Thursday, November 13, 2008

Random Bits

* There were 4 SEC baseball stadiums named to Rivals Top 10 list, though it may not be the ones you thought it would be. The site offers this disclaimer:

LSU and South Carolina were omitted from our list because both schools have ballparks that still are under construction.
As for the ones that did make the list:

Baum Stadium – Arkansas
Baum Stadium is the palace of college baseball stadiums. Though many schools now are building new stadiums, they still are playing catch up with the Razorbacks. When Baum Stadium was erected in 1996, it was the class of college baseball. Not much has changed, as the capacity currently is 10,500 and luxury suites extend from the left-field foul pole to the right-field foul pole. Arkansas fans also pack the house rain or shine and provide a premier home-field advantage for their baseball program. Everyone aspires to have a facility like the University of Arkansas.

Polk-Dement Stadium -- Mississippi State
No school blows out a postseason party in a regional or super regional quite like Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs struggle to fill the stands until the weather warms up, Polk-Dement Stadium is an excellent venue to watch a game. In addition to a roomy grandstand, the Bulldogs also have what is called the "Left-Field Lounge", where patrons line the outfield wall with barbeque pits, coolers and whatever else they can get in their possession. The official capacity for the stadium, including outfield seating, is 15,000. Those that watched the Starkville super regional two seasons ago know exactly what the Bulldogs are about at Polk-Dement Stadium.

Oxford-University Stadium -- Ole Miss
Ole Miss has one of the hidden gems in college baseball. Though observers in the Southeastern part of the country know about the great atmosphere at Oxford-University Stadium, people nationally just now are getting a taste of what the Rebels are about. O-U Stadium holds about 3,500 spectators in the main grandstand, but thousands of fans often line the grassy areas down the left and right field lines and the outfield. In 2005, a record 10,119 fans were in attendance as the Rebels played Alabama. Ole Miss currently is in the midst of a renovation campaign that will increase grandstand seating.

Plainsman Park – Auburn
When the Tigers decided to renovate their facility in 1996, many schools, including Baylor, took notice of the project. Plainsman Park is one of the nation's best stadiums and has a wonderful façade to go with a cozy atmosphere. Plainsman Park has a capacity of 4,096 fans. However, the record attendance for a single-game was set in 2002, as 4,715 fans packed the stadium to watch Auburn play LSU. Recently, the Tigers have installed a new drainage system for the playing surface and a state-of-the-art strength and rehabilitation center. Auburn certainly is a trendsetter.

* ESPN has their first Bracketology up for the 2008-09 season and Lunardi projects just 5 SEC teams to dance this year:

Florida (2-seed)
Tennessee (4-seed)
Kentucky (8-seed)
Alabama (11-seed)
LSU (13-seed)

I’ll throw out that Ole Miss will make the tournament in the form of an 8-10 seed as well. They’ve been on the bubble the last two seasons and will pull it through this year. Lunardi projected them back in April in his first post-tourney Bracketology listing, so I’m not sure why they dropped.

Hard to believe the season kicks off in earnest this weekend. I’ll get a preview up sometime next week.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Week 12 Picks

Saturday
(#13,#12)Georgia (8-2, 5-2) @ Auburn (5-5, 2-4)
11: 30 CST, Raycom
All-Time Series: Auburn 53-50-8
Wednesday's Line: Georgia – 8.5


It's the South's oldest rivalry and one of the best. Through 111 games, Auburn has outscored Georgia by a mere 45 points. It's the 18th straight time that one or both schools have been ranked when the game was played and – surprisingly – the lower ranked or unranked squad has won 7 of the last 12 years. Georgia has won consecutive blowout games.

The Tigers paltry O struggled again last week against Tennessee-Martin until Kodi Burns realized he was faster than everyone else out there and ran wild. As bad as the 'Dawgs D has been the last 3 weeks, no way they lose containment on Burns as consistently as the Skyhawks did. In the SEC, only Arkansas has allowed more TDs than Georgia has this year. On the flip side of that, only MSU and UT have scored fewer TDs than Auburn.

Despite all of Auburn's troubles this year, this is not going to be an easy game for the 'Dawgs. Tuberville is at his best when his back is against the wall, though this year, the talent differential between the two schools is deep a chasm to void. If Georgia's big 3 show up to play, the Tigers just don't have the firepower to keep up. Look for an inspired effort by the Tigers early, but too much Stafford and Moreno in the second half. 'Dawgs by 10.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Louisiana-Monroe (3-7) @ Ole Miss (5-4, 3-3)
1:00 CST
All-Time Series: Ole Miss 2-0
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -21


Ole Miss looks to become bowl-eligible this weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. The rebels are the 3rd SEC West the ULM Warhawks will have played this year, having dropped a 34-0 game to Auburn in the season opener and basically choking away a 28-27 game the next week to Arkansas. Ole Miss has outscored ULM 80-17 in the 2 previous meetings.

Assuming the Rebels learned from Alabama's overlooking of ULM last year, this one won't be close. The Rebels have too much firepower on offense to stumble here. Even if the turnover bug comes back, they should have enough to get the win. The Grove will be rocking as the Rebels clinch a postseason berth for the first time since Archie's youngest graduated in 2003, but no way I'm giving up 3 TDs to a team as schitzo as Ole Miss.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Louisiana-Monroe

(#24,#23)South Carolina (7-3, 4-3) @ (#4,#3)Florida (8-1, 6-1)
2:30 CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 21-4-3
Wednesday's Line: Florida -21


The Ole Ball Coach heads back to his old stomping grounds Saturday as the red hot Gamecocks take on the even hotter Gators. The Gamecocks have bounced back from a rocky start to put themselves in a position for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Gators have bounced back from a loss at home to Ole Miss and are playing perhaps the nest football in the entire country.

This will be the sternest test the Gators will have faced since their loss to Ole Miss. While Georgia came out and laid an egg in Jacksonville, Spurrier will make sure that doesn't happen here. A win in the Swamp, and his Gamecocks would like take the Capital One Bowl bid away from Georgia. Unfortunately for him, that just won't happen this weekend. Tebows apology and proclamations were internet fodder for many a joke, but he and the Gators have backed them up with their recent stellar play. The Gators win this on, but 3 TDs is too much.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Mississippi State (3-6, 1-4) @ (#1, #1)Alabama (10-0, 6-0)
6:45 CST, ESPN
All-Time Series: Alabama 71-18-3
Wednesday's Line: Alabama –20.5


Though Alabama has owned this series through the years, they've dropped two in a row to the Bulldogs. Even more remarkable is the fact that it's been 3 seasons since Alabama scored an offensive TD against the Bulldogs. Over the last 3 years, the Tide has managed 8 FGs and 3 defensive TDs against MSU and are 1-2.

John Parker Wilson has single-handedly choked this game away the last two seasons. He's a combined 35/73 (48%) for just 308 yds with 0 TDs and 4 INTs. While you never know what you're going to get from JPW, this Tide team has been too steady and consistent all season long to drop a game like this to a team like Mississippi State. Sure it's a fun story that's been beaten into the ground that for 2 straight years, Croom has beaten his alma mater who wouldn't hire him, but that will long forgotten on Saturday.

Frankly, unless JPW throws the ball directly to Pegues or any other of MSU's defenders, I don't know how the Bulldogs are going to score in this game. Alabama will do what they do and MSU won't be able to stop them or to score on them. The only question will be if the Tide will stay focused long enough to cover 3 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Troy (6-3) @ (#19, #20)LSU (6-3, 3-3)
7:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: LSU 1-0
Wednesday's Line: LSU – 18.5


This is the Hurricane Gustav make-up game from earlier in the season. It's just the 2nd meeting between these schools and LSU had to rally very late to eke by Troy 24-20 in 2004. The Tigers are 32-0 against Sun Belt teams.

This won't be close. It's a night game at Tiger Stadium and Troy is not one of the 3 best teams in the SEC, which are the only teams the Tigers have fallen to. There will be some emotional hangover from last week's disappointment, but it won't last long. Troy is a very good offensive team and – if taken lightly – will pose a real threat for an upset. With a big conference game next week against Ole Miss, this is a definite trap game situation, but no way the Tigers drop this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Troy

Vanderbilt (5-4, 2-4) @ Kentucky (6-4, 2-4)
7:00 CST, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Kentucky 39-37-4
Wednesday's Line: Kentucky -4


While it doesn't have the marquee schools or the star power of the other games this weekend, this is the most important game of the weekend in terms of conference standings. It's been a close series throughout its history with 33 of the 80 games (41%) decided by a TD or less.

Kentucky has found new life on offense since inserting stud freshman Randall Cobb in as starting QB. They knocked off MSU on the road (which Vanderbilt failed to do) and went toe-to-toe with UGA for 58 minutes before falling on one of the plays of the year in college football. Meanwhile, Vandy is headed in the opposite direction, dropping 4 straight. The Commodores haven't scored more than 14 points in 5 straight games.

The 'Cats have been playing most superior opponents close, dropping close ones to UGA, South Carolina, and Alabama. They're also winning the games they're supposed to, and this game qualifies in that category. The 'Cats will continue to play smart on offense and the defense - though it's struggled a bit lately - will find that Vandy's anemic offense is just the cure for its ails.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

Week 11 SEC Power Poll

Changes at the top and bottom of the poll with the creamy filling in the middle staying basically the same. After yet another conference blowout, Florida has wrested the top spot away from the undefeated and #1 nationally Crimson Tide. And after another humiliating defeat, Tennessee fell behind MSU for worst of the SEC. For all the insight you just can't get anywhere else, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

A Decided Schematic Advantage

It’s been a while since I ranted a bit about Fat Charlie and his Pathetic Irish, but after reading Senator Blutarsky's take on this, I figured it was time to pull one together. The one sentence that should incent any college football fan is this:

If Notre Dame beats Navy and Syracuse and loses, as expected, to USC on the road, the Irish will finish 7-5. That should be good enough for them to earn an invitation to the Cotton Bowl, Gator Bowl or Sun Bowl…
First of all, no way the Cotton Bowl selects a 7-5 Notre Dame team over LSU or Ole Miss or any other SEC team. The point is most likely moot as the Gator Bowl would surely jump at the chance to bring Fat Charlie to Jacksonville.

Secondly, I just don't get why people are still obsessed with Notre Dame. They haven’t won a bowl game since 1993. They haven’t been competitive in a bowl game since 1998. They're a whopping 5-4 this season playing almost exclusively with the players Weis has brought in, though I'm sure it's somehow still Tyrone Willingham's fault the Irish suck again this season. Despite all that, the Irish are on TV every weekend, and actually have special exceptions written into some bowl contracts, including the BCS games.

In his tenure at Notre Dame, he has exactly one win that you can look back and point at and say, “Nice win there coach” and that’s the 41-17 beatdown of Penn State in 2006 when the Nittany Lions finished 9-4. Other than a win over a 7-5 Michigan in 2005, there’s hardly a win worth mentioning. To put a little more perspective on it, Pat Forde has this to say in his latest Forde Yard Dash:
After once again playing piñata for mighty Boston College, Weis is now 1-16 in his past 17 games against teams that finished the season .500 or better -- or, in the case of 2008 opponents, currently are .500 or better. That lone point of pride in those 17 games: a seven-point win last month over Stanford, which presently is 5-5 but easily could end up 5-7 and wipe that victory off the books.
Greg Couch of the Chicago Sun-Times references that same PSU victory in 2006 as Weis' only accomplishment at Notre Dame and also offers these gems:
...the most-hyped coach in college football history has been one big failure. Never has so much hope and hype been built from hot air. But when you sell yourself on spec, as Weis did, sooner or later, the finished product comes in.

Under Weis, Notre Dame has never beaten a good team.

In the Sagarin computer national rankings, Notre Dame is ranked behind James Madison.
Let’s take a closer look at Notre Dame’s offensive numbers from last year, the 3rd year that the Fighting Irish had their Decided Schematic Advantage over everyone they played:

2007 Notre Dame:
Scoring Offense: 16.4 ppg
Total Offense: 242.3 ypg
Passing Offense: 167.0 ypg
Rushing Yards: 75.25 ypg

For those of you struggling to grasp how pathetic those numbers, here’s how they compare to the 2008 Tennessee team:

2008 Tennessee:
Scoring Offense: 16.0 ppg
Total Offense: 267.1 ypg
Passing Offense: 162.8 ypg
Rushing Yards: 104.3 ypg

So, the offensive genius designed an offense that managed 25 less yards per game than the Vols are averaging this year. The Irish aerial attack last year did manage to put up nearly 5 more passing yards per game than the current Jonathan Crompton/Nick Stephens debacle in Knoxville this season. And the Vols are doing this against (mostly) SEC defenses, while the Irish played the Service Academies and mid-tier Big 10 teams.

***Update: Another stellar column from Jason Whitlock***

For those of you who are interested in joining the millions of "Huge Notre Dame Fans" out there, please refer to the following flow chart: