We're at about the midpoint of the season, so at least semi-intelligent conversations about bowl games can be had. Below is a consolidated chart of 5 opinions about where the conference teams are going this holiday season.
All 5 agree that the SEC will get 10 teams in post season play, though they're not in agreement as to whether team 10 is Tennessee or Arkansas. Of those 2, Tennessee seems to have the better shot as their schedule is a little easier than the Razorbacks' is. At least at this point, everyone's in agreement that Alabama and Florida will be the SEC's 2 BCS game representatives, though I'm sure Georgia fans believe they have something to say about that.
The four people projecting Alabama in the BCS Title Game obviously have the Tide winning the SEC Championship game first. I wonder if they see Georgia winning the East then losing a second time to the Tide in Atlanta and that's how the Gators make it to the Sugar Bowl. It would be the same situation as Missouri was in last year - losing to OU in the Big12 Title Game, then watching as Kansas got invited to the Orange Bowl.
Also, I'm not convinced 10 teams will finish with 6 wins. While it's certainly no guarantee that either Arkansas or Tennessee will, don't forget how bad Auburn has looked in recent weeks. They need 2 more wins and other than a home game with UT-Martin, they probably won't be favored again this year. They play @WVU, @Ole Miss, vs UGA, and @Alabama.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Week 7 SEC Bowl Projections
Monday, October 13, 2008
Week 7 Grades
Florida: A+
This one was over before it even started. The floodgates opened early for the Gators and they buried LSU in the first quarter before cruising to a resounding victory. Reestablished themselves as the favorite in the East.
Mississippi State: A
Congratulations to MSU for being the first team all season to hold onto the ball against Vanderbilt. The offensive numbers weren’t great – less than 250 total yds – but the Bulldogs had 0 turnovers and forced 2 Commodore turnovers. It never hurts to hold you opponent to 107 total yards.
Arkansas: A-
Arkansas’ defense has been bad all season, but got just the cure in Auburn’s impotent “offense”. What was more surprising was the way the Hogs carved up the Tigers normally reliable defense. Without a few miscues – particularly on Special Teams – this game wouldn’t have been close.
Georgia: B
After the last two games against the Vols, the ‘Dawgs will take any win they can get, but this one wasn’t easy. They dominated the stats – 458-209 total yards, 29-10 FD, 42:04-17:56 TOP – but managed only 6 2nd half points and led by only 6 at the start of the 4th quarter. The 11:00 minute FG drive was a back breaker for the Vols.
South Carolina: B
Maybe this was officially the beginning of the Stephen Garcia era. He added a new dimension the ‘Cocks’ offense. The 4 turnovers is way too many though. Big play in Special Teams was a big life in an otherwise stagnant first half for SC.
Kentucky: C
The ‘Cats again played fairly well, but were outmanned by the Gamecocks. Their defense had no answer for Stephen Garcia, though it did force 4 turnovers. Special Teams breakdown on FG attempt was huge and ended up providing the difference in the game. Didn’t have a single run of longer than 9 yds and ended up with less than 220 total yds.
Tennessee: C
Once again, the Vols D played well – at times – and actually had the Vols down only 6 at the beginning of the 4th. Eventually though, they just couldn’t get off the field. Not that the offense did that much when they were on the field. Stephens again showed signs of life under center, but 1 rushing yd is inexcusable.
Vanderbilt: D+
Met its match against a well-disciplined MSU team that didn’t give Vandy the game. VU mustered only 107 yds of offense against the Bulldogs. The Defense was good – holding MSU to 247 yds – but it wasn’t enough. Offense was forced to deal with a full football field most of the day and that spelled trouble.
LSU:D
Walked into a buzzsaw in the Swamp and just got obliterated. Lee looked shaky under center. Thought they were making a move with bookend TD drives around halftime, but then more of the same. This may help them in the long run, but for now… yikes.
Auburn: F
How much explanation does this one really need? Their offensive struggles are old hat now, but their defense gave up more than 400 yds to an Arkansas team that was averaging just over 300 yds. Made some nice plays on special teams or they would have gotten an “I” for incomplete.
SEC Power Poll Roundtable #2 Responses
Right now, I’ve gotta say it’s going to be Florida and LSU in Atlanta in early December, which is different than the Auburn/Florida matchup I saw in the preseason.
In the Eastern Division, Vanderbilt sits atop the standings now, but I don’t see any chance they’re there at the end of the season. Florida seems to have righted their ship with a resounding victory over LSU Saturday night. Georgia is certainly not out of the mix, but they’ve been less than impressive in consecutive games against Alabama nad Tennessee. South Carolina already has 3 conference losses. Kentucky is in the early stages of a losing streak. Tennessee sucks.
In the Western Division, I didn’t expect the Tony Franklin experiment to run like a well-oiled machine this season, but I certainly didn’t expect the disaster that has been the 2008 Auburn offense. LSU seems to have barely missed a beat from last season and are thriving without Ryan Perrilloux’s antics. It’s obvious that Mississippi State and Arkansas would struggle to win the Sun Belt this year and Ole Miss just doesn’t have the horses this year. The West will comedown to the mid-November showdown between Alabama and LSU, but at this point, I give that edge to LSU.
If your team has Vanderbilt coming up at some point on its schedule, are you worried? If not, which team should be the most worried?
Any team that plays Vanderbilt should be worried, but if I’m Phil Fulmer I’m petrified. The natives are growing restless in Knoxville as the Vols have been anemic on offense all season long. The Commodores are not a powerhouse themselves, but are as opportunistic a team as there’s been in several years. They lead the country in turnover margin and capitalize on the short fields their opponents give them.
Holding onto the ball has not been the Vols’ strong point this season. As they’ve lost it 10 times already. Mississippi State beat the Dores by not beating themselves. If you can force Vanderbilt to drive the field to score, you’re in very good shape as VU still ranks last in the conference in total offense by a long shot.
If the Vols were to lose that game to Vanderbilt, it would – in all likelihood – wrap up a losing season for UT. That would not be good for Fulmer’s job security, what little there is left.
Other than perhaps Alabama's season-opening win over Clemson, the SEC doesn't really have any marquee non-conference wins thus far, and a couple of traditional powers (Auburn and Tennessee) are struggling in high-profile fashion. Is it too early to call this a "down year" for the conference?
That depends completely on your definition of the word “down”. The SEC is not as strong as it was last year, which was certainly one of the most impressive bodies of work in recent memory. As usual, the SEC lost a lot to the NFL draft and that’s taken its toll on the league offensively this year. There’s yet to be that 3rd QB to step up as a reliable option behind Stafford and Tebow. JPW and Jevan Snead have both shown signs, but Snead is a turnover waiting to happen and JPW will follow up a 250 yd game with a 75 yd game.
Defensively, the SEC is as strong as ever. The numbers will be somewhat inflated this year because of the stagnant offenses, but come bowl season, the defenses and team speed will again shine through.
It’s a testament to the standards of SEC fans to talk about this year as a potential “down year”. As of Week 7, the SEC has 2 teams in the AP Top5, 3 in the Top10, and 5 in the top 25. Only the Big 12 has more with 6.
So sure, go ahead and call it a “down year” for the SEC if you must, but don’t call it a bad one. A couple of high profile programs are immersed in a season of FAIL, but Vanderbilt nearly cracked the Top 10 and Ole Miss has already matched its win total from last year, so there are positives as well. I fully expect another success bowl season this year as well.
My SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 7
1. Alabama
With wins over Clemson and Georgia, the Tide has accomplished more than Texas has this season and should be the #1 team in the country, not just the SEC.
2. Florida
I have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as Tebow did against LSU. And I’ve never seen someone push the rest of the team as hard as Tebow pushed everybody against LSU.
3. Georgia
Got a much needed win against Tennessee, but didn’t make it look easy. Will need to play better as UT was last gimme on the schedule.
4. LSU
The wheels came off for LSU early in the Swamp and they never recovered. Still control their own destiny in West, but have to bounce back from this one.
5. South Carolina
Second straight road conference win puts Gamecocks back in favorable position, but must face an angry LSU team this weekend.
6. Vanderbilt
Statistics finally caught up to the ‘Dores last weekend. With meat of schedule coming up, 5-0 could very quickly turn into 6-6.
7. Kentucky
One step ahead of Vanderbilt when it comes to returning to reality. Need to beat Arkansas this weekend to keep bowl hopes alive.
8. Ole Miss
Had an extra weekend to prepare for trip to Alabama this weekend. Nutt will need to work his motivational magic if the Rebels are going to pull that one off.
9. Mississippi State
Good win for the Bulldogs Saturday. The offense held on to the ball and the defense held Vandy to basically nothing. Laid the successful blueprint for Vandy – Don’t beat yourself.
10. Arkansas
Dealt Auburn fans (and Tuberville) as painful a loss as they could imagine. Not surprisingly, the defense held AU in check, but the offensive numbers Arkansas put up were astonishing.
11. Auburn
Spiraling out of control. Ensminger in a very uncomfortable position, like the backseat of a Volkswagen.
12. Tennessee
Kept the game with UGA much closer than it should have been, but as only team in league without a BCS win, the Vols are now the official cellar-dwellers.
