoming, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky - are certainly all winnable games.

* I also tend to agree with Scout that Vandy won't be bowling this year. Their 5-0 start was an aberration and a forgotten one at that. They've got 4 games left, but this weekend's beatdown by Florida may drain what little life the 'Dores have left.

* Give credit to Petrino and the Hogs for turning around what was certainly a disastrous start to the SEC season, but I don't see them beating LSU or South Carolina, one of which they'll have to do to play in a bowl.

* Would the Music City Bowl really want Kentucky again? They're already the 2-time defending Music City Bowl Champs? Isn't that enough?

* Apparently they feel that if the Independence Bowl can't have Alabama, they don't want any SEC team. Only 1 projection for the Indy Bowl, and it's for Arkansas, which I just don't see happening.

Bowl Projections, Week 10

The most notable change is that only CBS has an SEC team in the BCS Title game. Two weeks ago, all 5 “experts” had either the Tide or the Gators playing for this year’s MNC. With PSU’s win in Columbus over the Buckeyes Saturday though, many feel that JoePa will make it back to a national title game. PSU certainly has the inside track now as the Big10 not only sucks, but has no championship game.

Most still feel that the SEC will get 10 teams in bowls, but I just don’t see it. Either Vanderbilt or Kentucky will go bowling, but not both.

• Kentucky needs just 1 win, but their remaining schedule and current injury situation doesn’t set up well for them. They play road games against weaker SEC teams in Starkville and Knoxville, but can you honestly say that UK is going to win either of those? They’ve got home dates with UGA and Vandy left. The UGA game won’t be close. The Vandy game seems to present the ‘Cats with the best chance to lock up a bowl bid.

• Vandy also needs just 1 win for eligibility, but it’s going to be tough. Kentucky seems to be their best shot at a win. Florida won’t be close. They host UT, but the Vols are too physical a team for the ‘Dores to handle, particularly now that their luck seems to have run dry. They close the season at Wake Forest, but the Deacons are a well-disciplined team who don’t turn the ball over much. VU will struggle in Winston-Salem.

• As poorly as they've played lately, I still feel Tennessee will end up in a low-level bowl. They need to finish 3-1... well 3-0 after they get beat in Columbia this weekend. Starting next weekend, they close with Wyoming, @ Vandy, and Kentucky. None of those teams are very good. It may not be enough to save Fulmer's job, but it will be a strong finish to the season.

• Auburn is 4-4 and still needs 2 wins. They’re possibly fighting for bowl eligibility this weekend in Oxford as 2 of their remaining games are against Georgia and Alabama. They’ve got a gimme against UT-Martin, but if they slip up in Oxford Saturday, they Tigers may be home for the holidays.

• I tend to think Ole Miss is fairly safe. They’re just 4-4 – like Auburn – but have games against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State left on the schedule in addition to Saturday’s Auburn game and a trip to Baton Rouge. They should be able to split those 4.

Week 7 SEC Bowl Projections

We're at about the midpoint of the season, so at least semi-intelligent conversations about bowl games can be had. Below is a consolidated chart of 5 opinions about where the conference teams are going this holiday season.



All 5 agree that the SEC will get 10 teams in post season play, though they're not in agreement as to whether team 10 is Tennessee or Arkansas. Of those 2, Tennessee seems to have the better shot as their schedule is a little easier than the Razorbacks' is. At least at this point, everyone's in agreement that Alabama and Florida will be the SEC's 2 BCS game representatives, though I'm sure Georgia fans believe they have something to say about that.

The four people projecting Alabama in the BCS Title Game obviously have the Tide winning the SEC Championship game first. I wonder if they see Georgia winning the East then losing a second time to the Tide in Atlanta and that's how the Gators make it to the Sugar Bowl. It would be the same situation as Missouri was in last year - losing to OU in the Big12 Title Game, then watching as Kansas got invited to the Orange Bowl.

Also, I'm not convinced 10 teams will finish with 6 wins. While it's certainly no guarantee that either Arkansas or Tennessee will, don't forget how bad Auburn has looked in recent weeks. They need 2 more wins and other than a home game with UT-Martin, they probably won't be favored again this year. They play @WVU, @Ole Miss, vs UGA, and @Alabama.