AJC not very high on SEC basketball for 08-09

Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal Constitution has a look at the upcoming college basketball season. While he - like many - assume it's a foregone conclusion that UNC will walk away with the national title, the rest of his top 25 is fairly intriguing. From the SEC, he ranks Tennessee #5, Florida #17, and Ole Miss #24.

I think Tennessee will actually be better in 08-09 than they were last year, but they won't have as good a record. And by better, I mean they'll advance deeper in the tournament. This past year's team - like Vandy - relied too much on jump shots to operate. They'll be much more post-oriented next season.

Florida and Ole Miss both have awesome young backcourts that gained invaluable experience last year. Both have major questions inside though, as UF's Speights has entered the NBA draft and OM lost their 3 big guys to graduation. If either team can just consistent play inside, the sky is the limit for either team.

I've said it before - even with the loss of Randoplh - LSU has the talent in place to be good. Now that they have a coach who knows what he's doing, they may be able to maintain the consistency that John Brady never could.

Weekend Games (2/16)

Some intriguing games this weekend. Key divisional battles - UF@VU, AU@OM, ARK@MSU, - that will go a long way in determining how teams will be seeded come SEC Tourney time. Here's what to expect this weekend...

Kentucky @ LSU
This game will pretty much define Kentucky's season. A few days after being waxed on national TV by 40+ points, UK Must travel to a suddenly inspired LSU team coming off a big win in Florida. While Buth Pierre and his fivehead are certainly a coaching upgrade over John Brady, can they continue this high level of play against the SEC East's top teams? Maybe I'm crazy, but I see UK getting it done here. Crazy things tend to happen when these teams meet up, and the 'Cats will come out ahead in the end.

Florida @ Vanderbilt
Fresh off an ugly home loss to LSU, the Gators need this one to keep pace in the muddled mess that is 2nd plae in the East. Vandy though, fresh off its most dominating performance of the season hasn't lost a home game all year. That coupled with UF's struggles on the road spells trouble for the 2-time champs. Vandy wins.

Tennessee @ Georgia
Both coming off big wins, though this game means much more to the Vols than it does the 'Dawgs. UGA is just another step in the Vols' march to an SEC crown.

Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Revenge will be on the minds of the Bulldogs, who suffered their first - and worst - SEC loss of the year in Fayetteville. The Hogs are coming off a road blowout to UT from Wednesday night and face the real possibility of the same fate in Starkville. While this game will be close, MSU is too tough at home for the Hogs. Arkansas' Gary Ervin will be a marked man from the time he steps onto campus.

Auburn @ Ole Miss
If the Rebels are going to stop their current bleeding, it has to start now. They've gone from 13-0 to an NIT team in a matter of weeks, but they can begin to rectify that with a win over an AU team that beat them on the Plains earlier this season. This should be a big bounce back game for the Rebels as AU is riding a 5-game losing streak. The Rebels will handle business.

Alabama @ South Carolina
The Tide finally managed to hit FTs in clutch situations and held on to knock off Ole Miss Wednesday night. Now, they face a USC team that was just blown out by UGA Wednesday night. In a battle of contrasting styles, the talented USC guards will be too much for the Tide. USC wins.

And for some Friday tunes...

2008 SEC Basketball Preview

While the conference is down this year as a whole, the SEC is the only conference with 2 undefeated teams – Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. The divisional battles should be highly entertaining as well. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Arkansas appear to be the class of the SEC, but Mississippi State has been playing much better as of late.

Conference play tips off Tuesday night when the Gators travel to Tuscaloosa. The rest of the league gets started Wednesday night. Here’s a look at how conference play will shake out 16 games from now…

SEC EAST
1. Tennessee – they were the preseason pick of nearly everyone to win the East – as well as the conference – and they’ve done nothing to make me think they won’t. Their one loss is to a very good Texas team that’s better than anyone the Vols will face in conference. They’ll need preseason All-America Chris Lofton to snap out of his shooting slump (34.4% from the floor, 33% on 3s) to live up to their preseason hype, but they have talent to do so. The conference’s best shot at a Final Four Team.
Significant Wins: West Virginia(N), @Xavier, Gonzaga(N)
Bad Losses: None

2. Vanderbilt – Coming off a season in which they were denied an Elite 8 berth by a curious no-travelling call on Georgetown’s Jeff Green, no one knew what to make of the ‘Dores’ chances this year, particular with the graduation of top scorer Derrick Byars. Those questions have been answered and more. Led by Senior Shan Foster and true freshman Andrew Olgilvy (ranked 1st and 2nd in scoring in the conference), The ‘Dores are one of just 6 undefeated teams left in the nation. It remains to be seen if they have the talent to take down the Vols in the East, but they’ll certainly be ranked and dancing at year’s end.
Significant Wins: South Alabama, @DePaul, UMass
Bad Losses: None

3. Florida – The 2-time defending national champs are nowhere near where they were the last 2 seasons. But who would be losing what they lost last year? They play a bunch of talented – but very young – guys who will have their ups and downs this season. This was obvious in blowout losses at home to Florida State and on the road against Ohio State. HC Donovan knows his way around the conference though, and while they’ll take their lumps at time this season, they’ll certainly be back among the nation’s elite next season. True freshman Nick Calathes (15ppg, 6apg, 5rpg) is a true star in the making.
Significant Wins: None
Bad Losses: Combined 100 pts in losses to Florida State and @Ohio State

4. Kentucky – Not what the Big Blue Nation had in mind when Billy Gillispie to be the savior of the program. He has not gelled with the holdouts from Tubby Smith’s tenure and UK has compiled a list of embarrassing losses to prove it. There’s even a song about it. Fortunately for the ‘Cats, the bottom of the SEC East borders on wretched, and there’s still enough talent the team to finish 4th in the division. Freshman Patrick Patterson (17ppg, 8rpg, 2 apg) has been the lone bright spot for UK this season.
Significant Wins: None
Bad Losses: Gardner-Webb, San Diego, blowout loss to IU

5. South Carolina – Cincinnati’s firing of Bobby Huggins paid immediate dividend for Ole Miss, as the Rebels snagged Bearcats’ interim coach Andy Kennedy, who promptly led the Rebels to a division title and SEC Coach of the year. The Gamecocks are benefitting this year as UC transfer Devan Downey has become USC’s go-to guy in his first year in Columbia. He’s leading the Gamecocks in scoring, assists, and steals and ranks in the top 6 in the SEC each of those categories. The Gamecocks though will be without the nation’s leading 3 point shooter (Brandis Raley-Ross, knee injury) for the first couple of weeks of January and will struggle against teams with solid inside players.
Significant Wins: @Providence
Bad Losses: UNC-Asheville

6. Georgia – What was set to be a breakout season for HC Dennis Felton and the ‘Dawgs has turned into a nightmare. Mike Mercer and Takais Brown, leading scorers from last season, were kicked off the team before the season started, and now 7’0 freshman Rashaad Singleton has quit the team in search of more PT at another school. While they still have quality players in Sundiata Gaines and Billy Humphrey, they don’t have the depth to compete over a 16-game schedule.
Significant Wins: Wake Forest
Bad Losses:ETSU

SEC WEST
1. Arkansas - While Ole Miss may be the only ranked (and undefeated) team in the SEC West, the Hogs return basically their entire team from last season’s NCAA tourney berth. They’ve been up and down in the early season, but their core players have been through the rigors of the SEC before and that should give them the advantage over the young Rebels down the stretch. Patrick Beverly, Darrian Townes, Sonny Weems lead a balanced Razorback attack.
Significant Wins: Missouri, Baylor
Bad Losses:Appalachian State

2. Ole Miss – What else can you say about Andy Kennedy? The upstart Rebels enter conference play undefeated and ranked #15 in the country. They’re big in the middle, getting solid play and a lot of minutes from 3 senior big men, including All-SEC performer Dwayne Curtis. Their guards are very young though, which may spell trouble down the line. Sophomore SG Eniel Polynice missed a triple double by 1 assist earlier this season, so he represents the Rebs’ best all-around threat. While they enter conference play as the West favorite, their youth and inexperience may cost them critical games and drop them to 2nd in the West.
Significant Wins: New Mexico, Clemson, South Alabama
Bad Losses: None

3. Mississippi State – This was supposed to be a big season for the ‘Dawgs, but it hasn’t panned out that way. At least not yet. Losing the Delk brothers before the season hurt their depth and may have contributed to some of their early season stumbles. G/F Jamont Gordon is one the best players in the conference and is an all-around threat, so more effective when not handling the ball. He’s putting up great stats (17.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.6 apg) so far and will key to the Bulldogs making a run at defending their SEC West title. MSU is good enough to finish in the top half of the SEC West, but not the top 2.
Significant Wins: Missouri
Bad Losses: Miami (OH)

4. Alabama – Richard Hendrix is the SEC Player of the Year so far. He’s averaging 19 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2 bpg, and is shooting 63.2% despite facing double- and triple-teams every time he touches the ball. He and teammate Alonzo Gee rank 1st and 2nd in the conference in rebounding, and – along with sharpshooter Mykal Riley – form a dangerous scoring combination. Unfortunately, they’re playing without Ronald Steele, their All-SEC PG. The lack of a steady ball handler will spell doom in close games, particularly on the road. Those losses will drop the Tide to 4th in the West.
Significant Wins: None
Bad Losses: Belmont, 26-pt home loss to Clemson

5. Auburn – Prior to the season, Auburn looked like they could be this year’s surprise team. They had basically their entire team back from last season and a manageable schedule. That was to put to rest with a bad loss to Tulane to open the season and the humbling blowout to West Virginia. Now, with Korvotney Barber out for a month, the Tigers will be without the nation’s leading FG% guy for the first several games of conference. That spells trouble.
Significant Wins: None
Bad Losses: 29-pt loss to WVU, 23-pt loss to Xavier at home

6. LSU – Unfortunately for LSU HC John Brady, tonight’s BCS Championship game marks the end of LSU’s football season. Until baseball starts up, all eyes will be on him and his team, which has been just this side of abysmal this season. While the schedule has been tough, the blowout losses are mounting. And with All-SEC forward Tasmin Mitchell on the shelf for the season with an ankle injury, things will be very ugly on the bayou this basketball season. If – and that’s a big IF – Brady survives the season, I can't see him surviving more than a few days after the SEC Tourney ends.
Significant Wins: None
Bad Losses: 20-pt loss @Wichita State, @Tulane, 26-pt loss @Texas A&M