Sugar Bowl Preview

(#4, #4)Alabama (12-1) vs (#7, #9) Utah (12-0)
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA
January 2, 7:00 PM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: Alabama 31-21-3, Utah 10-3
Monday’s Line: Alabama -9.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Utah: 403.6 ypg, (32nd), 37.4 ppg (15th)
Alabama: 367.2 ypg (56th), 31.2 ppg (30th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Utah: 295.9 ypg (17th), 17.3 ppg (12th)
Alabama: 256.9 ypg (3rd), 13.0 ppg (6th)

The Crimson tide will wrap up another memorable season in its long, storied history Friday night with its 13th appearance in the Sugar Bowl. They’ll take on an undefeated Utah Utes team that first crashed the BCS in 2005, spanking Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl.

Much of the news this week has focused on the suspension of All-America LT Andre Smith. The Outland Trophy award winner violated unspecified team rules and will miss the final game of the season, and possibly his career. This puts added pressure on QB John Parker Wilson to make smart, accurate throws to prevent the Utes from stacking the box to take away the Tide’s power running game.

Smith’s absence won’t affect the Tide’s defensive gameplan though. That’s where the Tide have excelled all season, ranking in the top 6 in both total defense and scoring defense. And while the Utes certainly present a new set of challenges, some of what they run is similar to Florida’s attack, just without Tebow at the helm. Utah senior QB Brian Johnson is certainly no slouch though, throwing for 2600+ yds and 24 TDs on the season.

There’s no doubt that Andre Smith will be missed, but his absence won’t be enough to derail the Tide. This Alabama team is too sound and too disciplined to have a hiccup against a team that is not more talented. Saban will have the Tide ready to play and the SEC will continue its BCS dominance.

Alabama 24, Utah 14

The Sporting News Rates the Bowls

The Sporting News has ranked the Bowl Games 1-34 and it’s a little different from Rivals' picks. Here’s how TSN sees the SEC games.

1. BCS Title Game
There’s major pressure on Florida’s young defense and Oklahoma’s banged-up group to make a handful of stops and force a turnover or two.

3. Cotton Bowl
A curious case here for erratic Tech, which could roll with 10 touchdowns or fold after a poor regular-season finish. Ole Miss, with road wins over Florida and LSU, won’t be intimidated by the Red Raiders.

10. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Nothing like Paul Johnson’s triple option in the background to ring in the new year.

13. Sugar Bowl
Smell a barnburner? You’re not alone.

15. Capital One Bowl
This might be the last go-around for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno at Georgia

22. Outback Bowl
The game’s a scout’s dream and a fan’s nightmare.

30. Liberty Bowl
Not much talent on the field for this one.

32. Music City Bowl
What time does Opryland close New Year’s Eve?

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Thursday Afternoon Linkage

* It’s meaningless and inherently flawed, but quick… name the SEC school ranked highest in the New America Foundation’s 2nd Annual BCS Academic Standings. For the 99% of you that said Vanderbilt, you’re wrong. It’s Ole Miss.

The NFA’s formula starts with the team's most recent federal graduation rate, which includes four classes of players who entered college between 1998 and 2001 and graduated within six years of initial enrollment. Then, each team gains or loses points based on (A) the gap between the team's graduation rate and the overall school's graduation rate and (B) the gap between the team's black-white player graduation rate disparity and the overall school's disparity. Finally, the team gains or loses points if its Academic Progress Rate exceeds or falls below the Division I-A median.

* Chris Low runs down the Top 25 players in the SEC. Alabama leads the way with 7. Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss check in with 3 a piece, while LSU and Tennessee have 2 each.

* Auburn’s questionable hire of Gene Chizik has raised more than a few eyebrows across the SEC and the blogosphere ( I know, who knew?). Pat Forde grades the recent SEC hires and drops this gem:

Maybe Chizik will be the next Bill Parcells -- he went 3-8 in his first year as a head coach, at the Air Force Academy in 1978 -- before turning out all right. But until that happens, this has the makings of the worst hire in SEC history.

Dan Wetzel shares a similar viewpoint.

* Jason Whitlock is dead on again. While race may or may not have been a determining factor in Auburn’s passing on the more-talented Turner Gill for the Ed Orgeron Redux that is Gene Chizik, Auburn may not have been the right fit for Gill at this point of his career.

A Closer Look at the AP All-American Teams

With all the talk of the SEC being down a bit this year, only the Big 12 landed more players (18) on the 2008 AP All-American teams than the SEC’s 14. Not surprisingly, the Big 12 is heavy on the offensive side of the ball, landing 14 offensive players on the 3 teams. The SEC was second with 7. The ACC led all conferences with 9 All-American defensive players. The SEC was second with 7.

Here’s a look at how it breaks down by conference, by All-America team, 1st – 3rd.


While football is undoubtedly a bona fide team sport, you’ve got to have individual talent to win. The argument can rage for days about whether the Big 12 offenses are that good or the defenses are that bad. The exact opposite question is applied to the SEC. Unfortunately, there’s no answers to that here, or anywhere until the bowl games are played.

As a side note, SECSports lists only 13 SEC players on its website, but they missed LSU’s Herman Johnson, which is remarkably tough to do, given his stature.

SEC Power Poll All-SEC Team: Running Backs

As mentioned earlier, the SEC Power Poll voters have compiled an All-SEC team of our own. We voted on each position and are now revealing our results. The offense is being revealed today with the defense following later this week.

You can see the QB at Alligator Army, the Tight End at Leftover Hotdog, and the Offensive Line and Wide Receivers at TeamSpeedKills.

This year's winners for top RBs in the league are UGA's Knowshown Moreno and Alabama's Glen Coffee.

While UGA might not have enjoyed the type of season it had hoped for, it's not because of Moreno. He was electrifying week in and week out, rolling up 7 100-yard games as he and backfield buddy QB Matthew Stafford led the 'Dawgs to 32.1 ppg, 2nd best in the conference. He averaged 5.9 ypc and tallied at least 1 TD in every game except the Tennessee game.

While Moreno and UGA got the majority of the preseason hype, Glen Coffee and the Tide made it abundantly clear early and often that they were not to be trifled with. While Coffee certainly benefited from Alabama's monstrous offensive line, he - and fellow RB Mark Ingram - were the steadying forces for Alabama's ball control offense. Coffee registered 5 100-yard games and averaged a robust 6.1 ypc. His numbers could've been much higher, but he split time with Ingram

Here's a look at their numbers and conference ranks*:

Rush Yards Per Game
Knowshon Moreno 111.5 (1)
Glen Coffee 102.9 (3)

Total Rushing Yards
Knowshon Moreno 1338 (1)
Glen Coffee 1235 (2)

Rushing TDs
Knowshon Moreno 16 (1)
Glen Coffee 9 (3)

Total Yards From Scrimmage
Knowshon Moreno 1667 (1)
Glen Coffee 1306 (3)

*regular season games only

Knowshon Moreno
We've all seen this one 1000 times...

...and this one too...


Glen Coffee
He's literally untouched on this...

... and a very nice featurette on SportsCenter

Rivals ranks the SEC Bowl Games

Rivals has ranked the bowl games from 1-34 in terms of intrigue and interest. With 68 teams making the postseason these days, there are quite a few games that even alumni probably can’t get up for. Of the 8 SEC games, 5 rank pretty high (top 13). The other 3… not so much.

Here’s how Rivals sees it:

1. BCS National Championship Game, Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1):
It's for the national title, which makes it No. 1 on this list. The past two title games have been decided by a total of 41 points. That may be the number of points needed to win this one.

6. Sugar Bowl, Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0):
Utah has a lot to prove, despite its unbeaten record. Will Alabama suffer any kind of hangover from its SEC title game loss?

7. Capital One Bowl, Georgia (9-3) vs. Michigan State (9-3):
An intriguing Big Ten-SEC matchup. Michigan State can't pass, but TB Javon Ringer had a great season and Georgia's defense has had trouble against the run. And can Michigan State slow Georgia TB Knowshon Moreno? In their three losses, the Spartans' defense was run over.

9. Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1):
Ole Miss has a good front four, and if you can harass Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, he becomes an average quarterback. But only one team was really able to harass him this season. Watch Ole Miss junior DE Greg Hardy, who could declare for the draft. Hardy could make himself quite a bundle of money with a big game.

13. Chick-fil-A Bowl, Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5):
This basically is a home game for the Yellow Jackets, who will be playing a few miles from their campus in downtown Atlanta. LSU comes in having lost three of their past four. If the Tigers' defense doesn't awaken from its season-ending slumber, LSU is going to finish 7-6 one season after winning the national title.

22. Outback Bowl, Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5):
Iowa runs well but can't throw. South Carolina runs poorly and would like to throw but can't. At least both play good defense.

26. Music City, Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6):
Vanderbilt comes in having lost six of its past seven. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us. BC, by the way, holds the nation's longest current bowl winning streak, at eight games.

27. Liberty Bowl, East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6):
Kentucky comes in having lost three in a row, four of five and six of eight. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us.

While Chris Low (ESPN) doesn’t delve into all 34 games, he ranks the SEC games in that same order. From a neutral standpoint, that’s probably how I’d have to rank them as well. On a national scale, I think the Outback should be higher than the 22nd most interesting bowl, but I agree with its pecking order in the rank of SEC games.

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Some links and thoughts on Championship Saturday

* Most of you have probably seen this, but if you haven't, the Orlando Sentinel has a look at how college football would be different if Tebow had chosen Alabama over Florida. The effects would have been far reaching, sure, but it's really just a fluff piece about Tebow.

* There's a good read in the Wall Street Journal about Southern football and its rise to prominence.

* Army's camo uniforms are awesome.

* It's hard not to root for Buffalo head coach Turner Gill. His post-game interview and subsequent man-hug with his AD after last night's shellacking of Testicle Tech Ball State are what the passion of college football is all about.

I can't imagine he's going to be at Buffalo much longer. The Bulls joined D1A in 1999 and were an underdog in every game for 7 years. They'd won 17 games in their first 9 seasons and are now MAC Champions. It's a remarkable feat what Gill accomplished in 3 seasons.

* I still don't agree with the Tuberville firing. I disagree more with how Auburn AD Jay Jacobs is handling it, claiming it was Tubby's choice and that Auburn paid the $5M+ buyout because they "felt it was the right thing to do".

That said, his firing will also resonate in Starkville. First off - Bulldog fans - there is absolutely no chance that Tommy Tuberville is you head coach next year. It's not going to happen. Secondly, it knocks the MSU job down another notch as Auburn will certainly have first choice over MSU. While getting rid of Croom was the right thing to do, it's not going to be easy to convince someone to move to Starkville to compete with Saban and Miles and Nutt and Petrino for recruits.

* The line for today's SEC Championship game has held steady at 10 points all week, so the money's been split pretty evenly. I think it's a fair line and if each team plays their game, it's about what the margin would be.

SEC Championship Game Preview

Saturday
(#1, #1)Alabama (12-0, 8-0) vs. (#2, #3)Florida (11-1, 7-1)
SEC Championship Game
3:00 PM CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 21-13
Thursday’s Line: Florida -10

While there’s no doubt the SEC is not as strong as a whole this year as in 2007, it’s hard not appreciate the significance of this weekend’s SEC Championship game. Florida was expected by most to make it. Alabama was expected by most to be a year or two away. And now the two clash in Atlanta for the right to call themselves SEC Champions.

These two schools are no strangers to each other in this environment. This is the 6th time in the 17 years of the SEC Championship game that these programs have faced off. Alabama won the inaugural SEC title game in 1992, followed by the Gators winning the next two in 1993 and 1994. The Gators also beat Alabama in 1996 before the Tide rolled in 1999. Alabama has never played another opponent besides the Gators in the title game. Meanwhile, the Gators are back in Atlanta for the 9th time and sport a 6-2 record there.

While statistics certainly don’t always tell the whole story, you can get a feel for how a team operates. When you run down the numbers on both sides of the ball for these two schools, it’s easy to see why they’re here. See the chart below. (conference ranks in parentheses)
We all knew the Gators would be close to unstoppable offensively. Tebow has played himself back into Heisman contention and even with a (perpetually) gimpy Percy Harvin, there are few offense in the country that put up yards and points like the Gators. And while the general consensus was that the Gators would be better on D, I don’t know that many saw this sort of a turnaround. Sure they’ve inflated some numbers playing in a weakened SEC, but the turnaround is remarkable.

The same could be said for Alabama’s offense. Last year, the Tide struggled to put points up consistently. This year, the Tide generated as many points per game as a Georgia offense led by future NFLers at QB and RB. Saban is known for his defensive scheming, so it’s not surprise to see gaudy numbers there, but the importance of a consistent offense cannot be understated.

As for the game itself, Alabama actually matches up as well as a team can with the Gator offense. In the lone Florida loss this year, the Gators struggled against an aggressive and dominant Ole Miss front four. The Rebels held the Gators to 124 rushing yards. Only Miami(FL) did better against the UF ground game, but offensive inconsistencies took the ‘Canes out of that game early. The Tide will stack the box with 8-9 guys and force Tebow to beat them with his arm.

Offensively, the Tide will pound the ball on the ground with a slew of hard-hitting backs and take their shots downfield when the opportunities are there. Other than freshmen WR Julio Jones, no one really stands out on this offensive unit, and Jones hasn’t scored a TD since September. That said, as evidenced by the season-long production, while they may now “wow”, they’ll certainly rear back and knock you over if you’re not ready.

The Tide enters this game with a very solid +9 turnover margin. The Gators are at ridiculous +21. Only twice have they lost the turnover margin in a game – Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. If the Tide want to win this one, they’ll need to turn the Gators over and give themselves short fields to work with.

When it’s all said and done, the Gators will win this game. And they will cover the 10 points. What they won’t do is run Alabama out of the Georgia Dome like they’ve done their last 8 opponents. The Tide is too tough defensively, particularly up front to let that happen. Florida wins 38-24.

Thoughts from an eventful weekend in the SEC

* First things first: Love him or hate him, it was the end of an era as the final seconds ticked off the clock in Neyland Stadium Saturday night. While Fulmer was certainly an easy target, his record - particularly early in his tenure - speaks for itself.

That said, I'm not sold that Lane Kiffin is the right fit yet at a BCS school. He's assembling an impressive staff, but the SEC East is hardly the ideal scenario to learn the ropes.

* Though his 5-year performance certainly merited it, I'm surprised Mississippi State pulled the plug on the Croominator. While his hiring was certainly an intriguing story for a week or two, it was hard not to tire of the media adoration even as his teams failed miserably on the field, mostly due to his poor recruiting and strategizing. In his 5 years in Starkville the Bulldogs never ranked in the top 100 in total offense.

In his swan song Saturday in Oxford, the Bulldogs had 14 drives: 12 punts and 2 interceptions. The never had a drive of more than 14 yds. I'm not sure who the Bulldogs are going to be able to afford, but aside from being probation-free, the program is in no better shape than when Croom was hired.

* The dominating performance Saturday capped a remarkable 4-game run to close the season for Ole Miss. They've given up just 20 points over the last 4 games and set a school record with 11 sacks Friday afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Capital One Bowl select the streaking Rebels over the porous Georgia Bulldogs.

* Speaking of UGA, that was just ugly yesterday. The Bulldog offense certainly got the preseason memo about the talent level of this team. It seems though it never reached the defensive coaches. The 2008 'Dawgs are more reminiscent of 2007's Florida team than either program would want to admit.

* Tommy Tuberville will be the first to admit that he's the primary reason for Auburn's disappointing 5-win season this year. While it's certainly not the season he or Auburn fans, I'm not sure it merits a pink slip. His recent track record is significantly better than Fulmer or Croom's is. But with the ridiculous pressure he's under - particularly with Saban's success at Alabama, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up somewhere next year. The Auburn fanbase isn't as fractured as Arkansas' was before Nutt left, but it's certainly within walking distance.

* I think LSU fans were a lot happier with "2-loss Les" than "5-Loss Les". It's ugly when you don't have a serviceable QB in this league.

* Spurrier can't be having any fun in Columbia. I gotta figure he's done after this season. The Gamecocks are 4 years into the Spurrier regime and there's been 4 5+ loss seasons. I can't imagine that's sitting well with the OBC's psyche.

* Going to be a helluvan SEC Championship Game Saturday afternoon. Mike Slive and his staff couldn't have asked for anything more.

Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

Here's a look at this week's SEC Bowl projections from a panel of "experts".

* Apparently NBC's Cary Estes was projecting Auburn to knock off Georgia as the Tigers have disappeared off this list completely.

* Tennessee and Mississippi State are already guaranteed losing seasons. Arkansas and Auburn are both mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, but both teams would need major upsets to go their way.

* I know Alabama fans are upset that they're being slighted - #1 in the country and not predicted to reach the title game - but the simple fact of the matter is that the Gators are the best team in the country right now. Both teams just need to stay focus and avoid pitfalls between now and December 6th.

* Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt are all about equal in the eyes of the 5 pundits listed. I've talked about this before in previous threads, but I don't think the Music City Bowl would take Kentucky for a third straight year unless their hand is forced by circumstance. And I doubt the Wildcats players or fans would be too excited either.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (which chooses teams before the Music City Bowl) has the choice between a 7-5 Ole Miss team and a 7-5 Kentucky team, my guess is that they'd take UK to revitalize the CATlanta atmosphere so prevalent at the SEC Basketball tournament of years past. If Ole Miss knocks of LSU this weekend and finishes 8-4 and 2nd in the West though, the 'Cats may end up back in Nashville.

* Vanderbilt is in an interesting situation as the Music City Bowl is hosted (basically) just across the river from their campus. While the 'Dores certainly won't be picky about a bowl game after a 25 year drought, the coaching staff may prefer to travel to another city to be sure the players get the full bowl experience.

They could theoretically end up in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a win over UT this weekend and knocking off Wake Forest on the road next weekend. That would then send UK to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl and Ole Miss to Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

* UPDATED 11/18/08Mandel's picks are in from CNN/SI. Apparently, he thinks the Gamecocks are going to lose next weekend in Clemson, as he projects Ole Miss to take the Outback Bowl bid. While a Gamecock loss is certainly not out of the question, I'm not sure that would land Ole Miss in Tampa.

From the Bowl Tie-In Page on SECSports.com:

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.

In his scenario, the Cotton Bowl selects LSU, which would seem to imply the Tigers beat the Rebels this weekend. The Outback Bowl takes Ole Miss, which they'd be allowed to do since the Cotton Bowl had already taken an SEC West team. To me, it seems that if the Rebels beat LSU and MSU, they'd be more attractive to the Cotton Bowl than LSU would be. If they don't beat LSU, it seems the Gamecocks would be more attractive to the Outback Bowl than the Rebels unless they get blown out at Clemson next week. Neither scenario has the Rebels landing in the Outback Bowl.

Random Bits

* There were 4 SEC baseball stadiums named to Rivals Top 10 list, though it may not be the ones you thought it would be. The site offers this disclaimer:

LSU and South Carolina were omitted from our list because both schools have ballparks that still are under construction.

As for the ones that did make the list:

Baum Stadium – Arkansas
Baum Stadium is the palace of college baseball stadiums. Though many schools now are building new stadiums, they still are playing catch up with the Razorbacks. When Baum Stadium was erected in 1996, it was the class of college baseball. Not much has changed, as the capacity currently is 10,500 and luxury suites extend from the left-field foul pole to the right-field foul pole. Arkansas fans also pack the house rain or shine and provide a premier home-field advantage for their baseball program. Everyone aspires to have a facility like the University of Arkansas.

Polk-Dement Stadium -- Mississippi State
No school blows out a postseason party in a regional or super regional quite like Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs struggle to fill the stands until the weather warms up, Polk-Dement Stadium is an excellent venue to watch a game. In addition to a roomy grandstand, the Bulldogs also have what is called the "Left-Field Lounge", where patrons line the outfield wall with barbeque pits, coolers and whatever else they can get in their possession. The official capacity for the stadium, including outfield seating, is 15,000. Those that watched the Starkville super regional two seasons ago know exactly what the Bulldogs are about at Polk-Dement Stadium.

Oxford-University Stadium -- Ole Miss
Ole Miss has one of the hidden gems in college baseball. Though observers in the Southeastern part of the country know about the great atmosphere at Oxford-University Stadium, people nationally just now are getting a taste of what the Rebels are about. O-U Stadium holds about 3,500 spectators in the main grandstand, but thousands of fans often line the grassy areas down the left and right field lines and the outfield. In 2005, a record 10,119 fans were in attendance as the Rebels played Alabama. Ole Miss currently is in the midst of a renovation campaign that will increase grandstand seating.

Plainsman Park – Auburn
When the Tigers decided to renovate their facility in 1996, many schools, including Baylor, took notice of the project. Plainsman Park is one of the nation's best stadiums and has a wonderful façade to go with a cozy atmosphere. Plainsman Park has a capacity of 4,096 fans. However, the record attendance for a single-game was set in 2002, as 4,715 fans packed the stadium to watch Auburn play LSU. Recently, the Tigers have installed a new drainage system for the playing surface and a state-of-the-art strength and rehabilitation center. Auburn certainly is a trendsetter.

* ESPN has their first Bracketology up for the 2008-09 season and Lunardi projects just 5 SEC teams to dance this year:

Florida (2-seed)
Tennessee (4-seed)
Kentucky (8-seed)
Alabama (11-seed)
LSU (13-seed)

I’ll throw out that Ole Miss will make the tournament in the form of an 8-10 seed as well. They’ve been on the bubble the last two seasons and will pull it through this year. Lunardi projected them back in April in his first post-tourney Bracketology listing, so I’m not sure why they dropped.

Hard to believe the season kicks off in earnest this weekend. I’ll get a preview up sometime next week.

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

My Thoughts:
* I added in Stewart Mandel's picks from CNN/SI, though his fall in line with majority consensus on every game.

* With Penn State's loss to Iowa, both Alabama and Florida control their own destiny to play in the BCS Title game. As long as neither slips up against their final 2 regular season opponents, the loser of the clash in Atlanta will receive a Sugar Bowl Bid as a consolation prize.

* Please disregard any posts I may have made in the past weeks stating that Tennessee would rally around Fulmer's departure and win out. What a horrid performance they put on Saturday.

* And if anyone knows how to reach Cary Estes, the contributing writer for NBC.com, I'd love to hear if he thinks Auburn is going to knock off Georgia or Alabama to get their 6th win and wrap up an Independence Bowl bid.

* At least to me, it doesn't make sense for Kentucky to end up in Nashville for a 3rd straight season. The Bowl-Tie-In page on the SEC's site says:

In selections 6-7, the AutoZone Liberty and Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowls will make their selections, not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office. The Bowls will rank available qualified teams in order of preference. If there are no similarities in the order of selection, the bowls will be granted its selection. If the bowls rank the same teams in preference, the team involved in the process would get its preference of which bowl to participate.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl selects Ole Miss over UK, that's going to leave the 'Cats and (supposedly) Vanderbilt left as the 6th and 7th bowl-eligible teams. Obviously the Liberty Bowl would rank Vanderbilt ahead of Kentucky, but would the Music City Bowl rank Kentucky ahead of Vanderbilt on its list of preferences? And even if they did, would Kentucky really opt to head to Nashville again?

* I'm still not convinced that Vanderbilt wins another game this season to wrap up that Liberty Bowl bid. They're stuck in a pressure cooker at this point and with a shaky defense and shakier offense, win #6 is looking tougher.

* I like Bruce Feldman. I really do. He and Chris Low are the best two college football writers espn.com has. But there's no way that the Capital One Bowl deems LSU the most attractive non-BCS-Bowl-bound SEC team. Sitting at 3-3, they're going to have to work just to finish with a winning conference record. Ole Miss and Arkansas are certainly capable of knocking them off. Georgia is far and away the more attractive option there, especially considering the woodshed beating laid on the Tigers in Tiger Stadium.

I Can't Say I'm Surprised...

but it doesn't make this news any less mind-boggling.

EVERGREEN, Ala. — Authorities say an argument over Saturday's Alabama-LSU football game led to the shooting deaths of a couple at a home in southern Alabama.

Prosecutors identified the victims as Dennis and Donna Smith of Brewton. The shooting happened about 7 p.m. Saturday at the home of Michael Williams in the rural community of Owassa.

Williams was arrested and charged with two counts of murder.

Investigators told the Press-Register newspaper in Mobile that Dennis Smith, an LSU fan, called Williams, an Alabama fan, after Alabama's 27-21 overtime win and an argument ensued.

The Smiths went to Williams' home. Investigators said Smith had a pistol and Williams had a shotgun and fired. Donna Smith was a relative of Williams' girlfriend.

I can't even begin to wrap my mind around the idiocy of this. My guess is that neither the Smiths or Williams have ever stepped foot on the campus of Alabama or LSU (or any institute of higher learning for that matter). In my mind, in Williams' mugshot, I'm picturing unkempt facial hair and a mullet and possibly an "I'm With Stupid -->" shirt.

I just hope the state doesn't implode following this year's Iron Bowl - whatever the result is.

Week 11 SEC Bowl Projections

After a weekend of games that helped solidify the pecking order in the SEC, projections (for the most part) are starting to be a little more consistent.

My Thoughts:

* Despite being #1 in the country and the only undefeated team left in conference, no one's projecting Alabama to hang onto that spot and make it to the BCS Title Game. After Florida's performances the last 2 weeks, it's hard to blame them.

* Ole Miss is seemingly the hardest team for the pundits to get a read on. The 5 projections here have them going to 4 different bowls. No other team has more than 2.

* I tend to agree with CBS and Scout that Tennessee finds itself back in a bowl game to send Fulmer out. The remaining teams on Tennessee's schedule - Wyoming, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky - are certainly all winnable games.

* I also tend to agree with Scout that Vandy won't be bowling this year. Their 5-0 start was an aberration and a forgotten one at that. They've got 4 games left, but this weekend's beatdown by Florida may drain what little life the 'Dores have left.

* Give credit to Petrino and the Hogs for turning around what was certainly a disastrous start to the SEC season, but I don't see them beating LSU or South Carolina, one of which they'll have to do to play in a bowl.

* Would the Music City Bowl really want Kentucky again? They're already the 2-time defending Music City Bowl Champs? Isn't that enough?

* Apparently they feel that if the Independence Bowl can't have Alabama, they don't want any SEC team. Only 1 projection for the Indy Bowl, and it's for Arkansas, which I just don't see happening.

Rivals Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects

Yesterday, Rivals put up their early look at the NFL Draft Top 100 prospects. Needless to say, the SEC was well represented, landing 28 players on the list, including the top 3 spots. The wealth is spread out amongst the league as 10 teams land at least one player in the Top 100 and 7 teams have multiple players listed.

Given the SEC’s success churning out 1st round draft picks over last decade though, this should hardly be a surprise. It’s interesting to see the differences between Rivals and ESPN’s 2009 mock draft 1st round.

LSU leads the way with 6 players, followed by Florida with 5, Georgia with 4, Tennessee and Alabama with 3, Arkansas and Ole Miss with 2, and Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State with 1 a piece. Here’s a look at the players and what Rivals has to say about each.

* indicates underclassmen

1. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Oher has a rare blend of size, athleticism and girth. He entered the 2008 NFL draft, then pulled out a few days later even though he was considered a first-round pick. New coach Houston Nutt is glad he stayed. This time around, Oher – now a senior – could be the first player taken in the draft. He is No. 1 on the Rivals.com list of the top 100 pro prospects and could be the second consecutive offensive tackle chosen No. 1 overall; the Miami Dolphins took Michigan's Jake Long with the No. 1 pick earlier this year.

2. Andre Smith *, OT, Alabama
A massive tackle with great feet, in the mold of former first-round pick Shawn Andrews.

3. Matthew Stafford *, QB, Georgia
The most natural pocket passer in the nation. He has a skill set similar to Carson Palmer's.

12. Knowshon Moreno *, RB, Georgia
He is the most "natural" running back in the nation, with a combination of vision, quickness and balance. He has a good burst and a second gear.

16. Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
The best center prospect we have seen in the past five years.

18. Ricky Jean-Francois *, DT, LSU
Was the quickest and most disruptive LSU defensive lineman in the national championship game last season and, yes, that includes Glenn Dorsey.

20. Jermaine Cunningham *, DE, Florida
A compact, powerful end with speed, power and change-of-direction skill on the edge.

22. Herman Johnson, G, LSU
He's an amazing physical specimen at 6 feet 8 and 360 pounds who can move and re-direct in space. He's fluid and agile for a man his size.

23. Percy Harvin *, WR, Florida
An explosive athlete in space who can make a play any time he has the ball.

31. Tim Tebow *, QB, Florida
A dual run/pass threat who has all the intangibles. He can buy time in the pocket but needs to learn to read defenses more consistently in the passing game.

32. Geno Atkins *, DT, Georgia
Another explosive SEC three-technique defensive tackle. He will get a lot more attention from opposing linemen with the season-ending injury to Bulldogs DT Jeff Owens.

35. Derek Pegues, FS, Mississippi State
He is built and runs like a corner, but is a ballhawk as a safety.

36. Rico McCoy *, LB, Tennessee
Undersized but has the most impressive fluidity and range of any linebacker in the draft. He should really rise up draft boards.

39. Ciron Black *, OT, LSU
Displays a compact stance and moves well laterally. He can re-direct and has the quickness to reach the corner.

47. Greg Hardy *, DE, Ole Miss
His long limbs and speed make him difficult to block. He has the quickness to beat tackles outside or inside off the snap.

48. Brandon Spikes *, LB, Florida
A powerful linebacker who showcases good instincts inside, and does a nice job stacking and shedding versus the run.

53. Louis Murphy, WR, Florida
Showcases great deep speed and is a constant vertical threat. Is a raw route runner and lacks consistent hands.

57. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina
A smooth tackle who can handle speed off the edge. He is coordinated re-directing but needs to improve his technique.

58. Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
Has a great combination of power and athleticism. He is natural in space and gets a good push as an in-line run blocker.

64. Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia
A sideline-to-sideline athlete who has a nose for the ball and makes plays all over the field.

68. Sen'Derrick Marks *, DT, Auburn
A big-bodied tackle who can eat up space on the inside, and shows the power to push the pocket and anchor versus the double-team.

69. Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
Ideal for a zone-blocking scheme. He displays great feet and body control, and can really get out to the second level.

72. Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
Has a big, strong frame and is powerful attacking downhill. He has the athleticism to run sideline-to-sideline.
A strider who is sudden out of his breaks and does well going up and attacking the ball.

75. Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee
He's thickly built, with a compact frame. Has smooth lateral mobility and a strong punch, showcases good body control and never over-extends.

78. Keiland Williams *, RB, LSU
Dynamic with the ball in his hands, but lacks the girth and instincts to be successful between the tackles.

82. Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Possesses great size, length and suddenness off the edge. He needs to play with more power and more of a mean streak.

94. Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
Possesses great size and quickness through the tackles, but tries to run like a scatback too often and doesn't lower his head and drive for tough yards.

100. Terrence Cody *, DT, Alabama
Displays amazing athleticism for a man who weighs 370 pounds. He could really soar up draft boards with a strong season.

2008 SEC West Predictions

Every team in the West has questions this year - How will Auburn do running the spread for a full season? What kind of production will LSU get from its QBs? Will Alabama greatly improve in year 2 under Nick Saban? Can Houston Nutt win in Oxford with the talent Orgeron left him? How will Mississippi State score this year? How will Bobby Petrino do with inferior talent?

1. Auburn
Tuberville has established Auburn as one of the most consistent programs in America, but he shook things up last year after the Iron Bowl to implement the spread offense. They return nearly everyone on offense, so the transition should be a smooth one, but how it holds up for 12+ games remains to be seen. With all their tough games (except Alabama) at home, Auburn should win the West.

Best Case Scenario:
Kodi Burns steps in and plays like he's capable, the defense is strong, the Iron Bowl domination continues, and they end the season in the Sugar Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:
The offense sputters like it did early last season, the Tigers are embarrassed on national TV by West Virginia, the Iron Bowl trophy goes back to Tuscaloosa, and AU finishes the season in Shreveport

2. LSU
The defending BCS Champs will have a very different look this season with so many key departures from last season. They'll still field one of the top OLs and DLs in the SEC -thus the country - and have their typical stable of talented RBs. Now it's just a question of who's going to be under center. With road games at Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina in a 4-game stretch, it's hard to see the Bayou Bengals repeating as division champs.

Best Case Scenario
Steady QB play couple with trench-dominating lines lead LSU back to the BCS

Worst Case Scenario
Les Miles' magic 8-ball coaching decisions don't pan out like they did nearly every single time last year, QB play is sketchy, and the tough schedule proves too much and LSU winds up in Nashville

3. Alabama
Year 2 of the Nick Saban era begins with the Tide still sporting more talent than last year's team, a nice tandem of RBs and one of the most experienced QBs in the league. The Tide should be better this season and should will finish with back-to-back winning seasons for the second time since 1996. It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that the Tide could compete for the West, but road games at UGA, Tennessee, and LSU make it unlikely.

Best Case Scenario
Knocking off perennially overrated Clemson to open the season, finally beating Auburn, and facing UF in the SEC Championship Game

Worst Case Scenario
Bookend blowout losses to the season, ending up in the Papajohns.com Bowl or equivalent because Shreveport doesn't want them again

4. Ole Miss
After 3 of the worst non-Vandy years in recent SEC memory, Ole Miss fired Ed Orgeron and brought in Houston Nutt. Orgeron left plenty of talent for Nutt to work with, though much of it unproven, particularly in the offensive backfield. With a manageable schedule, the Rebels could be bowling by season's end, though that's certainly no guarantee. Nutt's teams always seems to knock off someone they're not supposed, but by the same token, he often drops the inexplicable games too.

Best Case Scenario
If everyone buys into the system and performs like they're capable, the Rebels could win 7-8 games this year and wind up in Memphis for the Liberty Bowl

Worst Case Scenario
QB Snead doesn't live up to hype, critical depth shortages at key positions prove disastrous, and the Golden Egg stays in Starkville while the Rebels endure a 5th straight season with no bowl game.

5. Mississippi State
While the Bulldogs were a great story last year, the reality was they were - perhaps - the worst 8-win team in SEC history. A stout, opportunistic defense paved the way for the team as the offense was inept at best. It's tough to see them duplicating that kind of success this season without scoring more points, but all signs indicate that's an unlikelihood. A soft schedule probably means a bowl game though.

Best Case Scenario
The offense improves while the defense stays strong and the Bullies catch a few more lucky breaks and wind up in a 2nd straight bowl game

Worst Case Scenario
The offense performs like it did in the Spring Game, the defense wears down from overuse and all the positive vibes from last season are long forgotten in an ugly year

6. Arkansas
Everything that can be said about the Arkansas coaching situation has been, so I'll leave it alone. The bottom line is that Petrino is stepping into a less-than-ideal situation talent-wise. He returns an experienced QB in Casey Dick, but is that really a good thing? Petrino may very well win at Arkansas, but it's not going to be this season.

Best Case Scenario
Even with all the lucky breaks this side of the moon, anything better than 6-6 is a pipe dream

Worst Case Scenario
If the more talented team wins every game played, the Hogs will win no more than 4 games

Random Links For a Wednesday

* ESPN has a good read about the incredible track record of the 12 SEC football coaches. Undoubtedly, the SEC's prominence starts at the top. Some key points from Pat Forde:

• Five coaches who own national championship rings. They are Steve Spurrier of South Carolina, Phillip Fulmer of Tennessee, Nick Saban of Alabama, Les Miles of LSU and Meyer himself.

• A sixth, Auburn's Tommy Tuberville, whose team went 13-0 in 2004 but did not get a chance to play for the title.

• Two more -- Mark Richt of Georgia and Bobby Petrino of Arkansas -- who have had 12-win seasons capped off by BCS bowl victories.

Then there is Houston Nutt of Mississippi, who won 10 games two years ago at Arkansas. And Rich Brooks of Kentucky, who took Oregon to its first Rose Bowl in 37 years and became the first Wildcats coach to win consecutive bowls in 56 years. And Mississippi State's Sylvester Croom, who is merely the reigning SEC Coach of the Year after leading the Bulldogs to their first bowl game since 2000. And Vanderbilt's Bobby Johnson, who led Furman to the Division I-AA championship game.

* Chris Low ranks the SEC 1-12. While there's not many surprises, something tells me the Tide Nation isn't impressed.

* They're probably much happier with Stewart Mandel's "Potential Sleeper" picks. His Bama breakdown:

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: In Saban, I trust. Yes, the Tide lost to Louisiana-Monroe last year. Yes, seemingly half their roster has been either injured or arrested this offseason. Still, I can't shake the feeling that Nick Saban will do exactly what he did in Year 2 at LSU: Throw a handful of his most touted freshmen on the field, turn up the intensity on defense and churn out nine or 10 wins.

* Mandel also toots Bobby Johnson's horn, naming him the "Most underrated coach in the nation". Color me unimpressed. Every year, media and fans alike rave about Johnson and every year the 'Dores do nothing. It's similar to the praise Kirk Ferentz would get at Iowa a few years back. But hey, to each his own.

* After a long wait, Kige Ramsey's SEC picks are finally in and presented in a way even a simpleton can understand - MINI PLASTIC HELMETS! Warning: The suspense before the SEC Championship Game winner is announced may be too much for some viewers.

There's no Place Like Home

Former Tide guard Antoine Pettway has clicked his heels together and is returning to Tuscaloosa to be an assistant coach on Gottfried's staff, replacing Kobie Baker. Pettway is most remembered by SEC fans for his Ruby Red slippers high tops and the layup he hit to beat Florida after the Gators apparently made a conscious decision not to guard him.(see video below)

And while it's a good story, I wonder why this hire was made though. He's part of the Tide Nation, no doubt, but wouldn't it have made more sense for Gottfried to have hired a veteran coach who could really teach his players something?

Not too much going on these days...

Other than what seems to be a twice-weekly occurrence of players being booted off teams, all's quiet for now. Well, except for Urban Meyer. Most of you have probably heard about this...

Simply calling Tim Tebow the best quarterback in college football apparently isn't enough. Gators coach Urban Meyer told a Miami audience that Tebow ''is the greatest player of our era.''

Tebow certainly has the potential to be the greatest player of this era, but I think it's premature to bestow that honor on him just yet. The MNC ring as a freshman and the Heisman as a sophomore put him in a class by himself, but he's got at least one year in college. SEC coaching staffs have had another full offseason to work on defensive schemes to slow him down. And, there are plenty of defenders across the SEC who will take a little extra joy popping the defending Heisman winner.

* ESPN loves to make up new statistics and shove them down our throats - OPS anyone? Their latest is to come up with (in their mind) the definitive way to measure the prestige of all college basketball programs since 1984-85, the year the tourney went to its current format. They've listed #s 41-50 here and #s 51-300 here.

I love the reasoning ESPN gives as to how these numbers are indisputable:

Normally when you see these rankings, they are the "expert" opinion of one or more people whose knowledge (and sanity) usually is questioned by those who disagree. But with ESPN's Prestige Rankings, there is no such argument. We let the numbers do the talking. We assigned point values for certain successes (win a national title, earn 25 points) and failures (get your program banned from the NCAA tournament, lose three points), put all the seasons through our big calculator and came up with the No. 1 program (and the No. 300 program) of the past 24 seasons.

But I digress.

So far, 8 of the SEC's 12 schools have shown up...
41. LSU
T-86. Mississippi State
T-90. Auburn
T-96. Vanderbilt
99. Tennessee
T-105. Georgia
T-185. South Carolina
T-192. Mississippi

...which leaves Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama. Without taking the time to do the math, It'll be interesting to see if UF or UK comes out on top for the SEC. Each has 2 championships and a title game loss. I'd imagine Alabama will be in the next group, Florida in the 20s, and Arkansas somewhere in the teens. Even with mediocre play lately you gotta figure UK is in the Top 10.

In the end though, it's just another excuse for ESPN to fawn over ACC basketball. Once the top 10 is unveiled Friday, you can count on Duke Vitale to show up on Sportscenter and go crazy for Dook and UNC.

*UPDATE: 7/22*As expected, Alabama shows up at #35. More than any other SEC team, Alabama had the most opportunity to be higher than they are. While Florida had some painful early exits in recent years, the Tide made it routine in the late 80s/early 90s.
*UPDATE: 7/23*Florida checks in at #21
*UPDATE: 7/24*Arkansas shows up at #15
*UPDATE: 7/25*>Kentucky ranks #4, based almost entirely on Pitino's utter dominance of the SEC when he there.

* Next time you think you're doing well at the gym, try not to think of UT OL Jacques McClendon and how he benched 645 pounds. And no that's not a typo...

* Fairly interesting read on BleacherReport today: 30 Fearless Predictions for the 2008 season

* Off topic, but if you haven't see The Dark Knight yet, what are you waiting for? Christopher Nolan's Batman franchise is what all other superhero franchises wish they were. Superman Returns was mediocre at best and, after Spiderman 3, that franchise is dead. Iron Man was good, but Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are in a league of their own when it comes to Superhero movies.

Top SEC Newcomers

Chris Low ranks the SEC's Top 10 Newcomers
1. Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss
2. Chris Rainey, RB, Florida
3. Demetrice Morley, S, Tennessee
4. Chris Todd, QB, Auburn
5. Raven Gray, DE, Auburn
6. Will Hill, S, Florida
7. Jerrell Harris, LB, Alabama
8. Enrique Davis, TB, Ole Miss
9. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
10. Blair Walsh, K, Georgia

Two each for the Gators, AU Tigers, Rebels, and Tide. He also includes DT Jerrell Powe and LB Patrick Trahan of Ole Miss and DE Gerald Williams and TE Brandon Warren UT. Each has the ability to be an impact player if they can get their classroom work taken care of. Powe in particular has been the subject of many a water-cooler conversation over the past few years in his seemingly never-ending saga. Former OM coach Ed Orgeron fought like a mad man to get Powe eligible, only be to be denied repeatedly. From what I'm hearing through the Ole Miss grapevine, Powe will be eligible this year, they're just waiting until after SEC Media Days to announce it as to not have to field the questions about it.

And, if you need a laugh, here are some stupid kids and hard metal basketball rims: