The Dead Guy's SEC site

Now I'm officially back

2009-03-16T20:34:00.000-07:00

Alright... this is officially the last post I'll ever make on this site as the new one is up and running. It's a work in progress, but I wanted to go ahead and get back on line. You can check it out at Rebelations.

Hotty Toddy and good night.

I'm back... or at least will be shortly

2009-03-10T06:38:00.000-07:00

Rumors of my demise have been only slightly exaggerated. It's been an... um... interesting first couple of months for me this year. In addition to all the stresses of every day life, I became a labor statistic in early January. Fortunately, I was able to fairly quickly remedy that situation and things have started to settle back into a rhythm.

The good news (or bad news, depending on who you ask) is that I plan to be back in the blogosphere in the next couple of week, just not here. I was starting to find the conference-wide look at things a little too much, so it's going to be a site focusing on my beloved... well, why ruin the surprise now? I'm getting some final things lined up and should have the new site up and running shortly.

As an aside on the SEC Tournament this weekend, OM, UK, MSU, UGA, LSU, and USC can all be grateful that Alabama, Vandy, and Auburn are on the same side of the bracket, as those are the three best teams in conference right now. Right now, I have a hard time picking against Auburn to win the tourney. Whether you're picking Auburn or your alma mater, you may want to check the line on the game before trying any online sports betting. The odds are posted for virtually all the games in almost any sport you can imagine. Have fun, but be responsible.

I think UK, MSU, Bama, and UF win on Thursday. LSU, MSU, AU, and Bama win Friday. MSU and AU win Saturday, and AU takes the trophy on Sunday.

Finebaum Ranks the SEC Coaches

2009-01-13T12:06:00.000-08:00

Shiny-headed blowhard Paul Finebaum ranks the SEC coaches in his latest column. In a shocking development, he pulls his lips off Nick Saban's ass long enough to rank him #2 in conference.

Bad YouTube Week for Auburn

2009-01-10T11:02:00.000-08:00

Don't mess with The Brando

Not really words for this one

Saturday 1/10/09 Basketball Picks

2009-01-10T10:10:00.000-08:00

SEC play kicks off this morning and it looks to be a good day to be a home team.

Tennessee @ Georgia
Raycom, 11:00AM

Tennessee exerts its inside muscle and wins this one easily.

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Raycom, 1:00PM

Patrick Patterson will be too much for Ogilvy and company to handle. 20+ more from Jodie Meeks and Kentucky opens SEC play 1-0.

Ole Miss @ Florida
FSN, 5:00PM

This had the potential to be a good game, but with the Rebels' injuries, hard to see them keeping pace with the up-tempo Gators.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas
FSN, 5:00PM

The Razorbacks have knocked off two much better teams than MSU at home the last couple of weeks, but I smell a barn-burner here. Too much Courtney Fortson in the end though. Arkansas wins the best game of the weekend.

Auburn @ South Carolina
No TV, 6:00PM

AU's Korvotney Barber poses a lot of matchup problems for USC's front court, but look for Devan Downey to will the Gamecocks to victory.

Sunday
LSU @ Alabama
Raycom, 12:30PM

The Tigers have been up and down so far in the early going, but the Tide has been just as inconsistent. Look for the Bayou Bengals to right their ship and get a tough road win to open the SEC slate.

SEC Basketball Power Poll, Week 1

2009-01-09T20:57:00.001-08:00

While I've been mired in real life the last several days, the rest of the voters from the SEC Football Power Poll ventured into the blogosphere and voted on the inaugural SEC Basketball Power Poll, hosted as usual by Garnet and Black Attack.

I will say this as the season gets under way... At least one of the trio of Mark Gottfried, Dennis Felton, and Jeff Lebo is unemployed by season's end, probably much sooner. At least one of these schools will see how LSU is doing this year and start the Anthony Grant sweepstakes early.

While I failed to get my ballot in on time, here's how it would've looked:

1. Arkansas
The Hogs are too young and inexperienced to hold this position all season, how can you not have them ranked here right now? They've knocked off 2 Top 10 teams this year and are playing at a very high level. Courtney Fortson is one of the best freshmen in the country.

2. Tennessee
Have struggled at times this year, but still the favorite to win the conference title. The Vols just need a little more stability from the PG slot.

3. Kentucky
Toss up right now between the 'Cats and Gators, but I give the slight edge to the 'Cats on the strength of PatPat down low.

4. Florida
Gators on a roll right now and have a chance to make some noise in the conference. Nick Calthes is one of the best all-purpose guys in the country.

5. LSU
They've been less than stellar in the non-conference slate, but the experience on this team will help them greatly once conference play starts.

6. South Carolina
With 4 guys in double figures, including All-SEC guard Devan Downey, the Gamecocks are one of the most balanced teams in the country. They've got a chance to move up when they finally beat someone of note.

7. Vanderbilt
A far cry from last year's remarkable start, but still solid. Today's game at Rupp will see what this team is made of.

8. Mississippi State
Lost a lot from last year's team, but returned the conference's top defender in Jarvis Varnado. When the style of play turns to ugly and defensive in conference play, he'll be invaluable.

9. Alabama
Talent + Mark Gottfried = underachievement more often than not.

10. Ole Miss
Pretty sure that OM coach Andy Kennedy would happily take a mulligan on this season, which has seen 3 of his top 4 guards go down with torn ACLs, not to mention an embarrassing arrest. The Rebs just don't have the depth to compete night in and night out.

11. Auburn
Korvotney Barber has picked up where he left off, but I still think this team has a lot of questions to answer once SEC play starts.

12. Georgia
Proving unequivocally that last year's SEC Tourney magic was a fluke. Dennis Felton is a great guy and a decent coach, but he's a dead man walking in Athens.

BCS Championship Game Preview

2009-01-06T18:34:00.001-08:00

(#1, #2)Florida (12-1) vs (#2, #1) Oklahoma (12-1)
BCS Championship Game
Miami, FL
January 8, 7:00 PM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: Florida 16-19, Oklahoma 24-16-1
Monday’s Line: Florida -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Oklahoma: 562.1 ypg, (3rd), 54.0 ppg (1st)
Florida: 442.4 ypg (17th), 45.2 ppg (3rd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Oklahoma: 359.1 ypg (63rd), 24.5 ppg (58th)
Florida: 279.3 ypg (7th), 12.8 ppg (4th)

Hard to really add to everything that’s already been said about this game all over the web and blogosphere. It’s 2 of the top programs in the country with 2 incredibly potent offenses battling it out on the biggest stage in college football. The anticipation of this game – at least for me – reminds me a lot of the classic USC/Texas game from 2006 Rose Bowl. The past 2 years, it’s been obvious who the winner would be before the games even started. Not so much this year.

Percy Harvin will play and says he’s at 90%, so take that for what it’s worth. When healthy, there’s not a team in the country who can handle the speed and versatility of the Gator offense, certainly not an OU defense ranked ~60 in total and scoring defense. The Gators will certainly have their hands full with Oklahoma’s offense, but if they can control the ball on offense and limit the time the ball’s in Bradford’s hands, they’ll be fine. That strategy worked to perfection for Ole Miss against the vaunted Texas Tech offense.

I do believe this will be a highly-entertaining game. I don’t believe it’ll be as high scoring as a lot of people think or hope for. Based on the recent past, it’s hard to pick against Urban Meyer or with Bob Stoops when it comes to BCS games. Given a month to prepare and heal, Florida should come on top of this one by a hair.

Florida 31, Oklahoma 28

SEC vs Big 12: A Comparison

2009-01-06T13:27:00.001-08:00

Click to make it bigger. That's what she said.
The Sporting News pulled together this comparison between the 2 conferences. While it offers no insight on Thursday night's Championship game, it's still an amusing read.

'Cause it's 1... 2... 3 strikes you're out...

2009-01-06T06:23:00.000-08:00

Can we have some sort of moratorium imposed on Ohio State when it comes to BCS Bowls? For 3 straight years, we've had to suffer through the Buckeyes slogging through one of the biggest games of the season, and for 3 straight years, we've watched them fail. And while I typically enjoy watching the Sweater Vest lose big game after big game, it's actually starting to get a little tiresome.

While some will argue that it's impressive the Buckeyes have made 3 straight BCS games, I propose that it's an indictment of the (lack of) quality of football in the Big10. As you watched that game last night, did you honestly say to yourself, "Wow, I'm watching one of the best football teams in America right now"? Or did you think "How bad is the Big10 that this team won 10 games?

The Big 10 went a pathetic 1-5 in bowl games this year. Their lone win was Iowa's thumping of South Carolina, a reeling team that hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since early October. The 6 losses included blowouts and heartbreakers, but all 6 ended up losses. I recognize that Big10 has some history and tradition, particularly when it comes to being a sacrificial lamb for the Pac10 in the Rose Bowl, but right now, that's all it has. It's a subpar conference that's won just 1 BCS game in the last 5 years.

Sugar Bowl Preview

2008-12-31T14:36:00.001-08:00

(#4, #4)Alabama (12-1) vs (#7, #9) Utah (12-0)
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA
January 2, 7:00 PM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: Alabama 31-21-3, Utah 10-3
Monday’s Line: Alabama -9.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Utah: 403.6 ypg, (32nd), 37.4 ppg (15th)
Alabama: 367.2 ypg (56th), 31.2 ppg (30th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Utah: 295.9 ypg (17th), 17.3 ppg (12th)
Alabama: 256.9 ypg (3rd), 13.0 ppg (6th)

The Crimson tide will wrap up another memorable season in its long, storied history Friday night with its 13th appearance in the Sugar Bowl. They’ll take on an undefeated Utah Utes team that first crashed the BCS in 2005, spanking Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl.

Much of the news this week has focused on the suspension of All-America LT Andre Smith. The Outland Trophy award winner violated unspecified team rules and will miss the final game of the season, and possibly his career. This puts added pressure on QB John Parker Wilson to make smart, accurate throws to prevent the Utes from stacking the box to take away the Tide’s power running game.

Smith’s absence won’t affect the Tide’s defensive gameplan though. That’s where the Tide have excelled all season, ranking in the top 6 in both total defense and scoring defense. And while the Utes certainly present a new set of challenges, some of what they run is similar to Florida’s attack, just without Tebow at the helm. Utah senior QB Brian Johnson is certainly no slouch though, throwing for 2600+ yds and 24 TDs on the season.

There’s no doubt that Andre Smith will be missed, but his absence won’t be enough to derail the Tide. This Alabama team is too sound and too disciplined to have a hiccup against a team that is not more talented. Saban will have the Tide ready to play and the SEC will continue its BCS dominance.

Alabama 24, Utah 14

Liberty Bowl Preview

2008-12-31T13:03:00.000-08:00

Kentucky (6-6) vs East Carolina (9-4)
Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN
January 2, 4:00 PM
All Time Series: Kentucky 1-0
All Time Bowl Records: Kentucky 7-5, East Carolina 8-6
Monday’s Line: East Carolina -3

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
East Carolina: 336.0 ypg (86th), 23.8 ppg (78th)
Kentucky: 298.4 ypg (105th), 22.4 ppg (87th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
East Carolina: 334.8 ypg (43rd), 20.8 ppg (31st)
Kentucky: 327.0 ypg (34th), 21.7 ppg (38th)

Friday’s Liberty Bowl will be just the 2nd meeting between these 2 schools all time, the other a 6-3 game in Lexington in 1993. With both teams sporting mediocre offenses and decent defenses, this game may not be too much higher scoring than that one was. Kentucky has lost 3 games in a row and 6 of 8 while ECU has 6 of 7, including knocking off Tulsa in the CUSA Championship game.

Kentucky will be playing this one without their starting QB, true freshman Randall Cobb. Cobb took over for Michael Hartline after the ‘Cats offense began to sputter in conference play. While Cobb was not spectacular, he did bring a level of excitement to the offense with his ability to tuck the ball and run. That dimension will be missed against a solid Pirates’ D.

After 2 weeks of football, the Pirates were the talk of the nation after knocking off West Virginia and Virginia tech to open the season. While they hit a rough patch – lost 3 in a row to NCSt, Houston, and Virginia, they’ve rallied nicely in the late season. QB Pinkney is steady – 2379 yards, 12/7 TD/INT ratio – particularly considering the ineptitude of the Pirates’ 84th ranked ground game.

The talk at the beginning of the season was about the UK D that only gave up a total of 22 points to its 4 non-conference foes. Once the SEC slate began – and the injuries mounted – the ‘Cats struggle on both sides of the ball, knocking off only Arkansas (in a miraculous Cobb-fueled comeback) and Mississippi State. East Carolina certainly has the momentum headed into this one.

When this one’s all said and done, the ‘Cat will just be too inept offensively to win this game. While it’s been a good story that this is only the 2nd UK team to play in 3 straight bowls, the simple fact is that they’re average at best on both sides of the ball. While the extra bowl practices this year will certainly pay dividends next season, it’ll be another bowl loss for the SEC this year.

East Carolina 17, Kentucky 13

Cotton Bowl Preview

2008-12-31T11:33:00.000-08:00

(#20, #24)Ole Miss (8-4) vs (#8, #8)Texas Tech(11-1)
Cotton Bowl
Dallas, TX
January 2, 1:00 PM
All Time Series: Tied 2-2
All Time Bowl Records: Ole Miss 19-12, Texas Tech 10-20-1
Wednesday’s Line: Texas Tech -4.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Texas Tech: 536.2 ypg (4th), 44.6 ppg (4th)
Ole Miss: 398.4 ypg (37th), 30.8 ppg (32nd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Texas Tech: 371.6 ypg (72nd), 26.3 ppg (66th)
Ole Miss: 294.8 ypg (14th), 17.8 ppg (14th)

In what should be one of the best bowls of the season, streaking Ole Miss takes on potent Texas Tech in the final Cotton Bowl played at the fairgrounds in Dallas. It’s the 5th meeting between the 2 schools, and a homecoming of sorts for Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, a native Texan. Both teams enter the game hot as the Rebels have won 5 straight games and the Red Raiders are 11-1, though suffered a humbling blowout to Oklahoma.

If the Rebels are going to stay in this game, they’ll need to play the same kind of defense they’ve played over the last 4 games where they’ve given up just 20 points and pitched 2 shutouts. The defensive line – led by All-American Peria Jerry – has been unblockable. It will be a tough task though, as Texas Tech ranks 5th in the nation in protecting the QB, giving up just 11 sacks in 12 games. The Red Raiders also lead the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed (2.95 per game) while the Rebels lead the country in tackles for loss with 8.92 per game.

The majority of TTU’s yards come after the catch. QB Harrell throws a lot of quick, underneath passes and screens and lets his talented WRs do the rest. It will be a true test for the Ole Miss defensive front to disrupt Tech’s rhythm.

On the flip side, the Red Raiders will have their hands full stopping the Rebel attack. QB Snead has really come on in the second half of the season and the “Wild Rebel” has been an effective option for the Rebels as well. TTU hasn’t played against an offense like Ole Miss’ this year, so it will be interesting to see how they adjust.

If you want to stop Texas Tech, you’ve got to get pressure on Harrell. He’s shown to be average throwing the ball on the run. Outside of USC and Oklahoma, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more dominant defensive line in the country than the Rebels’. While the Ole Miss secondary is average at best, the front 7 will be able to get plenty of pressure and force TTU turnovers. Look for the Rebs’ remarkable turnaround season to be capped with an upset of the Red Raiders in Dallas.

Ole Miss 31, Texas Tech 30

Capital One Bowl Preview

2008-12-30T14:56:00.000-08:00

(#16, #17)Georgia (9-3) vs (#19,#19)Michigan State (9-3)
Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL
January 1, 11:00 AM
All Time Series: Georgia 1-0
All Time Bowl Records: Georgia 24-16-3, Michigan State 7-11
Tueusday’s Line: Georgia -7.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Michigan State: 352.4 ypg (67th), 26.2 ppg (56th)
Georgia: 433.9ypg (20th), 32.1 ppg (29th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Michigan State: 357.9 ypg (61st), 21.9 ppg (40th)
Georgia: 318.3 ypg (28th), 25.6 ppg (63rd)

We’re 4 games into the SEC Bowl slate and finally a favorable matchup for the SEC. While Georgia certainly has fallen short of preseason expectations, this is still a remarkably talented team that’s capable of beating anyone in the country on any given day. Michigan State is a something of a surprise to be here, but rode workhorse RB Javon Ringer to an impressive 9-3 record, albeit in the Big10.

Nothing about this MSU team really jumps out at you besides Ringer, who’s rushed for nearly 1600 yds and 21 TDs. The defense is average and the passing game certainly leaves something to be desired. They’ve been beaten by a combined 94-25 against the other 2 ranked teams they’ve faced this year.

Sure, the ‘Dawgs run D was gouged for 409 yards last time out against Georgia Tech, but the Spartans feature a more basic, pro-style run game with Ringer. There’s a much smaller likelihood that the UGA defenders will repeatedly get caught so far out position play after play like they did against GTU. They’ll also know where the ball is going as Ringer has carried the ball close to 350 times this season already.

Despite the (lack of) effort against GTU, UGA still ranks in the top 40 rush defenses in the country, allowing 129.5 ypg on the ground. Before the GTU debacle, the Dawgs were allowing just over 100 ypg. They’ll bounce back with a solid effort against Ringer who’ll come nowhere near his self-described perfect game of “25 carries, 200 yards, 3 TDs, and win”. The only one of those stats he’ll approach will be the carries.

This Michigan State team is good, but certainly not great. If the ‘Dawgs show up to play, this one won’t be close. There’s too much offensive firepower for an average Sparty D to try and contend with and Ringer will struggle to consistently produce against the 8 and 9-man boxes he’ll be facing. This may or may not be the swan song for Stafford and Moreno in a UGA uniform, but they’ll end this season as big winners.

Georgia 34, Michigan State 17

Outback Bowl Preview

2008-12-30T14:21:00.000-08:00

South Carolina (7-5) vs Iowa (8-4)
Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL
January 1, 10:00 AM
All Time Series: First Meeting
All Time Bowl Records: South Carolina 4-9, Iowa 11-10-1
Tuesday’s Line: Iowa -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Iowa: 373.9 ypg (52nd), 30.3 ppg (34th)
South Carolina: 316.8 ypg (97th), 21.7 ppg (92nd)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Iowa: 289.5 ypg (13th), 13.3 ppg (8th)
South Carolina: 288.9 ypg (12th), 20.3 ppg (30th)

Two teams headed in opposite directions clash Thursday morning in the 2009 Outback Bowl. The Gamecocks limp in to the game having lost 3 of 5 and mustering just 20 points the last two games. Iowa has won 5 of 6, including handing Penn State its only loss of the season. With both teams featuring stout defenses, this could be one of the harder-hitting, lower scoring games of the Bowl season.

South Carolina has enjoyed success in the Outback Bowl over the years, smacking down the hapless Buckeyes in both 2001 and 2002. Though Spurrier is just 7-7 in bowl games all time, he’s 4-1 against the Big 10, as he’s typically had the team speed that our neighbors to the North so sorely lack. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this year. While there’s certainly defensive talent and some speed at the WR position, inconsistent QB play combined with no running game landed the Gamecocks here instead of a big bowl.

Another blow for the Gamecocks is that they’ll be without their leading tackler and arguably their most important defender S Emmanuel Cook, who is academically ineligible for the game. With Iowa’s offense featuring (an undeserved) Doak Walker Award winner in Shonn Greene, Cook’s leadership and run-stuffing talents will be missed.

Iowa has been in every game it’s played this season, losing 4 games by a combined 12 points. While the running game has been consistent all season, the passing game has been steady lately as QB Ricky Stanzi threw for nearly 1000 yards and had an 8/3 TD/INT ratio over the last 6 weeks. He’ll certainly be tested against South Carolina’s 3rd rank pass defense, which gives up just passing 160.3 ypg, though that’s with Cook playing.

This is the third bowl game in a row to open bowl season where it’s just not a favorable matchup for the SEC team. The Gamecocks will struggle to maintain any sort of drives against Iowa’s stout defense, particularly with zero production from their RBs. While the SC defense should bottle up the Hawkeyes early, Iowa will continue to pound the ball and eventually Greene will break a big run.

I can’t find a legitimate reason to pick South Carolina to win this one. Aside from the season opener against NCSt and the offensive explosion in Oxford, this has been a mediocre team all season. The Gamecocks haven’t been able to do much on the ground all season, and it won’t magically start Thursday. While I don’t see the blowout or domination that many are predicting, I also don’t see the Gamecocks pulling the upset.

Iowa 17, South Carolina 13

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Preview

2008-12-29T13:59:00.001-08:00

LSU (7-5) vs (#14, #14)Georgia Tech (9-3)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA
December 31, 6:30 PM
All Time Series: Georgia Tech 14-6
All Time Bowl Records: Boston College 22-14, Vanderbilt 20-18-1
Monday’s Line: Georgia Tech -4

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Georgia Tech: 377.2 ypg (46th), 26.2 ppg (56th)
LSU: 371.8 ypg (54th), 30.3 ppg (30.3)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Georgia Tech: 312.7 ypg (22nd), 18.8 ppg (22nd)
LSU: 326.5 ypg (33rd), 24.9 ppg (64th)

This is not exactly what LSU fans had in mind before the season began, wrapping up a disappointing season before the change of the year. On the other side of the field, not many predicted that Georgia Tech would rebound from its recent mediocrity to win 9 games running Paul Johnson’s triple option.

Despite stellar talent on both sides of the ball, offensive and defensive inconsistencies have plagued the Tigers all season. Their remarkable +20 turnover margin last season fell to -4 this year as well. All-SEC RB Charles Scott is a load on offense, but with no reliable passing game, his numbers have tailed off some in the second half of the season.

While LSU has struggled all season against the pass, they’ve stopped the run consistently all season. The Tigers currently rank 16th in the country, giving up just 105.67 rush ypg. GTU won’t be intimidated, as they just ran for 409 yards against a Georgia team that was giving up just over 100 ypg on the ground in the season finale. The Yellow Jackets feature the ACC Offensive Player of the Year in Jonathan Dwyer, who led the ACC with 110.7 ypg rushing and was 2nd with 13 TDs. He’s rushed for 100+ yds 9x this season, including 4 straight.

As it stands, these teams are somewhat similar in playing styles. Both feature a tough run defense, tough RBs, and QBS who’d just as soon hand off. LSU ranks 67th in the country with 204.5 passing ypg, while GTU comes in at #117 with a whopping 95 ypg. I expect that GTU will pass a bit more than normal this game to take advantage of LSU’s 81st ranked secondary.

This is still the defending national champion and there is still a lot of talent on the field. Unfortunately for LSU fans, they’re not playing well together as a unit. While I don’t think that the Jackets will run wild like they did against UGA, they’ll run enough to take advantage of LSU’s porous pass defense. The difference in this game will be the Yellow Jacket defense. With a one-dimensional offense, LSU will have trouble moving the ball against the Ramblin’ Wreck. This should be one of the best non-BCS games of the Bowl Season, but unfortunately, another where the SEC comes out the loser.

Georgia Tech 27, LSU 21

Music City Bowl Preview

2008-12-29T11:19:00.000-08:00

Vanderbilt (6-6) vs (#24, NR)Boston College (9-4)
Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
December 31, 2:30 PM
All Time Series: Boston College 2-0
All Time Bowl Records: Boston College 13-6, Vanderbilt 1-1-1
Monday’s Line: Boston College -3.5

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank):
Boston College: 318.9 ypg (94th), 25.5 ppg (61st)
Vanderbilt: 260.9 ypg (118th), 19.4 ppg (104th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank):
Boston College: 273.4 ypg (6th), 18.5 ppg (18th)
Vanderbilt: 318.7 ypg (29th), 20.1 ppg (27th)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: No matter what happens Wednesday night in the Music City Bowl, it’s a remarkable accomplishment for this Vanderbilt team to have made it to a bowl game. With the losses from last year’s team, the consensus was that VU would bring up the rear of the SEC East, with College Football guru Phil Steele even predicting an 0-8 SEC slate.

Now for the reality: This Vanderbilt team was playing bad football at the end of the season. They enter Wednesday’s game with Boston College having lost 6 of 7 games, including a road game at woeful Mississippi State and an inexplicable home loss to Dook. Offensively, VU has struggled all season and this Eagle defensive unit is particularly stingy. They lead the country in interceptions with 26 and returned 5 for TDs, which is tied for best in the country. It will be very tough for the ‘Dores to generate any sort of consistent offense.

It’s a good thing for the Eagles their defense has been so tough, as the offense has been up and down as they searched for a replacement for QB Matt Ryan, who just led the ATL Falcons to an 11-5 record. The current starter is Dominique Davis who took over after a broken collarbone sidelined Chris Cane. BC has won 4 of 5, dropping a 30-12 game last time out to VaTech in the ACC Title Game.

The common logic is that the team that’s happier to be there will more often than not win the bowl game. Certainly the Commodores are thrilled to be in any bowl and the Eagles may be a little disappointed as they were one win away from an Orange Bowl bid. I just don’t see it though. All this BC program does is win bowl games, and they’ll do it again Tuesday afternoon.

Boston College 24, Vanderbilt 6

I'm Back in the Blogosphere

2008-12-29T09:58:00.001-08:00

After an extended absence preparing for, celebrating, and recuperating from Christmas with a hyper-stimulated 3 year old, I'm back. SEC Bowl season starts in a couple of days and I'll start getting previews up this afternoon.

Thanks to those who emailed during my hiatus. It's good to be back.

SEC Power Poll All-SEC Team Defense

2008-12-19T12:52:00.000-08:00

I’m a day late on this, but the SEC Power Poll All-SEC Defense and Special Teams have been announced. Check out the following links to see who we voted.

The Red Solo Cup: Defensive Line
Garnet and Black Attack: Linebackers
Save the Shield: Cornerbacks
Gate 21: Safeties
UK Wildcat Country: Special Teams (coming soon)

The Sporting News Rates the Bowls

2008-12-19T08:56:00.000-08:00

The Sporting News has ranked the Bowl Games 1-34 and it’s a little different from Rivals' picks. Here’s how TSN sees the SEC games.

1. BCS Title Game
There’s major pressure on Florida’s young defense and Oklahoma’s banged-up group to make a handful of stops and force a turnover or two.

3. Cotton Bowl
A curious case here for erratic Tech, which could roll with 10 touchdowns or fold after a poor regular-season finish. Ole Miss, with road wins over Florida and LSU, won’t be intimidated by the Red Raiders.

10. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Nothing like Paul Johnson’s triple option in the background to ring in the new year.

13. Sugar Bowl
Smell a barnburner? You’re not alone.

15. Capital One Bowl
This might be the last go-around for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno at Georgia

22. Outback Bowl
The game’s a scout’s dream and a fan’s nightmare.

30. Liberty Bowl
Not much talent on the field for this one.

32. Music City Bowl
What time does Opryland close New Year’s Eve?

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Last Call for Bowl Mania Players

2008-12-19T08:16:00.001-08:00

If you want to get in the Dead Guy SEC Group on ESPN's College Bowl Mania, do it today or tomorrow morning. The first game - the all important EagleBank Bowl - kicks off tomorrow morning at 10AM CST.

I'll send out a $10 Amazon Gift Card to the winner. Good Luck!

Thursday Afternoon Linkage

2008-12-18T14:20:00.000-08:00

* It’s meaningless and inherently flawed, but quick… name the SEC school ranked highest in the New America Foundation’s 2nd Annual BCS Academic Standings. For the 99% of you that said Vanderbilt, you’re wrong. It’s Ole Miss.

The NFA’s formula starts with the team's most recent federal graduation rate, which includes four classes of players who entered college between 1998 and 2001 and graduated within six years of initial enrollment. Then, each team gains or loses points based on (A) the gap between the team's graduation rate and the overall school's graduation rate and (B) the gap between the team's black-white player graduation rate disparity and the overall school's disparity. Finally, the team gains or loses points if its Academic Progress Rate exceeds or falls below the Division I-A median.

* Chris Low runs down the Top 25 players in the SEC. Alabama leads the way with 7. Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss check in with 3 a piece, while LSU and Tennessee have 2 each.

* Auburn’s questionable hire of Gene Chizik has raised more than a few eyebrows across the SEC and the blogosphere ( I know, who knew?). Pat Forde grades the recent SEC hires and drops this gem:

Maybe Chizik will be the next Bill Parcells -- he went 3-8 in his first year as a head coach, at the Air Force Academy in 1978 -- before turning out all right. But until that happens, this has the makings of the worst hire in SEC history.

Dan Wetzel shares a similar viewpoint.

* Jason Whitlock is dead on again. While race may or may not have been a determining factor in Auburn’s passing on the more-talented Turner Gill for the Ed Orgeron Redux that is Gene Chizik, Auburn may not have been the right fit for Gill at this point of his career.

Andy Kennedy arrested

2008-12-18T09:36:00.000-08:00

Thanks to the people who emailed about Ole Miss basketball coach Andy Kennedy's excitement earlier this morning. For those who haven't seen it, Kennedy was arrested this morning in Cincinnati and charged with misdemeanor assault of a 25 year old cab driver, whom he allegedly struck with a closed fist and yelled racial epithets at.

While all the facts have yet to come out, there are conflicting stories, so there's hardly a need to crucify the guy just yet. A Cincinnati beat writer who covered Kennedy in his days on Huggins' staff had this to say:

Yep, actually talked to Someone Who Would Know just a few minutes ago. He said the cabbie dropped a racial slur on a member of Andy's party as they got into the cab... AK and his four companions, all his assistant coaches, got out of the cab and hailed another. As they were on their way back to their hotel, cops pulled them over and charged AK with assault.

My source said AK assaulted no one and has 4 eyewitnesses to swear to it. Given what I know of Kennedy from having covered him as a head coach and as Huggins' top assistant, I believe this account.

While it's quick and easy to judge Kennedy in this situation, remember the Duke lacrosse scandal. It's not public yet what actually transpired last night in Cincinnati. Kennedy "emphatically denies" the assault and making any racial slurs. It may be a few hours or a few days before all the facts are out.

It's hard to imagine that Kennedy will coach tonight against Louisville though. Ole Miss was a prohibitive underdog (~15 points) before this went down. It will be tough for his young team to stay focused after this distraction. As a Southerner, I'd like to believe the incident didn't go down as originally reported, with Kennedy lobbing racial slurs at the man as he pounded in the face with a "closed fist". I'd like to think reality lies closer to the version suggested by the Cincy beat writer.

Only time will tell.

***UPDATE***
Okay, so Andy Kennedy will coach tonight, which makes me think even more that this is blown out of proportion. Kennedy obviously refused to comment about the situation, but given the Ole Miss AD is allowing him to coach tonight, there must be something that points to a big misunderstanding.

***UPDATE AGAIN***
So now this is just getting weird. According to the Jackson Clarion Ledger, the situation that Kennedy described to his brother is completely different from the police report.

***UPDATE THE THIRD***
If this is true, it's a remarkable 180 from this morning. It's becoming more and more like a smaller version of the Duke Lacrosse scandal. Pull on the heartstrings of an overly PC, scoop-hungry media a bit and you can accuse anyone you want of of anything you want at anytime.

A Closer Look at the AP All-American Teams

2008-12-17T19:40:00.001-08:00

With all the talk of the SEC being down a bit this year, only the Big 12 landed more players (18) on the 2008 AP All-American teams than the SEC’s 14. Not surprisingly, the Big 12 is heavy on the offensive side of the ball, landing 14 offensive players on the 3 teams. The SEC was second with 7. The ACC led all conferences with 9 All-American defensive players. The SEC was second with 7.

Here’s a look at how it breaks down by conference, by All-America team, 1st – 3rd.

While football is undoubtedly a bona fide team sport, you’ve got to have individual talent to win. The argument can rage for days about whether the Big 12 offenses are that good or the defenses are that bad. The exact opposite question is applied to the SEC. Unfortunately, there’s no answers to that here, or anywhere until the bowl games are played.

As a side note, SECSports lists only 13 SEC players on its website, but they missed LSU’s Herman Johnson, which is remarkably tough to do, given his stature.

SEC Power Poll All-SEC Team: Running Backs

2008-12-17T12:56:00.001-08:00

As mentioned earlier, the SEC Power Poll voters have compiled an All-SEC team of our own. We voted on each position and are now revealing our results. The offense is being revealed today with the defense following later this week.

You can see the QB at Alligator Army, the Tight End at Leftover Hotdog, and the Offensive Line and Wide Receivers at TeamSpeedKills.

This year's winners for top RBs in the league are UGA's Knowshown Moreno and Alabama's Glen Coffee.

While UGA might not have enjoyed the type of season it had hoped for, it's not because of Moreno. He was electrifying week in and week out, rolling up 7 100-yard games as he and backfield buddy QB Matthew Stafford led the 'Dawgs to 32.1 ppg, 2nd best in the conference. He averaged 5.9 ypc and tallied at least 1 TD in every game except the Tennessee game.

While Moreno and UGA got the majority of the preseason hype, Glen Coffee and the Tide made it abundantly clear early and often that they were not to be trifled with. While Coffee certainly benefited from Alabama's monstrous offensive line, he - and fellow RB Mark Ingram - were the steadying forces for Alabama's ball control offense. Coffee registered 5 100-yard games and averaged a robust 6.1 ypc. His numbers could've been much higher, but he split time with Ingram

Here's a look at their numbers and conference ranks*:

Rush Yards Per Game
Knowshon Moreno 111.5 (1)
Glen Coffee 102.9 (3)

Total Rushing Yards
Knowshon Moreno 1338 (1)
Glen Coffee 1235 (2)

Rushing TDs
Knowshon Moreno 16 (1)
Glen Coffee 9 (3)

Total Yards From Scrimmage
Knowshon Moreno 1667 (1)
Glen Coffee 1306 (3)

*regular season games only

Knowshon Moreno
We've all seen this one 1000 times...

...and this one too...

Glen Coffee
He's literally untouched on this...

... and a very nice featurette on SportsCenter

Gene Chizik? Seriously?

2008-12-13T15:21:00.000-08:00

Okay, so now I'm just confused. Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, a proven winner with a 70% winning percentage over Alabama, and hires Gene Chizik, a guy with 2 years of head coaching experience under his belt and 5 total wins. Tuberville had 5 wins in the season that got him fired.

Auburn fans have to look at themselves now and realize that Mississippi State did a better job hiring a football coach. Mississippi State. In Starkville, MS. That's a sobering dose of reality for a program that just last year was among the most consistent winners in the country.

After thinking about, I've come up with a few explanations as to why Jay Jacobs would fire Tuberville to hire Gene Chizik:

Chizik has compromising photographs of Jacobs... possibly something with farm animals or leather

Jacobs was unable to resist hiring Chizik after Nick Saban triple dog dared him to, despite the slight breach of etiquette by skipping the "triple dare"

The spirit of Bear Bryant possessed the body of Jacobs and forced him to the make the most damaging, idiotic hire possible

Jacobs wants to set the bar as low as possible for himself so that all his future decisions will seem brilliant in comparison to this one

Can anybody else come up with an idea or two as to why this hire was made?

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My All-SEC Team

2008-12-13T15:04:00.000-08:00

The voters in the SEC Power Poll are voting on the All-SEC team. The team will be announced on a variety of sites of Power Poll voters early next week. See below for my votes. Who did I miss?

My Ballot:

Offense:
QB: Tim Tebow (UF)
RB: Knowshown Moreno(UGA)
RB: Charles Scott (LSU)
WR: Percy Harvin (UF)
WR: AJ Green (UGA)
TE: DJ Williams (Ark)
C: Jonathan Luigs (Ark)
OL: Andre Smith (UAT)
OL: Michael Oher (OM)
OL: Herman Johnson (LSU)
OL: Ciron Black (LSU)

Defense:
DL: Peria Jerry (OM)
DL: Terrence Cody (UAT)
DL: Antonio Coleman(AU)
DL: Robert Ayers (UT)
LB: Brandon Spikes (UF)
LB: Eric Norwood (USC)
LB: Rolando McClain(UAT)
CB: DJ Moore (VU)
CB: Trevard Lindley (UK)
S: Eric Berry (UT)
S: Rashad Johnson (UAT)

Special Teams:
K: Joshua Shene (OM)
P: Tim Masthay (UK)
KR: Brandon James (UF)
PR: Javier Arenas (UAT)

Move over Archie Griffin

2008-12-12T14:38:00.001-08:00

Shotgun Spratling at the Blue Work Horse hosted voting for the Sports Blog Heisman Trophy Winner. More than 70 bloggers from across the blogosphere submitted votes and Tim Tebow brings home the e-trophy.

For all the insight and detailed voting, check out the Blue Work Horse.

See my ballot here.

What now Auburn?

2008-12-12T12:05:00.001-08:00

We’re currently in Day 10 since Tommy Tuberville was fired resigned from Auburn. In 10 seasons on the Plains, Tuberville was 85-40 overall and 52-30 in conference games. Most importantly, he was 7-3 against Alabama. And yet, as more details come out about his dismissal, the sketchier it seems.

Remember the scene from American Beauty where Kevin Spacey was supposed to defend his job to his new boss, but instead writes how he really feels? And then he ends up blackmailing his boss to pay him a year’s salary after he quits? That’s what comes to my mind when I try to process Jacobs’ BS.

This is starting to look more and more like what Ole Miss did to Cutcliffe in 2004 by the minute. As most remember, Cutcliffe had a winning record his first 5 seasons at Ole Miss before a 4-7 campaign in 2004. He was asked to make changes by his AD, refused, and found himself on the street. More than 2 weeks later, after interviewing several candidates, the Rebels somehow selected Ed Orgeron.

The list of coaches Jacobs is interviewing is underwhelming at best. Even former DC Will Muschamp doesn’t want the Tigers’ money. Neither does Spurrier. Besides, who of those candidates would be a decided upgrade from Tuberville. When Syracuse fired Gregg Robinson or Mississippi State fired Sylvester Croom, nobody thought twice about it. Neither could coach or recruit well enough to win. But Tuberville did. He did it in Oxford. And he sure as hell did it on the Plains.

I understand that this was a tense season for Auburn. The offensive woes reached an all-time high (or low?) this season. Tuberville admitted as much as shouldered the blame for the failed experiment. Meanwhile, across the state, Nick Saban took Alabama to one quarter away from playing for the BCS title in just his second season in Tuscaloosa. While the kneejerk reaction may be panic, it seems foolish to fire a guy who produced a consistent winner for a decade.

Which of the candidates will have Tiger fans saying “Whew, I’m glad we got rid of Tuberville for that guy”? Sure Brady Hoke has put together a nice 2-year run in Muncie, but is he ready for the big time? Turner Gill is certainly a great story, but is he an upgrade over Tuberville? Derek Dooley? Rodney Garner? Patrick Nix? These are the guys you’re going to replace Tuberville with?

The longer this drags out, the worse it is for Auburn. With the football power in the stat clearly shifting back to Tuscaloosa, now is an inopportune time to have uncertainty at your program. But that’s the bed that Jay Jacobs and Bobby Lowder have made, so now they get to lie in it. If he's comfortable lying behind a podium, a bed should be no problem.

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Rivals ranks the SEC Bowl Games

2008-12-11T18:12:00.000-08:00

Rivals has ranked the bowl games from 1-34 in terms of intrigue and interest. With 68 teams making the postseason these days, there are quite a few games that even alumni probably can’t get up for. Of the 8 SEC games, 5 rank pretty high (top 13). The other 3… not so much.

Here’s how Rivals sees it:

1. BCS National Championship Game, Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1):
It's for the national title, which makes it No. 1 on this list. The past two title games have been decided by a total of 41 points. That may be the number of points needed to win this one.

6. Sugar Bowl, Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0):
Utah has a lot to prove, despite its unbeaten record. Will Alabama suffer any kind of hangover from its SEC title game loss?

7. Capital One Bowl, Georgia (9-3) vs. Michigan State (9-3):
An intriguing Big Ten-SEC matchup. Michigan State can't pass, but TB Javon Ringer had a great season and Georgia's defense has had trouble against the run. And can Michigan State slow Georgia TB Knowshon Moreno? In their three losses, the Spartans' defense was run over.

9. Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1):
Ole Miss has a good front four, and if you can harass Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, he becomes an average quarterback. But only one team was really able to harass him this season. Watch Ole Miss junior DE Greg Hardy, who could declare for the draft. Hardy could make himself quite a bundle of money with a big game.

13. Chick-fil-A Bowl, Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5):
This basically is a home game for the Yellow Jackets, who will be playing a few miles from their campus in downtown Atlanta. LSU comes in having lost three of their past four. If the Tigers' defense doesn't awaken from its season-ending slumber, LSU is going to finish 7-6 one season after winning the national title.

22. Outback Bowl, Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5):
Iowa runs well but can't throw. South Carolina runs poorly and would like to throw but can't. At least both play good defense.

26. Music City, Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6):
Vanderbilt comes in having lost six of its past seven. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us. BC, by the way, holds the nation's longest current bowl winning streak, at eight games.

27. Liberty Bowl, East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6):
Kentucky comes in having lost three in a row, four of five and six of eight. Yep, that sounds like a bowl team to us.

While Chris Low (ESPN) doesn’t delve into all 34 games, he ranks the SEC games in that same order. From a neutral standpoint, that’s probably how I’d have to rank them as well. On a national scale, I think the Outback should be higher than the 22nd most interesting bowl, but I agree with its pecking order in the rank of SEC games.

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My Heisman Ballot

2008-12-10T18:28:00.001-08:00

Shotgun Spratling at The Blue Workhorse has put together the "2008 Sports Blog Heisman Trophy Winner" to be revealed on Thursday. Here's my ballot:

1) Tim Tebow - I tried to not make this pick so I wouldn't come off like an SEC Homer, but after watching Tebow put the Gators on his shoulders in the 4th quarter of the SEC Championship Game, I don't know how you don't vote him #1. He doesn't have the gaudy TD numbers that Bradford and McCoy (and Harrel and Daniel and Reesing) have, but he actually faced a real defense occasionally. The way the Gators have performed since their week 5 loss to Ole Miss has been nothing short of remarkable, and Tebow is the engine that makes them go.

2) Colt McCoy - The trophy was his to lose for the majority of the early season. He completed less than 60% of his passes just once this season - the 'Horns lone loss this season to Texas Tech. For the season he completed 77.6% of his passes for 32 TDs and 7 INTs. He tailed off a bit towards the end of the season, but he beat Bradford head to head, so he gets the 2nd place vote.

3) Sam Bradford - The offensive numbers speak for themselves. He's got a 48/6 TD/INT ratio and the Sooners have scored 60+ points in 5 straight games. He's got two things working against him as far as I can tell. First, OU lost straight up to Texas on a neutral field. Secondly, the whole Sooner team is unbelievable. You could plug another QB under center at OU a lot easier than you could at Texas or Florida. Tebow especially is irreplaceable.

Mullen in at Mississippi State

2008-12-10T12:32:00.001-08:00

It's being reported nearly everywhere, but apparently Florida OC Dan Mullen will be the new head guy in Starkville. This is about as good a hire as the Bulldogs could expect to make.

After being woeful on offense under Croom for 4 years, MSU AD Greg Byrne made it clear he wanted to bring a little pop to the offense. Looking at the numbers the Gators have put up with Mullen behind the wheel, it's easy to see why he was their choice. He's been with Urban Meyer for several years now and knows the conference well. His experience with recruiting top athletes to come to Utah will most likely serve him well as he now works to convince them to come to Starkville.

That leaves only Auburn resting squarely on the clock. It's embarrassing enough to fire a guy with Tuberville's track record at Auburn after one bad season and then boldface lie about like Auburn AD Jay Jacobs is doing, but it's even more damaging to the program to not have a replacement in yet. Tick Tock Mr. Jacobs.

2008 ESPN College Bowl Mania

2008-12-08T19:05:00.001-08:00

Bowl season is officially here. This year there are 34 bowls, meaning 68/120 D1A (56.67%) qualify for bowl games, which, quite frankly is absurd. But I digress.

ESPN has launched its annual College Bowl Mania game. For those who haven't played before, basically you choose the winners of all 34 games and assign a unique "confidence value" to each game, 1-34. Your 34 pointer is the game you're most sure of, your 1 pointer the game you have no clue on.

Like last year, I've created a Dead Guy SEC Group. It's free to play and I'll send a $10 Amazon credit to the winner of the group.

Some links and thoughts on Championship Saturday

2008-12-06T09:29:00.000-08:00

* Most of you have probably seen this, but if you haven't, the Orlando Sentinel has a look at how college football would be different if Tebow had chosen Alabama over Florida. The effects would have been far reaching, sure, but it's really just a fluff piece about Tebow.

* There's a good read in the Wall Street Journal about Southern football and its rise to prominence.

* Army's camo uniforms are awesome.

* It's hard not to root for Buffalo head coach Turner Gill. His post-game interview and subsequent man-hug with his AD after last night's shellacking of Testicle Tech Ball State are what the passion of college football is all about.

I can't imagine he's going to be at Buffalo much longer. The Bulls joined D1A in 1999 and were an underdog in every game for 7 years. They'd won 17 games in their first 9 seasons and are now MAC Champions. It's a remarkable feat what Gill accomplished in 3 seasons.

* I still don't agree with the Tuberville firing. I disagree more with how Auburn AD Jay Jacobs is handling it, claiming it was Tubby's choice and that Auburn paid the $5M+ buyout because they "felt it was the right thing to do".

That said, his firing will also resonate in Starkville. First off - Bulldog fans - there is absolutely no chance that Tommy Tuberville is you head coach next year. It's not going to happen. Secondly, it knocks the MSU job down another notch as Auburn will certainly have first choice over MSU. While getting rid of Croom was the right thing to do, it's not going to be easy to convince someone to move to Starkville to compete with Saban and Miles and Nutt and Petrino for recruits.

* The line for today's SEC Championship game has held steady at 10 points all week, so the money's been split pretty evenly. I think it's a fair line and if each team plays their game, it's about what the margin would be.

It’s Hard Out There for a Blimp

2008-12-04T19:48:00.000-08:00

If you think the heavyweight division of boxing is struggling to find an identity and maintain relevance in the world of sports, stop and consider the plight of the heavyweight college football coach. Over the past couple of seasons, these jolly old souls endeared themselves to us with their facial contortions and jiggly belly gyrations. But now, sadly, many of these portly gentlemen have fallen on hard times.

2006 and 2007 will long be viewed as the pinnacle for the OBCs. No, not the Old Ball Coach Steve Spurrier, but a secret union of former Christmas Parade Santas known as the Overweight Ball Coaches. For two magical seasons, hypertension and blood sugar be damned, these hefty heroes captivated our minds the same way this morning’s Grand Slam Breakfast at Denny’s captivated theirs.

The collective accomplishments of the OBC over those two glorious seasons are impressive. In 2006, Ralph “The Fridge” Friedgen led the Maryland Terrapins to a 9-4 record and a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl. That same season, Charlie “Decided Schematic Advantage” Weis led Notre Dame to 10-3 record and a Sugar Bowl bid.

Then, last season, in the legendary basketball town of Lawrence, KS, Mark “Mega Man” Mangino led the long-irrelevant Jayhawks to national prominence and a victory in the Orange Bowl. And, in our own SEC, two OBC members enjoyed their own shining moments. Phil “The Great Punkin” Fulmer led Tennessee to a 10-4 record, an SEC East Championship, and a victory in the Outback Bowl. Meanwhile, in the SEC West, Sylvester “The Walrus” Croom guided Mississippi State to an 8-5 record and a Liberty Bowl Victory. Goo goo g’joob indeed.

Unfortunately, in 2008, the OBC has fallen on its hardest times since the Twinkie shortage of 1985 (and I think we all remember how that turned out). Both Fulmer and Croom were unceremoniously shown the door after lackluster 2008 seasons. Kansas slipped back to mediocrity this year at 7-5. Maryland has yet to reach those heights again. And the struggles of poor, pitiful Charlie Weis have been well documented. Although it’s not his fault at all (Damn you Ty Willingham!), Weis was fortunate to maintain his job after consecutive mediocre seasons.

So please, this month, while you’re celebrating the religious holiday of your choice, pause for a minute to reflect on the ill fates of the fallen members of the OBC. Its members are people too, just bigger. And rounder. And they probably breathe through their mouth. But they are people and they need your thoughts and positive energy in these trying times.

SEC Championship Game Preview

2008-12-04T12:59:00.001-08:00

Saturday
(#1, #1)Alabama (12-0, 8-0) vs. (#2, #3)Florida (11-1, 7-1)
SEC Championship Game
3:00 PM CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 21-13
Thursday’s Line: Florida -10

While there’s no doubt the SEC is not as strong as a whole this year as in 2007, it’s hard not appreciate the significance of this weekend’s SEC Championship game. Florida was expected by most to make it. Alabama was expected by most to be a year or two away. And now the two clash in Atlanta for the right to call themselves SEC Champions.

These two schools are no strangers to each other in this environment. This is the 6th time in the 17 years of the SEC Championship game that these programs have faced off. Alabama won the inaugural SEC title game in 1992, followed by the Gators winning the next two in 1993 and 1994. The Gators also beat Alabama in 1996 before the Tide rolled in 1999. Alabama has never played another opponent besides the Gators in the title game. Meanwhile, the Gators are back in Atlanta for the 9th time and sport a 6-2 record there.

While statistics certainly don’t always tell the whole story, you can get a feel for how a team operates. When you run down the numbers on both sides of the ball for these two schools, it’s easy to see why they’re here. See the chart below. (conference ranks in parentheses)
We all knew the Gators would be close to unstoppable offensively. Tebow has played himself back into Heisman contention and even with a (perpetually) gimpy Percy Harvin, there are few offense in the country that put up yards and points like the Gators. And while the general consensus was that the Gators would be better on D, I don’t know that many saw this sort of a turnaround. Sure they’ve inflated some numbers playing in a weakened SEC, but the turnaround is remarkable.

The same could be said for Alabama’s offense. Last year, the Tide struggled to put points up consistently. This year, the Tide generated as many points per game as a Georgia offense led by future NFLers at QB and RB. Saban is known for his defensive scheming, so it’s not surprise to see gaudy numbers there, but the importance of a consistent offense cannot be understated.

As for the game itself, Alabama actually matches up as well as a team can with the Gator offense. In the lone Florida loss this year, the Gators struggled against an aggressive and dominant Ole Miss front four. The Rebels held the Gators to 124 rushing yards. Only Miami(FL) did better against the UF ground game, but offensive inconsistencies took the ‘Canes out of that game early. The Tide will stack the box with 8-9 guys and force Tebow to beat them with his arm.

Offensively, the Tide will pound the ball on the ground with a slew of hard-hitting backs and take their shots downfield when the opportunities are there. Other than freshmen WR Julio Jones, no one really stands out on this offensive unit, and Jones hasn’t scored a TD since September. That said, as evidenced by the season-long production, while they may now “wow”, they’ll certainly rear back and knock you over if you’re not ready.

The Tide enters this game with a very solid +9 turnover margin. The Gators are at ridiculous +21. Only twice have they lost the turnover margin in a game – Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. If the Tide want to win this one, they’ll need to turn the Gators over and give themselves short fields to work with.

When it’s all said and done, the Gators will win this game. And they will cover the 10 points. What they won’t do is run Alabama out of the Georgia Dome like they’ve done their last 8 opponents. The Tide is too tough defensively, particularly up front to let that happen. Florida wins 38-24.

Final SEC Power Poll

2008-12-04T06:29:00.000-08:00

So Florida ends the season at the top of the pile in the SEC. While the overall strength of the conference is signifcantly down from last year, it's worth noting that the top 2 AP teams in the country are squaring off in ATL this weekend. That's the good news. The bad news is that Auburn and Tennessee slipped to 5-7 this year, and though Vandy and Kentucky are both bowl-bound, it's hard to imagine either being very competitive.

As usual, for the greatest insight ever typed into a text box and posted on a sports blog, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

Tuberville out at Auburn

2008-12-03T14:52:00.001-08:00

That's what The Birmingham News and the Auburn Beat are reporting.

Unless there's been another Petrino-gate type episode - maybe Leach-gate or Petersen-Gate this year - and they've got a big name guy lined up and ready to announce, I can't say I agree with the firing. Auburn's struggles this year were exacerbated by Alabama's success no doubt, but that hardly seems reason to abandon ship.

I said when Fulmer was fired (and I stole it from The Dark Knight): You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain.

My Week 14 SEC Power Poll Ballot

2008-12-02T18:38:00.000-08:00

1. Alabama
Saban's earned his $4M this year as the Tide finally put it all together for 4 quarters and obliterated a hapless Auburn team. They finished the regular season undefeated and #1 in the country, so they stay #1 here.

2. Florida
The fact that they're a double digit favorite over #1 and undefeated Alabama tells you what the Gators have done since their loss to Ole Miss.

3. Ole Miss
The Rebels have outscored their opponents 152-20 over the last 4 weeks and are playing the best football in the conference behind the Gators and Tide. Should (but won't) get the Capital One bid.

4. Georgia
Meanwhile, the 'Dawgs defense is reeling, having given up 187 points over their last 5 games. The defensive performance Saturday was nothing short of embarrassing.

5. LSU
Only here because every other team sucks worse than the Bayou Bengals do. With Saban's success at Alabama and the Tigers' 5 losses, Les Miles seat is getting warmer by the nanosecond.

6. South Carolina
Someone should have asked Chris Smelley to, I don't know, maybe stop throwing the ball to Clemson at some point. Who does he think he is? Jarret Lee?

7. Tennessee
7th is probably higher than most will pick the Vols, but after they smoked Vandy and Kentucky the last 2 weeks of the season, how can they rank below them? They're playing as well as they have all year.

8. Arkansas
Aside from Ole Miss, no team improved more offensively from the beginning of the season to the end. The defense is another story.

9. Vanderbilt
I'll use big words since it's for Vandy. The offensive ineptitude once masked by an opportunistic defense is now manifesting itself on weekly basis.

10. Kentucky
Bowl-eligible sure, but bowl-worthy? Limping to the finish line and will be without dynamic freshman Randall Cobb in their bowl game.

11. Auburn
Suffered an emphatic ending to the unprecedented win streak over the Tide. Tuberville better get a cohesive staff in place quickly or run the risk of being on the wrong end of a similar streak.

12. Mississippi State
Mercifully, the Bulldogs' season has ended. Made the right move firing the inept Croom, but it's going to be a tough sell to get someone to move to Starkville to compete against Saban, Miles, Nutt, et al.

Week 14 SEC Bowl Projections

2008-11-30T16:21:00.000-08:00

* Nothing too earth shattering this week. Biggest change is that Mark Schlabach sees Alabama pulling (what will be in Vegas' eyes) the upset this weekend in Atlanta.

* At this stage of the season, Ole Miss is more deserving of the Capital One Bowl bid than Georgia is.

* So it looks like most think that Kentucky is going to get a chance to win its 3rd straight Music City Bowl after all. For that to happen, it would seem that both the Music City and Liberty Bowl rank Vanderbilt first on their preference lists and the Commodores opt to play in Memphis. Maybe I'm just wrong, but I can't imagine that the Music City Bowl is thrilled with a mediocre Kentucky team attempting to three-peat.

Thoughts from an eventful weekend in the SEC

2008-11-30T12:56:00.000-08:00

* First things first: Love him or hate him, it was the end of an era as the final seconds ticked off the clock in Neyland Stadium Saturday night. While Fulmer was certainly an easy target, his record - particularly early in his tenure - speaks for itself.

That said, I'm not sold that Lane Kiffin is the right fit yet at a BCS school. He's assembling an impressive staff, but the SEC East is hardly the ideal scenario to learn the ropes.

* Though his 5-year performance certainly merited it, I'm surprised Mississippi State pulled the plug on the Croominator. While his hiring was certainly an intriguing story for a week or two, it was hard not to tire of the media adoration even as his teams failed miserably on the field, mostly due to his poor recruiting and strategizing. In his 5 years in Starkville the Bulldogs never ranked in the top 100 in total offense.

In his swan song Saturday in Oxford, the Bulldogs had 14 drives: 12 punts and 2 interceptions. The never had a drive of more than 14 yds. I'm not sure who the Bulldogs are going to be able to afford, but aside from being probation-free, the program is in no better shape than when Croom was hired.

* The dominating performance Saturday capped a remarkable 4-game run to close the season for Ole Miss. They've given up just 20 points over the last 4 games and set a school record with 11 sacks Friday afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Capital One Bowl select the streaking Rebels over the porous Georgia Bulldogs.

* Speaking of UGA, that was just ugly yesterday. The Bulldog offense certainly got the preseason memo about the talent level of this team. It seems though it never reached the defensive coaches. The 2008 'Dawgs are more reminiscent of 2007's Florida team than either program would want to admit.

* Tommy Tuberville will be the first to admit that he's the primary reason for Auburn's disappointing 5-win season this year. While it's certainly not the season he or Auburn fans, I'm not sure it merits a pink slip. His recent track record is significantly better than Fulmer or Croom's is. But with the ridiculous pressure he's under - particularly with Saban's success at Alabama, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up somewhere next year. The Auburn fanbase isn't as fractured as Arkansas' was before Nutt left, but it's certainly within walking distance.

* I think LSU fans were a lot happier with "2-loss Les" than "5-Loss Les". It's ugly when you don't have a serviceable QB in this league.

* Spurrier can't be having any fun in Columbia. I gotta figure he's done after this season. The Gamecocks are 4 years into the Spurrier regime and there's been 4 5+ loss seasons. I can't imagine that's sitting well with the OBC's psyche.

* Going to be a helluvan SEC Championship Game Saturday afternoon. Mike Slive and his staff couldn't have asked for anything more.

An Open Letter to Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick

2008-11-30T05:34:00.000-08:00

Dear Mr. Swarbrick,

I do not envy you. You're going to be under an intense national spotlight over the next several days as you decide whether or not to continue the contract of offensive genius Charlie Weis. You're going to hear a lot of people imploring to cut your losses now, pay his ridiculous buyout, and move on to perhaps a "real" college coach.

But please, no matter many stats you look at or how many boosters threaten to pull funds - don't fire Charlie Weis.

This is the man that led Notre Dame back to glory. Remember? There's even a book about it. Think of all the good times that Coach Weis has brought. Remember when he almost beat USC in 2005? I know USC has outscored the Irish by 93 the last 3 years, but like I said, remember the good times. The Irish earned all 4 first downs they made last night.

And who can forget the happy faces of the cadets last year when Navy snapped its 43-game losing streak to the Irish last year? And while Coach Weis designed the 120th ranked offense in the country last year, this year, he used his decided schematic advantage to move the Irish all the way up to top 80 this year. Forget his dismal record against teams with winning records. With the joke of a schedule the Irish play every year, that's hardly an obstacle to bowl eligibility.

The simple fact of the matter is that Notre Dame deserves a coach like Charlie Weis. He's brash, arrogant, and hasn't accomplished much of anything lately, just like the Irish. I know he's failed to endear himself to several key university figures and alumni. I know he has yet to accomplish anything with his own players. I know the Irish lost to a 9-loss team this year for the first time in school history. Simply put Charlie Weis is the man to lead Notre Dame back to glory again. He's done it once, and now the program is worse off than it was before he was hired. He'll do it again.

And even if he doesn't, the rest of the country - including myself - will enjoy watching the failure every week on NBC. So please, when you're considering the overwhelming mountain of evidence that suggests Charlie Weis has no clue what he's doing, ignore it all. In uncertain economic times such as these, this country needs all the sources of joy it can get. Watching the Irish embarrass themselves on national television week after week is certainly a good place to start.

Thanks for your time today and I look forward to watching more terrible Notre Dame teams in the future.

- TDG

Shameless Pandering (but a good deal)

2008-11-29T15:19:00.000-08:00

For those looking to avoid the long lines inherent to this time of year, online shopping is the way to go. I've got a cool site (BigFlySports) that has agreed to offer free shipping to anyone who uses promotional code DEADGUY8 when you're checking out. They specialize in NCAA Merchandise so you won't find a better selection of stuff out there. You'll find some real nice stocking stuffers and if you decide to make a purchase, be sure to use the code DEADGUY8 for your free shipping!

See below links to directly access merchandise from all 12 SEC teams:

Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Week 13 SEC Power Poll (and Happy Thanksgiving)

2008-11-27T05:27:00.001-08:00

Fewer voters this week as everyone was getting ready for Thanksgiving, but the song remains (basically) the same. Ole Miss was the big winner this week (jumped to 4th) while the Hogs were the big losers, falling back into last after their loss in Starkville.

For all the insight you just can't get anywhere else, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

Week 14 Picks

2008-11-26T09:35:00.001-08:00

As Mrs. Dead Guy has decreed that the overly large family celebration of Turkey Day be held here in our humble abode, picks are brief this week as my time not cleaning, cooking, and raking is limited.

Friday
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -16

After a win like last week's in Baton Rouge, common thought would be the Rebels are due for a let down. Even with an improved offense behind QB Tyson Lee, they just don't have enough firepower to play 60 minutes with the Rebs. The "Golden Egg" goes back to Oxford.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

LSU @ Arkansas
Wednesday's Line: LSU -4.5

LSU was manhandled by the Rebels' defensive line last week and RB Charles Scott was held to just 10 yds. They won't have those same problems against the Hogs' porous D, which surrenders 4.5 ypc and 170+ ypg. Regardless of who starts at QB, LSU wins this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Saturday
Georgia Tech @ Georgia
Wednesday's Line: Georgia -8

Both teams feature strong rushing attacks and strong rush defenses. But only one team features a real QB and a 7-game winning streak in this series. And they're playing Between the Hedges. Georgia all the way.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

South Carolina @ Clemson
Wednesday's Line: Pick 'Em

Unlike the UGA/GTU series, this series is swung much in the favor of the in-state rival from the ACC. Neither team has lived up to expectations this season, but Clemson seems to have rallied around interim HC Dabo Swinney. South Carolina meanwhile can't make up its mind on a QB and is coming off a 50-point throttling. While this one will be much closer, Clemson pulls it out.

Straight Up Winner: Clemson
Against the Spread: Clemson

Auburn @ Alabama
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -14

Obviously, the biggest storyline here is "Can Auburn lock up an Independence Bowl bid with a win?"... or not. Tide fans have had this date circled all season as the chance to end 6 years of frustration. The Tigers will - as always - fight valiantly to the end, but their offensive woes will do them in as running against Bama's front 7 will be next to impossible. The Tide rolls.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Florida @ Florida State
Wednesday's Line: Florida -16.5

The Criminoles have experienced something of a resurgence this year and enter the game ranked in the Top 20. While they're certainly improved, there's no real advantage they have in this game except for the fact it's in Tallahassee. The Gators are too focused and crisp right now to drop this one to their arch-rivals.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida State

Kentucky @ Tennessee
Wednesday's Line: Tennessee -4.5

A few weeks ago, I was convinced the Vols would suck it up and play like a decent team the last 3 games of the season and fall ass-backwards into a Liberty Bowl bid. In the first of those 2 games, they've played as bad or worse offensively as they have all season. Unfortunately for UK, it was 1984 the last time the 'Cats beat the Vols. Neither team is very good offensively, but I'll give the edge to UT at home in Fulmer's swan song as the Battle Captain.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest
Wednesday's Line: Wake Forest -4

The Deacons play too sound to play into VU's hands. They manage the clock well and don't turn it over, both things that have frustrated the 'Dores all season. While Vandy is a great story to become bowl eligible this year, WFU has been there/done that and that experience will show in this game.

Straight Up Winner: Wake Forest
Against the Spread: Wake Forest

My Week 13 SEC Power Poll Ballot

2008-11-25T10:32:00.000-08:00

1. Alabama
Until Florida beats them in Atlanta in a couple of weeks, the league’s only undefeated team and #1 team in the country stays atop my rankings.

2. Florida
Sure it was just the Citadel, but it’s impressive the Gators were that sharp against such a weak opponent. May have hands full in Tallahassee with a depleted DL.

3. Georgia
An eighth straight win over Georgia Tech Saturday would help assuage some of the disappointment from this season. Though it’s hard to be too disappointed in (what should be) a 10 win season and a top 10 ranking.

4. Ole Miss
That was no upset in Baton Rouge. The better team won. If the Rebels had been healthy and accustomed to winning all season, their record would be much better than 7-4. Wins in Gainesville and Baton Rouge prove that.

5. LSU
Replacing their stars from last year as well as inexperience at the QB position has dropped LSU from the elite SEC teams. They bowl-bound, but that’s about it.

6. South Carolina
One of many conference teams this year plagued by inconsistencies, particularly at the QB position. It’s forced Spurrier to juggle QBs, which we all know he hates to do. *wink*

7. Vanderbilt
So instead of playing loose because they’d picked up that elusive 6th win, the ‘Dores come out and lay their biggest egg of the season.

8. Kentucky
The ‘Cats will try to do what Vandy couldn’t – knock off the worst Tennessee team in school history. If they don’t, can you say “Music City Bowl Three-peat”?

9. Auburn
Nothing would make Tiger fans happier than to lock up an Independence Bowl bid this weekend.

10. Tennessee
21 yds passing? For an entire game? And you won? So the Volunteer Navy runs a Service Academy offense now?

11. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs emerge from the cellar with an offensive explosion against the defenseless Hogs.

12. Arkansas
You know how I know your defense sucks? You gave up 445 yards to Mississippi State.

Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

2008-11-23T17:25:00.000-08:00

* Nearly everyone is in agreement with their picks now. There's really not too much discussion left except for the 'Dores and 'Cats end up.

* That is, unless LSU lays another egg this weekend in Little Rock and winds up 7-5 and on a losing streak. If that happens and UK and Vanderbilt both win this weekend, the defending national champs could find themselves in the Liberty Bowl.

* Ole Miss' win over LSU all but punched their ticket to the Cotton Bowl. That's the good news. The bad news is that whichever Big12 team they draw - Mizzou, Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma - would be a prohibitive favorite over the Rebels.

* Florida and Alabama just have to survive upset attempts from their arch rivals to play in a de facto elimination game for the BCS Title game.

Week 13 Picks

2008-11-19T14:58:00.000-08:00

Saturday
Tennessee (3-7, 1-5) @ Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-3)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Tennessee 69-28-5
Wednesday’s Line: Vanderbilt -3

This is a game the Vols have almost always penciled in as a win before the season. Fulmer is 14-1 against Vanderbilt in his career at UT and has never lost in Nashville. Overall, UT is 24-1 against the ‘Dores over the last quarter century, but did lose in 2005, the last time UT missed a bowl game.

It’s a different season though. Vanderbilt is actually favored over Tennessee. It’s the Vols who will be home for the holidays watching the ‘Dores play in a bowl game. The fans watching this game won’t see much offense. Neither team can move the ball - UT is 11th (267.1 ypg) and VU is 12th (266.9 ypg) in the SEC in total offense and neither score much either – Vandy is 8th (21.3) and UT is 11th (16.0).

My gut is – for some reason – telling me that UT pulls this one out somehow. I have determined – much like John Cusack in High Fidelity – that my gut has $#*+ for brains. The Vols looked horrible against an awful Wyoming team. While this Vanderbilt team is certainly not a world-beater, now that the pressure of picking up that elusive 6th win is gone, football will be fun again. And what could be more fun for the Commodores than to knock off Tennessee?

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: Vanderbilt

The Citadel (4-7) @ (#3, #3)Florida (9-1, 7-1)
12: 30 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Florida 13-0
Wednesday’s Line: N/A

Bleh. With the rhythm that the Gator offense is in, this game is not a good time for UF. It won’t be competitive at all, obviously, but with the starters getting so much rest, it may be a closer score than the 56-6 last week.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: N/A

Arkansas (4-6, 1-5) @ Mississippi State (3-7, 1-5)
1:30 CDT
All-Time Series: Arkansas 12-5-1
Wednesday’s Line: Pick’ Em

Who wants to be last in the SEC West? Please take a giant step backwards. Both of these teams have fallen off since last season, but only the Hogs seem to have a hope for the future. This has never been an easy matchup for the Bulldogs and Arkansas is 12-1 the last 13 seasons, including a current 9-game win streak with 4 straight wins in Starkville.

This will probably come down to turnovers. MSU committed 5 last year and lost 45-31 despite dominating the Hogs offensively. This year, even against the Hogs’ porous D (12th in the SEC), the Bulldogs will have trouble moving the ball. On the flip side, the Hogs offense has steadily improved this season, while MSU’s D has been inconsistent against conference opponents.

The Hogs had the weekend off last week to rest up and get healthy. They’re still clinging to an outside shot at a bowl game and can carry that hope one step further with another conference road win. Look for the Hogs to control the game on both sides of the ball and get a much needed win.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Ole Miss (6-4, 3-3) @ (#18, #18)LSU (7-3, 3-3)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: LSU 55-37-4
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -4.5

The Inaugural “Magnolia Bowl” takes place this weekend, as the two schools’ student governments have named this rivalry. Not sure what Magnolias have to do with LSU, but I digress. While these games are (typically) competitive, LSU has won 6 in a row in Baton Rouge and hold a 36-24-1 record there all-time against Ole Miss.

It will be strength on strength when LSU lines up on offense. LSU’s Charles Scott is one of the best RBs in the country, but the Rebels’ D-line has been great against the run all season, particularly of late. The Rebels’ secondary is there for the taking (225.2 ypg, 12th in conference), but can LSU count on Lee to make the right throws, or even to not throw a touchdown to an OM DB?

Last week, LSU fell asleep for 2.5 quarters before launching an unbelievable comeback. Ole Miss dominated hapless UL-Monroe from the opening kickoff. The winner of this game has the inside track to a 2nd place finish in the SEC West and possibly the Cotton Bowl, unless swirling rumors about Notre Dame come to fruition, in which the case the SEC should pull out of the Cotton Bowl and find another place to send their fans besides that dump… again I digress.

I’ve gotta go with the hot hand right now. LSU is deservedly a small favorite in this game, but Ole Miss is playing better football. Houston Nutt won in Baton Rouge last year when LSU won the BCS Championship game. This LSU team has been blown out by teams with explosive offenses this season – UF and UGA – and lost a heartbreaker to Alabama. Look for the Rebels to stack up the middle and focus on Charles Scott, all but daring Lee to make a throw down the field. In the end, too many TOs from LSU and the Rebels win the first Magnolia Bowl.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Week 12 SEC Power Poll

2008-11-19T07:04:00.001-08:00

Florida strengthened its lead for best in the SEC. Count me as one of the four still voting Alabama, though the Gators will be my pick in the SEC Championship game barring Tebow and Harvin being abducted by aliens or lunatic Tide fans.

For the most incredible insight into the SEC available anywhere on the web, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

And seriously, somebody tell me why Sylvester Croom dressed up as Emperor Palpatine for the game last Saturday...

My SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 12

2008-11-17T14:53:00.000-08:00

1. Alabama
Got the Mississippi State Monkey off their backs. Now have a couple of weeks to prepare for the Auburn Gorilla.

2. Florida
Another SEC opponent, another ridiculous blowout. No, this is not a repeat from last week. Or the week before. Or the week before.

3. Georgia
This is one of the most frustrating teams in conference to watch. For everything they do well, they undo with mind-boggling inconsistency or careless penalties. Stafford is becoming Mr. Clutch.

4. LSU
So THAT’s why the Tigers originally scheduled an open date after the Alabama game. Great comeback win for the Tigers, but never should’ve been in that situation.

5. Ole Miss
Bowl-bound in Nutt’s first year with impressive 59-0 win over UL-Monroe. Should be a very entertaining game in Baton Rouge this weekend.

6. South Carolina
I was ready to move the Gamecocks up to #4 had they been competitive in Gainesville. I certainly would’ve kept them at #5 had they at least shown up. But that was ugly.

7. Vanderbilt
Again, congratulations to the ‘Dores for locking up a bowl bid. Here’s hoping you get to travel outside of Nashville for the full experience.

8. Kentucky
Could’ve taken a big step towards locking up the Chick-Fil-A Bowl bid with home victory over floundering Vanderbilt. Instead, may end up falling bass-ackwards into a 3rd straight Music City Bowl.

9. Arkansas
The Hogs are clinging to waning bowl hopes entering this weekend’s showdown in Starkville.

10. Auburn
The play-calling of the Tigers this year has been questionable at best. Couple that with special teams breakdowns and it’s safe to say the Tigers let the Georgia game get away from them.

11. Tennessee
Close the season with two teams they’ve perennially dominated, but this Volunteer team doesn't dominate much of anything. Except Mississippi State.

12. Mississippi State
Why was Sylvester Croom dressed like Emperor Palpatine Saturday night?

Week 13 SEC Bowl Projections

2008-11-17T10:28:00.000-08:00

Here's a look at this week's SEC Bowl projections from a panel of "experts".

* Apparently NBC's Cary Estes was projecting Auburn to knock off Georgia as the Tigers have disappeared off this list completely.

* Tennessee and Mississippi State are already guaranteed losing seasons. Arkansas and Auburn are both mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, but both teams would need major upsets to go their way.

* I know Alabama fans are upset that they're being slighted - #1 in the country and not predicted to reach the title game - but the simple fact of the matter is that the Gators are the best team in the country right now. Both teams just need to stay focus and avoid pitfalls between now and December 6th.

* Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt are all about equal in the eyes of the 5 pundits listed. I've talked about this before in previous threads, but I don't think the Music City Bowl would take Kentucky for a third straight year unless their hand is forced by circumstance. And I doubt the Wildcats players or fans would be too excited either.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (which chooses teams before the Music City Bowl) has the choice between a 7-5 Ole Miss team and a 7-5 Kentucky team, my guess is that they'd take UK to revitalize the CATlanta atmosphere so prevalent at the SEC Basketball tournament of years past. If Ole Miss knocks of LSU this weekend and finishes 8-4 and 2nd in the West though, the 'Cats may end up back in Nashville.

* Vanderbilt is in an interesting situation as the Music City Bowl is hosted (basically) just across the river from their campus. While the 'Dores certainly won't be picky about a bowl game after a 25 year drought, the coaching staff may prefer to travel to another city to be sure the players get the full bowl experience.

They could theoretically end up in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a win over UT this weekend and knocking off Wake Forest on the road next weekend. That would then send UK to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl and Ole Miss to Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

* UPDATED 11/18/08Mandel's picks are in from CNN/SI. Apparently, he thinks the Gamecocks are going to lose next weekend in Clemson, as he projects Ole Miss to take the Outback Bowl bid. While a Gamecock loss is certainly not out of the question, I'm not sure that would land Ole Miss in Tampa.

From the Bowl Tie-In Page on SECSports.com:

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.

In his scenario, the Cotton Bowl selects LSU, which would seem to imply the Tigers beat the Rebels this weekend. The Outback Bowl takes Ole Miss, which they'd be allowed to do since the Cotton Bowl had already taken an SEC West team. To me, it seems that if the Rebels beat LSU and MSU, they'd be more attractive to the Cotton Bowl than LSU would be. If they don't beat LSU, it seems the Gamecocks would be more attractive to the Outback Bowl than the Rebels unless they get blown out at Clemson next week. Neither scenario has the Rebels landing in the Outback Bowl.

'Dores, Rebs Going Bowling

2008-11-16T09:55:00.001-08:00

Doormats no more.

Congratulations to Vandy and Ole Miss for locking up bowl bids yesterday. It's been a while for both schools, well a LONG while for VU. The 'Dores knocked off a tough UK team in Lexington last night while the Rebs throttled a hapless UL-Monroe team. I doubted whether or not Bobby Johnson could get VU over the hump after their recent skid, but they had a great gameplan last night and ran it well.

Just a bad all around weekend for UK fans as the feeling of deja vu in Rupp must have been rampant as the 'Cats fell to VMI to open the season.

No congratulations will be offered though to Fat Charlie and his pathetic Irish for wrapping up bowl eligibility. With the soft schedule the Irish play nearly every year, they should be bowl eligible. Here's to knocking back a few cold ones while Florida State beats the Irish by 4 TDs in the Gator Bowl.

Random Bits

2008-11-13T09:23:00.000-08:00

* There were 4 SEC baseball stadiums named to Rivals Top 10 list, though it may not be the ones you thought it would be. The site offers this disclaimer:

LSU and South Carolina were omitted from our list because both schools have ballparks that still are under construction.

As for the ones that did make the list:

Baum Stadium – Arkansas
Baum Stadium is the palace of college baseball stadiums. Though many schools now are building new stadiums, they still are playing catch up with the Razorbacks. When Baum Stadium was erected in 1996, it was the class of college baseball. Not much has changed, as the capacity currently is 10,500 and luxury suites extend from the left-field foul pole to the right-field foul pole. Arkansas fans also pack the house rain or shine and provide a premier home-field advantage for their baseball program. Everyone aspires to have a facility like the University of Arkansas.

Polk-Dement Stadium -- Mississippi State
No school blows out a postseason party in a regional or super regional quite like Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs struggle to fill the stands until the weather warms up, Polk-Dement Stadium is an excellent venue to watch a game. In addition to a roomy grandstand, the Bulldogs also have what is called the "Left-Field Lounge", where patrons line the outfield wall with barbeque pits, coolers and whatever else they can get in their possession. The official capacity for the stadium, including outfield seating, is 15,000. Those that watched the Starkville super regional two seasons ago know exactly what the Bulldogs are about at Polk-Dement Stadium.

Oxford-University Stadium -- Ole Miss
Ole Miss has one of the hidden gems in college baseball. Though observers in the Southeastern part of the country know about the great atmosphere at Oxford-University Stadium, people nationally just now are getting a taste of what the Rebels are about. O-U Stadium holds about 3,500 spectators in the main grandstand, but thousands of fans often line the grassy areas down the left and right field lines and the outfield. In 2005, a record 10,119 fans were in attendance as the Rebels played Alabama. Ole Miss currently is in the midst of a renovation campaign that will increase grandstand seating.

Plainsman Park – Auburn
When the Tigers decided to renovate their facility in 1996, many schools, including Baylor, took notice of the project. Plainsman Park is one of the nation's best stadiums and has a wonderful façade to go with a cozy atmosphere. Plainsman Park has a capacity of 4,096 fans. However, the record attendance for a single-game was set in 2002, as 4,715 fans packed the stadium to watch Auburn play LSU. Recently, the Tigers have installed a new drainage system for the playing surface and a state-of-the-art strength and rehabilitation center. Auburn certainly is a trendsetter.

* ESPN has their first Bracketology up for the 2008-09 season and Lunardi projects just 5 SEC teams to dance this year:

Florida (2-seed)
Tennessee (4-seed)
Kentucky (8-seed)
Alabama (11-seed)
LSU (13-seed)

I’ll throw out that Ole Miss will make the tournament in the form of an 8-10 seed as well. They’ve been on the bubble the last two seasons and will pull it through this year. Lunardi projected them back in April in his first post-tourney Bracketology listing, so I’m not sure why they dropped.

Hard to believe the season kicks off in earnest this weekend. I’ll get a preview up sometime next week.

Week 12 Picks

2008-11-12T18:56:00.000-08:00

Saturday
(#13,#12)Georgia (8-2, 5-2) @ Auburn (5-5, 2-4)
11: 30 CST, Raycom
All-Time Series: Auburn 53-50-8
Wednesday's Line: Georgia – 8.5

It's the South's oldest rivalry and one of the best. Through 111 games, Auburn has outscored Georgia by a mere 45 points. It's the 18th straight time that one or both schools have been ranked when the game was played and – surprisingly – the lower ranked or unranked squad has won 7 of the last 12 years. Georgia has won consecutive blowout games.

The Tigers paltry O struggled again last week against Tennessee-Martin until Kodi Burns realized he was faster than everyone else out there and ran wild. As bad as the 'Dawgs D has been the last 3 weeks, no way they lose containment on Burns as consistently as the Skyhawks did. In the SEC, only Arkansas has allowed more TDs than Georgia has this year. On the flip side of that, only MSU and UT have scored fewer TDs than Auburn.

Despite all of Auburn's troubles this year, this is not going to be an easy game for the 'Dawgs. Tuberville is at his best when his back is against the wall, though this year, the talent differential between the two schools is deep a chasm to void. If Georgia's big 3 show up to play, the Tigers just don't have the firepower to keep up. Look for an inspired effort by the Tigers early, but too much Stafford and Moreno in the second half. 'Dawgs by 10.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Louisiana-Monroe (3-7) @ Ole Miss (5-4, 3-3)
1:00 CST
All-Time Series: Ole Miss 2-0
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -21

Ole Miss looks to become bowl-eligible this weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. The rebels are the 3rd SEC West the ULM Warhawks will have played this year, having dropped a 34-0 game to Auburn in the season opener and basically choking away a 28-27 game the next week to Arkansas. Ole Miss has outscored ULM 80-17 in the 2 previous meetings.

Assuming the Rebels learned from Alabama's overlooking of ULM last year, this one won't be close. The Rebels have too much firepower on offense to stumble here. Even if the turnover bug comes back, they should have enough to get the win. The Grove will be rocking as the Rebels clinch a postseason berth for the first time since Archie's youngest graduated in 2003, but no way I'm giving up 3 TDs to a team as schitzo as Ole Miss.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Louisiana-Monroe

(#24,#23)South Carolina (7-3, 4-3) @ (#4,#3)Florida (8-1, 6-1)
2:30 CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 21-4-3
Wednesday's Line: Florida -21

The Ole Ball Coach heads back to his old stomping grounds Saturday as the red hot Gamecocks take on the even hotter Gators. The Gamecocks have bounced back from a rocky start to put themselves in a position for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Gators have bounced back from a loss at home to Ole Miss and are playing perhaps the nest football in the entire country.

This will be the sternest test the Gators will have faced since their loss to Ole Miss. While Georgia came out and laid an egg in Jacksonville, Spurrier will make sure that doesn't happen here. A win in the Swamp, and his Gamecocks would like take the Capital One Bowl bid away from Georgia. Unfortunately for him, that just won't happen this weekend. Tebows apology and proclamations were internet fodder for many a joke, but he and the Gators have backed them up with their recent stellar play. The Gators win this on, but 3 TDs is too much.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Mississippi State (3-6, 1-4) @ (#1, #1)Alabama (10-0, 6-0)
6:45 CST, ESPN
All-Time Series: Alabama 71-18-3
Wednesday's Line: Alabama –20.5

Though Alabama has owned this series through the years, they've dropped two in a row to the Bulldogs. Even more remarkable is the fact that it's been 3 seasons since Alabama scored an offensive TD against the Bulldogs. Over the last 3 years, the Tide has managed 8 FGs and 3 defensive TDs against MSU and are 1-2.

John Parker Wilson has single-handedly choked this game away the last two seasons. He's a combined 35/73 (48%) for just 308 yds with 0 TDs and 4 INTs. While you never know what you're going to get from JPW, this Tide team has been too steady and consistent all season long to drop a game like this to a team like Mississippi State. Sure it's a fun story that's been beaten into the ground that for 2 straight years, Croom has beaten his alma mater who wouldn't hire him, but that will long forgotten on Saturday.

Frankly, unless JPW throws the ball directly to Pegues or any other of MSU's defenders, I don't know how the Bulldogs are going to score in this game. Alabama will do what they do and MSU won't be able to stop them or to score on them. The only question will be if the Tide will stay focused long enough to cover 3 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

Troy (6-3) @ (#19, #20)LSU (6-3, 3-3)
7:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: LSU 1-0
Wednesday's Line: LSU – 18.5

This is the Hurricane Gustav make-up game from earlier in the season. It's just the 2nd meeting between these schools and LSU had to rally very late to eke by Troy 24-20 in 2004. The Tigers are 32-0 against Sun Belt teams.

This won't be close. It's a night game at Tiger Stadium and Troy is not one of the 3 best teams in the SEC, which are the only teams the Tigers have fallen to. There will be some emotional hangover from last week's disappointment, but it won't last long. Troy is a very good offensive team and – if taken lightly – will pose a real threat for an upset. With a big conference game next week against Ole Miss, this is a definite trap game situation, but no way the Tigers drop this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: Troy

Vanderbilt (5-4, 2-4) @ Kentucky (6-4, 2-4)
7:00 CST, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Kentucky 39-37-4
Wednesday's Line: Kentucky -4

While it doesn't have the marquee schools or the star power of the other games this weekend, this is the most important game of the weekend in terms of conference standings. It's been a close series throughout its history with 33 of the 80 games (41%) decided by a TD or less.

Kentucky has found new life on offense since inserting stud freshman Randall Cobb in as starting QB. They knocked off MSU on the road (which Vanderbilt failed to do) and went toe-to-toe with UGA for 58 minutes before falling on one of the plays of the year in college football. Meanwhile, Vandy is headed in the opposite direction, dropping 4 straight. The Commodores haven't scored more than 14 points in 5 straight games.

The 'Cats have been playing most superior opponents close, dropping close ones to UGA, South Carolina, and Alabama. They're also winning the games they're supposed to, and this game qualifies in that category. The 'Cats will continue to play smart on offense and the defense - though it's struggled a bit lately - will find that Vandy's anemic offense is just the cure for its ails.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Kentucky

Week 11 SEC Power Poll

2008-11-12T05:38:00.000-08:00

Changes at the top and bottom of the poll with the creamy filling in the middle staying basically the same. After yet another conference blowout, Florida has wrested the top spot away from the undefeated and #1 nationally Crimson Tide. And after another humiliating defeat, Tennessee fell behind MSU for worst of the SEC. For all the insight you just can't get anywhere else, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

A Decided Schematic Advantage

2008-11-11T13:39:00.000-08:00

It’s been a while since I ranted a bit about Fat Charlie and his Pathetic Irish, but after reading Senator Blutarsky's take on this, I figured it was time to pull one together. The one sentence that should incent any college football fan is this:

If Notre Dame beats Navy and Syracuse and loses, as expected, to USC on the road, the Irish will finish 7-5. That should be good enough for them to earn an invitation to the Cotton Bowl, Gator Bowl or Sun Bowl…

First of all, no way the Cotton Bowl selects a 7-5 Notre Dame team over LSU or Ole Miss or any other SEC team. The point is most likely moot as the Gator Bowl would surely jump at the chance to bring Fat Charlie to Jacksonville.

Secondly, I just don't get why people are still obsessed with Notre Dame. They haven’t won a bowl game since 1993. They haven’t been competitive in a bowl game since 1998. They're a whopping 5-4 this season playing almost exclusively with the players Weis has brought in, though I'm sure it's somehow still Tyrone Willingham's fault the Irish suck again this season. Despite all that, the Irish are on TV every weekend, and actually have special exceptions written into some bowl contracts, including the BCS games.

In his tenure at Notre Dame, he has exactly one win that you can look back and point at and say, “Nice win there coach” and that’s the 41-17 beatdown of Penn State in 2006 when the Nittany Lions finished 9-4. Other than a win over a 7-5 Michigan in 2005, there’s hardly a win worth mentioning. To put a little more perspective on it, Pat Forde has this to say in his latest Forde Yard Dash:

After once again playing piñata for mighty Boston College, Weis is now 1-16 in his past 17 games against teams that finished the season .500 or better -- or, in the case of 2008 opponents, currently are .500 or better. That lone point of pride in those 17 games: a seven-point win last month over Stanford, which presently is 5-5 but easily could end up 5-7 and wipe that victory off the books.

Greg Couch of the Chicago Sun-Times references that same PSU victory in 2006 as Weis' only accomplishment at Notre Dame and also offers these gems:

...the most-hyped coach in college football history has been one big failure. Never has so much hope and hype been built from hot air. But when you sell yourself on spec, as Weis did, sooner or later, the finished product comes in.

Under Weis, Notre Dame has never beaten a good team.

In the Sagarin computer national rankings, Notre Dame is ranked behind James Madison.

Let’s take a closer look at Notre Dame’s offensive numbers from last year, the 3rd year that the Fighting Irish had their Decided Schematic Advantage over everyone they played:

2007 Notre Dame:
Scoring Offense: 16.4 ppg
Total Offense: 242.3 ypg
Passing Offense: 167.0 ypg
Rushing Yards: 75.25 ypg

For those of you struggling to grasp how pathetic those numbers, here’s how they compare to the 2008 Tennessee team:

2008 Tennessee:
Scoring Offense: 16.0 ppg
Total Offense: 267.1 ypg
Passing Offense: 162.8 ypg
Rushing Yards: 104.3 ypg

So, the offensive genius designed an offense that managed 25 less yards per game than the Vols are averaging this year. The Irish aerial attack last year did manage to put up nearly 5 more passing yards per game than the current Jonathan Crompton/Nick Stephens debacle in Knoxville this season. And the Vols are doing this against (mostly) SEC defenses, while the Irish played the Service Academies and mid-tier Big 10 teams.

***Update: Another stellar column from Jason Whitlock***

For those of you who are interested in joining the millions of "Huge Notre Dame Fans" out there, please refer to the following flow chart:

My Week 11 SEC Power Poll Ballot

2008-11-11T04:41:00.000-08:00

1. Alabama
The Tide was finally forced to prove they could play from behind. But if they must make a late FG in a crucial situation, is Leigh Tiffin really the guy for the job?

2. Florida
I know it was Vandy, but the Gators are rolling right now. Will face a stern test in Columbia this weekend.

3. Georgia
38-49-38. No, not Sir Mix-A-Lot's dream girl. They’re the point totals the once vaunted UGA defense has been given up over the last 3 weeks. They should get back on track against hapless Auburn this weekend.

4. South Carolina
Despite a heads up loss to LSU, the Gamecocks are a better team right now. Have a shot to knock off the Gators this weekend in The Swamp.

5. LSU
Perhaps Jarrett Lee's receivers should wear the other teams' uniforms. The opposing DBs seem to be his favorite targets for TDs.

6. Ole Miss
Can lock up a bowl bid with a win over Louisiana-Monroe this weekend. And no way an SEC team would ever lose to UL-Monore this late in the sea… Wait, what? Alabama? Oh, never mind.

7. Kentucky
Matched UGA point for point for 58 minutes. It took an unbelievable play for the ‘Dawgs to eke it out in Lexington. The ‘Cats may finish with 8 wins.

8. Vanderbilt
I can only imagine how fragile the psyche of this Commodore team is right now. They've gone from college football's best story to potentially orchestrating a choke job worthy of last year's South Carolina team.

9. Arkansas
Another nice effort Saturday despite the loss. Will need to use the off weekend to get Michael Smith’s dinged up shoulder healthy.

10. Auburn
Hey, a win is a win right? The Tigers snapped a 5-game skid. Now their bowl eligibility rests on knocking off either Georgia or Alabama. Good luck with that.

11. Tennessee
Vols’ fans could be looking at the worst team in the storied history of Tennessee football, statistically speaking. Became first SEC team to lock up a losing record this year.

12. Mississippi State
After squealing like pigs all weekend in Tuscaloosa, the Bulldogs will join Tennessee and Auburn as the only SEC teams to have losing seasons wrapped up.

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

2008-11-10T13:19:00.000-08:00

My Thoughts:
* I added in Stewart Mandel's picks from CNN/SI, though his fall in line with majority consensus on every game.

* With Penn State's loss to Iowa, both Alabama and Florida control their own destiny to play in the BCS Title game. As long as neither slips up against their final 2 regular season opponents, the loser of the clash in Atlanta will receive a Sugar Bowl Bid as a consolation prize.

* Please disregard any posts I may have made in the past weeks stating that Tennessee would rally around Fulmer's departure and win out. What a horrid performance they put on Saturday.

* And if anyone knows how to reach Cary Estes, the contributing writer for NBC.com, I'd love to hear if he thinks Auburn is going to knock off Georgia or Alabama to get their 6th win and wrap up an Independence Bowl bid.

* At least to me, it doesn't make sense for Kentucky to end up in Nashville for a 3rd straight season. The Bowl-Tie-In page on the SEC's site says:

In selections 6-7, the AutoZone Liberty and Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowls will make their selections, not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office. The Bowls will rank available qualified teams in order of preference. If there are no similarities in the order of selection, the bowls will be granted its selection. If the bowls rank the same teams in preference, the team involved in the process would get its preference of which bowl to participate.

If the Chick-Fil-A Bowl selects Ole Miss over UK, that's going to leave the 'Cats and (supposedly) Vanderbilt left as the 6th and 7th bowl-eligible teams. Obviously the Liberty Bowl would rank Vanderbilt ahead of Kentucky, but would the Music City Bowl rank Kentucky ahead of Vanderbilt on its list of preferences? And even if they did, would Kentucky really opt to head to Nashville again?

* I'm still not convinced that Vanderbilt wins another game this season to wrap up that Liberty Bowl bid. They're stuck in a pressure cooker at this point and with a shaky defense and shakier offense, win #6 is looking tougher.

* I like Bruce Feldman. I really do. He and Chris Low are the best two college football writers espn.com has. But there's no way that the Capital One Bowl deems LSU the most attractive non-BCS-Bowl-bound SEC team. Sitting at 3-3, they're going to have to work just to finish with a winning conference record. Ole Miss and Arkansas are certainly capable of knocking them off. Georgia is far and away the more attractive option there, especially considering the woodshed beating laid on the Tigers in Tiger Stadium.

I Can't Say I'm Surprised...

2008-11-10T08:35:00.000-08:00

but it doesn't make this news any less mind-boggling.

EVERGREEN, Ala. — Authorities say an argument over Saturday's Alabama-LSU football game led to the shooting deaths of a couple at a home in southern Alabama.

Prosecutors identified the victims as Dennis and Donna Smith of Brewton. The shooting happened about 7 p.m. Saturday at the home of Michael Williams in the rural community of Owassa.

Williams was arrested and charged with two counts of murder.

Investigators told the Press-Register newspaper in Mobile that Dennis Smith, an LSU fan, called Williams, an Alabama fan, after Alabama's 27-21 overtime win and an argument ensued.

The Smiths went to Williams' home. Investigators said Smith had a pistol and Williams had a shotgun and fired. Donna Smith was a relative of Williams' girlfriend.

I can't even begin to wrap my mind around the idiocy of this. My guess is that neither the Smiths or Williams have ever stepped foot on the campus of Alabama or LSU (or any institute of higher learning for that matter). In my mind, in Williams' mugshot, I'm picturing unkempt facial hair and a mullet and possibly an "I'm With Stupid -->" shirt.

I just hope the state doesn't implode following this year's Iron Bowl - whatever the result is.

Week 10 SEC Power Poll

2008-11-06T08:41:00.001-08:00

Florida or Alabama? Alabama or Florida? Even Florida and Alabama? That’s really the only argument left. Teams have really settled into their own little niches now as the spread between each place is becoming pretty pronounced. For all the insight you won’t find anywhere else, check out the full recap at Garnet and Black Attack.

Week 11 Picks

2008-11-05T18:27:00.000-08:00

(#14,#14)Georgia (7-2, 4-2) @ Kentucky (6-3, 2-3)
11:30 CST, Raycom
All-Time Series: Georgia 48-11-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -11

Georgia gets its chance to lick its wounds against a Kentucky team that earned bowl-eligibility last weekend in Starkville. While UGA has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two schools, UK prevailed in 2006, the last meeting in Lexington. The Bulldogs are 24-3 against Kentucky when ranked.

Polar opposite weekends for these two schools last week as Georgia was blitzed in Jacksonville while the ‘Cats wrapped up a bowl bid with an upset in Starkville. UK switched to something of a 2-QB look last week alternating sophomore Mike Hartline and freshman Randall Cobb. Their numbers weren’t overwhelming – 16/29 for 156 yds and 1/1 – but it (coupled with a blocked extra point) were enough for the win.

For the ‘Dawgs, things were bad at halftime. Down 14-3, things hadn’t gone UGA’s way. Then the third quarter happened, and all the national title dreams evaporated. That said, the defense should handle Kentucky well. The combination of Hartline and Cobb won’t be enough to exploit a UGA secondary that has given more passing yds than any conference team except Ole Miss. On the flip side, only Alabama has given up fewer rushing yds than UGA has.

This will be one of UGA’s best efforts of the season. Under Richt, unfocused games like last week have become commonplace, but rarely if ever on back to back weeks. Richt has been incredible on the road in conference and UGA is too talented and now too desperate for a win to let an injury-depleted ‘Cats team stand in their way of a win.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Arkansas (4-5, 1-4) @ South Carolina (6-3, 3-3)
12:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: Arkansas 10-6
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -11

Hard to believe it’s been 17 seasons since South Carolina and Arkansas joined the conference. Arkansas has won 2 in a row in this series and 3 of the last 4 have been decided by 6 points or less, the exception being the Hogs’ 48-36 victory last season.

Including last week’s win over UT, South Carolina is a meager 6-16 in November over the last 6 seasons, highlighted by last season’s epic collapse. This is seemingly a different Gamecocks team, as they’re playing fairly well heading into the latter part of the season. They’ll be facing an Arkansas team that has also matured and improved throughout the course of the season and one that is desperate for a win.

The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country in total D, giving up just 250.7 ypg. Where they have struggled at times is offensively, putting up just 330.4 ypg, good for 86th in the nation. They’ve had just 255 and 254 yds the last 2 games against LSU and Tennessee. The major problems have coming running the ball where South Carolina ranks 106th nationwide.

It’ll be a battle of weaknesses as the Hogs’ sport the conference’s worst run defense, allowing 170 ypg and a 5.6 ypc average. Though Arkansas forced enough turnovers to knock off Tulsa last week, the Golden Hurricane still ran up 528 yds against the Hogs. While South Carolina won’t approach those numbers, they will find some momentum in the running game and be able to run a much more balanced attack.

South Carolina can’t sleep on this one. Arkansas needs this for a real shot at bowl eligibility so they’ll be fired up. The Hogs torched the Cocks last year for 650 yds (540 rushing), but that was with McFadden and Jones. This year, the Gamecock defense will be too much for Casey Dick and Michael Smith to overcome. South Carolina wins by 2 TDs.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Wyoming (3-6) @ Tennessee (3-6, 1-5)
12:00 CST, PPV
All-Time Series: Tennessee 2-0
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -27

This is exactly the kind of game the Vols need right now. With all the excitement going on in Knoxville, hosting a team as anemic on offense they are is just what the doctor ordered for the Vols. Currently, the Vols rank 115th in the country on offense with 272.4 ypg. Wyoming sits at 112th with 284.4 ypg. Those numbers are remarkably skewed from their 544 yd outburst last week against San Diego State.

The Volunteer D should have a field day with the Cowboys who have scored a TD or less in 5 games this season. And the offense should finally actually resemble an offense against a lesser opponent. This one won’t be close, but 4 TDs is too much to give anyone against the Vols this year.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Wyoming

Tennessee-Martin (7-2) @ Auburn (4-5, 2-4)
1:30 CST
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: No Line

Not even worth the effort… Auburn rolls. Or at least they win by a couple of TDs. This offense never seems roll.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: N/A

(#1,#1)Alabama (9-0, 5-0) @ (#15,#15) LSU (6-2, 3-2)
2:30 CST, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 43-23-5
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -3

While the Tide has dominated this series all time, the Tigers have run off 5 straight victories and 7 of 8, including the thrilling 41-34 win last season that started Alabama’s season-ending 4-game losing streak. Alabama is 24-8-2 in Baton Rouge. But none of that matters this weekend in Baton Rouge, not for this game.

As hostile as Arkansas fans were towards Houston Nutt, expect that to pale in comparison to what the LSU fans have in store for Saban. He will not be welcomed back with open arms or remembered for the 48-16 record he posted as LSU’s HC. It will be ugly. My only question is why this game is not at night. No game in recent memory has screamed “NIGHT GAME IN BATON ROUGE” more than this one.

LSU’s offensive strength this season has been pounding the ball on the ground with Charles Scott. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that plays right into the teeth of the Alabama D, which will be welcoming Mt. Cody back in the middle. The Tide have given up just 590 rush yds this year (67 ypg), a 2.9 ypc average, and just 1 rushing touchdown.

The Tide has also controlled the line of scrimmage on offense all season, leading the SEC in rushing offense as well with 1848 yds (205 ypg). They lead the conference with a 5.04 ypc average and their 22 rush TDs are 2nd only to Florida’s 23. And while JPW is not an elite QB, he has been steady this season and, most importantly, taking care of the football.

The Tide can punch their ticket to Atlanta with a victory in Baton Rouge. They’ll have success running the ball against a suddenly porous LSU defense and the defense should be able to handle a mistake-prone LSU offense. Look for Alabama to continue to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and feed off the turnovers by a youthful LSU backfield. “2-Loss Les” becomes “3-Loss Les” Saturday afternoon.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

(#4,#5)Florida (7-1, 5-1) @ Vanderbilt (5-3, 3-2)
6:00 CST, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Florida 30-9-2
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -24

Florida has won 17 straight against Vanderbilt. Last year, UF BMF Percy Harvin paced the gators with 100+ yds receiving and 100+ yds rushing, the first Gator to ever pull that off. Let’s be brutally honest here, right now, Florida is playing as well or better than anyone in the country. Vanderbilt isn’t. The pressure to win one more game increases every week in Nashville and it’s not going to happen Saturday. Even an unfocused Gator team will make mincemeat out of this ‘Dores team. Florida rolls.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

My SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 10

2008-11-04T14:02:00.000-08:00

1. Alabama
Florida’s playing better right now, but the Tide are unblemished and sitting atop the national polls. That’s reason enough for me to keep them #1.

2. Florida
What they’ve done the last couple of weeks against 2 bowl-eligible teams has been nothing short of scary.

3. Georgia
Georgia appearing here (at #3) is, more than anything, a testament to the lack of quality depth the SEC typically has. The ‘Dawgs picked the wrong week to not show up.

4. LSU
Recent inconsistent play needs to be remedied before the Tide rolls into town this weekend.

5. South Carolina
Something tells me Spurrier took a special pleasure in putting the finishing touches on Fulmer’s career at UT.

6. Ole Miss
This year, the Rebels are 1 win away from being bowl eligible through 9 games. Last year, through 9 games, they were 1 win away from being 1 win away from being 1 win away from being 1 win away from bowl eligible.

7. Kentucky
The ‘Cats got back to the formula they used for their early season success: Play an opponent who sucks. Still, can’t argue with bowl eligibility.

8. Arkansas
The Hogs will look back at the ones that got away against Ole Miss and Kentucky when they’re at home for the holidays.

9.Vanderbilt
May be catching the Gators at the right time after the WLOCP blowout last week. If that’s the case, Florida may only win by 20.

10. Auburn
I know the Rebels’ secondary is weak, but I can’t imagine any successful gameplan that includes the phrase “43 pass attempts from Kodi Burns”.

11. Tennessee
Saturday’s lost was the final nail in Fulmer’s coffin, marking the end of an era in Knoxville. For all their problems, that was (in my opinion) the Vols’ last regular season loss of the season.

12. Mississippi State
Apparently just sucking on offense was enough for the Bulldogs. Now, they suck on special teams too.

Week 11 SEC Bowl Projections

2008-11-03T10:58:00.000-08:00

After a weekend of games that helped solidify the pecking order in the SEC, projections (for the most part) are starting to be a little more consistent.

My Thoughts:

* Despite being #1 in the country and the only undefeated team left in conference, no one's projecting Alabama to hang onto that spot and make it to the BCS Title Game. After Florida's performances the last 2 weeks, it's hard to blame them.

* Ole Miss is seemingly the hardest team for the pundits to get a read on. The 5 projections here have them going to 4 different bowls. No other team has more than 2.

* I tend to agree with CBS and Scout that Tennessee finds itself back in a bowl game to send Fulmer out. The remaining teams on Tennessee's schedule - Wyoming, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky - are certainly all winnable games.

* I also tend to agree with Scout that Vandy won't be bowling this year. Their 5-0 start was an aberration and a forgotten one at that. They've got 4 games left, but this weekend's beatdown by Florida may drain what little life the 'Dores have left.

* Give credit to Petrino and the Hogs for turning around what was certainly a disastrous start to the SEC season, but I don't see them beating LSU or South Carolina, one of which they'll have to do to play in a bowl.

* Would the Music City Bowl really want Kentucky again? They're already the 2-time defending Music City Bowl Champs? Isn't that enough?

* Apparently they feel that if the Independence Bowl can't have Alabama, they don't want any SEC team. Only 1 projection for the Indy Bowl, and it's for Arkansas, which I just don't see happening.

Fulmer to Step Down

2008-11-03T09:06:00.000-08:00

In a move that should surprise no one, UT and HC Phil Fulmer have reached an agreement and Fulmer will not be back next year.

Creativity Abounds in Oxford

2008-11-03T06:21:00.000-08:00

After a questionable ending to the Ole Miss/Alabama game last year in Oxford, a local band called the Lexington Brothers penned this little ditty called "It's Okay to Hate Doyle Jackson". Last week, before the Rebels took on Auburn and their former HC, they sang a song called "Wasting Away in Tommy Tuberville". Pretty funny stuff.

* H/T to the 2 Ole Miss fans who sent this my way

Sunday Morning Musings

2008-11-02T05:36:00.000-08:00

Here's what I came up with during the extra hour of sleep last night:

* 43 pass attempts with Kodi Burns? Really? I know Tuberville was trying to take advantage of Ole Miss' weak secondary, but that's more than double his previous career high in pass attempts.

* No one will argue that Houston Nutt is a great Xs and Os guy, but he's won as many SEC games in 3/4 season as Ed Orgeron did in 3 years in Oxford. You've got to give Nutt a lot of credit for changing the losing attitude there in Oxford.

* Not a good day for the SEC's Bulldogs yesterday. Special teams breakdowns and UK's stout running defense were too much for the offensively challenged Bullies from Starkville. And what to say about the WLOCP but a simple "Wow".

* I think the win over Tulsa is more of a signature win than the win over Auburn was. Even though Tulsa is from a non-BCS, the Hogs lost an emotional game last weekend to their former HC, yet came out focused in this one, jumping out to 17 first quarter points.

* I would not want to be Phil Fulmer about now. Or anyone on the offensive side of the ball for the Vols. They had 34 yds rushing last night with a long of 8 yds.

* As for the Gamecocks, I bet they wish they had a mulligan to use on that Vanderbilt game. Of course you could say the same for Ole Miss and Auburn as well.

* LSU and Alabama made quick work of Tulane and Arkansas State last night in advance of one of the most anticipated games of the year.

* The ending to the Texas/Texas Tech game last night was insane. It also opened the door a bit wider for Florida to make a run to the BCS title game.

Happy Halloween

2008-10-31T13:42:00.000-07:00

How Fulmer hopes to treat Spurrier tomorrow night
Happy Halloween. Enjoy your weekend. My advice, put down the candy and grab yourself a nice Punkin Ale tonight. It's tastier than you think it would be.

Week 10 Picks

2008-10-29T18:55:00.000-07:00

Saturday
Auburn (4-4, 2-3) @ Ole Miss (4-4, 2-3)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Auburn 24-8
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -6.5

This has been one of the most lopsided SEC West series over the last 15 years as Auburn is 13-2 since 1992. The Tigers are 8-1 in Oxford with their lone loss coming in 1992. But, if ever there was a year for Ole Miss to break the skid, this is it. At least for the time being, these are two programs heading in opposite directions as the Rebel faithful are fired up just to be relevant again while Auburn fans are left scratching their head about this season.

This is not a favorable matchup for Auburn. While Auburn’s offensive woes this season are well documented, here are some numbers to show how bad it’s really gotten: Only Alabama has more rushing attempts than the Tigers, yet Auburn ranks 11th in the SEC in both ypc (3.34) and rush TDs (7). The Rebels, for all their problems in the secondary, have a talented front 7 that has held opponents to a 3.15 ypc average this season, 4th best in conference. And something tells me that the Rebels aren’t exactly quivering at the thought of AU’s QBs.

Meanwhile, the once stout Tiger D has been shredded in recent weeks by WVU (445 yds) and Arkansas (416 yds). The Rebels sport the conference’s 4th best offense (377.6 ypg) and will look to take advantage of a reeling Tiger D. If the Rebels can minimize turnovers like they did last week, they should have a productive day on offense.

This is a pivotal game for those teams for bowl positioning, particularly for Auburn. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they’re just off their game this year. Last weekend, the Rebels beat their head coach’s former team. This week, they’ll knock off their former head coach. Ole Miss wins a close one, notching their first home conference win since November 2006.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Auburn

(#19,#18)Tulsa (8-0) @Arkansas (3-5, 1-4)
1:00 CDT
All-Time Series: Arkansas 52-15-2
Wednesday's Line: Tulsa -7

This hasn’t been a competitive series since the outset and Arkansas has won 16 games in a row. The last Golden Hurricane win came in 1976. The Hogs are 40-5 against Tulsa in Fayetteville, though this is certainly the most explosive TU team the Hogs have faced. After dropping a game to former HC Houston Nutt last week, the Hogs will try to avoid losing to his former OC this week.

They’ll have to stop a ridiculous offense that has torched everyone it’s played this season. In 8 games Tulsa has scored 61 TD (32 passing/26 rushing/3 other), is averaging 55.6 ppg, 601.1 ypg, 8.2 ypp, and leads the nation in scoring and total offense, ranks #5 in passing offense, and 7th in rushing offense. That said, they’ve done it against 7 1A opponents who combine to be 17-39 and a 1AA opponent.

Unquestionably, this will be Tulsa’s biggest test off the season. While Arkansas is certainly not an elite SEC team, they have the size and speed to compete with the gimmick offense that the Golden Hurricane is running. The biggest question will be if the Hogs can get up for this one after the disappointment of last week’s game. They’ll play well, but not enough to pull the upset.

Straight Up Winner: Tulsa
Against the Spread: Tulsa

Kentucky (5-3, 1-3) @ Mississippi State (3-5, 1-3)
1:30 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Kentucky 20-15
Wednesday's Line: Mississippi State -2.5

Last year in Lexington, MSU knocked off a worn-out ‘Cats team fresh off grueling battles with South Carolina, LSU, and Florida, all in the Top 15 when UK played them. MSU forced 6 2nd half TOs last year in the upset. The ‘Cats are 6-9 in Starkville, including 2006’s 34-31 win.

Looking to spark a struggling offense, UK is turning the reins over to Randall (Don’t call him Tex) Cobb, the multi-talented freshmen who caught the two TDs in the final minutes to secure UK’s comeback against Arkansas a few weeks back. The injury situation is worse than a week ago when the already decimated ‘Cats were throttled by UK. To borrow a paragraph from A Sea of Blue: Micah Johnson has re-injured his sprained ankle and is doubtful. Marcus McClinton's knee is a bit worse, Myron Pyor is still out, Kyrus Lanxter is still down with a knee, Ricky Lumpkin has a strained calf, Justin Jeffries and Maurice Grinter are banged up, as is Josh Minton. Dicky Lyons and Derrick Locke are both still out for the season.
The Bulldogs aren’t exactly world beaters, but this is a good matchup for them. While the insertion of Cobb may jolt a little life back into the offense, it won’t be enough to overcome the injury situation. The Bulldogs got back to running the football last week and had one of their most productive offensive days of the season, albeit against a Sun Belt team. Both UK and MSU rank in the middle of the pack in total defense (though UK’s #s are a bit skewed after the UF game) and towards the back of the pack in total offense.

By the time this one’s over, there still may not be 20 points on the board. While it won’t set modern football back 50 years like Auburn’s visit to Starkville did, this one won’t be much more entertaining. The ‘Cats feasted on cupcakes early in the season, but have too many injuries at key positions to pull this one off. I’ve suspected all season that this Kentucky team was mediocre. After this week, I think most will have to agree.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Arkansas State (4-3) @ (#2, #2)Alabama (8-0, 5-0)
2:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Alabama 1-0
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -23.5

With all the critical conference games this weekend, hard to spend any time on this one. Alabama is prone to letdowns. It’ll probably happen again this week, though I doubt it’s as severe as the early season versions. This Arkansas State team did knock off Texas A&M team in College Station in the season opener, but they suck. Alabama doesn’t. No reason for this one to even be a contest. Alabama improves to 17-1 against Sun Belt teams with a big Homecoming win.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Arkansas State

(#8,#8)Georgia (7-1, 4-1) vs (#5,#7)Florida (6-1, 4-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 47-37-2
Wednesday's Line: Florida -5.5

The World's Largest Don't Call it a Cocktail Party returns to Jacksonville for the 74th time this weekend. It sports 2 top 10 teams for just the 5th time in series history. While UGA won last year, that was the exception to recent rule, as the Gators are 15-3 over the last 18 years against the 'Dawgs.

This game basically serves as an SEC East Championship game and a national title elimination game. Both teams are still in the hunt for a BCS Title game berth, but a loss would knock them out. The teams rank #1 and #2 in the conference in scoring (UF 42.0ppg, UGA 34.3 ppg). The big difference comes on the defensive side of the ball where Florida again leads the conference (11.9 ppg) while UGA checks in at #8 (20.3 ppg).

There should be plenty of fireworks in this one. Florida is cruising right now and UGA QB Stafford played one of his best games of the season last week on the road against LSU. The Gators' run D gives up just 3.36 ypc, so it will be interesting to see if Moreno can find space to run. There's little reason to believe he won't have a good day, but if the Gators can limit his big plays they'll win the overall battle.

I'm not one who believes that TCTUMWNF* had much to do with UGA's win last year. The Gators were rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball and Tebow was not 100% in that game and the 'Dawgs were the best team in the nation over the last several games last season. Those are similar reasons to why Florida wins this year. The Gators are peaking having outscored opponents 152-33 since their slip up against Ole Miss. Meanwhile, the 'Dawgs have done a remarkable job with basically a makeshift offensive line and have other costly injuries at key positions. Look for the Gators to assume control of the East with a close victory in Jacksonville.
*the Celebration that Urban Meyer Will Never Forget

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Tennessee (3-5, 1-4) @ South Carolina (5-3, 2-3)
6:00 CDT, ESPN2
All-Time Series: Tennessee 21-3-2
Wednesday's Line: South Carolina -5.5

Like Kentucky, South Carolina has basically been penciled in as a “win” every season for Volunteer fans. Phil Fulmer is 14-1 as a HC against SC, losing only in 2005 in Knoxville. Fulmer improved to 5-8 all-time against Spurrier. The Gamecocks dominated the game statistically last season but 4 TOs and poor special teams play cost them a 27-24 OT loss.

Much like the Auburn/Ole Miss game, if South Carolina doesn’t get it done this weekend, when will they? The Vols are reeling while the Gamecocks are playing better, despite the heartbreaking loss to LSU. SC QB Garcia has rejuvenated (to a degree) a once stagnant offense, but will have to minimize his mistakes (and cockiness) against a stout Vols’ D, which gives up less than 280 ypg and is anchored by all-world DB Eric Berry.

This is going to be a tougher matchup than Gamecock fans want. USC has not been able to run the ball on anyone this year – 100 ypg, 4 TDS – and the Vols D gives up just 101 ypg on the ground. The Vols also have given up just 5 passing TDs while picking off 14 passes, a handful of which have been returned for TDs. With the Gamecocks’ propensity to give up the ball - nation’s worst 23 turnovers! – ball control will be mandatory. If the Gamecocks force the Vols to drive the length of the field for points, they’ll be in good shape.

The Gamecocks lead the SEC in total defense (256.1 ypg) and rank 4th nationally. The Vols offense has been bad all season, so don’t expect any kind of a breakout game here. This should be a good, old fashioned, hard-hitting SEC game, with the winner being determined by whose QB makes the fewest mistakes.

The Vols will be desperate for a win here, but the Gamecocks will be ready. This is a huge game for them as a loss will actually drop them below the Vols in the conference standings. Spurrier will have a smart, simplistic game plan for Garcia to take advantage of his mobility and will get back to terrorizing his old punching bag the Great Punkin. South Carolina wins a close one.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Tulane (2-5) @ (#15,#15)LSU (5-2, 3-2)
7:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: LSU 67-22-7
Wednesday's Line: LSU -24.5

LSU squares off with Tulane for the 3rd straight year this weekend in another one of those “Oh, really? Who cares?” games. LSU has outscored the Green Wave 83-16 the last 2 years and this one will probably be just as ugly. Tulane hasn’t beaten LSU since 1982. Last year’s game was close for a half. This year’s won’t be as the Tigers use this as a rebound game before the showdown with Saban and the Tide.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Week 9 SEC Power Poll

2008-10-29T06:33:00.001-07:00

The new power poll is up and there's nothing really earth-shattering this go round. Most teams have settled into their comfortable little niche in the pecking order. For all the insight you just can't get anywhere else, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

My SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 9

2008-10-28T12:28:00.000-07:00

With each passing week, it becomes more and more evident that the SEC isn't as deep this year as it has been in years past, particularly last year. The top 5 teams are pretty clear, but after that, it's a garbled mess of mediocrity. Here's how I see it.

1. Alabama
Tide finally played both halves and the result was a second straight year of Big Orange demolition.

2. Florida
In all honesty, the 63-5 score really doesn’t do the utter domination justice. It really wasn’t even that close. The Gators passed their final test before the SEC East Championship Game this weekend.

3. Georgia
Basically ended the game Saturday on the first play from scrimmage. While the defense gave up a lot of garbage yards and points late in the fourth, the offense was clicking on all cylinders. Should be one helluva game Saturday in Jacksonville.

4. LSU
The Tigers were shredded by the Beasts of the East, which may not bode well for next weekend’s Best of the West showdown with the Tide.

5. South Carolina
Had the weekend off, but solidified themselves as 5th best in the conference. Need to find a way to beat Tennessee this weekend, something they’ve done just once over the last decade and a half.

6. Ole Miss
Bounced back from a tough loss in Tuscaloosa to beat a fired up Arkansas team. Could this be the weekend they start a *gasp* winning streak in conference?

7. Vanderbilt
With a few more lackluster performances like the one Saturday, the ‘Dores could turn 5-0 into 5-7. Have a week off to right the ship, though a visit from the Gators will only make matters worse.

8. Auburn
If the Tigers would just stick to running the ball they’d be fine… or at least better. A loss Saturday to Ole Miss would jeopardize bowl chances and crank up the heat on Tuberville’s seat.

9. Tennessee
Same ol’ Vols against Bama: Another ugly game from the offense, another highlight reel play for Eric Berry.

10. Kentucky
Sure the ‘Cats lost by 58 points, but the punter averaged 50+ ypk and they only committed 3 penalties so all is not lost. Until a loss in Starkville this weekend drops them to #12.

11. Arkansas
Again played a more talented opponent close, but couldn’t seal the deal. This one hurts Hog fans more than the blowouts to Florida and Alabama.

12. Mississippi State
Used the same game plan against MTSU as they did Vandy – pound the ball with Dixon and don’t put it on the ground. Should work this weekend against Kentucky as well.

Bowl Projections, Week 10

2008-10-27T14:31:00.001-07:00

The most notable change is that only CBS has an SEC team in the BCS Title game. Two weeks ago, all 5 “experts” had either the Tide or the Gators playing for this year’s MNC. With PSU’s win in Columbus over the Buckeyes Saturday though, many feel that JoePa will make it back to a national title game. PSU certainly has the inside track now as the Big10 not only sucks, but has no championship game.

Most still feel that the SEC will get 10 teams in bowls, but I just don’t see it. Either Vanderbilt or Kentucky will go bowling, but not both.

• Kentucky needs just 1 win, but their remaining schedule and current injury situation doesn’t set up well for them. They play road games against weaker SEC teams in Starkville and Knoxville, but can you honestly say that UK is going to win either of those? They’ve got home dates with UGA and Vandy left. The UGA game won’t be close. The Vandy game seems to present the ‘Cats with the best chance to lock up a bowl bid.

• Vandy also needs just 1 win for eligibility, but it’s going to be tough. Kentucky seems to be their best shot at a win. Florida won’t be close. They host UT, but the Vols are too physical a team for the ‘Dores to handle, particularly now that their luck seems to have run dry. They close the season at Wake Forest, but the Deacons are a well-disciplined team who don’t turn the ball over much. VU will struggle in Winston-Salem.

• As poorly as they've played lately, I still feel Tennessee will end up in a low-level bowl. They need to finish 3-1... well 3-0 after they get beat in Columbia this weekend. Starting next weekend, they close with Wyoming, @ Vandy, and Kentucky. None of those teams are very good. It may not be enough to save Fulmer's job, but it will be a strong finish to the season.

• Auburn is 4-4 and still needs 2 wins. They’re possibly fighting for bowl eligibility this weekend in Oxford as 2 of their remaining games are against Georgia and Alabama. They’ve got a gimme against UT-Martin, but if they slip up in Oxford Saturday, they Tigers may be home for the holidays.

• I tend to think Ole Miss is fairly safe. They’re just 4-4 – like Auburn – but have games against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State left on the schedule in addition to Saturday’s Auburn game and a trip to Baton Rouge. They should be able to split those 4.

Your Captions, I Need Them, Give Them to Me

2008-10-27T09:20:00.001-07:00

I'm sure somewhere there is a legitimate explanation for this photograph, I just can't fathom one right now. Can someone please explain this to me? Why is there an old man wearing an LSU cheerleader outfit?

Or better yet, post your caption in the comments area.

Saturday Morning Randomness

2008-10-25T06:58:00.000-07:00

- What is going on at Auburn, seriously? Much like the Vanderbilt game, the offense started out strongly, pounding the ball right at WVU. In the 2nd quarter, they jumped up by 2 TDs and recovered a surprise onside kick… and then it seemed they ran every play out of the shotgun. Why didn’t they just continue to take the ball right at WVU’s DL?

- Part of me believe that Tuberville has earned the right to have a down year after the 10 year run he’s had at Auburn. But there’s another part that’s gaining some serious momentum that says he realizes it may be time to move on. You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.

- I’ve taken heat from Arkansas fans on this site over some of the things I’ve said about Petrino. I can only image the emails Greg Doyle is getting after this piece. FTA:

Run it up, Houston Nutt. That's what I'm saying. That's what would be appropriate. That's what the lunatic fringe in Arkansas deserves. Run it up so badly that Arkansas fans in attendance leave in the third quarter because they can't stand the sight of your fist in the air. Run it up so badly that Arkansas fans elsewhere turn off the television and the radio and even the computer, because not even the cowardly company of the meanest message board will get them through this beatdown.

- My guess is that Nutt will be happy to get out with a 1-point win. The Rebels can’t seem to stay out of their own way this year having already dropped 4 close games this year, most of which can be traced back to careless turnovers.

- I hope the rumblings surrounding Eric Berry playing offense this weekend are true. The Vols need a playmaker on the offensive side of the ball and Berry’s proven he’s a star time and again on interception returns. He not only leads the country in picks, he also averages 35 yds per return. Here's another cool Eric Berry story.

- Senator Blutarsky at Get the Picture offers his final thoughts on today's uber-matchup between LSU and Georgia.

- Corso is feeling particularly frisky this morning. He just declared that "USC kicked the crap out of Ohio State" and he's wondering "what the hell is going on".

- Guns n' Roses actually set a release date for the long-talked-about Chinese Democracy album and released the title track. It doesn’t suck nearly as much as you thought it would…

Week 9 Picks

2008-10-22T19:31:00.000-07:00

Thursday
Auburn (4-3, 2-3) @ West Virginia (4-2)
6:30 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday's Line: West Virginia -2.5

This is probably not exactly what ESPN had in mind when it picked this game up. Both of these teams ranked in the preseason Top 10 in the AP poll, now both of them are struggling for an identity. WVU hired their version of Larry Coker in the offseason and Auburn… well, they’ve had some coaching issues too. Working in Auburn’s favor is their 6-1 record all time on Thursday night, they’re 18-5 in road/neutral games since 2004, and the fact that DC Paul Rhoads is familiar with WVU’s offense from his days at Pitt.

The Mountaineers actually enter the game on a 3-game win streak, but the wins have been at home over 3 teams who combine to be 6-15. The Mountaineers rank in the middle of the pack in the Big East in total offense and defense, but do average 220+ yds on the ground. Auburn gives up less than 110 per game, so that’s the point of emphasis this week for the Tigers.

Games like these have become Tuberville’s forte. He backs himself into a corner, goes on the road as an underdog, and next thing you know, Wes Byrum is running around going the Gator Chop. As poorly as AU has played offensively the last 3 games, you’ve got figure there’s nowhere to go but up. Look for Auburn to get back to running the football first, throwing second. The Mountaineers have beaten an SEC team in 3 straight years, but it won’t happen this weekend. A win in Morgantown would go a long way in silencing the loud rumblings on the Plains. And few are better than Tuberville at that.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Saturday
Kentucky (5-2, 1-2) @ (#10, #5)Florida (5-1, 3-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Florida 40-17
Wednesday's Line: Florida -24.5

Besides self-righteous Irish fans, no one hated Navy’s victory over Notre Dame last year more than the Big Blue. Now that ND’s 44-game win streak over Navy is no more, Kentucky is now on the butt end of the 2-longest losing streaks, having not beaten Tennessee or Florida since the Reagan administration.

The $64,000 question is whether Florida rediscovered itself in the romp over LSU in the Swamp or they merely caught LSU on an off night. The Gators offense had looked like a shell of its 2007 self before blasting the Tigers 2 weeks ago. The ‘Cats offense woke up in the final 5 minutes of their rally over Arkansas, but now they’re without starting RB Locke for the rest of the season. This year’s Kentucky team would have problems scoring on last year’s Florida team.

This one will be ugly. No two ways about it. Florida is 25-7 vs UK in Gainesville and the ‘Cats haven’t won there since 1979. While the Gators are just 1-3 the week before the WLOCP the last 4 years, but the “1” was last year’s victory over a ranked, healthy UK team. Kentucky is neither this year and this is going to get out of hand early. While the line is bigger than I’d like, Meyer’s never been one to call off the dogs, so you gotta lay the points.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

Dook (3-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-2, 3-2)
2:00 CDT
All-Time Series: Vanderbilt 7-3
Wednesday's Line: Vanderbilt -10.5

While certainly not the most exciting game of the weekend, it could turn out to be the “best” game. These are two evenly matched teams, despite the discrepancy in records. Vanderbilt has come back to earth after a remarkable start. For all their struggles in the mighty SEC, the ‘Dores have fared significantly better against the little boys from the ACC, posting a 7-3 record over the last 10 years.

This is a tricky game for Vanderbilt. The Dookies take good care of the ball – just 7 turnovers all season – and punt the ball fairly well. Both those mean Vanderbilt may have to drive the length of the field to score which has not been their calling card this year, though they showed a little life offensively with Adams at QB. They’ll be tested in this one, but the ’Dores will come out on top.

Straight Up Winner: Vanderbilt
Against the Spread: Dook

(#7, #9)Georgia (6-1, 3-1) @ (#13, #11)LSU (5-1, 3-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: LSU 14-11-1
Wednesday's Line: LSU -2

This should be one of the best games in conference all season. Two BCS Bowl winners from last season square off in a crucial interdivision game that makes a division title a real unlikelihood for the loser. Both teams rank in the top 3 in the conference in total offense (UGA #1, LSU#3), though UGA ranks 3rd in total D while the Tigers rank 9th.

The key matchup in this game will be the pressure either team gets on the others QB. Georgia ranks 8th in conference in sacks while LSU leads the conference in fewest sack surrendered. On the flip side, LSU is 3rd in the conference in sacks and UGA is 3rd in fewest given up. QB Jarrett Lee proved last week he could make some key throws in a hostile environment against a better defense. He could have a real breakout game in this one.

When this one is all said and done, UGA’s injuries and subsequent inexperience will be their undoing. While most of the stats point to the ‘Dawgs winning this one, until I see them play a complete game, I’m not going to call for one to magically appear in Death Valley. Georgia is a better team than LSU is and Mark Richt has been masterful on the road in the SEC. I’m going against my better judgment and saying that LSU wins this one.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Ole Miss (3-4, 1-3) @ Arkansas (3-4, 1-3)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Either Arkansas 29-24-1 or 30-23-1
Wednesday's Line: Ole Miss -5

How is this one not on TV, besides PPV? Really and truly, I thought this was a shoe-in to be on somewhere. With the Right Reverend Nutt’s return to Fayetteville, there’s no telling what to expect from Hogs’ fans. Messy divorcees shouldn’t cross paths so soon after the split.

This is another one of those games that – on paper – shouldn’t be all that close. The Hogs rank behind the Rebels in both total offense and total defense. There’s a good chance the offense will be without the SEC’s leading rusher in Michael Smith who remains day-to-day after sustaining a concussion in the Kentucky game last week. Once he left the game, the Hogs managed just 11 yds on their final 13 plays from scrimmage.

The Rebels’ main weaknesses are turnovers and pass defense. Fortunately for OM, the Hogs struggle with turnovers as well. Unfortunately for the Rebels, Arkansas ranks 3rd in conference in passing yds per game. If Smith doesn’t play, the Rebs will be able to drop more men into coverage, making life difficult for Dick. Even if Smith does play, it shouldn’t matter. Look for the Rebs’ most complete game since their win in Gainesville.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

MTSU (2-5) @ Mississippi State (2-5, 1-3)
6:00 CDT, ESPNU
All-Time Series: Mississippi State 2-0
Wednesday's Line: Mississippi State -10

This is one of those games that would actually make sense to not be on TV because honestly, who wants to watch this? I doubt many Bulldog fans are stoked about a trip to Starkville to watch this game.

MSU has scored 101 pts in the two previous meetings, but will be hard pressed to get to 14 this game. The MTSU defense isn’t exactly stout, but MSU’s offense is putrid at best. Look for the Blue Raiders to spring the upset Saturday and Woody McCorvey to be relieved of his duties sometime next week.

Straight Up Winner: Middle Tennessee State
Against the Spread: Middle Tennessee State

(#2, #2)Alabama (7-0, 4-0) @ Tennessee (3-4, 1-3)
6:45 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: Alabama 45-38-7
Wednesday's Line: Alabama -6.5

Another classic SEC matchup Saturday night in Knoxville as the Crimson Tide rolls into town. Alabama stomped UT 41-17 last year in Tuscaloosa, but hasn’t won back to back games in this series since 1991-92. Alabama has dropped its last two games in Knoxville buy a total of 7 points. Last year’s romp was the exception to the rule as 4 of the last 5 have been decided by 8 pts or less.

It will be interesting to see how the Alabama D performs for a whole game without Cody in the middle. Fortunately for them, the UT offense has been bad all season, so they should be fine. The bigger question is how the Tide O will perform against the UT D, which will be the best they’ve faced this year. JPW threw two of the prettiest deep balls of his life last weekend against Ole Miss, but also chucked some head-scratchers. Any lame ducks thrown against UT will be picked off by Eric Berry and run back the other way for 6. Assuming Eric Berry is on Julio Jones, that could be one of the most entertaining individual matchups of the weekend.

A line this small for teams with this much discrepancy in their season accomplishments tells you that Vegas knows something’s up with this game. They don’t know how the D will look without Cody, they don’t know if the Tide can put together two halves. Something tells me that Saban finally got through to his players and Alabama plays a complete game Saturday night. It’ll be a hard fought, low scoring game, but the Vols just don’t have it this year.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Alabama

SEC Power Poll, Week 8

2008-10-22T08:01:00.000-07:00

The numbers to the right of your team allow you to track your team's progress from Week 1 to Week 4 to Week 8. Each represents their rank in conference (according to our voters) with 12 being the highest. You can really see Alabama's relentless rise, Florida holding incredibly steady, Vanderbilt moving up and Ole Miss being right about where we expected them to be

For all the insight you'll only find from Power Poll voters, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

My Week 8 SEC Power Poll Ballot

2008-10-22T05:30:00.000-07:00

1. Alabama
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Tide. Since the UGA game, Alabama has outscored its opponents 69-3 in the first half but been outscored 61-13 in the 2nd half.

2. Florida
Solidified the #2 spot in the poll with an off weekend. Will solidify it even more with the impending destruction of Kentucky this weekend.

3. LSU
Last Saturday night’s game in Columbia showed there’s still some life left in the defending BCS champs. QB Jarret Lee looked calm under pressure and made some key throws when needed. Confidence builder for Satuday’s uber-matchup with Georgia.

4. Georgia
Another win, another game that makes you wonder if the UGA is holding something back or if they’re just not as good as we originally thought. Saturday’s tilt on the Bayou will answer a lot of questions.

5. South Carolina
Garcia showed signs of brilliance, particularly in the 2nd quarter, but also displayed an air of cockiness that cost the Gamecocks. As he matures in the offense, SC will only get more efficient through the air. Now, about that running game…

6. Kentucky
Probably shouldn’t have needed a late rally to edge Arkansas, but they got the job done. Injuries starting to become a real factor.

7. Ole Miss
The Rebels may actually deserve to be higher than this, but until they stop turning the ball over every other possession, we’ll never know. Only South Carolina has turned the ball over more than the Rebels have in conference.

8. Vanderbilt
Didn’t win, but kept the game closer than most expected. Can clinch bowl eligibility this weekend against Dook.

9. Auburn
Utilized the off weekend to design several new offensive plays that won’t work.

10. Tennessee
Railroaded a hapless MSU team, but defense scored two of the TDs. Offense was again mediocre. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Eric Berry is the best player in the SEC.

11. Arkansas
Played very well for 3 quarters but lost it in the waning moments of the 4th. All will be forgiven by the HogNation if the Razorbacks come out victorious this weekend.

12. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs took another gigantic step towards completely erasing last year’s 8-win season from the minds of their fans. This is just a bad team. No way Woody McCorvey has a job next year.

Random Request for Tide fans (or anyone)

2008-10-21T10:00:00.000-07:00

In 2002, after Dennis Franchione left the Tide for Texas A&M there was an epic rant by some lady on a call-in show. She ripped "Fran" a new a-hole and - as I remember - it was one of the best fan rants ever. It seemed to last forever and she only gained momentum as she went along.

Does anyone still have the audio file to that? I swore I still had it somewhere in my email, but apparently I was wrong. Any assistance would be much appreciated.

Week 8 Grades

2008-10-20T09:01:00.000-07:00

No real standout performances this weekend. The better team won every game and no one really exerted themselves in dominant fashion.

LSU: A-
Rebounded nicely from last week’s debacle to pick up a nice conference road win. Weathered a 17-point Gamecock outburst in the 2nd quarter to play an otherwise solid defensive game. Held SC to 39 yds rushing and a 1.3 ypc avg and forced 3 turnovers. Solid outing from the young Tiger QBs and the veteran RBs. LSU’s best win of the season.

Tennessee: A-
Another fairly stagnant offensive performance for the Vols – 275 yds – but the defense was there as usual to carry them. Not 1, not 3, but 2 MSU passes were picked off and run back for TDs in the 4th quarter busting open a semi-close game. Eric Berry continues to get my vote for best player in conference. A good, much needed win on the 2nd Saturday in October considering what happens on the 3rd.

Georgia: B
Another one of those games that leaves you wanting more from the ‘Dawgs. Were obviously the most talented team on the field and dominated every statistic except the scoreboard. They led by only 7 at the break and won by only 10 despite outgaining VU by 180 yds. Cut back significantly on the penalties. Stafford has a ho-hum day but Moreno finally had his season breakout game with 170+ yds and a 7.5 ypc average.

Kentucky: B
Whoduthunkit? The offensively-challenged ‘Cats used two late TDs to snag a must-win game. The rushing defense was gouged early and often by Michael Smith, but the secondary held Casey Dick to 94 yds and 38% through the air. Outgained the Hogs for the game despite having the ball for 12 minutes less than Arkansas did. Randall Cobb caught 2 TD throws from Mike Hartline in the final 4:21 of the game to rally the ‘Cats (and save my College Pick ‘Em entry)

Ole Miss: B
Stop me if you’ve heard this before – Ole Miss played well Saturday, but careless turnovers cost them a shot a win. They have to be the best 3-4 team in the country. Actually scored on ‘Bama in the 1st quarter and were winning, both of which were Tide firsts this season. Outgained the Tide and were nearly able to take advantage of a lackadaisical 2nd half by Alabama.

Alabama: B-
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Early on, the Tide looked like the #2 team in the country and ready to challenge for a BCS title. For the rest of the game, they looked like Mike Dubose was back. Looked dominant in the 1st half, but completely different team in the 2nd half, particularly without Mt. Cody stuffing the run. Completely nullified the “Wild Rebel”. Will need to tighten things up and play a complete game at some point or it will cost them against LSU or UGA/UF.

Vanderbilt: B-
Despite being dominated in nearly every facet of the game, the ‘Dores once again found away to hang around against a more talented team. Although the defense gave up way too many yds (425), it did do a good job getting off the field when the opportunity was there, holding UGA to 1-8 on 3rd downs. WR Jamie Graham hauled in 2 TD passes from new starter Makenzi Adams.

Arkansas: C+
Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the waning moments of the 4th quarter, but another improved effort for the first 50 minutes of the game. Michael Smith is a stud RB and had another big game, but the passing game provided no help. The defense bottled up UK for the most part – forcing 4 turnovers. Unfortunately, the Hogs committed 13 penalties for 102 yds and 4 TOs of their own.

South Carolina: C+
This is one of those games you’ve got to win to be considered a big time program. The crowd was as raucous as it’s ever been at Brice-Williams, the QB of the future making his first home start, a chance to have a 3-game conference winning streak, but the Gamecocks couldn’t get it done. The offense sputtered for 75% of the game and while the defense played well, it couldn’t get off the field on 3rd downs (LSU was 6/14).

Bonus: For those of you who somehow haven’t seen this, well, here ya go…

Mississippi State: D-
This team is just bad, so it’s hard to give them an “F”. The defense held UT fairly well, but the offense was just horrible, mustering only a FG and throwing 2 TDs to UT DBs. MSU really didn’t do anything well this game except hold a mediocre UT offense to less than 300 yds. I’m scouring the box score looking for something to spin in a positive light and all I can come up with is that Wesley Carroll didn’t throw an INT. He was 1/7 for 6 yds, but no INTs.

Tommy Tuberville's gmail account

2008-10-16T17:47:00.000-07:00

With all the hoopla surrounding the kid that hacked Sarah Palin's email, I had my investigative staff lay low for a while. As the Palin story cooled down and things on the Plains heated up, they were able to hack into Tuberville's gmail. See below.

*Click on image to see for full size

Other examples of their work:
Sylvester Croom
Phil Fulmer
Houston Nutt
Bobby Petrino

Week 8 Picks

2008-10-15T20:48:00.000-07:00

Saturday
(#22,#23)Vanderbilt (5-1, 3-1) @ (#10, #9)Georgia (5-1, 2-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Georgia 48-18-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -15

Though the all-time series is lopsided, this has been a very close game the last two seasons. The Commodores won the last they played in Athens and then choked the game away last year in Nashville. The furious comeback/late FG by UGA built some real momentum though, as UGA is 11-1 since.

On paper this game shouldn’t be close. Georgia leads the SEC in total offense – 430.3 ypg – and VU ranks 10th in total defense – 318. ypg. The ‘Dores also sport the worst offense in the conference – 250.2 ypg – while the ‘Dawgs will trot out the 4th best defense (statistically speaking), giving up just 273.8 ypg. If you watched the game against UT last week, you saw UGA finally show some toughness in the trenches and really neutralize a good Vols OL & DL.

Knowshown Moreno is actually taking a little bit of flack for not living up to preseason expectations, but this will be his breakout game. The Vandy D is tied for the conference lead with 11 INTs, but has had trouble stopping the run all season. As long as Stafford plays smart, The ‘Dawgs will have no problems in this one. Look for Moreno to go for 150+ and a couple of TDS to boot.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Ole Miss (3-3, 1-2) @ (#2, #2)Alabama (6-0, 3-0)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 44-9-2
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -13

Like the VU/UGA series, this one is equally as lopsided, but has been very close lately, though Alabama has won the last 4 games. The last 3 have been decided by 3 points apiece and have not been without their fair share of controversy. At least it led to a catchy ditty.

Both teams are much improved over last season – the Tide is #2 in the country and the Rebs have already matched last season’s win total. Houston Nutt has won the last two road games against top 5 SEC teams he’s faced, having beaten Florida in Gainesville a few weeks back and coaching Arkansas over LSU in last year’s season finale. While I don’t think he has the magic to pull this one out, it could again be closer than Tide fans would want it.

While the Tide are undefeated, they’ve “lost” 5 of the last 6 quarters of football they’ve played. After an absolutely perfect 1st half in Athens, Alabama did little in the second half and then laid an egg for the final 3 quarters of the Kentucky game. If they get up big in the first half, they’ve not shown the knack for staying focused and keeping a big lead.

Bottom line is that this Tide team is too physical and too disciplined to lose to Ole Miss Saturday. Mt. Cody will continue to wreak havoc in the middle and JPW should be able to have some success against a less than stellar OM secondary. The Tide wins, but not by as much as they “should”.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Arkansas (3-3, 1-2) @ Kentucky (4-2, 0-2)
6:00 CDT, ESPNU
All-Time Series: Kentucky 3-2
Wednesday’s Line: Kentucky -9

The last time these two hooked up in Lexington, Arkansas won an epic 71-63, 7OT thriller. They could play this game 3x and not get to that score this year. The road team has won 3 straight in this series.

The Hogs played their best game of the season last week. They rode the SEC’s leading rusher to a shocking upset on the Plains. They’ll find it tough to runt he ball against a UK defense that’s given up just 1 rushing TD this season. On the other side of the ball, the ‘Cats may finally find some offensive consistency against a Hogs D that – up until last week – had been porous.

Arkansas won’t be able to maintain the same level of intensity and execution they had in dismantling Auburn last weekend. UK will be in full-on desperation mode as they want to avoid dropping to 0-3 in conference. Rich Brooks still harbors some animosity towards Petrino from his time at Louisville, so he’ll make sure his UK squad is ready to roll. Look for the ‘Cats to win a good one.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Mississippi State (2-4, 1-2) @ Tennessee (2-4, 0-3)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Tennessee 27-15-1
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -7.5

Like so many other games this year in conference, this one has the potential to be ugly. Both teams sport a strong defense but an impotent offense. Not sure why anyone who’s not a Vol or Bulldog would actually pay money to watch this game on TV. The Vols must win this game to keep their outside chances at a bowl game alive. The Bulldogs would like to carry over some momentum from their victory over Vandy.

The Vols will get it done this weekend in Knoxville. They’ve shown some signs of life with Stephens under center and this will be his 3rd start, so the jitters shouldn’t be a factor. Look for UT to win a low-scoring game, though giving up more than at TD is too much to ask.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

(#13,#14)LSU (4-1, 2-1) @ South Carolina (5-2, 2-2)
7:00 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: LSU 15-2-1
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -3

LSU and South Carolina square off for just the 6th time since 1992 this weekend in Columbia. The Tigers beat the Gamecocks 28-16 last year in Baton Rouge and have dominated the series all time.

As hyped as the LSU defense was before last week’s game, the numbers tell a different story. Florida shredded them for 475 yds, including a 6.5 ypc average. More disturbing is the fact they’ve only forced 4 turnovers all season, a far cry from the 36 they forced last season. With the Gamecocks offense looking good with Stephen Garcia under center last week, the Tigers will be in for another dual-threat QB test.

This will be a different LSU team this week. The Gamecocks are not nearly as explosive as Florida and won’t be able to bury LSU early. The Tigers will ride Charles Scott and their big OL against the Gamecocks’8th in conference rushing D. Something tells me this is the game the defense gets itself back on tracked and takes advantage of an overexcited Garcia.

The Gamecocks finally beat Ole Miss in conference play a couple of weeks ago, but they won’t have the same luck with LSU. The Tigers will be a focused group out to prove that last weekend’s debacle in the Swamp was just a fluke.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

SEC Power Poll, Week 7

2008-10-15T10:08:00.000-07:00

The votes are in for Week 7’s SEC Power Poll and there are come changes in the minds of the voters. Not to give anything away, but if your team is nicknamed the “igers-Tay” or “olunteers-Vay”, you’re not ranked as high as you were this time last week.

To read all the witty snarkiness, check out Garnet and Black Attack.

Week 7 SEC Bowl Projections

2008-10-14T18:17:00.000-07:00

We're at about the midpoint of the season, so at least semi-intelligent conversations about bowl games can be had. Below is a consolidated chart of 5 opinions about where the conference teams are going this holiday season.

All 5 agree that the SEC will get 10 teams in post season play, though they're not in agreement as to whether team 10 is Tennessee or Arkansas. Of those 2, Tennessee seems to have the better shot as their schedule is a little easier than the Razorbacks' is. At least at this point, everyone's in agreement that Alabama and Florida will be the SEC's 2 BCS game representatives, though I'm sure Georgia fans believe they have something to say about that.

The four people projecting Alabama in the BCS Title Game obviously have the Tide winning the SEC Championship game first. I wonder if they see Georgia winning the East then losing a second time to the Tide in Atlanta and that's how the Gators make it to the Sugar Bowl. It would be the same situation as Missouri was in last year - losing to OU in the Big12 Title Game, then watching as Kansas got invited to the Orange Bowl.

Also, I'm not convinced 10 teams will finish with 6 wins. While it's certainly no guarantee that either Arkansas or Tennessee will, don't forget how bad Auburn has looked in recent weeks. They need 2 more wins and other than a home game with UT-Martin, they probably won't be favored again this year. They play @WVU, @Ole Miss, vs UGA, and @Alabama.

Week 7 Grades

2008-10-13T20:58:00.001-07:00

Florida: A+
This one was over before it even started. The floodgates opened early for the Gators and they buried LSU in the first quarter before cruising to a resounding victory. Reestablished themselves as the favorite in the East.

Mississippi State: A
Congratulations to MSU for being the first team all season to hold onto the ball against Vanderbilt. The offensive numbers weren’t great – less than 250 total yds – but the Bulldogs had 0 turnovers and forced 2 Commodore turnovers. It never hurts to hold you opponent to 107 total yards.

Arkansas: A-
Arkansas’ defense has been bad all season, but got just the cure in Auburn’s impotent “offense”. What was more surprising was the way the Hogs carved up the Tigers normally reliable defense. Without a few miscues – particularly on Special Teams – this game wouldn’t have been close.

Georgia: B
After the last two games against the Vols, the ‘Dawgs will take any win they can get, but this one wasn’t easy. They dominated the stats – 458-209 total yards, 29-10 FD, 42:04-17:56 TOP – but managed only 6 2nd half points and led by only 6 at the start of the 4th quarter. The 11:00 minute FG drive was a back breaker for the Vols.

South Carolina: B
Maybe this was officially the beginning of the Stephen Garcia era. He added a new dimension the ‘Cocks’ offense. The 4 turnovers is way too many though. Big play in Special Teams was a big life in an otherwise stagnant first half for SC.

Kentucky: C
The ‘Cats again played fairly well, but were outmanned by the Gamecocks. Their defense had no answer for Stephen Garcia, though it did force 4 turnovers. Special Teams breakdown on FG attempt was huge and ended up providing the difference in the game. Didn’t have a single run of longer than 9 yds and ended up with less than 220 total yds.

Tennessee: C
Once again, the Vols D played well – at times – and actually had the Vols down only 6 at the beginning of the 4th. Eventually though, they just couldn’t get off the field. Not that the offense did that much when they were on the field. Stephens again showed signs of life under center, but 1 rushing yd is inexcusable.

Vanderbilt: D+
Met its match against a well-disciplined MSU team that didn’t give Vandy the game. VU mustered only 107 yds of offense against the Bulldogs. The Defense was good – holding MSU to 247 yds – but it wasn’t enough. Offense was forced to deal with a full football field most of the day and that spelled trouble.

LSU:D
Walked into a buzzsaw in the Swamp and just got obliterated. Lee looked shaky under center. Thought they were making a move with bookend TD drives around halftime, but then more of the same. This may help them in the long run, but for now… yikes.

Auburn: F
How much explanation does this one really need? Their offensive struggles are old hat now, but their defense gave up more than 400 yds to an Arkansas team that was averaging just over 300 yds. Made some nice plays on special teams or they would have gotten an “I” for incomplete.

SEC Power Poll Roundtable #2 Responses

2008-10-13T10:34:00.000-07:00

What's your prediction for the matchup in the SEC championship game, and has that changed at all from what you were predicting in the preseason?

Right now, I’ve gotta say it’s going to be Florida and LSU in Atlanta in early December, which is different than the Auburn/Florida matchup I saw in the preseason.

In the Eastern Division, Vanderbilt sits atop the standings now, but I don’t see any chance they’re there at the end of the season. Florida seems to have righted their ship with a resounding victory over LSU Saturday night. Georgia is certainly not out of the mix, but they’ve been less than impressive in consecutive games against Alabama nad Tennessee. South Carolina already has 3 conference losses. Kentucky is in the early stages of a losing streak. Tennessee sucks.

In the Western Division, I didn’t expect the Tony Franklin experiment to run like a well-oiled machine this season, but I certainly didn’t expect the disaster that has been the 2008 Auburn offense. LSU seems to have barely missed a beat from last season and are thriving without Ryan Perrilloux’s antics. It’s obvious that Mississippi State and Arkansas would struggle to win the Sun Belt this year and Ole Miss just doesn’t have the horses this year. The West will comedown to the mid-November showdown between Alabama and LSU, but at this point, I give that edge to LSU.

If your team has Vanderbilt coming up at some point on its schedule, are you worried? If not, which team should be the most worried?

Any team that plays Vanderbilt should be worried, but if I’m Phil Fulmer I’m petrified. The natives are growing restless in Knoxville as the Vols have been anemic on offense all season long. The Commodores are not a powerhouse themselves, but are as opportunistic a team as there’s been in several years. They lead the country in turnover margin and capitalize on the short fields their opponents give them.

Holding onto the ball has not been the Vols’ strong point this season. As they’ve lost it 10 times already. Mississippi State beat the Dores by not beating themselves. If you can force Vanderbilt to drive the field to score, you’re in very good shape as VU still ranks last in the conference in total offense by a long shot.

If the Vols were to lose that game to Vanderbilt, it would – in all likelihood – wrap up a losing season for UT. That would not be good for Fulmer’s job security, what little there is left.

Other than perhaps Alabama's season-opening win over Clemson, the SEC doesn't really have any marquee non-conference wins thus far, and a couple of traditional powers (Auburn and Tennessee) are struggling in high-profile fashion. Is it too early to call this a "down year" for the conference?

That depends completely on your definition of the word “down”. The SEC is not as strong as it was last year, which was certainly one of the most impressive bodies of work in recent memory. As usual, the SEC lost a lot to the NFL draft and that’s taken its toll on the league offensively this year. There’s yet to be that 3rd QB to step up as a reliable option behind Stafford and Tebow. JPW and Jevan Snead have both shown signs, but Snead is a turnover waiting to happen and JPW will follow up a 250 yd game with a 75 yd game.

Defensively, the SEC is as strong as ever. The numbers will be somewhat inflated this year because of the stagnant offenses, but come bowl season, the defenses and team speed will again shine through.

It’s a testament to the standards of SEC fans to talk about this year as a potential “down year”. As of Week 7, the SEC has 2 teams in the AP Top5, 3 in the Top10, and 5 in the top 25. Only the Big 12 has more with 6.

So sure, go ahead and call it a “down year” for the SEC if you must, but don’t call it a bad one. A couple of high profile programs are immersed in a season of FAIL, but Vanderbilt nearly cracked the Top 10 and Ole Miss has already matched its win total from last year, so there are positives as well. I fully expect another success bowl season this year as well.

My SEC Power Poll Ballot, Week 7

2008-10-13T08:37:00.000-07:00

Another crazy weekend in the SEC. Shakeups in the rankings at the top and bottom. With MSU and Arkansas both springing upsets, Tennessee remains the only team in conference without a win against a BCS foe.

1. Alabama
With wins over Clemson and Georgia, the Tide has accomplished more than Texas has this season and should be the #1 team in the country, not just the SEC.
2. Florida
I have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as Tebow did against LSU. And I’ve never seen someone push the rest of the team as hard as Tebow pushed everybody against LSU.
3. Georgia
Got a much needed win against Tennessee, but didn’t make it look easy. Will need to play better as UT was last gimme on the schedule.
4. LSU
The wheels came off for LSU early in the Swamp and they never recovered. Still control their own destiny in West, but have to bounce back from this one.
5. South Carolina
Second straight road conference win puts Gamecocks back in favorable position, but must face an angry LSU team this weekend.
6. Vanderbilt
Statistics finally caught up to the ‘Dores last weekend. With meat of schedule coming up, 5-0 could very quickly turn into 6-6.
7. Kentucky
One step ahead of Vanderbilt when it comes to returning to reality. Need to beat Arkansas this weekend to keep bowl hopes alive.
8. Ole Miss
Had an extra weekend to prepare for trip to Alabama this weekend. Nutt will need to work his motivational magic if the Rebels are going to pull that one off.
9. Mississippi State
Good win for the Bulldogs Saturday. The offense held on to the ball and the defense held Vandy to basically nothing. Laid the successful blueprint for Vandy – Don’t beat yourself.
10. Arkansas
Dealt Auburn fans (and Tuberville) as painful a loss as they could imagine. Not surprisingly, the defense held AU in check, but the offensive numbers Arkansas put up were astonishing.
11. Auburn
Spiraling out of control. Ensminger in a very uncomfortable position, like the backseat of a Volkswagen.
12. Tennessee
Kept the game with UGA much closer than it should have been, but as only team in league without a BCS win, the Vols are now the official cellar-dwellers.

Saturday night ramblings

2008-10-11T18:06:00.000-07:00

Now, it could just be the 60 Minute IPA talking, but:

* Tommy Bowden's probably on CareerBuilder.com right now. He's all but toast. ***UPDATE 10/13/08: I told you so. Maybe he should have taken the Arkansas job. He'd at least have an excuse for why his team sucked this year.***

* Was this the dawning of the Stephen Garcia era in Columbia? No way the Gamecocks win that game today if they have to rely on Smelley for 60 minutes. Brings up (even more) real questions about the Ole Miss secondary Smelley shredded last weekend.

* As for Kentucky, the 4-0 ride was fun while it lasted. They'll beat Arkansas next weekend, but that 6th win will be tough to come by. If they get down and have to throw the ball to win, they're not much of a threat.

* Nice win for Croom and MSU today. He and Nutt always seems to be good for knocking off a ranked team each season.

* 107 total yards. That's all Vanderbilt could muster against a MSU defense that came in ranked 9th in conference, allowing 332 ypg. Mississippi State followed the right blueprint for beating the 'Dores: Hang on to the ball, do the little things right, and make VU move the ball to beat you.

* I'm sure Tuberville would rather have lost 99-0 in in the Iron Bowl than have lost to Bobby Petrino and Arkansas today. Things are about to get ugly on the Plains.

* Can you really even count this as a signature win for Petrino? Yes it was over a ranked team on the road, but that'd be like counting UCLA's season-opening victory over #18 Tennessee as a signature win. Just because you're ranked doesn't mean you don't suck.

* Georgia righted itself today but I still can't say I'm blown away watching them. Their receivers drop too many easy balls.

* Eric Berry is awesome.

* The lead on the AP recap of the UT/UGA game on UT's official says:

Georgia is back on track for another SEC title chase, and it's not too early to rule Tennessee out of the race.

The Vols showed some signs of life with Stephens under center, but no doubt about it: They're no longer relevant this season

* Did Tracy Wolfson really just Urban Meyer if he was feeling light-headed? What a random question.

* Florida looks scary good tonight.

* Speaking of "scary", not a good week for The Dead Guy in ESPN's College Pick 'em

Week 7 Picks

2008-10-08T18:44:00.000-07:00

Saturday
South Carolina (4-2, 1-2) @ Kentucky (4-1, 0-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: South Carolina 12-6-1
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -1

This series has not gone well for UK lately as the Gamecocks have claimed the last 8 meetings. Most meetings have been close – 4 of last 6 decided by a TD or less – but SC seems to always manage to pull this one out. UK is also 0-15 against a Spurrier-coached team.

Last year, both of these teams were ranked when they squared off on a Thursday night. This year, both are still trying to identify who they are. The ‘Cats feasted on a diet of cupcakes early on while the Gamecocks have been up and down from game to game. They’re currently as “up” as they’ve been, coming off a nice road win in Oxford where the long-dormant passing game suddenly awoke.

This certainly has the makings of one of the most competitive SEC games of the season. Neither team is great, certainly, but they are evenly matched. Both rely heavily on a strong defense as neither offense has been consistent this year (USC ranks 6th in the conference in total offense, UK 8th).

Last year, SC DE Norwood busted onto the national scene returning two fumbles for TDs in the Cocks’ win. It’s certainly not out of the question that there could be a defensive score in this game as well. With neither team particulary effective running the ball, the game will boil down to USC’s play under center. If the Gamecocks get the same kind of production they got last week in Oxford, they’ll roll to a victory. If they get the kind of play they had against Vanderbilt in Week 2, Kentucky will steal one.

When it’s all said and done, look for Spurrier to continue his mastery of the ‘Cats and SC wins a close one.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

(#13, #14)Vanderbilt (5-0, 3-0) @ Mississippi State (1-4, 0-2)
1:30 CDT, No TV
All-Time Series: Mississippi State 10-7-2
Wednesday’s Line: Vanderbilt -2.5

The Commodores will be looking to start a season 4-0 in SEC play for the first time in program history, and the 4-game win streak would also match the longest SEC winning streak in program history. Starkville has never been kind to VU though, as the ‘Dores are just 1-6 through the years. They lost 5 straight there by and average of 27 ppg.

They won’t have to worry about that this year as neither team will approach 27 points. Like the UK/SC game, this is set up to be a very competitive, probably low-scoring game. Neither team is particularly effective offensively, and that won’t change this weekend against the others’ soft defenses. Mississippi State is going to pound the ball with a power-run game and not abandon it like Auburn did last week.

This game has upset written all over it. The Bulldogs are desperate for a win and the ‘Dores are coming off the biggest home game in recent memory and are truly in uncharted waters as a program. If this were last year’s MSU team, it would be a no-brainer, but the luck that followed the Bullies last year has gone. Neither of these teams is very good offensively, but the Bulldogs turn the ball over more than Vandy does, and that plays right into VU’s hands. It’s a good thing this game isn’t on TV, because – much like last week’s AU/VU game – this will be ugly.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one 100 times, but I just get the feeling that MSU pulls this one out. Croom always seems to pull one out of his… um, hat, and this seems like the perfect candidate in 2008.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: Mississippi State

Tennessee (2-3, 0-2) @ (#10, #10)Georgia (4-1, 1-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Tennessee 20-15-2
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -12

This marks the 2nd straight year UT has been unranked when it faces UGA, although the Vols have taken 3 of the last 4, including the last 2 by a combined 39 points. The visitors have won 4 of the last 5 and UT is 8-5 Between the Hedges. Overall, Fulmer sports an 11-5 record against the ‘Dawgs.

If UT wants to remain relevant for the rest of this season, they’ve got to continue the recent trend of visitors’ victories in this series. QB Nick Stephens will get another start under center for the Vols. He was effective against NIU, but nothing more. That’s certainly more than Crompton had been in earlier games though.

Unfortunately for the Vols, they’ll be dealing with a UGA team that’s had 14 days to simmer and stew over being embarrassed on national TV by Alabama. With Vandy sitting 3-0 in conference, the ‘Dawgs know they can’t afford to lose any more ground. They’ll welcome back human battering ram Brannan Southerland as well. The Vols have (statistically) the toughest defense in conference to move the ball against, allowing just 244.4 ypg, 3.9 ypp, but Moreno should find more room to run than he did against Bama, particularly with Southerland’s return.

It’s been ugly for the Vols this season and it could get even uglier Saturday afternoon. They just don’t have the offensive power to hang with UGA for 60 minutes. While I don’t think it’ll be the outright skull-dragging many are predicting, there’s no reason to think this won’t be a nice, comfortable conference win for the ‘Dawgs.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Arkansas (2-3, 0-2) @ (#20, #23)Auburn (4-2, 2-2)
4:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Auburn 10-6-1
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -18.5

As if the Tuberville/Petrino melodrama weren’t intrigue enough, Tony Franklin’s firing makes this game a little more interesting. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 5, though the road team has won the last 3 and 5 of the last 6. Tuberville surely has been dreaming of Jason Campbell handing off to Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams and pounding the Hogs into oblivion. He’s certainly not a Bobby Petrino fan.

The Hogs are coming off their best 3 quarter game of the season last week against Florida. They fell apart in the 4th and wound up on the wrong end of another blowout, but looked like a legitimate football team – at least defensively – before that. They’ll ride RB Michael Smith as far as he can take them, but against an AU defense that’s surrendering just 11.7 ppg and 248.8 ypg, hard to imagine that would be very far.

Who knows how AU’s offense will function this weekend against Arkansas? Even if it’s not a well-oiled machine, you’ve got to believe it will operate better than Arkansas’ has. Plus, I’ll take a chip-on-his-shoulder Tommy Tuberville over Petrino any day of the week, particularly on a Saturday gameday with these two defenses in play as well. Auburn wins this one comfortably, though 18.5 points may be a bit much to ask.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Arkansas

(#4, #3)LSU (4-0, 2-0) @ (#11, #12)Florida (4-1, 2-1)
7:00 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Florida 28-23-3
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -6

This is one of the biggest game nationally Friday, and certainly the highest profile conference game since Alabama/Georgia a couple of weeks ago. LSU has won 3 of the last 4. The home team has won the last 3, but the road team won the previous 4.

This is a statement game for both programs. The Tigers have been impressive against a less than stellar schedule while the Gators have struggled moving the ball at times this season, though still lead the league in ppg. LSU ranks 2nd, just ½ a point behind them. It also pits a couple of coaches under comparison by ESPN’s Chris Low.

Florida doesn’t seem right to me at this stage of the season. The defense is certainly better than last year, but the offense has shown some signs of vulnerability. LSU is going to win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball and cause a lot of trouble for the Gators. I look for LSU to go to the Swamp and hand Florida its 2nd consecutive SEC home loss.

Straight Up Winner: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

Tony Franklin Fired

2008-10-08T13:56:00.000-07:00

Tony Franklin has been relieved of his duties in Auburn. So apparently Tuberville really does just want to line up in the Power I and just smash some people.

If Franklin was going to be axed during the season, this was the obvious choice of weeks to do it. There's this weekend's showdown with "Backstabbin' Bobby" and then an off weekend next week, giving the Tigers 2 full weeks to prepare for their next legitimate competition, a Thursday night showdown at West Virginia. Seems like Tommy wants to make a statement to Petrino, basically saying he can fire his OC a few days ahead of the game and still win.

Week 6 SEC Power Poll

2008-10-08T07:30:00.001-07:00

Just as everyone predicted preseason, at basically the midway point of the season, Alabama is still holding on to the top spot and Vanderbilt has crept its way into the top 4, slightly ahead of Florida. With 5 conference games this weekend, things could change significantly this weekend.

To read all the snarky wittiness - or is it the witty snarkiness? - check out Garnet and Black Attack.

My Week 6 SEC Power Poll Ballot

2008-10-07T13:00:00.000-07:00

Week 6 has come and gone and the Tide still sit atop the standings. This weekend's Kentucky/South Carolina game will really help sort those two out.

1. Alabama – The Tide hold on to the top spot despite a subpar performance this past weekend. Got the job done, but much closer than it should’ve been.
2. LSU – We’ll know a lot more about the Bayou Bengals this weekend after a tussle with Florida. For now though, no reason to not rank the defending national champs #2 in conference.
3. Georgia – World’s largest hobnail boot expected to be sighted between the hedges in Athens at this weekend’s game against Tennessee.
4. Florida – A week off to lick their wounds and try to get a consistent offense going. Something seems amiss among the Gators.
5. Vanderbilt – Call me a cynic, but I’m still not convinced the ‘Dores are that great. You can’t argue with 5-0, 3-0 in conference though.
6. Kentucky – Good effort for the last 3 quarters in the Cats’ first real game since August. Like Vanderbilt, not sure where to rank them. Saturday’s game against SC will help.
7. South Carolina – Not sure where that QB play came from, but the #5 spot is theirs the taking if it continues. Offensive line did a great job nullifying the OM pass rush.
8. Ole Miss – Note to Rebels: Turnovers kill. Ole Miss could be 5-1 or even 6-0 if not for consistently shooting themselves in the collective foot.
9. Auburn – I know Tuberville says he’s not panicking, but his players and staff aren’t figuring anything out. Auburn is just ugly on offense.
10. Tennessee – Think Cutcliffe is missed? A 4-point win over a bad MAC team has given Vols fans new hope for the season because the new QB threw for 156 yds.
11. Mississippi State – The defense enjoyed their off weekend. The offense has taken every weekend off since August 30.
12. Arkansas – Last week, the defense scored a TD. This time, it was the offense. If they could ever put it together for one game, they’d only lose by 20.

Week 6 Grades

2008-10-06T20:20:00.000-07:00

South Carolina: A
This is how Gamecock fans have been waiting to see a Spurrier-coached SC team play. Out of nowhere, QB Smelley throws for 330+ yds and the reliable defense held the Rebels to just 3 points in the 2nd half and took advantage of the 3 OM miscues. Easily their best effort of the season.

Vanderbilt: A-
Another one of those headscratchers that Vanderbilt has mastered this year. Actually outgained an SEC opponent for the first time this year, though against this year’s Auburn team, that’s not saying much.

Arkansas: B+
The Hogs were actually competitive for 3 quarters which is more than they can say about their recent games. This is certainly Petrino’s first moral victory to go along with his 2 moral defeats he opened the season with. I’m not sure how much better the Hogs could have played in this one.

Kentucky: B+
Went toe-to-toe with the #2 Tide in a ridiculously lopsided rivalry and nearly walked out with a victory. This weekend’s game with South Carolina will be a better indicator of how good UK is than this game was.

Florida: B
On the plus side, they rolled up 500+ yds of offense and held the Hogs to 7 points. But they also committed 12 penalties and didn’t put the game away until the 4th. Probably looking ahead to the big showdown with LSU.

Alabama: C
Came out and smacked UK in the mouth in the 1st quarter, then really didn’t do much else the rest of the game. While some of that goes to an inspired effort by the ‘Cats D, a lot of it is on the Tide. The penalties – 10 for 92 yds – were very surprising, as one of the trademarks of this team has been discipline.

Ole Miss: C-
The game started out as well as possible for the Rebels, up 14-3 after the 1st quarter. After that, the turnovers came out, which has been an all-too-familiar theme for OM this year. The offense went stagnant in the 2nd half and the vulnerable secondary was torched by Chris Smelley. Not a very strong effort following last week’s big win.

Tennessee: D-
Yea, the Vols beat Northern Illinois by 4. They had 9 first downs and less than 230 yds of offense. If not for an above average defense, the Vols would be Arkansas.

Auburn: F
Just an ugly, ugly game from Auburn. It’s not even worth the effort to come up with different words to describe that “offense”. And missing a PAT is icing on the cake.

Week 6 Picks

2008-10-01T08:50:00.000-07:00

Saturday
(#12,#13)Florida (3-1, 1-1) @ Arkansas (2-2, 0-1)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All-Time Series: Florida 6-1
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -25

This will be the first meeting between UF and Arkansas since the 2006 SEC Championship game. Arkansas won the first meeting ever between these two teams in the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl, but has lost the last 6, including 2 SEC Championship games.

This one won’t be much of a game. Florida is coming off an upset loss to Ole Miss while the Hogs are coming off another thrashing, this time at the hands of Texas. The Razorbacks rank 65th in the country in total defense and 74th in total offense. While the Gators gain only a few more yards than they Hogs – 71st nationally – they score more than 15 more than the Hogs do. Their defense – 7th in the nation – is also significantly better.

Any disillusions Razorback fans had that this wasn’t a rebuilding year have gone up in flames the last two weeks that saw Arkansas outscored 101-25. A re-focused Gator team can all but name their score in this one.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2) @ Ole Miss (3-2, 1-1)
1:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: Ole Miss 8-5
Wednesday’s Line: Ole Miss -2.5

Like the Florida/Arkansas series, this is one of those random East/West matches that only happens every few years. The Rebels have won 5 in a row against South Carolina, including all 4 meetings since the ‘Cocks joined the SEC in 1992. Current Ole Miss DC Tyrone Nix was at South Carolina last year.

Last year, when Nutt was at Arkansas, the Razorbacks slashed USC for 542 rushing yds behind McFadden’s 321 yds and Jones’ 166. This year, Nutt is at the helm of a much more balanced offense that showed equal parts big-play capability and mind-boggling inconsistency last week in the big win against Florida. Unlike last year though, SC’s defense is still healthy and leads the nation in total defense, allowing a paltry 221.4 ypg.

Spurrier is hoping that QB Garcia can bring a little spark to the stagnant Gamecock offense. While the D has been solid, the offense ranks 79th in total offense and 90th in scoring offense. He played well in spurts last year, but hasn’t proven to be a consistent performer yet. He’ll need to use his legs a lot on Saturday escaping the OM pass rush that bothered Tebow so much last week.

Nutt feels last week’s game was a turning point for the Rebels. As losers of nine straight SEC games, no one there “knew how to win”. They’re slight favorites in this game and the defensive line will only be healthier and more in rhythm than last week, when they controlled the line of scrimmage from the beginning. If they can avoid the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, they’ll actually have an SEC winning streak.

Straight Up Winner: Ole Miss
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Kentucky (4-0, 0-0) @ (#2, #4)Alabama (5-0, 2-0)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All-Time Series: Alabama 33-2-1
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -16.5

One of the most lopsided series in college football resumes this weekend when unbeaten Kentucky travels to Tuscaloosa to tangle with unbeaten Alabama. The ‘Cats are 0-8 in Tuscaloosa and haven’t beat UAT since 1997. UK’s other win in the series came in 1922.

While the ‘Cats have played 3 cupcakes and 1 pseudo-cupcake, they have looked impressive, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They currently rank 4th in the country, giving up just 227.3 ypg. The offense has been spotty at times, but seemed to hit its stride a bit last week against WKU.

Meanwhile, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule and has compiled the most complete body of work so far this season of any team in the country. They’re certainly due for a letdown this week after the annihilation of UGA last week, but the Tide is too sound fundamentally to lose this game. They lead the SEC in scoring and have given up just 20 more ypg than UK has, despite playing a much tougher schedule.

While this certainly isn’t a make or break game for UK, it certainly is a chance to legitimize their 4-0 record. While they won’t win the game, I do think they’ll keep it close enough to cover. Alabama is 17 points better than Kentucky most days, but as the Tide showed against Tulane, they’re not immune to a bit of a hangover. The Tide may need a special teams or defensive play to spark them, but they’ll move to 6-0.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Kentucky

(#13, #14)Auburn (4-1, 2-1) @ (#19, #19)Vanderbilt (4-0, 2-0)
5:00 CDT, ESPN
All-Time Series: Auburn 20-19-1
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -4.5

Auburn has won 13 straight in this series, which surprising gives them just a 1-game lead in the all-time series. The Tigers have rarely struggled in that streak, averaging 36.4 ppg and holding VU to 10 pts or less in 9 of the 13 games. Obviously, this weekend’s showdown presents a unique set of circumstances as they’d have to play 3 times for Auburn to reach 36 points.

Hmm… how to say it… Both of these teams are horrid offensively. Auburn ranks 90th in the country with 329.4 ypg and Vanderbilt ranks 112th at 282.8 ypg. Where the big difference lies on the defensive side of the ball. Auburn ranks 11th in the country, surrendering only 246 ypg. Vandy ranks last in the SEC and 73rd in the country giving up 364 ypg. Both defenses should improve their standings this weekend.

This is a chance for Vanderbilt to prove to everyone it belongs on the national scene. GameDay will be in town, it’s a national, primetime broadcast, and this has to be the smallest line on a Vanderbilt/Auburn game in recent memory. Unfortunately for the ‘Dores, this is the type of situation in which they typically fold.

I don’t see how the ‘Dores will move the ball against Auburn’s defense. If the Auburn offense can stay out the way of itself and let the defense win the game, the Tigers will be fine. They’ll have to take better care of the ball, as VU sports the most opportunistic defense in the country as they are currently rising a ridiculous +9 TO margin through just 4 games. South Carolina and Ole Miss seemed to make consistently bad decisions and spoonfed the Commodores TOs. It’s hard to take Auburn on the road against anybody at this point, but it’s even harder to imagine Vandy scoring much against the Tiger D.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Tennessee (1-3, 0-2)
6:00 CDT, PPV
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Tennessee -15.5

This will be Fulmer’s first tangle with a MAC opponent as head coach at Tennessee and it couldn’t come at a better time… so long as the Vols win, which is hardly a given regardless of the opponent. UNI has outscored its last two opponents 85-3. While the competition has been weak – Indiana State and Eastern Michigan – those are still gaudy numbers. This is the same program that beat then #21 Alabama in 2003 though, so the Vols will have to be ready to play. As bad as UT has been this year, they can’t afford to take anyone lightly.

My guess is the game goes something like this: Tennessee struggles, fans boo, UNI gets an early lead, fans boo some more, ponder how much it’ll take to bring Lane Kiffin in for the 2009 season, Tennessee’s defense makes a play or two, the Vols win by 10. It’ll be ugly, but a 2nd win for the Vols.

Straight Up Winner: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Northern Illinois

Week 5 SEC Power Poll

2008-10-01T05:51:00.000-07:00

No surprise that there's a new #1 team this week. The Tide was dominant in dismantling the 'Dawgs and rode that victory to a #2 ranking in the AP Poll. Meanwhile, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Arkansas strengthened their grips on the bottom spots.

For all the witty and insightful comments, check out Garnet And Black Attack.

2008 Scoring Averages

2008-09-29T19:54:00.000-07:00

Last year, one of the big storylines throughout the season was the ridiculous scoring numbers a lot of the teams put up. This year's numbers are down 8.44% from last year though. Only a handful of teams - Alabama, Georgia, and Florida - returned experienced QBs and - not surprisingly - they rank 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the league in scoring. LSU and Kentucky round out the top 5, but aside from LSU's game against Auburn, neither has played anyone worth mentioning.

Notes:
* Only 4 teams - Ole Miss, Vandy, Alabama, and Georgia - are scoring more than last year. As everyone faces mostly SEC defenses the rest of the season, that could actually drop to 3.

* Ole Miss has upped their scoring average more than 50% over last year. I guess that's what happens when Ed Orgeron is no longer in charge of game planning.

* Both Tennessee and Arkansas are down more than 40% from last year. Everyone knew Arkansas would be bad, but I don't think many knew UT would be this useless on offense. Sure there's an adjustment period with a new QB and a new OC, but with the talent that shows up in Knoxville every year, that's inexcusable.

* When Tuberville instituted the spread, I don't think he anticipated scoring 18.2% less than Auburn did last year. Unless something changes, this'll be the third straight year for a scoring decrease for the Tigers.

* Unless Stephen Garcia can really get things going, this will be the second straight year that the Gamecocks' PPG decreases

My Week 5 SEC Power Poll Ballot

2008-09-29T17:40:00.000-07:00

What a crazy weekend of SEC football. Here's how I see it after 5 weeks:

1.Alabama – Systematically picked apart the ‘Dawgs in as dominant a half of football as you’ll ever see. Let up in the second half, but if they stay as fundamentally strong as they have been, they’ll be in the BCS.
2. LSU – Almost fell victim to the trap game against MSU last weekend, but rode Charles Scott to victory. Off this weekend before heading down to the Swamp.
3. Georgia – you knew the penalties would bite them in a big game at some point. Negating the turnover on Alabama’s first drive of the game set the stage for an ugly, ugly game for the ‘Dawgs.
4. Florida – Offense was sloppy and defense played well except for a handful of breakdowns that resulted in big plays for OM. Instead of complaining that the PAT block was illegal, Urban needs to work on technique with his linemen.
5. Vanderbilt – They’re 4-0, ranked for consecutive weeks, and hosting GameDay. These aren’t your father’s ‘Dores. Or even your ‘Dores.
6. Ole Miss – Lose at home to Vandy, then beat Florida in the Swamp. Rebels, welcome to the Houston Nutt era.
7. Auburn – It’s a damn good thing AU’s defense is so good.
8. Kentucky – Impressive again against a nobody, but real questions will be answered Saturday when they head to Tuscaloosa.
9. South Carolina – The Stephen Garcia era begins Saturday in Oxford. Whether it’s enough to turn their conference season around remains to be seen.
10. Tennessee – The Vols are bad. No two ways about it.
11. Mississippi State – Saturday night was a real State of the Union Game for the Bulldogs. Their best offensive effort of the season wasn’t enough to beat a completely disinterested LSU team. MSU is destined for 1-7 this season in conference.
12. Arkansas – On the bright side, the defense scored a TD. Now they get to deal with an angry Gators team. Life in the SEC’s grand, ain’t it Bobby?

Week 5 Grades

2008-09-28T12:50:00.000-07:00

Alabama: A+
Aside from a blip against Tulane, the Tide have been the league's most consistent team this season. Thoroughly dominated UGA from opening kick, though 11-point margin may say otherwise, this game was never close.

Ole Miss: A-
Forced UF into their first three TOs of the year and took full advantage of it. That defensive line is going to bother a lot of teams the rest of the year. Tebow may have seen Greg Hardy in his sleep last night.

Kentucky: B+
The 'Cats blew out another patsy last night, holding WKU to 8 FDs and 157 total yds. The offense seemed a bit more in sync as well, particularly under center. They'll be catching Alabama at a good time next weekend.

Mississippi State: B
Even MSU's best offensive effort of the year wasn't enough to beat a sleepwalking LSU team. You know your team isn't thought of very highly when this is the headline to your recap. Last night's effort at least gives a shimmer of hope for future games.

South Carolina: B-
UAB is horrid and, while the Gamecocks won, hard to say it was impressive. Stephen Garcia probably did enough to earn the starting job for next week's tussle with Ole Miss, but I don't know that he's the answer to the Gamecocks' offensive woes.

LSU: C
Sleepwalked through last night's game and still won, though not by as much as they should've. Charles Scott continues to impress.

Tennessee: C
Hard to even watch the AU/UT. Two bad offenses on display, headed by the Orange and White. The Vols couldn't even get 200 yds of offense on the books. Defense played much better, but Auburn's offense tends to do that to teams.

Auburn: C-
Another day, another game where the defense bails the offense out. Worse grade than Tennessee because they're better than the Vols and should win that game by more than 2 points. Gotta figure Kodi Burns is the guy for that offense...

Florida: C-
Picked a bad day to turn the ball over three times as a hungry OM team stunned them in the Swamp. Tebow was off on a couple of seemingly easy throws and even apologized to the Gator Nation after the game. But it wasn't him who missed tackle after tackle on the Rebels' big plays yesterday.

Arkansas: D
Basically the only thing that saved them an "F" is the fact they're horrible and would probably get beat by close to 42 points each time if they played Texas 100 times.

Georgia: F
The winning margin is deceiving. Alabama dominated this game from the opening drive. They exposed UGA' OL and DL as soft and capitalized on the 'Dawgs' tendencies to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties. UGA looked scared and timid and completely lost.

Thoughts from a crazy Saturday

2008-09-27T18:58:00.001-07:00

This may just be the Fat Tire talking, but:

* When healthy, Ole Miss may have the best defensive line in the SEC. They ended up with 7 TFL this afternoon and basically wore Tebow's jersey for him all day long.

* Urban Meyer is a very good coach, so far be it from me to question him, but that last possession seems like it could have been handled significantly better.

* Houston Nutt may not be the best Xs and Os guy in the world, but the man can motivate his players. He's won 2 road games at top 5 opponents in his last 6 games coaching.

* It's a damn good thing Auburn's defense is so good.

* Things are getting ugly in Knoxville. Barring a remarkable turnaround, I don't see how Fulmer's back next year. Even with last year's extension, the natives are getting a wee bit restless.

* No way Tommy Bowden is back at Clemson either.

* Arkansas is just plain bad. Any game they win the rest of the year is an upset.

* South Carolina won again, but only put up 6 points in the 2nd half against a UAB team that was shredded by the otherwise inept Tennessee offense. Garcia played well at times, but you gotta believe that more points should've been put on the board.

* Georgia really was going to a motherfarking funeral.

* Georgia's receivers drop the easy balls and make the spectacular catch. It's uncanny.

* Alabama's getting my #1 vote in next week's SEC Power Poll.

* How much money did Croom pay Bob Davie to continually wax poetic about what a great coach Woody McCorvey is?

* LSU's disinterest and lack of effort in tonight's game cost them some "style points" later on in the season.

Incredible Catch

2008-09-25T09:14:00.000-07:00

Who knew that Winston-Salem State and Morgan State would provide one of the most amazing receptions you'll ever see. Edwin Baptiste is a BMF. Nothing else to say about it. Just watch.

Sylvester Croom's gmail account

2008-09-25T07:07:00.001-07:00

Ever wondered what's in Sylvester Croom's gmail account? Take a look.

Click on picture for full size

See Bobby Petrino, Houston Nutt, Tommy Tuberville, and Phil Fulmer here.

Week 5 Picks

2008-09-24T06:34:00.000-07:00

A few snoozers this weekend, but the evening will be capped off with a matchup of Top 10 teams Between the Hedges in Athens. UT and Auburn play a game in which the loser is pretty much relegated to divisional-irrelevance for the remainder of the season.

Off this weekend: Vanderbilt

Saturday
Ole Miss (2-2, 0-1) @ (#4,#4)Florida (3-0, 1-0)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All Time Series: Ole Miss 11-10-1
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -22.5

This was a surprisingly close game last year, with the gators escaping Oxford with a mere 6-point win. This year, the Gators aren’t putting up the same gaudy offensive numbers they were last year, but neither are their opponents. The Gators currently rank 2nd nationally in scoring D (6.3 ppg) and 5th in total D (21.3 ypg). The Rebels have a better offense than any of the prior Gator opponents, so the D will be tested again.

OM is coming off a head-shaking loss to Vandy in which they barely gave up 200 yds of offense, but repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with 6 TOs. They scored their only TDs on a fumble recovery and kickoff return, so the offense must be chomping at the bit to get back onto the field. The Gators also scored while their offense was resting last week as they returned another punt for a TD, as UF basically toyed with Tennessee in yet another rout.

Last year, OM basically shut down everyone except Tebow, who became a man show late in the game. This year, the Gators’ more balanced offense presents a different set of challenges, but the finally whole OM DL will be ready. They’ll need to limit their own turnovers and force UF’s first turnover of the season or it will be a long day in the Swamp. Finding ways to slow down Percy Harvin will be difficult as well.

The Rebels actually lead the series in Gainesville 5-3-1. While I don’t think the Rebels have enough to win this game, I do think that 3+ TDs is too much for Florida to give. Nutt is a master motivator and the Rebels will knock off somebody this year, I just don’t think it’ll be the Gators this weekend. UF wins by 14-17, sending OM to its 10th straight SEC loss.

Straight Up: Florida
Against the Spread: Ole Miss

Tennessee (1-2, 0-1) @ (#15,#16)Auburn (3-1, 1-1)
2:30 CDT, CBS
All Time Series: Auburn 25-21-3
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -6.5

This is the first meeting since Auburn’s 38-28 win in the 2004 SEC Championship game. The Tigers are 6-2-1 on the Plains against the Vols. The Vols have won 12 straight games the week after Florida while the Tigers have won 7 in row following LSU. Something’s got to give.

After a dismal performance against MSU a couple of weeks ago, the AU passing game got moving Saturday night against LSU. On the flip side, the Tigers averaged just 1.9 ypc, which is about half what they averaged against MSU (3.6 ypc).While they’re obviously still working out some kinks, that’s got to be a disturbing trend for Tuberville and his staff. The Vols have been strong against the run this year, ranking 26th in the country in Rush D giving up just 95 ypg and holding opponents to a 2.96 ypc average.

Both teams have struggled offensively. UT ranks 73rd in total offense (355.3 ypg) and is facing AU’s 20th ranked defense (259.8 ypg). Auburn ranks 55th in total offense (390.7 ypg) and is facing the Vols’ 22nd ranked defense (268.7 ypg). Turnovers have been a problem for both teams – 10 for AU, 7 for UT – so the team that handles that aspect will be at a decided advantage.

This one’s going to come down to the coaching, and you’d be hard-pressed to convince me to take Fulmer over Tuberville in this game. AU has a distinct special teams advantage in this one and will be working with a shorter field. While this one may be an ugly turnover fest, I gotta believe that at home, AU is a full TD better than UT.

Straight Up: Auburn
Against the Spread: Auburn

Arkansas (2-1, 0-1) @ (#7,#7)Texas(3-0)
2:30 CDT, ABC
All Time Series: Texas 55-21
Wednesday’s Line: Texas -27.5

With all the preseason talk about UGA’s schedule, lost in the shuffle was the Hogs’ brutal 4-game stretch exacerbated by Ike. The 2nd of 4 straight Top-15 games takes place in Austin this weekend. The Hogs are actually 3-1 in the last 4 meetings, but these teams haven’t played since 2004.

This one probably won’t be as ugly as the Bama beatdown from Saturday, but no reason to think the Hogs have even a puncher’s chance in this one. The Horns are scoring nearly 49 ppg so far this season while the Hogs have struggled, scoring just 23.3 ppg. Both teams move the ball efficiently – Arkansas is 46th in the country at 403ypg, Texas is 9th at 502ypg – but the Hogs sport a -6 TO margin. Also, Texas QB Colt McCoy has completed 77.8% of his passes for 833 yards and an 11/1TD/INT ratio, for a passer rating of 206.5.

I think the power of the rivalry may keep this one closer than the number. Petrino and staff will probably try to run more of a ball control offense to minimize UT’s possession time. While I don’t expect this one to be close, the Hogs’ll keep it within 4 TDs.

Straight Up: Texas
Against the Spread: Arkansas

Western Kentucky (2-2) @ Kentucky (3-0, 0-0)
6:00, PPV
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Kentucky -21.5

Surprisingly, this is the first time these two schools have met. WKU joined 1A this year and will be a member of the Sun Belt Conference next year. They also have the greatest mascot on the face of the planet.

Kentucky continues their quest of dominating all non-SEC opponents before being exposed as a very flawed team in Tuscaloosa next weekend. Until they play an actual opponent and not a cupcake, I’m not going to waste my time thinking about their games.

Straight Up: Kentucky
Against the Spread: Western Kentucky

UAB (1-3) @ South Carolina (2-2, 0-2)
6:00, PPV
All Time Series: South Carolina 1-0
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -24.5

How bad are the Blazers? In 3 games against 1A competition, they’ve been outscored 129-59. The Vols scored 31 points them. FAU averages 15.5 ppg this season, yet hung 49 on UAB. If USC can’t get rolling against these guys, they might as well pack it up and go home. Smelley and/or Garcia should have easy pickings all game long.

In a schedule front-loaded with home games (4 already), this will be another nice, easy tune up for the rest of the meatier schedule. While the Gamecocks continue to look for answers under center, the defense will have its way with the hapless Blazers. They’ll score at least once in this game and help the ‘Cocks cover the larger-than-I-wish-it-were number.

Straight Up: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Mississippi State (1-3, 0-1) @ (#5,#5)LSU (3-0, 1-0)
6:30, ESPN2
All Time Series: LSU 65-33
Wednesday’s Line: LSU -24

No point in even attempting to break this one down and try to make it interesting. Here is all you need to know: Over the last 8 years, LSU has outscored the Bulldogs 340-81 (43-10). They’ve won 15 of the last 16, including 8 straight in Tiger Stadium. MSU is currently ranked 94th out of 120 teams in total offense with just 318 ypg. LSU is ranked 18th in total defense, surrendering just 252.7 ypg.

Don’t get me wrong, MSU has a fairly serviceable D, but even it rolled over last week as Georgia Tech rolled up 500 yds of offense. Two predictions: A) MSU OC Woody McCorvey will not be reading any message boards late Saturday night and B) This is the biggest no-brainer of the week. Anything under 5 TDs would be.

Straight Up: LSU
Against the Spread: LSU

(#8,#10)Alabama (4-0, 1-0) @ (#3,#3)Georgia (4-0, 1-0)
6:45, ESPN
All Time Series: Alabama 35-25-4
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -7

Surprisingly, this is only the 6th time in 65-game history of this matchup that both teams are ranked, and only the 3rd time both are ranked in the Top 10. Alabama has lost 3 straight to UGA and hasn’t beaten the ‘Dawgs since 1995.

All eyes will be on Athens Saturday night as the Tide and the ‘Dawgs square off. Each has notched a big non-conference win and each won its conference opener, though the Tide with significantly more ease. The ‘Dawgs sport a more formidable offense, ranking 22nd in the country in ypg with 450, while the Tide ranks 57th with 387.5 ypg. The Tide is actually scoring half a point more per game (36.0 to 35.5). Each team boasts a top 25 total defense – UGA 14th at 243ypg, UAT 24th at 275ypg – as well as a top 20 scoring defense – UAT 8th at 9.3 ppg, UGA 18th at 13.8 ppg. Two of the country’s best freshman WRs will be on display as well in UGA’s AJ Green and Bama’s Julio Jones.

In the end, this game will boil down to QB play and UGA has an obvious advantage there. Both Ds will do an adequate job of at least containing the others power run game and both Stafford and JPW will be called on to convert some precarious 3rd down situations. Alabama’s youth/inexperience will also manifest itself in this one and the ‘Dawgs will capitalize. In what should be the game of the week (if not beyond), the ‘Dawgs win a tightly contested thriller, somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-21.

Straight Up: Georgia
Against the Spread: Alabama

SEC Power Poll, Week 4

2008-09-24T05:51:00.000-07:00

1. Georgia, 247 points (11 first-place votes)
2. Florida, 245 (8)
3. LSU, 232 (3)
4. Alabama, 199.5
5. Auburn, 167.5
6. Vanderbilt, 161
7. Kentucky, 111
8. Mississippi, 100
8. South Carolina, 100
10. Tennessee, 86
11. Mississippi State, 34
12. Arkansas, 33

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