My Week 6 SEC Power Poll Ballot

Week 6 has come and gone and the Tide still sit atop the standings. This weekend's Kentucky/South Carolina game will really help sort those two out.

1. Alabama – The Tide hold on to the top spot despite a subpar performance this past weekend. Got the job done, but much closer than it should’ve been.
2. LSU – We’ll know a lot more about the Bayou Bengals this weekend after a tussle with Florida. For now though, no reason to not rank the defending national champs #2 in conference.
3. Georgia – World’s largest hobnail boot expected to be sighted between the hedges in Athens at this weekend’s game against Tennessee.
4. Florida – A week off to lick their wounds and try to get a consistent offense going. Something seems amiss among the Gators.
5. Vanderbilt – Call me a cynic, but I’m still not convinced the ‘Dores are that great. You can’t argue with 5-0, 3-0 in conference though.
6. Kentucky – Good effort for the last 3 quarters in the Cats’ first real game since August. Like Vanderbilt, not sure where to rank them. Saturday’s game against SC will help.
7. South Carolina – Not sure where that QB play came from, but the #5 spot is theirs the taking if it continues. Offensive line did a great job nullifying the OM pass rush.
8. Ole Miss – Note to Rebels: Turnovers kill. Ole Miss could be 5-1 or even 6-0 if not for consistently shooting themselves in the collective foot.
9. Auburn – I know Tuberville says he’s not panicking, but his players and staff aren’t figuring anything out. Auburn is just ugly on offense.
10. Tennessee – Think Cutcliffe is missed? A 4-point win over a bad MAC team has given Vols fans new hope for the season because the new QB threw for 156 yds.
11. Mississippi State – The defense enjoyed their off weekend. The offense has taken every weekend off since August 30.
12. Arkansas – Last week, the defense scored a TD. This time, it was the offense. If they could ever put it together for one game, they’d only lose by 20.

Week 6 Grades

South Carolina: A
This is how Gamecock fans have been waiting to see a Spurrier-coached SC team play. Out of nowhere, QB Smelley throws for 330+ yds and the reliable defense held the Rebels to just 3 points in the 2nd half and took advantage of the 3 OM miscues. Easily their best effort of the season.

Vanderbilt: A-
Another one of those headscratchers that Vanderbilt has mastered this year. Actually outgained an SEC opponent for the first time this year, though against this year’s Auburn team, that’s not saying much.

Arkansas: B+
The Hogs were actually competitive for 3 quarters which is more than they can say about their recent games. This is certainly Petrino’s first moral victory to go along with his 2 moral defeats he opened the season with. I’m not sure how much better the Hogs could have played in this one.

Kentucky: B+
Went toe-to-toe with the #2 Tide in a ridiculously lopsided rivalry and nearly walked out with a victory. This weekend’s game with South Carolina will be a better indicator of how good UK is than this game was.

Florida: B
On the plus side, they rolled up 500+ yds of offense and held the Hogs to 7 points. But they also committed 12 penalties and didn’t put the game away until the 4th. Probably looking ahead to the big showdown with LSU.

Alabama: C
Came out and smacked UK in the mouth in the 1st quarter, then really didn’t do much else the rest of the game. While some of that goes to an inspired effort by the ‘Cats D, a lot of it is on the Tide. The penalties – 10 for 92 yds – were very surprising, as one of the trademarks of this team has been discipline.

Ole Miss: C-
The game started out as well as possible for the Rebels, up 14-3 after the 1st quarter. After that, the turnovers came out, which has been an all-too-familiar theme for OM this year. The offense went stagnant in the 2nd half and the vulnerable secondary was torched by Chris Smelley. Not a very strong effort following last week’s big win.

Tennessee: D-
Yea, the Vols beat Northern Illinois by 4. They had 9 first downs and less than 230 yds of offense. If not for an above average defense, the Vols would be Arkansas.

Auburn: F
Just an ugly, ugly game from Auburn. It’s not even worth the effort to come up with different words to describe that “offense”. And missing a PAT is icing on the cake.

Week 6 Picks

Saturday
(#12,#13)Florida (3-1, 1-1) @ Arkansas (2-2, 0-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Florida 6-1
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -25

This will be the first meeting between UF and Arkansas since the 2006 SEC Championship game. Arkansas won the first meeting ever between these two teams in the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl, but has lost the last 6, including 2 SEC Championship games.

This one won’t be much of a game. Florida is coming off an upset loss to Ole Miss while the Hogs are coming off another thrashing, this time at the hands of Texas. The Razorbacks rank 65th in the country in total defense and 74th in total offense. While the Gators gain only a few more yards than they Hogs – 71st nationally – they score more than 15 more than the Hogs do. Their defense – 7th in the nation – is also significantly better.

Any disillusions Razorback fans had that this wasn’t a rebuilding year have gone up in flames the last two weeks that saw Arkansas outscored 101-25. A re-focused Gator team can all but name their score in this one.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2) @ Ole Miss (3-2, 1-1)
1:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Ole Miss 8-5
Wednesday’s Line: Ole Miss -2.5

Like the Florida/Arkansas series, this is one of those random East/West matches that only happens every few years. The Rebels have won 5 in a row against South Carolina, including all 4 meetings since the ‘Cocks joined the SEC in 1992. Current Ole Miss DC Tyrone Nix was at South Carolina last year.

Last year, when Nutt was at Arkansas, the Razorbacks slashed USC for 542 rushing yds behind McFadden’s 321 yds and Jones’ 166. This year, Nutt is at the helm of a much more balanced offense that showed equal parts big-play capability and mind-boggling inconsistency last week in the big win against Florida. Unlike last year though, SC’s defense is still healthy and leads the nation in total defense, allowing a paltry 221.4 ypg.

Spurrier is hoping that QB Garcia can bring a little spark to the stagnant Gamecock offense. While the D has been solid, the offense ranks 79th in total offense and 90th in scoring offense. He played well in spurts last year, but hasn’t proven to be a consistent performer yet. He’ll need to use his legs a lot on Saturday escaping the OM pass rush that bothered Tebow so much last week.

Nutt feels last week’s game was a turning point for the Rebels. As losers of nine straight SEC games, no one there “knew how to win”. They’re slight favorites in this game and the defensive line will only be healthier and more in rhythm than last week, when they controlled the line of scrimmage from the beginning. If they can avoid the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, they’ll actually have an SEC winning streak.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Kentucky (4-0, 0-0) @ (#2, #4)Alabama (5-0, 2-0)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 33-2-1
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -16.5

One of the most lopsided series in college football resumes this weekend when unbeaten Kentucky travels to Tuscaloosa to tangle with unbeaten Alabama. The ‘Cats are 0-8 in Tuscaloosa and haven’t beat UAT since 1997. UK’s other win in the series came in 1922.

While the ‘Cats have played 3 cupcakes and 1 pseudo-cupcake, they have looked impressive, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They currently rank 4th in the country, giving up just 227.3 ypg. The offense has been spotty at times, but seemed to hit its stride a bit last week against WKU.

Meanwhile, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule and has compiled the most complete body of work so far this season of any team in the country. They’re certainly due for a letdown this week after the annihilation of UGA last week, but the Tide is too sound fundamentally to lose this game. They lead the SEC in scoring and have given up just 20 more ypg than UK has, despite playing a much tougher schedule.

While this certainly isn’t a make or break game for UK, it certainly is a chance to legitimize their 4-0 record. While they won’t win the game, I do think they’ll keep it close enough to cover. Alabama is 17 points better than Kentucky most days, but as the Tide showed against Tulane, they’re not immune to a bit of a hangover. The Tide may need a special teams or defensive play to spark them, but they’ll move to 6-0.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Kentucky

(#13, #14)Auburn (4-1, 2-1) @ (#19, #19)Vanderbilt (4-0, 2-0)
5:00 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: Auburn 20-19-1
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -4.5

Auburn has won 13 straight in this series, which surprising gives them just a 1-game lead in the all-time series. The Tigers have rarely struggled in that streak, averaging 36.4 ppg and holding VU to 10 pts or less in 9 of the 13 games. Obviously, this weekend’s showdown presents a unique set of circumstances as they’d have to play 3 times for Auburn to reach 36 points.

Hmm… how to say it… Both of these teams are horrid offensively. Auburn ranks 90th in the country with 329.4 ypg and Vanderbilt ranks 112th at 282.8 ypg. Where the big difference lies on the defensive side of the ball. Auburn ranks 11th in the country, surrendering only 246 ypg. Vandy ranks last in the SEC and 73rd in the country giving up 364 ypg. Both defenses should improve their standings this weekend.

This is a chance for Vanderbilt to prove to everyone it belongs on the national scene. GameDay will be in town, it’s a national, primetime broadcast, and this has to be the smallest line on a Vanderbilt/Auburn game in recent memory. Unfortunately for the ‘Dores, this is the type of situation in which they typically fold.

I don’t see how the ‘Dores will move the ball against Auburn’s defense. If the Auburn offense can stay out the way of itself and let the defense win the game, the Tigers will be fine. They’ll have to take better care of the ball, as VU sports the most opportunistic defense in the country as they are currently rising a ridiculous +9 TO margin through just 4 games. South Carolina and Ole Miss seemed to make consistently bad decisions and spoonfed the Commodores TOs. It’s hard to take Auburn on the road against anybody at this point, but it’s even harder to imagine Vandy scoring much against the Tiger D.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Tennessee (1-3, 0-2)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -15.5

This will be Fulmer’s first tangle with a MAC opponent as head coach at Tennessee and it couldn’t come at a better time… so long as the Vols win, which is hardly a given regardless of the opponent. UNI has outscored its last two opponents 85-3. While the competition has been weak – Indiana State and Eastern Michigan – those are still gaudy numbers. This is the same program that beat then #21 Alabama in 2003 though, so the Vols will have to be ready to play. As bad as UT has been this year, they can’t afford to take anyone lightly.

My guess is the game goes something like this: Tennessee struggles, fans boo, UNI gets an early lead, fans boo some more, ponder how much it’ll take to bring Lane Kiffin in for the 2009 season, Tennessee’s defense makes a play or two, the Vols win by 10. It’ll be ugly, but a 2nd win for the Vols.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Northern Illinois

Week 5 SEC Power Poll

No surprise that there's a new #1 team this week. The Tide was dominant in dismantling the 'Dawgs and rode that victory to a #2 ranking in the AP Poll. Meanwhile, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Arkansas strengthened their grips on the bottom spots.

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